Nathaniel Forde
@nathanielforde.bsky.social
Pinned
This last 12 months or so was intense and fun both professionally and personally. Thanks owed @benvincent.bsky.social , @twiecki.bsky.social, @alex-andorra.bsky.social and all the pymc devs! Looking forward to 2025 @pymc-devs.bsky.social My #pymc, #opensource year-in-review:
New blog post: The Legibility Trap - Why Organizations Fail in Lockstep
I stress test the Condorcet Jury theorem with Bayesian Item Response models and @pymc.io
Highlighting the role and importance of diversity in collective decision making
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
I stress test the Condorcet Jury theorem with Bayesian Item Response models and @pymc.io
Highlighting the role and importance of diversity in collective decision making
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
January 29, 2026 at 9:43 PM
New blog post: The Legibility Trap - Why Organizations Fail in Lockstep
I stress test the Condorcet Jury theorem with Bayesian Item Response models and @pymc.io
Highlighting the role and importance of diversity in collective decision making
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
I stress test the Condorcet Jury theorem with Bayesian Item Response models and @pymc.io
Highlighting the role and importance of diversity in collective decision making
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
📘 Mixed Logit (Random Coefficients Logit) is now documented & available in @pymc-labs.bsky.social 's pymc-marketing
www.pymc-marketing.io/en/latest/no...
We’ve added a full mixed logit implementation to the consumer choice module.
🧵⬇️
www.pymc-marketing.io/en/latest/no...
We’ve added a full mixed logit implementation to the consumer choice module.
🧵⬇️
January 20, 2026 at 10:16 PM
📘 Mixed Logit (Random Coefficients Logit) is now documented & available in @pymc-labs.bsky.social 's pymc-marketing
www.pymc-marketing.io/en/latest/no...
We’ve added a full mixed logit implementation to the consumer choice module.
🧵⬇️
www.pymc-marketing.io/en/latest/no...
We’ve added a full mixed logit implementation to the consumer choice module.
🧵⬇️
New tutorial: Bayesian Dynamic Path Analysis in @pymc.io
Why do New Year's resolutions fail so reliably? The statistical answer involves time-varying causal effects and masked mediation.
Full tutorial (code + math + Odyssey metaphor): nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
🧵 Thread Below
Why do New Year's resolutions fail so reliably? The statistical answer involves time-varying causal effects and masked mediation.
Full tutorial (code + math + Odyssey metaphor): nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
🧵 Thread Below
January 4, 2026 at 11:00 PM
New tutorial: Bayesian Dynamic Path Analysis in @pymc.io
Why do New Year's resolutions fail so reliably? The statistical answer involves time-varying causal effects and masked mediation.
Full tutorial (code + math + Odyssey metaphor): nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
🧵 Thread Below
Why do New Year's resolutions fail so reliably? The statistical answer involves time-varying causal effects and masked mediation.
Full tutorial (code + math + Odyssey metaphor): nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
🧵 Thread Below
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Final blogpost of the year: in which I enthuse about Alex Meehan and Snow Zhang’s excellent recent paper ‘Bayes is Back’!
Bayesianism when learning isn't straightforward
Occasionally, you come across a paper you like so much, you feel the need to evangelise about it.
open.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Final blogpost of the year: in which I enthuse about Alex Meehan and Snow Zhang’s excellent recent paper ‘Bayes is Back’!
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
December 9, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
The next online installment of ESTIMATE: The Reduced Form is coming on Dec 11-12. I've continued to unify and expand regression-based methods to apply to exit, non-binary treatments, DDD, discrete outcomes, and more.
All proceeds to the MSU economics PhD program.
econ.msu.edu/academics/es...
All proceeds to the MSU economics PhD program.
econ.msu.edu/academics/es...
Estimate Reduced Form | Economics | Michigan State University
econ.msu.edu
November 16, 2025 at 3:43 PM
The next online installment of ESTIMATE: The Reduced Form is coming on Dec 11-12. I've continued to unify and expand regression-based methods to apply to exit, non-binary treatments, DDD, discrete outcomes, and more.
All proceeds to the MSU economics PhD program.
econ.msu.edu/academics/es...
All proceeds to the MSU economics PhD program.
econ.msu.edu/academics/es...
🧵 I spoke yesterday at @python.org's PyCon Ireland 2025 at UCD on Bayesian workflows + Structural Equation Models (SEMs) — exploring how we can infer latent preferences from noisy behavioural signals.
youtu.be/NS7SjHDSdmA?...
youtu.be/NS7SjHDSdmA?...
Nathaniel Forde - Bayesian Workflow - PyCon Ireland 2025
YouTube video by Nathaniel Forde
youtu.be
November 16, 2025 at 9:09 AM
🧵 I spoke yesterday at @python.org's PyCon Ireland 2025 at UCD on Bayesian workflows + Structural Equation Models (SEMs) — exploring how we can infer latent preferences from noisy behavioural signals.
youtu.be/NS7SjHDSdmA?...
youtu.be/NS7SjHDSdmA?...
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
🧵
🧵
The official home of the Python Programming Language
www.python.org
October 27, 2025 at 2:47 PM
TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-...
🧵
🧵
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
This may just be the best CS paper I’ve read this year. Just read the abstract and first para of the intro! The rest of the intro is really wild too, but very very good:
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
October 14, 2025 at 1:12 PM
This may just be the best CS paper I’ve read this year. Just read the abstract and first para of the intro! The rest of the intro is really wild too, but very very good:
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
This is a very nice demonstration of the power of GAMs.
Most Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) models assume customer behavior is linear.
But what if it isn't?
I built an #rstats GAM for SaaS revenue prediction that captures:
→ Nonlinear adoption curves
→ Tier-specific behaviors
→ Feature value with uncertainty
ecogambler.netlify.app/blog/clv-pre...
But what if it isn't?
I built an #rstats GAM for SaaS revenue prediction that captures:
→ Nonlinear adoption curves
→ Tier-specific behaviors
→ Feature value with uncertainty
ecogambler.netlify.app/blog/clv-pre...
GAMs for Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) prediction | GAMbler
Customer Lifetime Value models are critical for SaaS businesses, but standard regression approaches often predict impossible values like negative revenue or infinite growth. There are established meth...
ecogambler.netlify.app
October 15, 2025 at 5:56 AM
This is a very nice demonstration of the power of GAMs.
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Books Upstairs is a fine store with a particularly excellent poetry section. Why not support them by ordering your books online instead: booksupstairs.ie
‘Really shocking’: Independent Dublin bookstore damaged in arson attack
‘Really shocking’: Independent Dublin bookstore damaged in arson attack
Books Upstairs manager hopes to partially open the D’Olier Street store later on Monday
www.irishtimes.com
October 6, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Books Upstairs is a fine store with a particularly excellent poetry section. Why not support them by ordering your books online instead: booksupstairs.ie
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
It was fun (painful 😅) to implement VAR(p) models from scratch juanitorduz.github.io/var_numpyro/
Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models in NumPyro - Dr. Juan Camilo Orduz
juanitorduz.github.io
October 3, 2025 at 6:22 PM
It was fun (painful 😅) to implement VAR(p) models from scratch juanitorduz.github.io/var_numpyro/
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
The Aaron Swartz production function www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-aaron-...
The Aaron Swartz production function
Incalculable diffusion as a philosophy of doing
www.programmablemutter.com
September 22, 2025 at 11:58 AM
The Aaron Swartz production function www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-aaron-...
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Very glad to see that someone is doing the important work of aligning AI alignment. alignmentalignment.ai
Center for the Alignment of AI Alignment Centers
We align the aligners
alignmentalignment.ai
September 11, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Very glad to see that someone is doing the important work of aligning AI alignment. alignmentalignment.ai
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
"Open-mindedness is not incompatible with having opinions."
Not Every Idea Deserves Equal Time
A classic critique shows how creationists’ calls for “equal time” in classrooms blurred the line between legitimate scientific debate and intellectual imposture.
thereader.mitpress.mit.edu
September 16, 2025 at 9:40 PM
"Open-mindedness is not incompatible with having opinions."
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Boosting this live tweeting of the excellent Emily Adlai’s new book to #philsci #philsky #quantum – thanks @jeffreymepstein.bsky.social for this public service! :)
I just got a copy of this new book from Emily Adlam (with whom I did my masters, so this is the first book I'm reading written by a former classmate!). I'm going to try the thing where I tweet about it as I go.
global.oup.com
September 14, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Boosting this live tweeting of the excellent Emily Adlai’s new book to #philsci #philsky #quantum – thanks @jeffreymepstein.bsky.social for this public service! :)
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
I’m especially proud of this article I wrote about Gaussian Processes for the Recast blog! 🥳
GPs are super interesting, but it’s not easy to wrap your head around them at first 🤔
This is a medium level (more intuition than math) introduction to GPs for time series.
getrecast.com/gaussian-pro...
GPs are super interesting, but it’s not easy to wrap your head around them at first 🤔
This is a medium level (more intuition than math) introduction to GPs for time series.
getrecast.com/gaussian-pro...
August 29, 2025 at 5:11 PM
I’m especially proud of this article I wrote about Gaussian Processes for the Recast blog! 🥳
GPs are super interesting, but it’s not easy to wrap your head around them at first 🤔
This is a medium level (more intuition than math) introduction to GPs for time series.
getrecast.com/gaussian-pro...
GPs are super interesting, but it’s not easy to wrap your head around them at first 🤔
This is a medium level (more intuition than math) introduction to GPs for time series.
getrecast.com/gaussian-pro...
```On Monday, Pirro told a judge in a separate federal criminal case in D.C. that “an Indictment has not been returned” after “a __third__ grand jury returned a no true bill.”
The file drawer problem but for guilty verdicts
The file drawer problem but for guilty verdicts
August 27, 2025 at 4:10 PM
```On Monday, Pirro told a judge in a separate federal criminal case in D.C. that “an Indictment has not been returned” after “a __third__ grand jury returned a no true bill.”
The file drawer problem but for guilty verdicts
The file drawer problem but for guilty verdicts
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
Market share predictions fail when models ignore how markets really work.
At #PyDataBerlin, @nathanielforde.bsky.social shows how PyMC Marketing’s new Consumer Choice module uses Bayesian models for realistic substitution.
🗓️ Sept 1, 4:20 PM | 📍 Room B05-B06
#BayesianStats #PyMC
At #PyDataBerlin, @nathanielforde.bsky.social shows how PyMC Marketing’s new Consumer Choice module uses Bayesian models for realistic substitution.
🗓️ Sept 1, 4:20 PM | 📍 Room B05-B06
#BayesianStats #PyMC
August 25, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Market share predictions fail when models ignore how markets really work.
At #PyDataBerlin, @nathanielforde.bsky.social shows how PyMC Marketing’s new Consumer Choice module uses Bayesian models for realistic substitution.
🗓️ Sept 1, 4:20 PM | 📍 Room B05-B06
#BayesianStats #PyMC
At #PyDataBerlin, @nathanielforde.bsky.social shows how PyMC Marketing’s new Consumer Choice module uses Bayesian models for realistic substitution.
🗓️ Sept 1, 4:20 PM | 📍 Room B05-B06
#BayesianStats #PyMC
Reposted by Nathaniel Forde
#rstats #statistics
I've released my new open source book, "Powered by Linear Algebra: the role of matrices and vector space in data science," at matloff.github.io/WackyLinearA....
Turns the classic LA course on its head! Still proves the theorems, but with a deep emphasis on applications.
I've released my new open source book, "Powered by Linear Algebra: the role of matrices and vector space in data science," at matloff.github.io/WackyLinearA....
Turns the classic LA course on its head! Still proves the theorems, but with a deep emphasis on applications.
matloff.github.io
August 15, 2025 at 4:53 PM
#rstats #statistics
I've released my new open source book, "Powered by Linear Algebra: the role of matrices and vector space in data science," at matloff.github.io/WackyLinearA....
Turns the classic LA course on its head! Still proves the theorems, but with a deep emphasis on applications.
I've released my new open source book, "Powered by Linear Algebra: the role of matrices and vector space in data science," at matloff.github.io/WackyLinearA....
Turns the classic LA course on its head! Still proves the theorems, but with a deep emphasis on applications.
I'd be interested in reading an essay which traces a direct line from Krug's "Don't make me think" to Trump.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t...
Don't Make Me Think - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
August 11, 2025 at 1:41 PM
I'd be interested in reading an essay which traces a direct line from Krug's "Don't make me think" to Trump.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t...
New Blog Post: VAEs vs Bayesian Multivariate models – modelling the complexity of job satisfaction.
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
It’s not one score. It’s a bundle: how we feel ❤️, how we work 💼, how we think 🧠.
Here’s what happened when we tried to compress that complexity… 🧵
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
It’s not one score. It’s a bundle: how we feel ❤️, how we work 💼, how we think 🧠.
Here’s what happened when we tried to compress that complexity… 🧵
August 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
New Blog Post: VAEs vs Bayesian Multivariate models – modelling the complexity of job satisfaction.
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
It’s not one score. It’s a bundle: how we feel ❤️, how we work 💼, how we think 🧠.
Here’s what happened when we tried to compress that complexity… 🧵
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
It’s not one score. It’s a bundle: how we feel ❤️, how we work 💼, how we think 🧠.
Here’s what happened when we tried to compress that complexity… 🧵
Looking forward to @pyconde.bsky.social in Berlin this Year! Will be speaking about @pymc.io -marketing and consumer choice models. Hope to see you there!
berlin.pydata.org/conferences/...
berlin.pydata.org/conferences/...
July 5, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Looking forward to @pyconde.bsky.social in Berlin this Year! Will be speaking about @pymc.io -marketing and consumer choice models. Hope to see you there!
berlin.pydata.org/conferences/...
berlin.pydata.org/conferences/...
🚀 Just added support for multinomial logit & nested logit product choice models to pymc-marketing!
Use a formula API to model product choices & customer preferences — all in a Bayesian workflow 🧠📊
Docs:
🔗 l1nq.com/KRb64
🔗 encr.pw/oa49I
@pymc.io #discrete-choice #bayesian #stats #causal-inference
Use a formula API to model product choices & customer preferences — all in a Bayesian workflow 🧠📊
Docs:
🔗 l1nq.com/KRb64
🔗 encr.pw/oa49I
@pymc.io #discrete-choice #bayesian #stats #causal-inference
June 23, 2025 at 6:25 AM
🚀 Just added support for multinomial logit & nested logit product choice models to pymc-marketing!
Use a formula API to model product choices & customer preferences — all in a Bayesian workflow 🧠📊
Docs:
🔗 l1nq.com/KRb64
🔗 encr.pw/oa49I
@pymc.io #discrete-choice #bayesian #stats #causal-inference
Use a formula API to model product choices & customer preferences — all in a Bayesian workflow 🧠📊
Docs:
🔗 l1nq.com/KRb64
🔗 encr.pw/oa49I
@pymc.io #discrete-choice #bayesian #stats #causal-inference