power law trend continues. slow grind to a million
November 18, 2025 at 2:24 AM
power law trend continues. slow grind to a million
several billion in longer term leverage liquidity down to about 82k. it'll be interesting to see if the powers that be try to force us down that far to gobble up those funds. if so, they're going to be walking a fine line between their own greed and risking people losing interest going forward
November 16, 2025 at 5:06 PM
several billion in longer term leverage liquidity down to about 82k. it'll be interesting to see if the powers that be try to force us down that far to gobble up those funds. if so, they're going to be walking a fine line between their own greed and risking people losing interest going forward
after threatening the bottom of the channel it’s been in for 20 years, the US dollar index (DXY) bounced over the last month.
do you think it’s coincidence that #bitcoin hasn’t performed well over the last month? longer term, does it makes sense for the US dollar to increase in relative value?
do you think it’s coincidence that #bitcoin hasn’t performed well over the last month? longer term, does it makes sense for the US dollar to increase in relative value?
November 14, 2025 at 6:57 PM
after threatening the bottom of the channel it’s been in for 20 years, the US dollar index (DXY) bounced over the last month.
do you think it’s coincidence that #bitcoin hasn’t performed well over the last month? longer term, does it makes sense for the US dollar to increase in relative value?
do you think it’s coincidence that #bitcoin hasn’t performed well over the last month? longer term, does it makes sense for the US dollar to increase in relative value?
good bounce from the channel bottom, which is what we’d like to see. are you going to take advantage of this opportunity or are you bearish about bitcoin “crashing” all the way down to ninety-four thousand unbacked and relentlessly printed US dollars? #bitcoin
November 14, 2025 at 3:01 PM
good bounce from the channel bottom, which is what we’d like to see. are you going to take advantage of this opportunity or are you bearish about bitcoin “crashing” all the way down to ninety-four thousand unbacked and relentlessly printed US dollars? #bitcoin
it'll depend a lot on how i draw them since the first candle is an anchor point. the overall shape could be interpreted as the start of rolling over but the Logarithmic scale can cause a bit of an optical illusion. for example even though we've moved +$25k consistently, the gap between lines narrows
November 10, 2025 at 12:05 AM
it'll depend a lot on how i draw them since the first candle is an anchor point. the overall shape could be interpreted as the start of rolling over but the Logarithmic scale can cause a bit of an optical illusion. for example even though we've moved +$25k consistently, the gap between lines narrows
there hasn't been a 20%+ gain since july. showing how volatility has decreased over time, we're currently in the 2nd biggest lull since 2016, with the prior biggest lull being august 2022 to january 2023.
this isn't what precedes a bear market. the bull market finale is still yet to come. #bitcoin
this isn't what precedes a bear market. the bull market finale is still yet to come. #bitcoin
November 8, 2025 at 7:20 AM
there hasn't been a 20%+ gain since july. showing how volatility has decreased over time, we're currently in the 2nd biggest lull since 2016, with the prior biggest lull being august 2022 to january 2023.
this isn't what precedes a bear market. the bull market finale is still yet to come. #bitcoin
this isn't what precedes a bear market. the bull market finale is still yet to come. #bitcoin
finally able to add our first -20% line since april. similar to other bull runs, we've gone very long stretches between big drops. #bitcoin
November 8, 2025 at 7:14 AM
finally able to add our first -20% line since april. similar to other bull runs, we've gone very long stretches between big drops. #bitcoin
seemingly still following the same trend from 2023. sideways and down until we don't, and ultimately up again. feels like we'll have resolution of the channel well before february but it's an interesting view of things. #bitcoin
November 8, 2025 at 6:57 AM
seemingly still following the same trend from 2023. sideways and down until we don't, and ultimately up again. feels like we'll have resolution of the channel well before february but it's an interesting view of things. #bitcoin
price action looks like it’s been annoying chop lately. the hope is that this is part of a big deleveraging event before going higher, similar to june ‘25…and april ‘25…and august ‘24, etc
question is whether we get an actual capitulation event or if it’ll be time-based capitulation. #bitcoin
question is whether we get an actual capitulation event or if it’ll be time-based capitulation. #bitcoin
October 22, 2025 at 11:13 PM
price action looks like it’s been annoying chop lately. the hope is that this is part of a big deleveraging event before going higher, similar to june ‘25…and april ‘25…and august ‘24, etc
question is whether we get an actual capitulation event or if it’ll be time-based capitulation. #bitcoin
question is whether we get an actual capitulation event or if it’ll be time-based capitulation. #bitcoin
during the original tariff fears in march, #bitcoin fell below the band we could’ve expected to bounce from and instead hit the band below.
if that happened again, we could hit the band below us now at 108-109k. personally i think we bounce within days and not weeks, but could take a bit to resolve
if that happened again, we could hit the band below us now at 108-109k. personally i think we bounce within days and not weeks, but could take a bit to resolve
October 10, 2025 at 7:17 PM
during the original tariff fears in march, #bitcoin fell below the band we could’ve expected to bounce from and instead hit the band below.
if that happened again, we could hit the band below us now at 108-109k. personally i think we bounce within days and not weeks, but could take a bit to resolve
if that happened again, we could hit the band below us now at 108-109k. personally i think we bounce within days and not weeks, but could take a bit to resolve
in a bull market, red days are for buying. still within our band amid the new tariff fears.
finally allocated the 8% cash i had in my trading stack and back to all in. 83% btc and 13% btc miners. probably just sitting on my hands for the next week and trying not to overtrade. lots of Q4 left to go
finally allocated the 8% cash i had in my trading stack and back to all in. 83% btc and 13% btc miners. probably just sitting on my hands for the next week and trying not to overtrade. lots of Q4 left to go
October 10, 2025 at 4:31 PM
in a bull market, red days are for buying. still within our band amid the new tariff fears.
finally allocated the 8% cash i had in my trading stack and back to all in. 83% btc and 13% btc miners. probably just sitting on my hands for the next week and trying not to overtrade. lots of Q4 left to go
finally allocated the 8% cash i had in my trading stack and back to all in. 83% btc and 13% btc miners. probably just sitting on my hands for the next week and trying not to overtrade. lots of Q4 left to go
looking like a pretty nice retest of that 119-120k band so far. working to get above and stay over past resistance, like many other times in this cycle.
as we're near the rising wedge's bottom, we don't want to see a weekly close below 120k. under 113k i'd be real nervous. under 104k probably ggs.
as we're near the rising wedge's bottom, we don't want to see a weekly close below 120k. under 113k i'd be real nervous. under 104k probably ggs.
October 9, 2025 at 8:56 PM
looking like a pretty nice retest of that 119-120k band so far. working to get above and stay over past resistance, like many other times in this cycle.
as we're near the rising wedge's bottom, we don't want to see a weekly close below 120k. under 113k i'd be real nervous. under 104k probably ggs.
as we're near the rising wedge's bottom, we don't want to see a weekly close below 120k. under 113k i'd be real nervous. under 104k probably ggs.
though if i did have to draw one it'd probably look like this. doesn't seem unreasonable but not enough data yet
October 9, 2025 at 5:48 PM
though if i did have to draw one it'd probably look like this. doesn't seem unreasonable but not enough data yet
doesn't feel like a new descending channel yet. seems more like an intermezzo, similar to other times this cycle.
i would expect us to gap up over the next few weeks and start to form a new channel. although it's possible we see something like Oct 2024 and retest the top of the channel first
i would expect us to gap up over the next few weeks and start to form a new channel. although it's possible we see something like Oct 2024 and retest the top of the channel first
October 9, 2025 at 5:35 PM
doesn't feel like a new descending channel yet. seems more like an intermezzo, similar to other times this cycle.
i would expect us to gap up over the next few weeks and start to form a new channel. although it's possible we see something like Oct 2024 and retest the top of the channel first
i would expect us to gap up over the next few weeks and start to form a new channel. although it's possible we see something like Oct 2024 and retest the top of the channel first
after the craziness of the last 2 weeks, still just ranging. bummer to see acceptance back into the range.
2 weeks ago at 108k a lot of people thought we'd sweep the august lows, myself included. the pump then left people behind. it'd be very strange if the market now gave those people a good entry
2 weeks ago at 108k a lot of people thought we'd sweep the august lows, myself included. the pump then left people behind. it'd be very strange if the market now gave those people a good entry
October 9, 2025 at 5:17 PM
after the craziness of the last 2 weeks, still just ranging. bummer to see acceptance back into the range.
2 weeks ago at 108k a lot of people thought we'd sweep the august lows, myself included. the pump then left people behind. it'd be very strange if the market now gave those people a good entry
2 weeks ago at 108k a lot of people thought we'd sweep the august lows, myself included. the pump then left people behind. it'd be very strange if the market now gave those people a good entry
i found where that oct 6th meme came from. the numbers aren't even right lol.
ATL 2015 to ATH 2017 = 1068 days
ATH 2017 to ATL 2018 = 363 days
ATL 2018 to ATH 2021 = 1061 days
ATH 2021 to ATL 2022 = 376 days
plus, 1064 days from the 2022 low is oct 20th not the 6th. does no one check these things?
ATL 2015 to ATH 2017 = 1068 days
ATH 2017 to ATL 2018 = 363 days
ATL 2018 to ATH 2021 = 1061 days
ATH 2021 to ATL 2022 = 376 days
plus, 1064 days from the 2022 low is oct 20th not the 6th. does no one check these things?
October 9, 2025 at 2:11 AM
i found where that oct 6th meme came from. the numbers aren't even right lol.
ATL 2015 to ATH 2017 = 1068 days
ATH 2017 to ATL 2018 = 363 days
ATL 2018 to ATH 2021 = 1061 days
ATH 2021 to ATL 2022 = 376 days
plus, 1064 days from the 2022 low is oct 20th not the 6th. does no one check these things?
ATL 2015 to ATH 2017 = 1068 days
ATH 2017 to ATL 2018 = 363 days
ATL 2018 to ATH 2021 = 1061 days
ATH 2021 to ATL 2022 = 376 days
plus, 1064 days from the 2022 low is oct 20th not the 6th. does no one check these things?
good example today on why it can be good to have 2 points of confirmation before making big moves. we broke the 4h downtrend but then rejected from the channel top.
still, trying not to mess around too much so i mostly bought back in. trading stack is 80% btc, 12% btc miners (MARA now), and 8% cash
still, trying not to mess around too much so i mostly bought back in. trading stack is 80% btc, 12% btc miners (MARA now), and 8% cash
October 9, 2025 at 12:30 AM
good example today on why it can be good to have 2 points of confirmation before making big moves. we broke the 4h downtrend but then rejected from the channel top.
still, trying not to mess around too much so i mostly bought back in. trading stack is 80% btc, 12% btc miners (MARA now), and 8% cash
still, trying not to mess around too much so i mostly bought back in. trading stack is 80% btc, 12% btc miners (MARA now), and 8% cash
after fully exiting the 2x btc short yesterday and buying a bit, trading stack is 67% btc and 33% cash. itching to just go back all in, maybe add some btc miners, but i’m going to see how today turns out. ideally, we’d break the 4h downtrend and get back above the top of the channel, ~124k. #bitcoin
October 8, 2025 at 1:23 PM
after fully exiting the 2x btc short yesterday and buying a bit, trading stack is 67% btc and 33% cash. itching to just go back all in, maybe add some btc miners, but i’m going to see how today turns out. ideally, we’d break the 4h downtrend and get back above the top of the channel, ~124k. #bitcoin
good bounce around 120k and short-term channel's three quarter mark like we were thinking. wouldn't be the worst thing to consolidate over 120k for a while. there's some leveraged liquidity below but the hope is to at least stay above the channel midpoint, currently about 118k. #bitcoin
October 8, 2025 at 1:27 AM
good bounce around 120k and short-term channel's three quarter mark like we were thinking. wouldn't be the worst thing to consolidate over 120k for a while. there's some leveraged liquidity below but the hope is to at least stay above the channel midpoint, currently about 118k. #bitcoin
bonus charts: orange is from last 1 year and shows thursday as the roughest day. blue is cumulative from 2015 to today and, although positive, shows tuesdays and thursdays as weaker days
October 6, 2025 at 9:46 PM
bonus charts: orange is from last 1 year and shows thursday as the roughest day. blue is cumulative from 2015 to today and, although positive, shows tuesdays and thursdays as weaker days
chart in red below is average #bitcoin daily return by day of the week between 2015 and the bitcoin ETFs. chart in purple is average returns after the ETFs.
pretty noticeable shift. this is part of why i'm looking to see if we get any further discount prices tomorrow
pretty noticeable shift. this is part of why i'm looking to see if we get any further discount prices tomorrow
October 6, 2025 at 9:46 PM
chart in red below is average #bitcoin daily return by day of the week between 2015 and the bitcoin ETFs. chart in purple is average returns after the ETFs.
pretty noticeable shift. this is part of why i'm looking to see if we get any further discount prices tomorrow
pretty noticeable shift. this is part of why i'm looking to see if we get any further discount prices tomorrow
