But numerical judgements are no more persuasive than non-numerical ones (Aumann's agreement theorem notwithstanding) and so it's a lot of wasted effort for academic fields where persuading other experts into a shared understanding is the main point.

The Bayesian is very much that all uncertainty can be expressed mathematically and that people can train themselves to convert their intuitive judgements into probabilities that are well calibrated, I'd recommend Tetlock's work on that. And it's useful in pricing derivatives, identifying planes,etc

Lady of Mazes did a great job of engaging with that.

That is because the United States is unusual in that it isn't a nation - indeed, it is something like the opposite of a nation - which entirely rejects the 'ancestral bonds' that might make someone more or less American in favor of the bonds of citizenship.

acoup.blog/2021/07/02/c...

It was nice to get a dance in!

At least we get retrospective voting later.

Whoever wins, it is one of the most dramatic elections in Canadian history