François Heisbourg

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 7h

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1404

1. Zelensky holds telcons with Euro NATO leaders. Meeting with Trump at 19h CET
2. 🇷🇺 claims fall of Huliaipole & Myrnohrad. 🇺🇦 denies
3. 🇨🇦 gives CDN $2.5 bn
4. Syzran (Samara obl) oil refinery hit (Yuganskneftegaz)
5. Repairs begin ZNPP (local cease fire)
6. 30 Shaheds; 9 sites hit

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 14h

⚡️Russia's Syzran Oil Refinery under attack by Ukrainian drones, media reports.

The refinery was attacked multiple times in the night, residents claimed. An electrical substation in Syzran was also hit, causing blackouts in the city.

Russia's Syzran Oil Refinery under attack by Ukrainian drones, media reports

The refinery was attacked multiple times in the night, residents claimed. An electrical substation in Syzran was also hit, causing blackouts in the city.

kyivindependent.com

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 17h

⚡️Ukraine denies Russia's claims of capturing key front-line cities ahead of Zelensky-Trump meeting.

Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are not under Russian control, Ukraine's General Staff said, dismissing the Kremlin's claims as "the weapon of disinformation."

Ukraine denies Russia's claims of capturing key front-line cities ahead of Zelensky-Trump meeting

Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are not under Russian control, Ukraine's General Staff said, dismissing the Kremlin's claims as "the weapon of disinformation."

kyivindependent.com

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 18h

*Iskander-M included in Kinzhal tally

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 18h

My annotations on last night's big raid:

6 out of 10 Kinzhal down

23 out of 29 cruise missiles down (Kh-101, Iskander-K, Kalibr)

Shaheds: ~300 launched, 30 hits

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Ukraine's Air Force reports on the massive drone and missile attack overnight.

Shot down:
474/519 Shahed and other type drones
6/10 Kh-47M2/Iskander-M ballistic missiles
23/30 Iskander-K/Kalibr/Kh-101/Kh-22 cruise missiles

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 18h

My annotations on last night's big raid:

6 out of 10 Kinzhal down

23 out of 29 cruise missiles down (Kh-101, Iskander-K, Kalibr)

Shaheds: ~300 launched, 30 hits

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Ukraine's Air Force reports on the massive drone and missile attack overnight.

Shot down:
474/519 Shahed and other type drones
6/10 Kh-47M2/Iskander-M ballistic missiles
23/30 Iskander-K/Kalibr/Kh-101/Kh-22 cruise missiles

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 21h

⚡️Canada to provide $1.8 billion in economic aid to Ukraine.

Canada will provide Ukraine with $2.5 billion Canadian dollars ($1.8 billion) in economic aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Dec. 27.

Canada to provide $1.8 billion in economic aid to Ukraine

Canada will provide Ukraine with $2.5 billion Canadian dollars ($1.8 billion) in economic aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Dec. 27.

kyivindependent.com

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1403

1. Massive bombing of Kyiv, including by Kinzhal as Zelensky prepares to meet Trump

2. Orezhnik base spotted at Kirchev in Belarus

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

May be a good time for 🇵🇱 to become a fully-fledged participant in NATO's nuclear sharing

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Russia is stationing new nuclear capable Oreshnik hypersonic missiles at a former airbase near Krichev in eastern Belarus. Satellite imagery suggests launch infrastructure is already in place. The move would extend Russia’s strike reach across Europe and signals deeper reliance on nuclear threats.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 1d

Russia is likely deploying nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missiles at a former airbase near Krichev in eastern Belarus, US researchers found from satellite imagery.

www.reuters.com/world/europe...

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Footage from Kyiv shows the moment a drone strikes a residential high rise in the Pozniaky district. Another direct and deliberate attack on civilian housing.

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Russia is stationing new nuclear capable Oreshnik hypersonic missiles at a former airbase near Krichev in eastern Belarus. Satellite imagery suggests launch infrastructure is already in place. The move would extend Russia’s strike reach across Europe and signals deeper reliance on nuclear threats.

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

(To be confirmed)

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 2d

Trump will meet Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday, Axios reporter Barak Ravid reported, citing a Ukrainian official.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 2d

Trump will meet Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday, Axios reporter Barak Ravid reported, citing a Ukrainian official.

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1402

1. Zelensky Xmas telcon with Witkoff & Jared: 'slow but steady progress'; says meeting with Trump soon
2. Orenburg obl. gas processing plant hit
3. Odesa/ Mikolayiv area ports/2 vessels hit
4. 26 leakers out of ~60 Shaheds. 1 Iskander-M strike

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

Next door to China and N
Korea

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 2d

Two explosions hit a parking lot of Russia's 80th Vitebsk Brigade, linked to war crimes in Ukraine, in Ussuriysk on December 24, HUR sources told Babel. Local media blamed welding but witnesses posted photos showing police and FSB on scene.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 2d

Two explosions hit a parking lot of Russia's 80th Vitebsk Brigade, linked to war crimes in Ukraine, in Ussuriysk on December 24, HUR sources told Babel. Local media blamed welding but witnesses posted photos showing police and FSB on scene.

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 2d

⚡️President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine and the U.S. had agreed to meet "in the near future," suggesting there could be progress in peace talks to end Russia's war before the New Year.

'A lot can be decided before New Year' — Zelensky says he and Trump plan to meet in 'near future'

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine and the U.S. had agreed to meet "in the near future," suggesting there could be progress in peace talks to end Russia's war before the New Year.

kyivindependent.com

CNN @cnn.com · 2d

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a “very good” conversation with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on Christmas Day as negotiations over the terms of a potential peace deal continued.

Ukrainian and US negotiators discuss peace deal on Christmas Day | CNN

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a “very good” conversation with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on Christmas Day as negotiations over th...

www.cnn.com

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 3d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1401

1. 🇺🇦 2025 ttarget of 3 million FPV drones being met

2. 2 oil storage tanks burning in Temryuk (Krasnodar)

3. Khanskaya (Maykop) military airfield burns

4. 22 leakers out of 90 Shaheds

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 3d

Estonia draws a clear red line. FM Margus Tsahkna says any so called green men crossing the border will be met with live fire, and Russian aircraft violating Estonian airspace risk being shot down. This is NATO territory. If Moscow doubts it, Tsahkna says bluntly, test us.

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 3d

In Kupyansk, Ukrainian forces are continuing to clear the city as the Russian grouping has lost the ability to hold its positions, the Joint Forces communication chief Viktor Tregubov says.

He reports that about 50 Russian servicemen remain in the city.

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 4d

⚡️ Ukraine election poll shows tight first round, decisive Zaluzhnyi runoff win over Zelensky.

In a hypothetical runoff between the two, Zaluzhnyi would secure a decisive victory, winning 64% of the vote compared to Zelensky's 36%, according to the poll.

Ukraine election poll shows tight first round, decisive Zaluzhnyi runoff win over Zelensky

In a hypothetical runoff between the two, Zaluzhnyi would secure a decisive victory, winning 64% of the vote compared to Zelensky's 36%, according to the poll.

kyivindependent.com

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 4d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1400

1. Siversk falls
2. Il-38 N naval patrol recce a/c destroyed
3. Zelensky details 20 point plan
4. US bans French former EU Commissioner Thierry Breton
5. 90 Shaheds, 48 leakers

Reuters @reuters.com · 4d

France condemns US visa ban imposed on ex-EU commissioner Breton reut.rs/4j9V88C

France condemns US visa ban imposed on ex-EU commissioner Breton

The French government condemned on Wednesday a visa ban imposed by the Trump administration on Thierry Breton, a former European Union commissioner who helped drive the EU's Digital Services Act, which has recently targeted top U.S. tech companies.

reut.rs

Ouest-France @ouest-france.fr · 4d

Deux policiers qui tentaient d’arrêter une personne suspecte ont été tués par un engin explosif à Moscou dans la nuit du mardi 23 au mercredi 24 décembre. L’explosion est survenue non loin de l’endroit où un général russe a perdu la vie cette semaine.

Russie : deux policiers ont été tués dans une explosion à Moscou

Deux policiers qui tentaient d’arrêter une personne suspecte ont été tués par un engin explosif à Moscou dans la nuit du mardi 23 au mercredi 24 décembre. L’explosion est survenue non loin de l’endroi...

www.ouest-france.fr

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 4d

President Zelensky for the first time outlined 20 points from his Peace Proposal for Ukraine.

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 5d

My tally of the big bombing night:

~400 Shaheds, only 35 leakers
(Other shot down or spoofed by EW)
3/3 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles lost

34/35 cruise missiles Kh-101 and Iskander-K

Not a great balance sheet for Russia

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 5d

Ukraine's Air Force reported on the combined missile and drone attack overnight.

Shot down:
587/635 Shahed and other type drones
0/3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
34/35 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles

Three Russian aeroballistic missiles failed to reach their targets.

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 5d

NBC News reports growing behind-the-scenes friction between Marco Rubio and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff over leadership in Ukraine peace talks. Witkoff has allegedly arranged high-level meetings, including with Ukraine and France, without Rubio’s knowledge, sparking internal confusion.

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 5d

Ukraine's Air Force reported on the combined missile and drone attack overnight.

Shot down:
587/635 Shahed and other type drones
0/3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
34/35 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles

Three Russian aeroballistic missiles failed to reach their targets.

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 5d

Hero of Ukraine Oleksandr Shemet, the Mi-24 pilot who led the final Azovstal supply mission in April 2022, has been killed. On December 17, while intercepting Shahed drones over Cherkasy, his helicopter went down. The entire crew died.

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