Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
@1874pritch.bsky.social
Probably gonna be a bit looser on here
Ball knower, ⚽ Data Science with tactical context, probably politics & pop culture too
Subscribe to my Substack! I'll start posting when my PhD is finished...promise
Available for freelance analysis & writing, just
Ball knower, ⚽ Data Science with tactical context, probably politics & pop culture too
Subscribe to my Substack! I'll start posting when my PhD is finished...promise
Available for freelance analysis & writing, just
Reposted by Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
New post: Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/blue...
It worked in 24 so it will work again. Labours marginals are different. Socially liberal voters will vote for us to stop Reform. Used by Labour to justify Reform like policies, but these arguments are just wrong.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/blue...
It worked in 24 so it will work again. Labours marginals are different. Socially liberal voters will vote for us to stop Reform. Used by Labour to justify Reform like policies, but these arguments are just wrong.
Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies
The government’s latest proposed revamp of asylum laws reminds us that Labour have not abandoned their approach of using right wing popul...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:07 AM
New post: Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/blue...
It worked in 24 so it will work again. Labours marginals are different. Socially liberal voters will vote for us to stop Reform. Used by Labour to justify Reform like policies, but these arguments are just wrong.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/blue...
It worked in 24 so it will work again. Labours marginals are different. Socially liberal voters will vote for us to stop Reform. Used by Labour to justify Reform like policies, but these arguments are just wrong.
Honestly just assume Elliott gets mins around Christmas having been Emeryfied.
Pretty hard role with a bunch of guys already there.
It's Emery year 4, he just isn't going to dumb the role down a bit (like year 1 Diaby, McGinn & Buendia got) to integrate Elliott when the finances are Europe or bust.
Pretty hard role with a bunch of guys already there.
It's Emery year 4, he just isn't going to dumb the role down a bit (like year 1 Diaby, McGinn & Buendia got) to integrate Elliott when the finances are Europe or bust.
These are testing times for Harvey Elliott.
Frozen out on loan at Aston Villa, no longer wanted by Liverpool and far from England head coach Thomas Tuchel’s thoughts with the World Cup just seven months away.
🔗 www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Frozen out on loan at Aston Villa, no longer wanted by Liverpool and far from England head coach Thomas Tuchel’s thoughts with the World Cup just seven months away.
🔗 www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
November 13, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Honestly just assume Elliott gets mins around Christmas having been Emeryfied.
Pretty hard role with a bunch of guys already there.
It's Emery year 4, he just isn't going to dumb the role down a bit (like year 1 Diaby, McGinn & Buendia got) to integrate Elliott when the finances are Europe or bust.
Pretty hard role with a bunch of guys already there.
It's Emery year 4, he just isn't going to dumb the role down a bit (like year 1 Diaby, McGinn & Buendia got) to integrate Elliott when the finances are Europe or bust.
Proposed side to bash the fash.
Next couple of European games are a good chance to try things out, one being the front 2 again though with Guessand in a more natural position for him.
Next couple of European games are a good chance to try things out, one being the front 2 again though with Guessand in a more natural position for him.
November 6, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Proposed side to bash the fash.
Next couple of European games are a good chance to try things out, one being the front 2 again though with Guessand in a more natural position for him.
Next couple of European games are a good chance to try things out, one being the front 2 again though with Guessand in a more natural position for him.
Reposted by Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
Working theory on what broke Villa's attack is Watkins lost a step.
Can't seem to get the separation to receive & shoot. Means he doesn't have the gravity to occupy two defenders as well, costing the 10s space.
Dropping in to compensate, maybe the Malen Watkins front 2 has legs until January.
Can't seem to get the separation to receive & shoot. Means he doesn't have the gravity to occupy two defenders as well, costing the 10s space.
Dropping in to compensate, maybe the Malen Watkins front 2 has legs until January.
November 2, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Working theory on what broke Villa's attack is Watkins lost a step.
Can't seem to get the separation to receive & shoot. Means he doesn't have the gravity to occupy two defenders as well, costing the 10s space.
Dropping in to compensate, maybe the Malen Watkins front 2 has legs until January.
Can't seem to get the separation to receive & shoot. Means he doesn't have the gravity to occupy two defenders as well, costing the 10s space.
Dropping in to compensate, maybe the Malen Watkins front 2 has legs until January.
Working theory on what broke Villa's attack is Watkins lost a step.
Can't seem to get the separation to receive & shoot. Means he doesn't have the gravity to occupy two defenders as well, costing the 10s space.
Dropping in to compensate, maybe the Malen Watkins front 2 has legs until January.
Can't seem to get the separation to receive & shoot. Means he doesn't have the gravity to occupy two defenders as well, costing the 10s space.
Dropping in to compensate, maybe the Malen Watkins front 2 has legs until January.
November 2, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Working theory on what broke Villa's attack is Watkins lost a step.
Can't seem to get the separation to receive & shoot. Means he doesn't have the gravity to occupy two defenders as well, costing the 10s space.
Dropping in to compensate, maybe the Malen Watkins front 2 has legs until January.
Can't seem to get the separation to receive & shoot. Means he doesn't have the gravity to occupy two defenders as well, costing the 10s space.
Dropping in to compensate, maybe the Malen Watkins front 2 has legs until January.
How I expect we'll line up against Liverpool tonight. Guessand & Rogers are the key figures to attack Liverpool's problem fullbacks. Their other issue is ball winning in midfield, something ours does quite nicely.
It'll be an up & down game that I think we should lean into & trust in the pivot.
It'll be an up & down game that I think we should lean into & trust in the pivot.
November 1, 2025 at 9:28 AM
How I expect we'll line up against Liverpool tonight. Guessand & Rogers are the key figures to attack Liverpool's problem fullbacks. Their other issue is ball winning in midfield, something ours does quite nicely.
It'll be an up & down game that I think we should lean into & trust in the pivot.
It'll be an up & down game that I think we should lean into & trust in the pivot.
City running all shots through Haaland really helped Villa today. Don't think there's too many defenses who limit him to a half chance & a couple more shots in that situation but Unai's just built for that sort of matchup.
If Pep had held onto Alvarez that's another 9-12 points easy.
If Pep had held onto Alvarez that's another 9-12 points easy.
October 26, 2025 at 4:14 PM
City running all shots through Haaland really helped Villa today. Don't think there's too many defenses who limit him to a half chance & a couple more shots in that situation but Unai's just built for that sort of matchup.
If Pep had held onto Alvarez that's another 9-12 points easy.
If Pep had held onto Alvarez that's another 9-12 points easy.
How I go Vs Spurs.
They don't have any good midfield passers, apply pressure there & win the ball with Onana & Kamara. McGinn is further forward to cut out long passes into the wide players. Digne needs to cut off Kudus (he's not that quick so I back him to do this).
They don't have any good midfield passers, apply pressure there & win the ball with Onana & Kamara. McGinn is further forward to cut out long passes into the wide players. Digne needs to cut off Kudus (he's not that quick so I back him to do this).
October 19, 2025 at 11:35 AM
How I go Vs Spurs.
They don't have any good midfield passers, apply pressure there & win the ball with Onana & Kamara. McGinn is further forward to cut out long passes into the wide players. Digne needs to cut off Kudus (he's not that quick so I back him to do this).
They don't have any good midfield passers, apply pressure there & win the ball with Onana & Kamara. McGinn is further forward to cut out long passes into the wide players. Digne needs to cut off Kudus (he's not that quick so I back him to do this).
Reposted by Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
Decades after the Heysel and Hillsborough disasters, can politicians please not second-guess expert safety assessments for football stadiums.
Thank you.
An Aston Villa fan.
Thank you.
An Aston Villa fan.
October 17, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Decades after the Heysel and Hillsborough disasters, can politicians please not second-guess expert safety assessments for football stadiums.
Thank you.
An Aston Villa fan.
Thank you.
An Aston Villa fan.
Reposted by Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
keir starmer has achieved the impossible: getting the left to defend the policing of football matches.
October 17, 2025 at 1:22 PM
keir starmer has achieved the impossible: getting the left to defend the policing of football matches.
Reposted by Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
I do not think hooligans should get a free pass to do hooliganism because they’re Israeli (to say nothing of conflating it to *judaism* and antisemitism).
And the general, though admittedly imperfect, solution to this has pretty much always been to just ban away fans. www.bbc.com/news/article...
And the general, though admittedly imperfect, solution to this has pretty much always been to just ban away fans. www.bbc.com/news/article...
Wrong to stop Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending Aston Villa match, says PM
Followers of the Israeli club will not be allowed to attend the Europa League game over safety concerns.
www.bbc.com
October 17, 2025 at 6:10 AM
I do not think hooligans should get a free pass to do hooliganism because they’re Israeli (to say nothing of conflating it to *judaism* and antisemitism).
And the general, though admittedly imperfect, solution to this has pretty much always been to just ban away fans. www.bbc.com/news/article...
And the general, though admittedly imperfect, solution to this has pretty much always been to just ban away fans. www.bbc.com/news/article...
No one cared when Legia Warsaw fans were banned for similar violent conduct but now those fans are from Israel the PM chimes in?
Does he really want to spend a bunch of taxpayer money to protect a bunch of fascist thugs in Birmingham? Political instincts of a dead fish.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Does he really want to spend a bunch of taxpayer money to protect a bunch of fascist thugs in Birmingham? Political instincts of a dead fish.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Wrong to stop Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending Aston Villa match, says PM
Followers of the Israeli club will not be allowed to attend the Europa League game over safety concerns.
www.bbc.com
October 17, 2025 at 6:04 AM
No one cared when Legia Warsaw fans were banned for similar violent conduct but now those fans are from Israel the PM chimes in?
Does he really want to spend a bunch of taxpayer money to protect a bunch of fascist thugs in Birmingham? Political instincts of a dead fish.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Does he really want to spend a bunch of taxpayer money to protect a bunch of fascist thugs in Birmingham? Political instincts of a dead fish.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Yeah I'm feeling pretty ok about my preseason takes on Buendia & Bogarde.
We're still in figure it out mode, especially with Sancho & Elliot having Buendia to cross that transition has helped a ton.
My McGinn not starting takes less so, as the 8ish 6 he's been what I hope Onana can be.
We're still in figure it out mode, especially with Sancho & Elliot having Buendia to cross that transition has helped a ton.
My McGinn not starting takes less so, as the 8ish 6 he's been what I hope Onana can be.
Caught up on preseason thoughts:
I'd be ok with Buendia stopping, Buendia fills a passing 10 niche we don't otherwise have.
Bailey; high ceiling, low floor & he's on too much for 4/10 performances. Could spread that across 2 players.
1 should be a rotation CB, harms Bogarde to be playing there.
I'd be ok with Buendia stopping, Buendia fills a passing 10 niche we don't otherwise have.
Bailey; high ceiling, low floor & he's on too much for 4/10 performances. Could spread that across 2 players.
1 should be a rotation CB, harms Bogarde to be playing there.
It's important when letting players leave to replace them with tools the squad needs at leas squad cost.
It still looks like Buendia & Bailey leave (approx €20m/year), adding to our final 3rd creativity issue, shot production & forward rotation (Rogers played 4000+ mins!), so let's start there.
It still looks like Buendia & Bailey leave (approx €20m/year), adding to our final 3rd creativity issue, shot production & forward rotation (Rogers played 4000+ mins!), so let's start there.
October 3, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Yeah I'm feeling pretty ok about my preseason takes on Buendia & Bogarde.
We're still in figure it out mode, especially with Sancho & Elliot having Buendia to cross that transition has helped a ton.
My McGinn not starting takes less so, as the 8ish 6 he's been what I hope Onana can be.
We're still in figure it out mode, especially with Sancho & Elliot having Buendia to cross that transition has helped a ton.
My McGinn not starting takes less so, as the 8ish 6 he's been what I hope Onana can be.
Villa in we'll attack with 1.5 players mode & Malen does that. Great work, criminal he doesn't get the assist.
Villa still aren't at full steam but things certainly look better with a few wins.
Villa still aren't at full steam but things certainly look better with a few wins.
October 2, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Villa in we'll attack with 1.5 players mode & Malen does that. Great work, criminal he doesn't get the assist.
Villa still aren't at full steam but things certainly look better with a few wins.
Villa still aren't at full steam but things certainly look better with a few wins.
How I line up after a midweek win. Rogers & Guessand played the full 90, Roger in particular needs a rest.
Leaves us without a direct final third dribbler so my idea would be to use wide passing triangles (Digne, McGinn, Buendia/Malen, Elliot, Cash) to pull the Fulham back line apart.
Leaves us without a direct final third dribbler so my idea would be to use wide passing triangles (Digne, McGinn, Buendia/Malen, Elliot, Cash) to pull the Fulham back line apart.
September 28, 2025 at 8:56 AM
How I line up after a midweek win. Rogers & Guessand played the full 90, Roger in particular needs a rest.
Leaves us without a direct final third dribbler so my idea would be to use wide passing triangles (Digne, McGinn, Buendia/Malen, Elliot, Cash) to pull the Fulham back line apart.
Leaves us without a direct final third dribbler so my idea would be to use wide passing triangles (Digne, McGinn, Buendia/Malen, Elliot, Cash) to pull the Fulham back line apart.
I don't tweet about Villa women enough but last minute equaliser to get a point in the road at Arsenal is something else man.
Horrible opening 3 fixtures that we've come out of with a couple points & plenty of credit, hope we kick on from here.
Horrible opening 3 fixtures that we've come out of with a couple points & plenty of credit, hope we kick on from here.
September 27, 2025 at 1:05 PM
I don't tweet about Villa women enough but last minute equaliser to get a point in the road at Arsenal is something else man.
Horrible opening 3 fixtures that we've come out of with a couple points & plenty of credit, hope we kick on from here.
Horrible opening 3 fixtures that we've come out of with a couple points & plenty of credit, hope we kick on from here.
Reposted by Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
and following up on the chaosmaxxing pod, we looked at the extremely bizarre early season numbers on team touch profiles and why the normal logic of touch profile stats (good teams have more final third touches, bad teams fewer) is breaking down in the PL www.patreon.com/posts/where-...
Where Have All the Final Third Touches Gone | The Double Pivot Podcast
Get more from The Double Pivot Podcast on Patreon
www.patreon.com
September 26, 2025 at 1:00 PM
and following up on the chaosmaxxing pod, we looked at the extremely bizarre early season numbers on team touch profiles and why the normal logic of touch profile stats (good teams have more final third touches, bad teams fewer) is breaking down in the PL www.patreon.com/posts/where-...
Morgan Rogers discourse (only watched highlights of last night because migraine).
Slightly overblown how bad he's been, trying lots of through balls. His legs will drop off if he dribbles for another 90 mins. Dribbly bois rarely play 90, he does all the time & there's no bursts of pace left in him.
Slightly overblown how bad he's been, trying lots of through balls. His legs will drop off if he dribbles for another 90 mins. Dribbly bois rarely play 90, he does all the time & there's no bursts of pace left in him.
September 26, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Morgan Rogers discourse (only watched highlights of last night because migraine).
Slightly overblown how bad he's been, trying lots of through balls. His legs will drop off if he dribbles for another 90 mins. Dribbly bois rarely play 90, he does all the time & there's no bursts of pace left in him.
Slightly overblown how bad he's been, trying lots of through balls. His legs will drop off if he dribbles for another 90 mins. Dribbly bois rarely play 90, he does all the time & there's no bursts of pace left in him.
Well the fallout is here, an organisational restructure dressed up as a public execution for poor form. Not great even if I'm pretty happy with Olabe & his record.
The way it's been done though leans into a transfers have been bad narrative that willfully ignores context.
The way it's been done though leans into a transfers have been bad narrative that willfully ignores context.
Will wait and see what the fallout & reporting of this is before commenting on what this actually means for the club. That said he's done an decent job by anyone's measure given the issues that were coming down the pipeline when he joined up.
🚨 Monchi leaves Aston Villa with immediate effect as decision has been made. Former Sevilla and AS Roma director leaves #AVFC project as the chapter is over.
September 24, 2025 at 6:12 AM
Well the fallout is here, an organisational restructure dressed up as a public execution for poor form. Not great even if I'm pretty happy with Olabe & his record.
The way it's been done though leans into a transfers have been bad narrative that willfully ignores context.
The way it's been done though leans into a transfers have been bad narrative that willfully ignores context.
Reposted by Dan Pritchard - Another fananalyst data nerd
Monchi's #AVFC exit:
◾️Sensed but still a surprise
◾️Some staff told on Monday afternoon but players were unaware
◾️Transfer window struggles/consequences
◾️Emery's power, inner circle and Olabe
◾️Flekken planned to replace Martinez
◾️Club mood
➕More
www.nytimes.com/athletic/665...
◾️Sensed but still a surprise
◾️Some staff told on Monday afternoon but players were unaware
◾️Transfer window struggles/consequences
◾️Emery's power, inner circle and Olabe
◾️Flekken planned to replace Martinez
◾️Club mood
➕More
www.nytimes.com/athletic/665...
Inside Monchi’s Aston Villa exit: Window chaos, financial frustration, and where it leaves Emery
The Spaniard's departure was a shock but not a surprise after a whirlwind few months and a dire start to the season
www.nytimes.com
September 23, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Monchi's #AVFC exit:
◾️Sensed but still a surprise
◾️Some staff told on Monday afternoon but players were unaware
◾️Transfer window struggles/consequences
◾️Emery's power, inner circle and Olabe
◾️Flekken planned to replace Martinez
◾️Club mood
➕More
www.nytimes.com/athletic/665...
◾️Sensed but still a surprise
◾️Some staff told on Monday afternoon but players were unaware
◾️Transfer window struggles/consequences
◾️Emery's power, inner circle and Olabe
◾️Flekken planned to replace Martinez
◾️Club mood
➕More
www.nytimes.com/athletic/665...
Will wait and see what the fallout & reporting of this is before commenting on what this actually means for the club. That said he's done an decent job by anyone's measure given the issues that were coming down the pipeline when he joined up.
🚨 Monchi leaves Aston Villa with immediate effect as decision has been made. Former Sevilla and AS Roma director leaves #AVFC project as the chapter is over.
September 23, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Will wait and see what the fallout & reporting of this is before commenting on what this actually means for the club. That said he's done an decent job by anyone's measure given the issues that were coming down the pipeline when he joined up.
This is my why Villa are bad now take. Looked better at Everton & Brentford by going wide earlier to open central space. Sunderland didn't open & we can't utilise the wide space well, a death sentence in this tactical meta.
Maatsen has to start, RB loans should be explored in Jan.
Maatsen has to start, RB loans should be explored in Jan.
My story is Villa got good shots through line breaking balls to tweeners in space, struggling to get them now for mostly tactical & some cooked reasons.
When we don't get them Digne & Cash aren't good enough to make the wide spaces more effective avenues for good shots.
When we don't get them Digne & Cash aren't good enough to make the wide spaces more effective avenues for good shots.
September 21, 2025 at 4:46 PM
This is my why Villa are bad now take. Looked better at Everton & Brentford by going wide earlier to open central space. Sunderland didn't open & we can't utilise the wide space well, a death sentence in this tactical meta.
Maatsen has to start, RB loans should be explored in Jan.
Maatsen has to start, RB loans should be explored in Jan.
How is go in for today. Concerned about how many minutes McGinn is having to play though.
With the number of injuries there, including youth, I wonder if it's nessisary for Buendia or Elliot to sub in there. Without Pau or Tielemans Maatsen has to start for me; Digne probably starts for Unai.
With the number of injuries there, including youth, I wonder if it's nessisary for Buendia or Elliot to sub in there. Without Pau or Tielemans Maatsen has to start for me; Digne probably starts for Unai.
September 21, 2025 at 10:34 AM
How is go in for today. Concerned about how many minutes McGinn is having to play though.
With the number of injuries there, including youth, I wonder if it's nessisary for Buendia or Elliot to sub in there. Without Pau or Tielemans Maatsen has to start for me; Digne probably starts for Unai.
With the number of injuries there, including youth, I wonder if it's nessisary for Buendia or Elliot to sub in there. Without Pau or Tielemans Maatsen has to start for me; Digne probably starts for Unai.
Very glad to see some pushback against Starmer's spineless transphobe loving government from... [Checks notes]
Capitalist enterprises!?
Wow this makes the May & Johnson years look competent.
Capitalist enterprises!?
Wow this makes the May & Johnson years look competent.
September 17, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Very glad to see some pushback against Starmer's spineless transphobe loving government from... [Checks notes]
Capitalist enterprises!?
Wow this makes the May & Johnson years look competent.
Capitalist enterprises!?
Wow this makes the May & Johnson years look competent.