We can get a bounce based on technicals but I do think Trump sees chaos as a ladder, and that he wants chaos to consolidate power and have more bargaining power
March 10, 2025 at 4:56 PM
We can get a bounce based on technicals but I do think Trump sees chaos as a ladder, and that he wants chaos to consolidate power and have more bargaining power
Do you think Bessent the better pick?
November 22, 2024 at 3:16 PM
Do you think Bessent the better pick?
The fact that this doesn't seem farfetched really speaks to the times we are living in. This would have been insane to say 5 years ago
November 15, 2024 at 11:27 PM
The fact that this doesn't seem farfetched really speaks to the times we are living in. This would have been insane to say 5 years ago
Genuine replies and less spam imo. Look at the replies to this post vs what you would get on Twitter
Agree with other comments that search feature has to improve
Agree with other comments that search feature has to improve
November 12, 2024 at 9:50 PM
Genuine replies and less spam imo. Look at the replies to this post vs what you would get on Twitter
Agree with other comments that search feature has to improve
Agree with other comments that search feature has to improve
14/
I just don't see the short thesis on GOOS at these levels.
Curious to hear any other takes and I hope you learned something!
NTM EBITDA 9.2x
CY23 EBITDA 9.9x
C24 EBITDA 8.2x
Will do a thread on brand surveys/buzz later (which are healthy)
I just don't see the short thesis on GOOS at these levels.
Curious to hear any other takes and I hope you learned something!
NTM EBITDA 9.2x
CY23 EBITDA 9.9x
C24 EBITDA 8.2x
Will do a thread on brand surveys/buzz later (which are healthy)
August 2, 2023 at 2:46 AM
14/
I just don't see the short thesis on GOOS at these levels.
Curious to hear any other takes and I hope you learned something!
NTM EBITDA 9.2x
CY23 EBITDA 9.9x
C24 EBITDA 8.2x
Will do a thread on brand surveys/buzz later (which are healthy)
I just don't see the short thesis on GOOS at these levels.
Curious to hear any other takes and I hope you learned something!
NTM EBITDA 9.2x
CY23 EBITDA 9.9x
C24 EBITDA 8.2x
Will do a thread on brand surveys/buzz later (which are healthy)
13/
To summarize:
1) GOOS is gaining market share globally
2) GOOS sales are growing
3) GOOS is skewed to China
4) GOOS expectations have been revised downward many times
5) GOOS CQ2 credit card data looks ok
6) GOOS already down 75% from recent high
7) SI is at 1-yr highs
To summarize:
1) GOOS is gaining market share globally
2) GOOS sales are growing
3) GOOS is skewed to China
4) GOOS expectations have been revised downward many times
5) GOOS CQ2 credit card data looks ok
6) GOOS already down 75% from recent high
7) SI is at 1-yr highs
August 2, 2023 at 2:45 AM
13/
To summarize:
1) GOOS is gaining market share globally
2) GOOS sales are growing
3) GOOS is skewed to China
4) GOOS expectations have been revised downward many times
5) GOOS CQ2 credit card data looks ok
6) GOOS already down 75% from recent high
7) SI is at 1-yr highs
To summarize:
1) GOOS is gaining market share globally
2) GOOS sales are growing
3) GOOS is skewed to China
4) GOOS expectations have been revised downward many times
5) GOOS CQ2 credit card data looks ok
6) GOOS already down 75% from recent high
7) SI is at 1-yr highs
12/
Lastly, short interest has always been high for GOOS because people pair trade it with MONC. Seeing as how the SI is high for the US float but not the Canadian float, this is likely true. However, the squeeze risk is very high now per S3 data (SQ + CS >85 is no bueno)
Lastly, short interest has always been high for GOOS because people pair trade it with MONC. Seeing as how the SI is high for the US float but not the Canadian float, this is likely true. However, the squeeze risk is very high now per S3 data (SQ + CS >85 is no bueno)
August 2, 2023 at 2:45 AM
12/
Lastly, short interest has always been high for GOOS because people pair trade it with MONC. Seeing as how the SI is high for the US float but not the Canadian float, this is likely true. However, the squeeze risk is very high now per S3 data (SQ + CS >85 is no bueno)
Lastly, short interest has always been high for GOOS because people pair trade it with MONC. Seeing as how the SI is high for the US float but not the Canadian float, this is likely true. However, the squeeze risk is very high now per S3 data (SQ + CS >85 is no bueno)
11/
Operating Profit expectations have been revised lower many times already. Maybe they get revised lower yet again (this is $GOOS afterall lol), but it does feel like we are reaching trough expectations. We also have winter season just around the corner.
Operating Profit expectations have been revised lower many times already. Maybe they get revised lower yet again (this is $GOOS afterall lol), but it does feel like we are reaching trough expectations. We also have winter season just around the corner.
August 2, 2023 at 2:44 AM
11/
Operating Profit expectations have been revised lower many times already. Maybe they get revised lower yet again (this is $GOOS afterall lol), but it does feel like we are reaching trough expectations. We also have winter season just around the corner.
Operating Profit expectations have been revised lower many times already. Maybe they get revised lower yet again (this is $GOOS afterall lol), but it does feel like we are reaching trough expectations. We also have winter season just around the corner.
10/
China soft/weak-reopening should help this quarter too at the margin. The company has one of the largest company-owned store mixes in the luxury space.
China soft/weak-reopening should help this quarter too at the margin. The company has one of the largest company-owned store mixes in the luxury space.
August 2, 2023 at 2:44 AM
10/
China soft/weak-reopening should help this quarter too at the margin. The company has one of the largest company-owned store mixes in the luxury space.
China soft/weak-reopening should help this quarter too at the margin. The company has one of the largest company-owned store mixes in the luxury space.
9/
$GOOS earnings are out on Thursday.
For all the worries about sales in the US wholesale channel weakening, credit and debit card data points to better than last year sales in DTC (from a small sample set, admittedly). See chart.
$GOOS earnings are out on Thursday.
For all the worries about sales in the US wholesale channel weakening, credit and debit card data points to better than last year sales in DTC (from a small sample set, admittedly). See chart.
August 2, 2023 at 2:43 AM
9/
$GOOS earnings are out on Thursday.
For all the worries about sales in the US wholesale channel weakening, credit and debit card data points to better than last year sales in DTC (from a small sample set, admittedly). See chart.
$GOOS earnings are out on Thursday.
For all the worries about sales in the US wholesale channel weakening, credit and debit card data points to better than last year sales in DTC (from a small sample set, admittedly). See chart.
8/
An open letter to the Canada Goose execs:
Hire people that didn't spend almost 15 years at Columbia Sportswear.
That's it. That's the letter.
An open letter to the Canada Goose execs:
Hire people that didn't spend almost 15 years at Columbia Sportswear.
That's it. That's the letter.
August 2, 2023 at 2:42 AM
8/
An open letter to the Canada Goose execs:
Hire people that didn't spend almost 15 years at Columbia Sportswear.
That's it. That's the letter.
An open letter to the Canada Goose execs:
Hire people that didn't spend almost 15 years at Columbia Sportswear.
That's it. That's the letter.
7/
I also think that GOOS designers can be a bit boring when compared to other luxury brands.
Where are the collabs? Make this s**t sexy! A few quick prompts in Midjourney can yield great ideas. See example below of a Tiffany-Goose collab.
I also think that GOOS designers can be a bit boring when compared to other luxury brands.
Where are the collabs? Make this s**t sexy! A few quick prompts in Midjourney can yield great ideas. See example below of a Tiffany-Goose collab.
August 2, 2023 at 2:42 AM
7/
I also think that GOOS designers can be a bit boring when compared to other luxury brands.
Where are the collabs? Make this s**t sexy! A few quick prompts in Midjourney can yield great ideas. See example below of a Tiffany-Goose collab.
I also think that GOOS designers can be a bit boring when compared to other luxury brands.
Where are the collabs? Make this s**t sexy! A few quick prompts in Midjourney can yield great ideas. See example below of a Tiffany-Goose collab.
6/
The only part where I may agree with the shorts is in mgmt quality when it comes to setting expectations. Really poor forecasting on their part and not cautious enough with guidance given weakening economy. Mgmt also pays themselves too much.
The only part where I may agree with the shorts is in mgmt quality when it comes to setting expectations. Really poor forecasting on their part and not cautious enough with guidance given weakening economy. Mgmt also pays themselves too much.
August 2, 2023 at 2:41 AM
6/
The only part where I may agree with the shorts is in mgmt quality when it comes to setting expectations. Really poor forecasting on their part and not cautious enough with guidance given weakening economy. Mgmt also pays themselves too much.
The only part where I may agree with the shorts is in mgmt quality when it comes to setting expectations. Really poor forecasting on their part and not cautious enough with guidance given weakening economy. Mgmt also pays themselves too much.
5/
Look at the charts in the previous tweet again.
You’d need a deterioration in market share in 14 countries in order to justify shorting a growing designer/apparel name trading at 9x NTM EBITDA.
Look at the charts in the previous tweet again.
You’d need a deterioration in market share in 14 countries in order to justify shorting a growing designer/apparel name trading at 9x NTM EBITDA.
August 2, 2023 at 2:41 AM
5/
Look at the charts in the previous tweet again.
You’d need a deterioration in market share in 14 countries in order to justify shorting a growing designer/apparel name trading at 9x NTM EBITDA.
Look at the charts in the previous tweet again.
You’d need a deterioration in market share in 14 countries in order to justify shorting a growing designer/apparel name trading at 9x NTM EBITDA.
4/
I think a lot of people see market share in the US, and assume that the same thing is happening in other countries.
But that’s not the case at all.
Here’s market share in every other country in which GOOS is big enough to show up in data.
All up and to the right ↗
I think a lot of people see market share in the US, and assume that the same thing is happening in other countries.
But that’s not the case at all.
Here’s market share in every other country in which GOOS is big enough to show up in data.
All up and to the right ↗
August 2, 2023 at 2:40 AM
4/
I think a lot of people see market share in the US, and assume that the same thing is happening in other countries.
But that’s not the case at all.
Here’s market share in every other country in which GOOS is big enough to show up in data.
All up and to the right ↗
I think a lot of people see market share in the US, and assume that the same thing is happening in other countries.
But that’s not the case at all.
Here’s market share in every other country in which GOOS is big enough to show up in data.
All up and to the right ↗
3/
However, sales in the US continue to grow year after year (about 10% annually). They are not skyrocketing, but they're pretty steady and growing. See trend in the chart. Not a sign of a dying brand.
However, sales in the US continue to grow year after year (about 10% annually). They are not skyrocketing, but they're pretty steady and growing. See trend in the chart. Not a sign of a dying brand.
August 2, 2023 at 2:40 AM
3/
However, sales in the US continue to grow year after year (about 10% annually). They are not skyrocketing, but they're pretty steady and growing. See trend in the chart. Not a sign of a dying brand.
However, sales in the US continue to grow year after year (about 10% annually). They are not skyrocketing, but they're pretty steady and growing. See trend in the chart. Not a sign of a dying brand.
2/
I think that perhaps people are over-focused on the US market, which indeed has stalled over the last two years.
I think that perhaps people are over-focused on the US market, which indeed has stalled over the last two years.
August 2, 2023 at 2:39 AM
2/
I think that perhaps people are over-focused on the US market, which indeed has stalled over the last two years.
I think that perhaps people are over-focused on the US market, which indeed has stalled over the last two years.