The sales for certifications are only counted after 1994 when the complication company of the charts changed. So those certifications don't take into account its 1980s sales.

The independence figures in the poll were 50/50. There was also a 73/27 split for rejoining the EU.

Their regional vote is down substantially since 2021. So they wouldn't be compensated for the loss of a constituency seat on these numbers.

The 'but more powers will be used to promote independence' line doesn't really make sense going by other places such as Quebec. I honestly think if Smith had delivered real reform of the UK's strucutres and (and no Brexit) independence support would have substantially slipped away by now.

The now forgotten Smith Comission was a huge example of this. It was the idea that giving more responsibility to the Scottish Parliament (I mind plenty of 'the SNP will now have to look taxpayers in the eye' quotes at the time) would be what would kill independence by making the SNP more unpopular.

In the new YouGov/SCOOP poll of Scotrish voters from October, 67% say the Labour government doing a bad job compared to 6% a good one. Just over a year in and some horrific numbers!

They should have done this last year when there were saying they found secret black hole in the finances. I always felt they should have reversed those cuts to NI. They could maybe have gotten away with it at the start but not now that any trust and good will the new government had is gone.

What I don't understand is why they think tactical voting would only go in Labour's favour... Still a decent sized Conservative vote in polls that Reform can squeeze.

Also is a wonder why polling companies still weight 48/52 and 45/55 taking into account the way the electorate has changed.

I suspect a Reform Government could end up being a bit like Brexit. A short term increase that would then disappear but leaving a wider gap in support between generations and left/right. If Reform removes the Barnett Formula it could also make indy feel less risky.

Because he is a populist or something.

Of course when focus moves from Labour at Westminster to the election next year and on the SNP's record things might change but given that Swinney and Sarwar as about equally unpopular it may not.

Clearly the SNP aren't popular and there is widespread unhappiness with their performance but no one has been able to gain from that. Labour will be especially disappointed, as Ipsos points out they were evenly matched to the SNP on these questions last year but have now fallen behind again.

Currently 2026 looks like it will have a bit of the 2017 GE about it where somehow everyone loses. As a former SNP member the party feels completely exhausted at his point and a spell in opposition could be good thing. But the path to another party taking power is currently looking very narrow.

I mostly agree with you on the need for more local government. I don't think handing powers upwards to an elected mayor would really help with this. Especially since we already have council leaders and ceremonial Provosts.

Maybe Cons/Reform would abstain to install a Unionist FM but a Lab/Lib Dem partnership would be well short of a stable government. Unless something big changes in the next year it will be a massive mess.

At even 35% of the vote they got in the GE last year forming the next Scottish government would still have been a challenge, at around 20% nationally their support will likely have to rebound significantly in the next year for a chance at the Lab/Lib Dems route to power.

Oh it's clear Reform are very credible to establish themselves as second or third place next year. They would surely *at least* win two or three seats per electoral region at this rate and surely stand a shot at North East and Borders constituencies given the low vote shares to win we are seeing.

The three way marginal result really highlights the fracturing of the political system we saw last year. No one is popular. It also suggests the constituency contests are going to be very scrappy indeed next year.