Truth Warrior
@truthwarrior2.bsky.social
Fact-based, simple research on military, international relations, economic and power-politics topics. I try to identify patterns.
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1/2 In terms of Russia's use of ground equipment, moving forward, we can probably expect to see:
1. Tanks (if at all used): T-62 and T-72
2. IFVs: BMP-1/2, BMP-3
3. APCs: MT-LB
4. SPGs: 2S3 and 2S19
5. Towed arty: D-30, possibly D-20
1. Tanks (if at all used): T-62 and T-72
2. IFVs: BMP-1/2, BMP-3
3. APCs: MT-LB
4. SPGs: 2S3 and 2S19
5. Towed arty: D-30, possibly D-20
1/3 Just to be clear, I dissent from Jompy’s confident assertion (actually, conjecture) that the Russians are producing tanks from scratch. Yes, we have shared satellite imagery with each other, but disagree vehemently on the subject of full tank production (and other AFVs, for that matter).
January 24, 2026 at 10:01 PM
1/3 Just to be clear, I dissent from Jompy’s confident assertion (actually, conjecture) that the Russians are producing tanks from scratch. Yes, we have shared satellite imagery with each other, but disagree vehemently on the subject of full tank production (and other AFVs, for that matter).
Probably stating the obvious here, but at these rates of losses, you'd think it's the Battle of Kursk every day... 🤔🤨
January 20, 2026 at 5:49 AM
Probably stating the obvious here, but at these rates of losses, you'd think it's the Battle of Kursk every day... 🤔🤨
Russian turtle tank numbers registered on Warspotting as percentages of total registered losses, by month, over the past two years.
An obvious strong upward trend since turtle tanks began to appear in May 2024, and a further illustration of the deterioration of Russia's tank fleet.
An obvious strong upward trend since turtle tanks began to appear in May 2024, and a further illustration of the deterioration of Russia's tank fleet.
December 31, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Russian turtle tank numbers registered on Warspotting as percentages of total registered losses, by month, over the past two years.
An obvious strong upward trend since turtle tanks began to appear in May 2024, and a further illustration of the deterioration of Russia's tank fleet.
An obvious strong upward trend since turtle tanks began to appear in May 2024, and a further illustration of the deterioration of Russia's tank fleet.
Something we need to be mindful of re Russian tanks is that turtle tanks aren’t proper tanks - they are frankensteined remains used as battering rams and to soak up drones. I've not seen one fire ever.
I would think those that can move, but that aren’t worthy/capable of an overhaul, meet this fate.
I would think those that can move, but that aren’t worthy/capable of an overhaul, meet this fate.
December 28, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Something we need to be mindful of re Russian tanks is that turtle tanks aren’t proper tanks - they are frankensteined remains used as battering rams and to soak up drones. I've not seen one fire ever.
I would think those that can move, but that aren’t worthy/capable of an overhaul, meet this fate.
I would think those that can move, but that aren’t worthy/capable of an overhaul, meet this fate.
904th mid-res of 25 Nov 2025. I've counted ~50 tanks, that's about all I could realistically ID.
UVZ has 482 visible as of 4 Nov 2025 (per Covert/Jompy), most likely awaiting repairs/cannibalisation.
I do believe other BTRZs and storage bases have nothing viable left at this point.
UVZ has 482 visible as of 4 Nov 2025 (per Covert/Jompy), most likely awaiting repairs/cannibalisation.
I do believe other BTRZs and storage bases have nothing viable left at this point.
December 12, 2025 at 10:35 PM
904th mid-res of 25 Nov 2025. I've counted ~50 tanks, that's about all I could realistically ID.
UVZ has 482 visible as of 4 Nov 2025 (per Covert/Jompy), most likely awaiting repairs/cannibalisation.
I do believe other BTRZs and storage bases have nothing viable left at this point.
UVZ has 482 visible as of 4 Nov 2025 (per Covert/Jompy), most likely awaiting repairs/cannibalisation.
I do believe other BTRZs and storage bases have nothing viable left at this point.
Rubtsovskiy low-res of 30 Nov 2025. A considerable thinning out in the central section where the BMP-1/2s were kept for - presumably - repairs. Mid-res of 28 July 2025 for comparison.
Other than 904th, there really isn't much else in the way of worthwhile BMP-1/2s left anywhere, in my view.
Other than 904th, there really isn't much else in the way of worthwhile BMP-1/2s left anywhere, in my view.
December 12, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Rubtsovskiy low-res of 30 Nov 2025. A considerable thinning out in the central section where the BMP-1/2s were kept for - presumably - repairs. Mid-res of 28 July 2025 for comparison.
Other than 904th, there really isn't much else in the way of worthwhile BMP-1/2s left anywhere, in my view.
Other than 904th, there really isn't much else in the way of worthwhile BMP-1/2s left anywhere, in my view.
Russian demands will continue to be punitive on Ukraine as long as either (1) Russia retains an advantage in missiles and, more importantly, troops over Ukraine or (2) Russia isn't crippled economically/financially.
Neither of these circumstances is likely to change any time soon.
Neither of these circumstances is likely to change any time soon.
November 27, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Russian demands will continue to be punitive on Ukraine as long as either (1) Russia retains an advantage in missiles and, more importantly, troops over Ukraine or (2) Russia isn't crippled economically/financially.
Neither of these circumstances is likely to change any time soon.
Neither of these circumstances is likely to change any time soon.
904th - 1.5m pic of 27 Aug 2025 (left) and 20 Aug 2025 (right). There are around 50 of what I’m sure are tanks, but the section to the left there - might be tanks, or it might be something else.
Also, moral of the story is: don’t rely on low-res imagery.
Also, moral of the story is: don’t rely on low-res imagery.
August 30, 2025 at 3:18 AM
904th - 1.5m pic of 27 Aug 2025 (left) and 20 Aug 2025 (right). There are around 50 of what I’m sure are tanks, but the section to the left there - might be tanks, or it might be something else.
Also, moral of the story is: don’t rely on low-res imagery.
Also, moral of the story is: don’t rely on low-res imagery.
1/3 Alright, I'm now trying to keep an eye on UVZ - a BTRZ that's seemingly not been really looked at this war. 30cm pic of 12 Aug 2025.
August 29, 2025 at 10:40 AM
1/3 Alright, I'm now trying to keep an eye on UVZ - a BTRZ that's seemingly not been really looked at this war. 30cm pic of 12 Aug 2025.
1/2 Two points about India’s Russian oil imports.
First, this. You do the maths.
First, this. You do the maths.
August 27, 2025 at 11:56 PM
1/2 Two points about India’s Russian oil imports.
First, this. You do the maths.
First, this. You do the maths.
Sorry, people, 904th goes back to 'Likely decent' - Jompy has a higher-res pic of the 17th of August that we cannot share, but suffice it to say, it's good quality tanks, around 50 from what I saw.
August 18, 2025 at 7:24 AM
Sorry, people, 904th goes back to 'Likely decent' - Jompy has a higher-res pic of the 17th of August that we cannot share, but suffice it to say, it's good quality tanks, around 50 from what I saw.
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report 3.0
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
904th
Mainly junk and/or possibly empty by now:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
UVZ (visible hulls)
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
904th
Mainly junk and/or possibly empty by now:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
UVZ (visible hulls)
August 17, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report 3.0
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
904th
Mainly junk and/or possibly empty by now:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
UVZ (visible hulls)
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
904th
Mainly junk and/or possibly empty by now:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
UVZ (visible hulls)
904th low-res imagery of 12 Aug 2025 (with cloud & shadow) vs 8 July 2025 + medium-res of 6 July 2025 for comparison. I am not seeing any tanks here anymore, and the base itself is looking quite a bit thinner than before.
August 17, 2025 at 2:43 AM
904th low-res imagery of 12 Aug 2025 (with cloud & shadow) vs 8 July 2025 + medium-res of 6 July 2025 for comparison. I am not seeing any tanks here anymore, and the base itself is looking quite a bit thinner than before.
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report 2.0
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
August 16, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report 2.0
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Rubtsovskiy BTRZ 1.5m image of 28 Jul 2025. Looks like the BMPs are still there, little change vs GE of 23 May 2025.
August 16, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Rubtsovskiy BTRZ 1.5m image of 28 Jul 2025. Looks like the BMPs are still there, little change vs GE of 23 May 2025.
What did Russian tank storage bases say when offered to join the Special Military Operation?
No tanks.
😂
No tanks.
😂
August 16, 2025 at 10:16 AM
What did Russian tank storage bases say when offered to join the Special Military Operation?
No tanks.
😂
No tanks.
😂
769th 1.5m image of 16 July 2025. As of this date, there is seemingly one row of decent-ish looking T-62s left in the SW section. As I've previously speculated, by now (a month later) it's likely even they are gone. This one is a junker.
August 16, 2025 at 10:11 AM
769th 1.5m image of 16 July 2025. As of this date, there is seemingly one row of decent-ish looking T-62s left in the SW section. As I've previously speculated, by now (a month later) it's likely even they are gone. This one is a junker.
6018th 1.5m image of 4 Aug 2025. No tanks, likely junk BMPs, some trucks (as far as I can see). I'd say that this base is kaput.
August 16, 2025 at 9:40 AM
6018th 1.5m image of 4 Aug 2025. No tanks, likely junk BMPs, some trucks (as far as I can see). I'd say that this base is kaput.
On second thought, let's move 769th over to 'Mainly junk' for consistency.
August 15, 2025 at 5:18 AM
On second thought, let's move 769th over to 'Mainly junk' for consistency.
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report (my personal assessment):
Junk and/or empty:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Unknown:
6018th (likely empty)
Junk and/or empty:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Unknown:
6018th (likely empty)
August 15, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report (my personal assessment):
Junk and/or empty:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Unknown:
6018th (likely empty)
Junk and/or empty:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Unknown:
6018th (likely empty)
Omsktransmash 1.5m image of 10 July 2025. Not much change in the yards since May 2025. I consider the visible hulls at this BTRZ junk.
August 15, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Omsktransmash 1.5m image of 10 July 2025. Not much change in the yards since May 2025. I consider the visible hulls at this BTRZ junk.
103rd BTRZ 50cm image of 31 July 2025. Not much left here and no replenishment. Jompy has ID'd T-62s, BRDM-2s and BTR-70s here.
August 15, 2025 at 12:44 AM
103rd BTRZ 50cm image of 31 July 2025. Not much left here and no replenishment. Jompy has ID'd T-62s, BRDM-2s and BTR-70s here.
7049th 50cm image of 24 Jul 2025. Approx 15 2S3s and 21 2S19s. I note that this is an artillery range and probably a school/training facility.
August 15, 2025 at 12:41 AM
7049th 50cm image of 24 Jul 2025. Approx 15 2S3s and 21 2S19s. I note that this is an artillery range and probably a school/training facility.
1/2 I don’t normally like to comment on matters like negotiations (simply because nothing can really be verified and measured), but - assuming reports of Russia’s current proposal are true - I find it puzzling nobody is recognising that Russia’s ceasefire demands have come down a few notches.
August 11, 2025 at 12:39 AM
1/2 I don’t normally like to comment on matters like negotiations (simply because nothing can really be verified and measured), but - assuming reports of Russia’s current proposal are true - I find it puzzling nobody is recognising that Russia’s ceasefire demands have come down a few notches.
Regarding UVZ, at this point, it's hard to tell with certainty what is happening with these tanks. We will need to wait and see what movement happens in the future.
I do believe their quality is quite poor, though, so I don't think they're ready to be sent off.
I do believe their quality is quite poor, though, so I don't think they're ready to be sent off.
August 10, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Regarding UVZ, at this point, it's hard to tell with certainty what is happening with these tanks. We will need to wait and see what movement happens in the future.
I do believe their quality is quite poor, though, so I don't think they're ready to be sent off.
I do believe their quality is quite poor, though, so I don't think they're ready to be sent off.