Victoria Guida
@vtg2.bsky.social
Economics correspondent and columnist at Politico. Signal: vguida.28
Reposted by Victoria Guida
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Wall Street’s Top Cop Ushers In Lighter-Touch Oversight of Banks
www.nytimes.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:32 PM
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
NEWS: The Trump administration is calling on companies and organizations to sever ties with Larry Summers in the wake of new revelations about his relationship with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Senior Trump official tells institutions: Break up with Larry Summers
Emails revealed that Summers repeatedly sought advice from Epstein on romantically pursuing a woman he referred to as his mentee.
www.politico.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:08 PM
NEWS: The Trump administration is calling on companies and organizations to sever ties with Larry Summers in the wake of new revelations about his relationship with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
President Trump is eagerly awaiting the day he will have a new Fed chair, but in the race to replace Jay Powell, much of the conversation has focused on something that doesn’t feel particularly Trump-y.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
How Much Does Trump Really Want to Rein in the Fed?
Top contenders to lead the Federal Reserve under Trump are lining up around a policy that doesn’t seem Trump-like.
www.politico.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:04 PM
President Trump is eagerly awaiting the day he will have a new Fed chair, but in the race to replace Jay Powell, much of the conversation has focused on something that doesn’t feel particularly Trump-y.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Reposted by Victoria Guida
The choice between “big states” and private companies is a false one - smart states know how to catalyse private sector investment.
Read more in my conversation with @politico.com about how Biden and Trump differ in their approaches to U.S. industrial strategy ➡️ buff.ly/1fLtboY
Read more in my conversation with @politico.com about how Biden and Trump differ in their approaches to U.S. industrial strategy ➡️ buff.ly/1fLtboY
November 12, 2025 at 7:45 PM
The choice between “big states” and private companies is a false one - smart states know how to catalyse private sector investment.
Read more in my conversation with @politico.com about how Biden and Trump differ in their approaches to U.S. industrial strategy ➡️ buff.ly/1fLtboY
Read more in my conversation with @politico.com about how Biden and Trump differ in their approaches to U.S. industrial strategy ➡️ buff.ly/1fLtboY
“He’s actually weakening the economy by eliminating the very industrial strategy that led, in the past 50 to 100 years, companies like Intel to be born.”
I interviewed @mazzucatom.bsky.social for Politico Magazine on Trump’s brand of capitalism
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
I interviewed @mazzucatom.bsky.social for Politico Magazine on Trump’s brand of capitalism
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
‘He’s Actually Weakening the Economy’: Why Trump’s Strategy May Fail
A top economist says Trump is doing industrial policy all wrong.
www.politico.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:14 PM
“He’s actually weakening the economy by eliminating the very industrial strategy that led, in the past 50 to 100 years, companies like Intel to be born.”
I interviewed @mazzucatom.bsky.social for Politico Magazine on Trump’s brand of capitalism
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
I interviewed @mazzucatom.bsky.social for Politico Magazine on Trump’s brand of capitalism
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Reposted by Victoria Guida
Question from @vtg2.bsky.social : are you worried about a contraction in AI investment?
A: These companies actually have earnings. Clearly data centers are a source of growth. But consumer spending is much bigger than that and continues to defy forecasts this year. [my argument all the time!!!]
A: These companies actually have earnings. Clearly data centers are a source of growth. But consumer spending is much bigger than that and continues to defy forecasts this year. [my argument all the time!!!]
October 29, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Question from @vtg2.bsky.social : are you worried about a contraction in AI investment?
A: These companies actually have earnings. Clearly data centers are a source of growth. But consumer spending is much bigger than that and continues to defy forecasts this year. [my argument all the time!!!]
A: These companies actually have earnings. Clearly data centers are a source of growth. But consumer spending is much bigger than that and continues to defy forecasts this year. [my argument all the time!!!]
The Fed isn’t getting lots of data during the government shutdown, and the data it does have are confusing.
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Fed's data blackout deepens during shutdown
The lack of information is especially troubling now, with the central bank facing so many mixed signals on the economy.
www.politico.com
October 29, 2025 at 10:54 AM
The Fed isn’t getting lots of data during the government shutdown, and the data it does have are confusing.
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Reposted by Victoria Guida
Everything is terrible, but here is Proust on newspapers
October 25, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Everything is terrible, but here is Proust on newspapers
Reposted by Victoria Guida
Meanwhile @vtg2.bsky.social and I have a discussion in @politico.com today that places the Framework a little more firmly in intra-Democratic policy debates.
(With a social preview image that strongly implies Ezra Klein was a White House aide.) /8
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
(With a social preview image that strongly implies Ezra Klein was a White House aide.) /8
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways
Democrats are promising to take on the high cost of living. Can they even agree on what’s causing the affordability crisis?
www.politico.com
October 22, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Meanwhile @vtg2.bsky.social and I have a discussion in @politico.com today that places the Framework a little more firmly in intra-Democratic policy debates.
(With a social preview image that strongly implies Ezra Klein was a White House aide.) /8
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
(With a social preview image that strongly implies Ezra Klein was a White House aide.) /8
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Reposted by Victoria Guida
COLUMN: Dems vowed to take on the high cost of living. But they’ve yet to offer a cohesive solution — and there’s even disagreement about what’s causing the affordability crisis, writes @vtg2.bsky.social.
One former White House aide wants to help Dems resolve that.👇
One former White House aide wants to help Dems resolve that.👇
Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways
Democrats are promising to take on the high cost of living. Can they even agree on what’s causing the affordability crisis?
www.politico.com
October 22, 2025 at 2:06 PM
COLUMN: Dems vowed to take on the high cost of living. But they’ve yet to offer a cohesive solution — and there’s even disagreement about what’s causing the affordability crisis, writes @vtg2.bsky.social.
One former White House aide wants to help Dems resolve that.👇
One former White House aide wants to help Dems resolve that.👇
Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways
My Q&A with @mtkonczal.bsky.social on the politics and policy around affordability:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
My Q&A with @mtkonczal.bsky.social on the politics and policy around affordability:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways
Democrats are promising to take on the high cost of living. Can they even agree on what’s causing the affordability crisis?
www.politico.com
October 22, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways
My Q&A with @mtkonczal.bsky.social on the politics and policy around affordability:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
My Q&A with @mtkonczal.bsky.social on the politics and policy around affordability:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Democrats across the country are going all-in on attacking Trump’s global tariffs.
“The time is right for Democrats to lead again on trade,” Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told me.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
“The time is right for Democrats to lead again on trade,” Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told me.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Why Jared Polis Wants Democrats to Campaign on Free Trade
After years of trying to have it all ways on tariffs, Democrats are uniting in opposition to Trump’s global trade war.
www.politico.com
October 5, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Democrats across the country are going all-in on attacking Trump’s global tariffs.
“The time is right for Democrats to lead again on trade,” Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told me.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
“The time is right for Democrats to lead again on trade,” Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told me.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Reposted by Victoria Guida
Q from @vtg2.bsky.social: As markets have questions about Trump's intentions w/ the Fed, what would you point to as signs that the FOMC is making decisions on the economic outlook not the political picture?
A [paraphrasing]: Listen to communications, "you would be able to tell".
A [paraphrasing]: Listen to communications, "you would be able to tell".
September 17, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Q from @vtg2.bsky.social: As markets have questions about Trump's intentions w/ the Fed, what would you point to as signs that the FOMC is making decisions on the economic outlook not the political picture?
A [paraphrasing]: Listen to communications, "you would be able to tell".
A [paraphrasing]: Listen to communications, "you would be able to tell".
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is cutting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in a bid to protect the weakening job market, a move that is unlikely to end President Donald Trump’s broadsides against the central bank.
www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
Fed cuts rates as Trump adviser Miran presses central bank to go bigger
It was the central bank's first rate cut in Trump's second term and comes after months of strident attacks by the president on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
www.politico.com
September 17, 2025 at 6:37 PM
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is cutting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in a bid to protect the weakening job market, a move that is unlikely to end President Donald Trump’s broadsides against the central bank.
www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
Reposted by Victoria Guida
1/ In a recent article, @conorsen.bsky.social suggested once the pool of unemployed gets big enough, managers will start ramping up layoffs.
In the two relevant recessions for which we have JOLTS data, the relevant threshold (to the degree one exists) was around 5%.
cc @weisenthal.bsky.social
In the two relevant recessions for which we have JOLTS data, the relevant threshold (to the degree one exists) was around 5%.
cc @weisenthal.bsky.social
September 12, 2025 at 5:04 PM
1/ In a recent article, @conorsen.bsky.social suggested once the pool of unemployed gets big enough, managers will start ramping up layoffs.
In the two relevant recessions for which we have JOLTS data, the relevant threshold (to the degree one exists) was around 5%.
cc @weisenthal.bsky.social
In the two relevant recessions for which we have JOLTS data, the relevant threshold (to the degree one exists) was around 5%.
cc @weisenthal.bsky.social
Reposted by Victoria Guida
The stakes are very high. Fed is “for cause” or “at will”
Wall Street has shrugged off President Trump’s attempt to Lisa Cook, even as the matter is destined to reach the Supreme Court.
But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
The Real Stakes in Trump’s Bid to Fire Lisa Cook
If the court gives Trump authority to decide the grounds on which Fed board members can be ousted, it could create a pathway to removing other central bank officials.
www.politico.com
September 11, 2025 at 5:54 PM
The stakes are very high. Fed is “for cause” or “at will”
Wall Street has shrugged off President Trump’s attempt to Lisa Cook, even as the matter is destined to reach the Supreme Court.
But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
The Real Stakes in Trump’s Bid to Fire Lisa Cook
If the court gives Trump authority to decide the grounds on which Fed board members can be ousted, it could create a pathway to removing other central bank officials.
www.politico.com
September 11, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Wall Street has shrugged off President Trump’s attempt to Lisa Cook, even as the matter is destined to reach the Supreme Court.
But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee for an open seat on the Federal Reserve, said he would take an unpaid leave of absence from his current role at the White House rather than resign.
www.politico.com/live-updates...
www.politico.com/live-updates...
Trump adviser Miran will take unpaid leave from White House if confirmed to Fed
His comment drew criticism from Senate Banking Democrats, who suggested it would compromise his independence from the White House.
www.politico.com
September 4, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee for an open seat on the Federal Reserve, said he would take an unpaid leave of absence from his current role at the White House rather than resign.
www.politico.com/live-updates...
www.politico.com/live-updates...
Reposted by Victoria Guida
NEW COLUMN: People are applauding Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum for her handling of US President Donald Trump. But why? Because not losing is what counts as winning in global leadership today. (Also read for some intriguing nuggets at the end of this piece.) www.politico.com/news/magazin...
‘The Bar for Success is Negative’: Claudia Sheinbaum’s Approach to Trump is a Warning Sign
The U.S. president is largely defeating his counterparts.
www.politico.com
August 31, 2025 at 4:31 PM
NEW COLUMN: People are applauding Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum for her handling of US President Donald Trump. But why? Because not losing is what counts as winning in global leadership today. (Also read for some intriguing nuggets at the end of this piece.) www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Much as I love the convenience of streaming services…. I’m kinda ready to bring back Blockbuster
August 30, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Much as I love the convenience of streaming services…. I’m kinda ready to bring back Blockbuster
Reposted by Victoria Guida
NEW: Judge Cobb gave no hint about how she might rule on Lisa Cook’s firing, and the uncertainty is likely to linger into next week as she seeks further argument on the issue.
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @vtg2.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @vtg2.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Judge weighs Trump’s power to fire Fed board member
But the judge issued no immediate decision on Lisa Cook’s status and likely will not rule until next week.
www.politico.com
August 29, 2025 at 8:52 PM
NEW: Judge Cobb gave no hint about how she might rule on Lisa Cook’s firing, and the uncertainty is likely to linger into next week as she seeks further argument on the issue.
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @vtg2.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @vtg2.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Reposted by Victoria Guida
COLUMN: Trump is testing the Fed’s "don’t panic" strategy, writes our @vtg2.bsky.social.
Trump Tests The Fed’s ‘Don’t Panic’ Strategy
The ultra-calculating central bank tried to put off confrontation with Trump for as long as possible. Now, time’s running out.
www.politico.com
August 27, 2025 at 3:50 PM
COLUMN: Trump is testing the Fed’s "don’t panic" strategy, writes our @vtg2.bsky.social.
Reposted by Victoria Guida
Scott Alvarez, who served as the Fed’s general counsel, said the Trump-Cook clash presented a dilemma with swirling unknowns for the Fed.
“Do they walk out on an innocent person, or do they keep a guilty person?” Alvarez said. “They don’t want to be the one that decides that kind of thing.”
“Do they walk out on an innocent person, or do they keep a guilty person?” Alvarez said. “They don’t want to be the one that decides that kind of thing.”
The Fed’s response to President Trump’s attempted firing of Lisa Cook is characteristic of the Powell era: the subtlest, least controversial form of resistance.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Trump Tests The Fed’s ‘Don’t Panic’ Strategy
The ultra-calculating central bank tried to put off confrontation with Trump for as long as possible. Now, time’s running out.
www.politico.com
August 27, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Scott Alvarez, who served as the Fed’s general counsel, said the Trump-Cook clash presented a dilemma with swirling unknowns for the Fed.
“Do they walk out on an innocent person, or do they keep a guilty person?” Alvarez said. “They don’t want to be the one that decides that kind of thing.”
“Do they walk out on an innocent person, or do they keep a guilty person?” Alvarez said. “They don’t want to be the one that decides that kind of thing.”
The Fed’s response to President Trump’s attempted firing of Lisa Cook is characteristic of the Powell era: the subtlest, least controversial form of resistance.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Trump Tests The Fed’s ‘Don’t Panic’ Strategy
The ultra-calculating central bank tried to put off confrontation with Trump for as long as possible. Now, time’s running out.
www.politico.com
August 27, 2025 at 12:39 PM
The Fed’s response to President Trump’s attempted firing of Lisa Cook is characteristic of the Powell era: the subtlest, least controversial form of resistance.
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
My latest column:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted Friday that the Fed might cut interest rates soon but added a subtle bit of context: It’s not because President Donald Trump is pressuring him.
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Fed's Powell opens door to rate cut amid Trump pressure
The Fed chair said the decision would be based on incoming economic data, signaling it was not a response to the president's call for lower borrowing costs.
www.politico.com
August 22, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted Friday that the Fed might cut interest rates soon but added a subtle bit of context: It’s not because President Donald Trump is pressuring him.
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...