Tong Zhao
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tongzhao.bsky.social
Tong Zhao
@tongzhao.bsky.social
550 followers 420 following 17 posts
Senior fellow @carnegieendow.bsky.social
Nuclear, arms control, nonproliferation, new mil tech, Asia-Pacific security, US-China.
Views my own.
https://carnegieendowment.org/people/tong-zhao?lang=en
Posts Replies Media Videos
tongzhao.bsky.social
China's next five-year plan promises to "strengthen and enlarge strategic deterrent capabilities," reaffirming China's commitment to continuing qualitative and quantitative growth of its nuclear arsenal.
www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
China’s next 5-year plan aims to narrow nuclear gap with US and Russia: analysts
Beijing’s proposed national blueprint links strategic forces with the global balance for the first time.
www.scmp.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
geraldcbrown.bsky.social
Curious about what China’s nuclear force is evolving into? Using Chinese primary sources, my latest publication from
@nbr.org maps out what China is building and the goals it intends to serve. 🧵 www.nbr.org/publication/...
October 27, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
uscnpm.bsky.social
Tyler Quillen talks with @tongzhao.bsky.social at @carnegieendowment.org about the consequences of America's illiberal turn for China and its neighbors

open.substack.com/pub/uscnpm/p...
Dialogue of the Deaf w/ Tong Zhao
As Beijing's position toward the U.S. hardens, the U.S.' position towards itself fractures further
open.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 2:49 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
Nuclear risks are rising as old safeguards fray. A new high-level bipartisan Task Force convened by @carnegieendowment.org, @nti.org, & @belfercenter.bsky.social lays out a blueprint to prevent an era of nuclear anarchy.
@carnegienpp.bsky.social
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Preventing an Era of Nuclear Anarchy: Nuclear Proliferation and American Security
Following decades of mostly successful efforts to combat the spread of nuclear weapons, multiple global trends are reviving the possibility of a world with more nuclear-armed states. These development...
carnegieendowment.org
September 23, 2025 at 6:42 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
China’s latest parade showcased unprecedented nuclear power. In this @carnegieendowment.org short video, I explain why the buildup isn’t serving China’s goals—and how Beijing can help strengthen a rules-based nuclear order.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaf3...
China’s Nuclear Arsenal Is Growing Faster Than Ever
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
www.youtube.com
September 10, 2025 at 12:03 AM
tongzhao.bsky.social
Beijing’s stunning display of nuclear power at its recent military parade is striking. In @economist.com, I explain why China should resist fueling arms races and instead champion a rules-based nuclear order.
www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
China should not fuel an arms race, says a close watcher of its nuclear policy
Its interests would be better served if it led on crafting nuclear rules, argues Tong Zhao
www.economist.com
September 4, 2025 at 1:31 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
Enjoyed discussing the politics behind China's nuclear policy shift with @nktpnd.bsky.social on @warontherocks.bsky.social' Thinking the Unthinkable podcast:
warontherocks.com/episode/thin...
The Politics Behind China’s Nuclear Shift - War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
August 27, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
johncarlbaker.bsky.social
Important piece from @tongzhao.bsky.social warning that China may be considering a launch-under-attack policy for its nuclear forces, mirroring the US and Russia foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/05/c...
Is China Changing Its Nuclear Launch Strategy?
Certain behaviors suggest it may be preparing to adopt one of the Cold War’s most dangerous policies.
foreignpolicy.com
August 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
Happy to share my @foreignpolicy.com analysis on China's potential adoption of launch-under-attack policy for its nuclear forces, including the security impact of this major policy shift and potential measures to mitigate risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/05/c...
Is China Changing Its Nuclear Launch Strategy?
Certain behaviors suggest it may be preparing to adopt one of the Cold War’s most dangerous policies.
foreignpolicy.com
August 5, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
atomicanalyst.bsky.social
See also this commemoration of the manifesto, recorded Tuesday at the Royal Society in London, and featuring remarks from Dr. Hussain Al-Shahristani, president of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, and a conversation with Steve Fetter, Andriy Baklitskiy and @tongzhao.bsky.social.
70 years of the Russell-Einstein manifesto | The Royal Society
YouTube video by The Royal Society
www.youtube.com
July 9, 2025 at 2:38 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
Thanks @apln.network for the opportunity to make a few comments on the implications of Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for nonproliferation and regional security in and beyond the Middle East, including in the Asia Pacific region. Link below.
June 25, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
carnegieendowment.org
Slashing nuclear nonproliferation funding, as the Trump administration has requested, would be, for the U.S., “a recipe for national security failure.”

@coreyah.bsky.social on why, in her latest for Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Cutting Nuclear Nonproliferation Funding Will Undermine U.S. National Security
It’ll also make deterrence even more challenging.
carnegieendowment.org
June 16, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
johncarlbaker.bsky.social
Nuclear expert @tongzhao.bsky.social says Russia and China see space-based interceptors "as indistinguishable from offensive weapons, arguing that a better-protected United States might be emboldened to pursue more aggressive military actions" www.wsj.com/world/trumps...
Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ Riles Nuclear-Armed Foes
The countries claim the missile-defense project is driving a dangerous new arms race.
www.wsj.com
May 28, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
carnegieendowment.org
Does President Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” risk igniting a new arms race? To Russia, China, and North Korea – the three greatest nuclear threats to the U.S. – it does.

📰 @tongzhao.bsky.social‬ weighed in for @wsj.com: www.wsj.com/world/trumps...
May 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
As China sees a new era of "strategic stalemate" with the US, what does it mean for bilateral security—arms racing, crisis stability, and conflict risk?
My analysis in @foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Will China Escalate?
Despite short-term stability, the risk of military crisis is rising.
www.foreignaffairs.com
May 2, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
eunpdc.bsky.social
🎙️Listen to the full #TheArmsPoseur podcast from IISS with Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @tongzhao.bsky.social & Dr @fionacunningham.bsky.social as they discuss the history and current trajectory of #China's nuclear arsenal. 🎧🔗 iiss.org/podcasts/arm...
March 18, 2025 at 8:49 AM
tongzhao.bsky.social
How does China envision the expansion of #BRICS? What's its strategy for enhancing engagement with Global South countries through BRICS to bolster its economic, security, & normative power?

My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org's new report on BRICS expansion:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants
The potential of BRICS members and partner countries to fulfill their individual aspirations via BRICS hinges on what vision of the future of world order ultimately wins out within BRICS.
carnegieendowment.org
April 2, 2025 at 6:17 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
Shift in logic:

Biden admin: Ukraine's fight defends a rules-based order—vital to US; Ukraine soldiers & lives lost are priceless contributions to a joint struggle.

Trump admin: Ukraine's fight is irrelevant to US interests & its sacrifice is a waste; Ukr owes US for one-sided aid & generosity.
March 1, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Reposted by Tong Zhao
carnegieendowment.org
10/ “Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security” by @tongzhao.bsky.social from the Nuclear Policy Program

https://buff.ly/4iMKXqd
Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security
The message from Chinese officials has become increasingly clear: the United States and China should first stabilize their political relationship before taking on nuclear issues.
carnegieendowment.org
December 27, 2024 at 10:55 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
Look forward to this @csis.org online discussion:

Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan

December 13, 2024, 1:30 – 2:30 pm EST
www.csis.org/events/confr...
Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan | CSIS Events
Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham will discuss a new CSIS report Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan with Kari ...
www.csis.org
December 10, 2024 at 10:35 PM
tongzhao.bsky.social
Honored to join distinguished experts discussing nuclear policy under a new Trump administration in the latest Arms Control Today @armscontrolnow.bsky.social

My contribution: "Dangerous Parallax: Chinese-U.S. Nuclear Risks in Trump's Second Term"

www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-12/...
Trump to Regain Control of U.S. Nuclear Policy. Now What? | Arms Control Association
www.armscontrol.org
December 9, 2024 at 5:49 PM