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The post-election pendulum is particularly dire for the Coalition. Using a national Labor 2PP of 55.25% (including @benraue.com’s estimate of Bradfield 2PP), the Coalition needs a 5.70% uniform 2PP swing or a 50.45% 2PP to win the same number of seats as it did in 2022 at the next federal election.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025... 2025 Federal Post-Election Pendulum
We now have a federal pendulum skew like Victoria at state level, without redistribution the Coalition could need 51% 2PP just to put Labor into minority.
We now have a federal pendulum skew like Victoria at state level, without redistribution the Coalition could need 51% 2PP just to put Labor into minority.
2025 Federal Post-Election Pendulum
Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com
July 13, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The post-election pendulum is particularly dire for the Coalition. Using a national Labor 2PP of 55.25% (including @benraue.com’s estimate of Bradfield 2PP), the Coalition needs a 5.70% uniform 2PP swing or a 50.45% 2PP to win the same number of seats as it did in 2022 at the next federal election.
It’s blatantly hypocritical for Dutton to castigate Labor for holding the $450m Voice referendum during a cost of living crisis, but then proposing to hold his own referendum that will be equally costly, will not get bipartisan support or go anywhere. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03...
Dutton's 'insane' referendum leaves some Liberals fuming
The ABC's conversations with almost a dozen senior Coalition figures have revealed widespread frustration and confusion about a referendum some say will take focus away from the cost of living.
www.abc.net.au
April 5, 2025 at 9:07 AM
It’s blatantly hypocritical for Dutton to castigate Labor for holding the $450m Voice referendum during a cost of living crisis, but then proposing to hold his own referendum that will be equally costly, will not get bipartisan support or go anywhere. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03...