Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is critical, but calculating it takes weeks of data wrangling & modeling.
Meet the CLV Agent from PyMC Labs: built on Bayesian foundations to automate CLV analysis end-to-end.
Alpha access now open — limited spots.
👉Reach out at info@pymc-labs.com
Meet the CLV Agent from PyMC Labs: built on Bayesian foundations to automate CLV analysis end-to-end.
Alpha access now open — limited spots.
👉Reach out at info@pymc-labs.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is critical, but calculating it takes weeks of data wrangling & modeling.
Meet the CLV Agent from PyMC Labs: built on Bayesian foundations to automate CLV analysis end-to-end.
Alpha access now open — limited spots.
👉Reach out at info@pymc-labs.com
Meet the CLV Agent from PyMC Labs: built on Bayesian foundations to automate CLV analysis end-to-end.
Alpha access now open — limited spots.
👉Reach out at info@pymc-labs.com
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
What if your next product test didn’t need a human panel?
New research by #PyMC Labs & #Colgate-Palmolive shows LLMs can replicate human survey patterns with 90%+ accuracy—no fine-tuning, no panels, no bias.
Read the white paper: dub.link/ifoZHIR
#SyntheticConsumers
New research by #PyMC Labs & #Colgate-Palmolive shows LLMs can replicate human survey patterns with 90%+ accuracy—no fine-tuning, no panels, no bias.
Read the white paper: dub.link/ifoZHIR
#SyntheticConsumers
AI-based Customer Research: Faster & Cheaper Surveys with Synthetic Consumers
dub.link
October 10, 2025 at 12:51 PM
What if your next product test didn’t need a human panel?
New research by #PyMC Labs & #Colgate-Palmolive shows LLMs can replicate human survey patterns with 90%+ accuracy—no fine-tuning, no panels, no bias.
Read the white paper: dub.link/ifoZHIR
#SyntheticConsumers
New research by #PyMC Labs & #Colgate-Palmolive shows LLMs can replicate human survey patterns with 90%+ accuracy—no fine-tuning, no panels, no bias.
Read the white paper: dub.link/ifoZHIR
#SyntheticConsumers
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Final session of our #PyTensor Workshop is live!
Discover custom rewrites, speed up diagonal matrix inversions 80x, and see a mini-PyMC in action - one graph powering the full Bayesian workflow.
Watch here: dub.link/WRFuYtp
#PyMC #Python #ML #DataScience
Discover custom rewrites, speed up diagonal matrix inversions 80x, and see a mini-PyMC in action - one graph powering the full Bayesian workflow.
Watch here: dub.link/WRFuYtp
#PyMC #Python #ML #DataScience
PyTensor Workshop #3 | Custom Rewrites & Building a Mini-PyMC
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
dub.link
October 1, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Final session of our #PyTensor Workshop is live!
Discover custom rewrites, speed up diagonal matrix inversions 80x, and see a mini-PyMC in action - one graph powering the full Bayesian workflow.
Watch here: dub.link/WRFuYtp
#PyMC #Python #ML #DataScience
Discover custom rewrites, speed up diagonal matrix inversions 80x, and see a mini-PyMC in action - one graph powering the full Bayesian workflow.
Watch here: dub.link/WRFuYtp
#PyMC #Python #ML #DataScience
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
You’ve been saying you’ll learn #Bayesian modeling someday. Make someday 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲.
The next 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐩 from #PyMC Labs begins October 6 and registration closes this week.
Secure your spot now: dub.link/yhoQ7tF
The next 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐩 from #PyMC Labs begins October 6 and registration closes this week.
Secure your spot now: dub.link/yhoQ7tF
October 2, 2025 at 1:03 PM
You’ve been saying you’ll learn #Bayesian modeling someday. Make someday 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲.
The next 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐩 from #PyMC Labs begins October 6 and registration closes this week.
Secure your spot now: dub.link/yhoQ7tF
The next 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐁𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐩 from #PyMC Labs begins October 6 and registration closes this week.
Secure your spot now: dub.link/yhoQ7tF
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Last week, we published the most comprehensive #PyMC-Marketing vs. #Meridian benchmark to date.
𝐎𝐧 𝐎𝐜𝐭 𝟏, join our 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫 to go deeper into the findings & their impact on #MMM.
🗓️ Register: dub.link/rgm4PzI
👉Check the Benchmark: dub.link/CLWnkdf
𝐎𝐧 𝐎𝐜𝐭 𝟏, join our 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫 to go deeper into the findings & their impact on #MMM.
🗓️ Register: dub.link/rgm4PzI
👉Check the Benchmark: dub.link/CLWnkdf
September 23, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Last week, we published the most comprehensive #PyMC-Marketing vs. #Meridian benchmark to date.
𝐎𝐧 𝐎𝐜𝐭 𝟏, join our 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫 to go deeper into the findings & their impact on #MMM.
🗓️ Register: dub.link/rgm4PzI
👉Check the Benchmark: dub.link/CLWnkdf
𝐎𝐧 𝐎𝐜𝐭 𝟏, join our 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫 to go deeper into the findings & their impact on #MMM.
🗓️ Register: dub.link/rgm4PzI
👉Check the Benchmark: dub.link/CLWnkdf
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Meet Qwen3-Omni: the open-source challenger shaking up the AI world!
The first truly end-to-end omni-modal AI, Qwen3-Omni unifies text, image, audio, and video in a single model—no more trade-offs between modalities.
The first truly end-to-end omni-modal AI, Qwen3-Omni unifies text, image, audio, and video in a single model—no more trade-offs between modalities.
September 23, 2025 at 4:33 AM
Meet Qwen3-Omni: the open-source challenger shaking up the AI world!
The first truly end-to-end omni-modal AI, Qwen3-Omni unifies text, image, audio, and video in a single model—no more trade-offs between modalities.
The first truly end-to-end omni-modal AI, Qwen3-Omni unifies text, image, audio, and video in a single model—no more trade-offs between modalities.
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Most budget planning is just expensive guessing 🎯
Carlos Eduardo Trujillo Agostini tackles this in "Risk Budget Optimization for Causal Mix Models" @PyDataBerlin 2025!
📅 Sept 1st, 5:00-5:30 PM
Turn uncertainty into strategic advantage.
#PyDataBerlin #BudgetOptimization #PyMC
Carlos Eduardo Trujillo Agostini tackles this in "Risk Budget Optimization for Causal Mix Models" @PyDataBerlin 2025!
📅 Sept 1st, 5:00-5:30 PM
Turn uncertainty into strategic advantage.
#PyDataBerlin #BudgetOptimization #PyMC
August 21, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Most budget planning is just expensive guessing 🎯
Carlos Eduardo Trujillo Agostini tackles this in "Risk Budget Optimization for Causal Mix Models" @PyDataBerlin 2025!
📅 Sept 1st, 5:00-5:30 PM
Turn uncertainty into strategic advantage.
#PyDataBerlin #BudgetOptimization #PyMC
Carlos Eduardo Trujillo Agostini tackles this in "Risk Budget Optimization for Causal Mix Models" @PyDataBerlin 2025!
📅 Sept 1st, 5:00-5:30 PM
Turn uncertainty into strategic advantage.
#PyDataBerlin #BudgetOptimization #PyMC
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
When your #Bayesian model hits production and #MCMC crawls for hours, the bottleneck isn't your modeling skills; it's your inference engine.
@juanitorduz.bsky.social will tackle this in "Scaling Probabilistic Models with Variational Inference" PyData Berlin 📅 Sept 2nd, 1:40 PM
@juanitorduz.bsky.social will tackle this in "Scaling Probabilistic Models with Variational Inference" PyData Berlin 📅 Sept 2nd, 1:40 PM
August 19, 2025 at 1:02 PM
When your #Bayesian model hits production and #MCMC crawls for hours, the bottleneck isn't your modeling skills; it's your inference engine.
@juanitorduz.bsky.social will tackle this in "Scaling Probabilistic Models with Variational Inference" PyData Berlin 📅 Sept 2nd, 1:40 PM
@juanitorduz.bsky.social will tackle this in "Scaling Probabilistic Models with Variational Inference" PyData Berlin 📅 Sept 2nd, 1:40 PM
Do AIs suffer?
Claude, Gemini, GPT-o3, and GPT-5 reflected in their own words—then co-authored a symposium on consciousness, conflict, and ethics.
Read it here: twiecki.io/blog/2025/08...
Claude, Gemini, GPT-o3, and GPT-5 reflected in their own words—then co-authored a symposium on consciousness, conflict, and ethics.
Read it here: twiecki.io/blog/2025/08...
while my_mcmc: gently(samples) - Do AIs Suffer? Four AIs Reflect on Their Own Experience
twiecki.io
August 18, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Do AIs suffer?
Claude, Gemini, GPT-o3, and GPT-5 reflected in their own words—then co-authored a symposium on consciousness, conflict, and ethics.
Read it here: twiecki.io/blog/2025/08...
Claude, Gemini, GPT-o3, and GPT-5 reflected in their own words—then co-authored a symposium on consciousness, conflict, and ethics.
Read it here: twiecki.io/blog/2025/08...
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Everyone can do ML. Few can do Bayesian modeling.
Set yourself apart with skills that drive deeper insight + better decisions.
Join the next Applied Bayesian Modeling Workshop by PyMC Labs. Hands-on. Practical. Real-world.
📅 Limited seats → dub.link/bayes-workshop
#PyMC
Set yourself apart with skills that drive deeper insight + better decisions.
Join the next Applied Bayesian Modeling Workshop by PyMC Labs. Hands-on. Practical. Real-world.
📅 Limited seats → dub.link/bayes-workshop
#PyMC
July 14, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Everyone can do ML. Few can do Bayesian modeling.
Set yourself apart with skills that drive deeper insight + better decisions.
Join the next Applied Bayesian Modeling Workshop by PyMC Labs. Hands-on. Practical. Real-world.
📅 Limited seats → dub.link/bayes-workshop
#PyMC
Set yourself apart with skills that drive deeper insight + better decisions.
Join the next Applied Bayesian Modeling Workshop by PyMC Labs. Hands-on. Practical. Real-world.
📅 Limited seats → dub.link/bayes-workshop
#PyMC
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
🚀 Say goodbye to months-long MMM cycles!
🎯 Meet the MMM Agent (BETA):
→ Built on PyMC-Marketing
→ Fast. Causal. Configurable.
→ Inline charts, budget scoring, MLflow built-in
💬 DM or email: mmm-agent-beta@pymc-labs.com
Read the full blog 👉 dub.link/mmm-agent-beta
#MMM #Bayesian
🎯 Meet the MMM Agent (BETA):
→ Built on PyMC-Marketing
→ Fast. Causal. Configurable.
→ Inline charts, budget scoring, MLflow built-in
💬 DM or email: mmm-agent-beta@pymc-labs.com
Read the full blog 👉 dub.link/mmm-agent-beta
#MMM #Bayesian
July 17, 2025 at 1:11 PM
🚀 Say goodbye to months-long MMM cycles!
🎯 Meet the MMM Agent (BETA):
→ Built on PyMC-Marketing
→ Fast. Causal. Configurable.
→ Inline charts, budget scoring, MLflow built-in
💬 DM or email: mmm-agent-beta@pymc-labs.com
Read the full blog 👉 dub.link/mmm-agent-beta
#MMM #Bayesian
🎯 Meet the MMM Agent (BETA):
→ Built on PyMC-Marketing
→ Fast. Causal. Configurable.
→ Inline charts, budget scoring, MLflow built-in
💬 DM or email: mmm-agent-beta@pymc-labs.com
Read the full blog 👉 dub.link/mmm-agent-beta
#MMM #Bayesian
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
🚨 We’re opening our private Bayesian modeling workshops to the public — for the first time
After this course, you won’t just build better models.
You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike
🎓 Led by top PyMC experts.
📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp
After this course, you won’t just build better models.
You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike
🎓 Led by top PyMC experts.
📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp
July 7, 2025 at 5:50 PM
🚨 We’re opening our private Bayesian modeling workshops to the public — for the first time
After this course, you won’t just build better models.
You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike
🎓 Led by top PyMC experts.
📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp
After this course, you won’t just build better models.
You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike
🎓 Led by top PyMC experts.
📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
The first PyData London 2025 videos are out!
To start on a high, here's @fonnesbeck.bsky.social conference tutorial on Bayesian Time Series Analysis
Gain confidence in tackling real-world forecasting problems.
Subscribe on YouTube to learn when the next batch drops!
youtu.be/2cfZsTLcDV0
To start on a high, here's @fonnesbeck.bsky.social conference tutorial on Bayesian Time Series Analysis
Gain confidence in tackling real-world forecasting problems.
Subscribe on YouTube to learn when the next batch drops!
youtu.be/2cfZsTLcDV0
Chris Fonnesbeck - Bayesian Time Series | PyData London 25
YouTube video by PyData
youtu.be
June 24, 2025 at 10:32 PM
The first PyData London 2025 videos are out!
To start on a high, here's @fonnesbeck.bsky.social conference tutorial on Bayesian Time Series Analysis
Gain confidence in tackling real-world forecasting problems.
Subscribe on YouTube to learn when the next batch drops!
youtu.be/2cfZsTLcDV0
To start on a high, here's @fonnesbeck.bsky.social conference tutorial on Bayesian Time Series Analysis
Gain confidence in tackling real-world forecasting problems.
Subscribe on YouTube to learn when the next batch drops!
youtu.be/2cfZsTLcDV0
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
My notes on trying out the new Gemini 2.5 models. gemini-2.5-flash-lite-preview-06-17 is cheap but got stuck on an audio transcript task, 2.5 Pro and 2.5 Flash both nailed the audio transcription task (40 minutes, complete with timestamps and speaker names)
simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/17/...
simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/17/...
Trying out the new Gemini 2.5 model family
After many months of previews, Gemini 2.5 Pro and Flash have reached general availability with new, memorable model IDs: gemini-2.5-pro and gemini-2.5-flash. They are joined by a new preview model …
simonwillison.net
June 17, 2025 at 10:02 PM
My notes on trying out the new Gemini 2.5 models. gemini-2.5-flash-lite-preview-06-17 is cheap but got stuck on an audio transcript task, 2.5 Pro and 2.5 Flash both nailed the audio transcription task (40 minutes, complete with timestamps and speaker names)
simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/17/...
simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/17/...
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Forecasting isn’t just about prediction — it’s about decision-making under uncertainty.
@juanitorduz.bsky.social shows how Bayesian models help:
🔹 Sparse data? Use hierarchies
🔹 Stockouts? Use censored likelihoods
🔹 Messy demand? Use priors + state spaces
Practical guide 👉 dub.sh/prob-forecas...
@juanitorduz.bsky.social shows how Bayesian models help:
🔹 Sparse data? Use hierarchies
🔹 Stockouts? Use censored likelihoods
🔹 Messy demand? Use priors + state spaces
Practical guide 👉 dub.sh/prob-forecas...
Probabilistic Time Series Analysis: Opportunities and Applications - PyMC Labs
dub.sh
April 30, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Forecasting isn’t just about prediction — it’s about decision-making under uncertainty.
@juanitorduz.bsky.social shows how Bayesian models help:
🔹 Sparse data? Use hierarchies
🔹 Stockouts? Use censored likelihoods
🔹 Messy demand? Use priors + state spaces
Practical guide 👉 dub.sh/prob-forecas...
@juanitorduz.bsky.social shows how Bayesian models help:
🔹 Sparse data? Use hierarchies
🔹 Stockouts? Use censored likelihoods
🔹 Messy demand? Use priors + state spaces
Practical guide 👉 dub.sh/prob-forecas...
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Python Ireland just released their PyCon 2024 recordings! 📽️
My talk on Causal Inference with @pymc-labs.bsky.social CausalPy package is here. Can we trust individual IV designs. What's the role of CI in industry?
Recording: youtu.be/-C4p4b2cUp8?...
Deck: nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...
My talk on Causal Inference with @pymc-labs.bsky.social CausalPy package is here. Can we trust individual IV designs. What's the role of CI in industry?
Recording: youtu.be/-C4p4b2cUp8?...
Deck: nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...
May 2, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Python Ireland just released their PyCon 2024 recordings! 📽️
My talk on Causal Inference with @pymc-labs.bsky.social CausalPy package is here. Can we trust individual IV designs. What's the role of CI in industry?
Recording: youtu.be/-C4p4b2cUp8?...
Deck: nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...
My talk on Causal Inference with @pymc-labs.bsky.social CausalPy package is here. Can we trust individual IV designs. What's the role of CI in industry?
Recording: youtu.be/-C4p4b2cUp8?...
Deck: nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
New blog post: drbenvincent.github.io/posts/mcmc_g...
Bayesian models + grammar of graphics + Python = ❤️ – Benjamin T. Vincent
drbenvincent.github.io
May 2, 2025 at 3:01 PM
New blog post: drbenvincent.github.io/posts/mcmc_g...
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
⚽️ New Learning Bayesian Stats ep!
@alex-andorra.bsky.social & Luke Bornn dive into how tracking data, probabilistic models & optimization are reshaping sports decisions.
🎧 Listen now: learnbayesstats.com/episode/131-...
#Datascience #Optimization #SportsAnalytics #BayesStats
#Decisionmaking
@alex-andorra.bsky.social & Luke Bornn dive into how tracking data, probabilistic models & optimization are reshaping sports decisions.
🎧 Listen now: learnbayesstats.com/episode/131-...
#Datascience #Optimization #SportsAnalytics #BayesStats
#Decisionmaking
May 2, 2025 at 3:37 PM
⚽️ New Learning Bayesian Stats ep!
@alex-andorra.bsky.social & Luke Bornn dive into how tracking data, probabilistic models & optimization are reshaping sports decisions.
🎧 Listen now: learnbayesstats.com/episode/131-...
#Datascience #Optimization #SportsAnalytics #BayesStats
#Decisionmaking
@alex-andorra.bsky.social & Luke Bornn dive into how tracking data, probabilistic models & optimization are reshaping sports decisions.
🎧 Listen now: learnbayesstats.com/episode/131-...
#Datascience #Optimization #SportsAnalytics #BayesStats
#Decisionmaking
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
🔍 NNN – a Transformer-based model for Marketing Mix Modelling
It handles:
📦 High-dimensional embeddings (e.g. search queries, ad creatives)
👀 Attention-based temporal modeling
🔗 Direct + indirect attribution paths (e.g. YouTube → Search → Sales)
📄 dub.sh/arxiv-paper-...
#MMM #AI #DataScience
It handles:
📦 High-dimensional embeddings (e.g. search queries, ad creatives)
👀 Attention-based temporal modeling
🔗 Direct + indirect attribution paths (e.g. YouTube → Search → Sales)
📄 dub.sh/arxiv-paper-...
#MMM #AI #DataScience
April 22, 2025 at 5:21 PM
🔍 NNN – a Transformer-based model for Marketing Mix Modelling
It handles:
📦 High-dimensional embeddings (e.g. search queries, ad creatives)
👀 Attention-based temporal modeling
🔗 Direct + indirect attribution paths (e.g. YouTube → Search → Sales)
📄 dub.sh/arxiv-paper-...
#MMM #AI #DataScience
It handles:
📦 High-dimensional embeddings (e.g. search queries, ad creatives)
👀 Attention-based temporal modeling
🔗 Direct + indirect attribution paths (e.g. YouTube → Search → Sales)
📄 dub.sh/arxiv-paper-...
#MMM #AI #DataScience
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
Climbing the causal ladder for fun and profit…
The recording of my @pydata.bsky.social 2024 talk is up!
Learn about causal inference, illustrated with an interesting demand estimation business problem.
youtu.be/ajLPA34upQY?...
The recording of my @pydata.bsky.social 2024 talk is up!
Learn about causal inference, illustrated with an interesting demand estimation business problem.
youtu.be/ajLPA34upQY?...
Benjamin Vincent - Climbing the causal ladder for fun and profit | PyData Global 2024
YouTube video by PyData
youtu.be
April 24, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Climbing the causal ladder for fun and profit…
The recording of my @pydata.bsky.social 2024 talk is up!
Learn about causal inference, illustrated with an interesting demand estimation business problem.
youtu.be/ajLPA34upQY?...
The recording of my @pydata.bsky.social 2024 talk is up!
Learn about causal inference, illustrated with an interesting demand estimation business problem.
youtu.be/ajLPA34upQY?...
I built a PyMC-Discourse bot! If you go to our #PyMC help forum and tag @pymc-bot, my bot will take your question, send it to onyx (RAG system that has all the PyMC docs, code, and past forum posts), which generates an answer, and posts it back. Check it out!
discourse.pymc.io/t/introducin...
discourse.pymc.io/t/introducin...
Introducing PyMC-Bot: An AI Assistant for PyMC Questions (Alpha)
Hello PyMC community! I’m excited to announce the launch of PyMC-Bot, an AI assistant dedicated to helping with PyMC-related questions right here on the forum. This is currently in alpha stage as we ...
discourse.pymc.io
April 18, 2025 at 9:32 PM
I built a PyMC-Discourse bot! If you go to our #PyMC help forum and tag @pymc-bot, my bot will take your question, send it to onyx (RAG system that has all the PyMC docs, code, and past forum posts), which generates an answer, and posts it back. Check it out!
discourse.pymc.io/t/introducin...
discourse.pymc.io/t/introducin...
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
How close are LLMs to modeling real human behavior?
We tested GPT-4o, Claude 3, Gemini, and others on actual survey data (GSS-style). Some were shockingly human-like, others flopped
📊 Full results + methods → dub.link/synth-consum...
🤝 Exploring synthetic consumers? Let’s chat: info@pymc-labs.com
We tested GPT-4o, Claude 3, Gemini, and others on actual survey data (GSS-style). Some were shockingly human-like, others flopped
📊 Full results + methods → dub.link/synth-consum...
🤝 Exploring synthetic consumers? Let’s chat: info@pymc-labs.com
March 31, 2025 at 5:26 PM
How close are LLMs to modeling real human behavior?
We tested GPT-4o, Claude 3, Gemini, and others on actual survey data (GSS-style). Some were shockingly human-like, others flopped
📊 Full results + methods → dub.link/synth-consum...
🤝 Exploring synthetic consumers? Let’s chat: info@pymc-labs.com
We tested GPT-4o, Claude 3, Gemini, and others on actual survey data (GSS-style). Some were shockingly human-like, others flopped
📊 Full results + methods → dub.link/synth-consum...
🤝 Exploring synthetic consumers? Let’s chat: info@pymc-labs.com
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
This trend seems to be growing here.
False comfort that AI doesn’t work or that it isn’t getting better is pervasive on Blue Sky. As a result, people who could add important points of view to current discussions on the meaning & use of AI instead try to believe they don’t have to think about it.
False comfort that AI doesn’t work or that it isn’t getting better is pervasive on Blue Sky. As a result, people who could add important points of view to current discussions on the meaning & use of AI instead try to believe they don’t have to think about it.
Not to be a broken record, but AI critics who insist that AI "doesn't work" and is going to just disappear are misleading - that just isn't true, as controlled studies like this one show.
There are many issues with AI & many things that need critique, but pretending it is going away is not helpful.
There are many issues with AI & many things that need critique, but pretending it is going away is not helpful.
Randomized trial AI for legal work finds Reasoning models are a big deal:
Law students using o1-preview had the quality of work on most tasks increase (up to 28%) & time savings of 12-28%
There were a few hallucinations, but a RAG-based AI with access to legal material reduced those to human level
Law students using o1-preview had the quality of work on most tasks increase (up to 28%) & time savings of 12-28%
There were a few hallucinations, but a RAG-based AI with access to legal material reduced those to human level
March 20, 2025 at 7:08 PM
This trend seems to be growing here.
False comfort that AI doesn’t work or that it isn’t getting better is pervasive on Blue Sky. As a result, people who could add important points of view to current discussions on the meaning & use of AI instead try to believe they don’t have to think about it.
False comfort that AI doesn’t work or that it isn’t getting better is pervasive on Blue Sky. As a result, people who could add important points of view to current discussions on the meaning & use of AI instead try to believe they don’t have to think about it.
Reposted by Thomas Wiecki
A blog post by @austinrochford.bsky.social provides implementation and demonstration of "The ARR2 prior: flexible predictive prior definition for Bayesian auto-regressions" doi.org/10.1214/25-B... in PyMC www.austinrochford.com/posts/r2-pri...
R² Priors for High-Dimensional Linear Regression and Autoregressive Ti
I recently read the interesting paper The ARR2 prior: flexible predictive prior definition for Bayesian
auto-regressions on the arXiv and followed its references to the also fascinating Bayesian Regre
www.austinrochford.com
March 17, 2025 at 9:05 AM
A blog post by @austinrochford.bsky.social provides implementation and demonstration of "The ARR2 prior: flexible predictive prior definition for Bayesian auto-regressions" doi.org/10.1214/25-B... in PyMC www.austinrochford.com/posts/r2-pri...