Tom Yates
@tomayates.bsky.social
Epidemiology, infection
https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/37299-tom-yates/about
https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/37299-tom-yates/about
Pinned
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Reposted by Tom Yates
Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction
Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction
Subsidies guaranteeing price for each unit of clean electricity generated given to 12 renewables projects
A make-or-break auction for the UK government’s goal to create a clean electricity system by 2030 has awarded subsidy contracts to enough offshore windfarms to power a record 12m homes.
In Great Britain’s most competitive auction for renewable subsidies to date, energy companies vied for contracts that guarantee the price for each unit of clean electricity they generate. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 14, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction
Reposted by Tom Yates
NEW LETTER
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
January 10, 2026 at 10:31 AM
NEW LETTER
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
NEW LETTER
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
January 10, 2026 at 10:31 AM
NEW LETTER
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
Reposted by Tom Yates
This was the funniest line to me: “If there is one thing to strongly object to about these guidelines, it’s that they are likely to be hard for many people to follow.” Oh really? That’s the one thing to strongly object to? It’s just too hard for people to eat enough steak, cheese and beef tallow?
January 8, 2026 at 2:06 PM
This was the funniest line to me: “If there is one thing to strongly object to about these guidelines, it’s that they are likely to be hard for many people to follow.” Oh really? That’s the one thing to strongly object to? It’s just too hard for people to eat enough steak, cheese and beef tallow?
That and the complete scientific illiteracy of rejecting the idea that saturated fat is bad for you
The industry connections of an advisory panel for the new dietary guidelines are notable, especially in light of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s criticism of corporate influence.
www.statnews.com/2026/01/07/n...
www.statnews.com/2026/01/07/n...
Panel behind new dietary guidelines had financial ties to beef, dairy industries
The industry connections of an advisory panel for the new dietary guidelines are notable, especially in light of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s criticism of corporate influence.
www.statnews.com
January 8, 2026 at 1:43 PM
That and the complete scientific illiteracy of rejecting the idea that saturated fat is bad for you
Reposted by Tom Yates
I know a bit about the past of MR, something about the present, and look forward to discussing whether MR has a future, and if so, how that should look
If you are interested in the past, present, and future of Mendelian Randomisation, join us later this month for a Causal Inference Interest Group seminar on MR with none other than @mendelrandom.bsky.social
Zoom registration link: ucl.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Zoom registration link: ucl.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
January 5, 2026 at 11:10 PM
I know a bit about the past of MR, something about the present, and look forward to discussing whether MR has a future, and if so, how that should look
Reposted by Tom Yates
Trial statisticians!
Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?
No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.
Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?
No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.
January 8, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Trial statisticians!
Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?
No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.
Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?
No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.
Not sure I understand @mainstreamlabour.bsky.social's approach to decision making
How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?
Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?
How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?
Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?
January 6, 2026 at 7:38 PM
Not sure I understand @mainstreamlabour.bsky.social's approach to decision making
How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?
Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?
How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?
Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?
The UK should be clear that there will be material consequences - not just words - if Netanyahu persists in actions like these which set back hopes of a fair negotiated peace settlement
There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
Israel pushes ahead with vast illegal settlement in heart of West Bank
Israel pushes ahead with vast illegal settlement in heart of West Bank
Tender posted for construction of 3,401 homes in settlement designed to ‘bury idea of a Palestinian state’
Israel is moving to start construction on a vast illegal settlement in the heart of the West Bank, designed to “bury the idea of a Palestinian state”.
The Israel Land Authority in mid-December quietly posted a tender for construction of 3,401 homes in the “E1” project, which will effectively sever the north and south of the occupied West Bank for Palestinians, and further cut off East Jerusalem. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 6, 2026 at 6:19 PM
The UK should be clear that there will be material consequences - not just words - if Netanyahu persists in actions like these which set back hopes of a fair negotiated peace settlement
There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
Reposted by Tom Yates
Trump’s coup in Venezuela didn’t just break the rules – it showed there aren’t any. We’ll all regret that | Nesrine Malik
Trump’s coup in Venezuela didn’t just break the rules – it showed there aren’t any. We’ll all regret that | Nesrine Malik
It’s not just the triumphalism in the White House. Leaders loth to oppose this gangsterism must think how that looks to Putin, Xi and in the UAE, says Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik
www.theguardian.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:43 AM
Trump’s coup in Venezuela didn’t just break the rules – it showed there aren’t any. We’ll all regret that | Nesrine Malik
Reposted by Tom Yates
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
December 9, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
Reposted by Tom Yates
On the pod: Colin Yeo, a barrister and author of ‘Welcome to Britain: Fixing Our Broken Immigration System’, and Nicola Kelly, author of ‘Anywhere But Here: How Britain’s Broken Asylum System Fails Us All’, join James Butler to explore the politics of migration.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
On Politics: Inside Britain’s Asylum System
Podcast Episode · The LRB Podcast · 10/12/2025 · 1h 3m
podcasts.apple.com
December 10, 2025 at 9:39 AM
On the pod: Colin Yeo, a barrister and author of ‘Welcome to Britain: Fixing Our Broken Immigration System’, and Nicola Kelly, author of ‘Anywhere But Here: How Britain’s Broken Asylum System Fails Us All’, join James Butler to explore the politics of migration.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
Reposted by Tom Yates
Symposium & workshop on inequalities in infectious disease dynamics at LSHTM in April 2026. We aim to will bring together leading researchers and practitioners to share ideas, discuss recent advances, and reflect on future directions. Details & application: iddconf.org/lshtm-sympos... Closing 21 Jan
Social Inequalities in Infectious Disease Dynamics: a Symposium and Workshop
iddconf.org
December 16, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Symposium & workshop on inequalities in infectious disease dynamics at LSHTM in April 2026. We aim to will bring together leading researchers and practitioners to share ideas, discuss recent advances, and reflect on future directions. Details & application: iddconf.org/lshtm-sympos... Closing 21 Jan
Reposted by Tom Yates
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
December 20, 2025 at 1:51 PM
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Reposted by Tom Yates
👇Great thread on TB strain concordance/strain discordance among household contacts. If I read correctly, findings from a 1998 small series from San Francisco consistent with the much greater analysis. ++ Implications for transmission and management of contacts.
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
December 20, 2025 at 2:32 PM
👇Great thread on TB strain concordance/strain discordance among household contacts. If I read correctly, findings from a 1998 small series from San Francisco consistent with the much greater analysis. ++ Implications for transmission and management of contacts.
Reposted by Tom Yates
Cool work! Was just thinking that someone needs to do this analysis as we need better quantitative estimates. Reaffirms concern that studies using cross-sectional HH IGRA to investigate determinants of infectiousness (e.g. symptoms) are going to have major limitations.
Exploring transmission dynamics in epidemiologically linked pulmonary tuberculosis cases and household contacts: a WGS-based investigation - BMC Genomics
Background The genotyping of the M. tuberculosis complex has significantly enhanced the comprehension of transmission dynamics and is employed to substantiate transmission dynamics among epidemiologic...
link.springer.com
December 22, 2025 at 3:23 AM
Cool work! Was just thinking that someone needs to do this analysis as we need better quantitative estimates. Reaffirms concern that studies using cross-sectional HH IGRA to investigate determinants of infectiousness (e.g. symptoms) are going to have major limitations.
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
December 20, 2025 at 1:51 PM
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Reposted by Tom Yates
🎉 Big news!
The MRC Centre for Clinical Research Efficiency (CoRE) is here.
By accelerating the testing of new medicines, the MRC CoRE will help bring better treatments to patients sooner.
🔗 Learn more: www.mrcctu.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-st...
The MRC Centre for Clinical Research Efficiency (CoRE) is here.
By accelerating the testing of new medicines, the MRC CoRE will help bring better treatments to patients sooner.
🔗 Learn more: www.mrcctu.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-st...
Groundbreaking £50m MRC Centre will overhaul clinical trials for patients | MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL
www.mrcctu.ucl.ac.uk
December 18, 2025 at 4:09 PM
🎉 Big news!
The MRC Centre for Clinical Research Efficiency (CoRE) is here.
By accelerating the testing of new medicines, the MRC CoRE will help bring better treatments to patients sooner.
🔗 Learn more: www.mrcctu.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-st...
The MRC Centre for Clinical Research Efficiency (CoRE) is here.
By accelerating the testing of new medicines, the MRC CoRE will help bring better treatments to patients sooner.
🔗 Learn more: www.mrcctu.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-st...
I can't strike but, for those dunking on my colleagues who are striking tomorrow, here is a super useful figure from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk
This uses CPI rather than RPI, i.e. the more conservative of the measures by which real terms pay has been cut for NHS workers
This uses CPI rather than RPI, i.e. the more conservative of the measures by which real terms pay has been cut for NHS workers
December 16, 2025 at 10:53 PM
I can't strike but, for those dunking on my colleagues who are striking tomorrow, here is a super useful figure from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk
This uses CPI rather than RPI, i.e. the more conservative of the measures by which real terms pay has been cut for NHS workers
This uses CPI rather than RPI, i.e. the more conservative of the measures by which real terms pay has been cut for NHS workers
This is a really lovely paper by @dopapus.bsky.social and team
Self report of TB symptoms depends on lots of external factors and there are more robust markers of disease extent / severity available to inform surveillance and clinical management
#TBSky #EpiSky
Self report of TB symptoms depends on lots of external factors and there are more robust markers of disease extent / severity available to inform surveillance and clinical management
#TBSky #EpiSky
Reported Tuberculosis Symptoms: An Inadequate Classifier of Disease State
We provide evidence that self-reported symptoms are an inadequate classifier of disease state, heavily influenced by context and substantial interviewer va
academic.oup.com
December 11, 2025 at 9:54 AM
This is a really lovely paper by @dopapus.bsky.social and team
Self report of TB symptoms depends on lots of external factors and there are more robust markers of disease extent / severity available to inform surveillance and clinical management
#TBSky #EpiSky
Self report of TB symptoms depends on lots of external factors and there are more robust markers of disease extent / severity available to inform surveillance and clinical management
#TBSky #EpiSky
Epidemiology friends, is there good primary research on any of this? Potentially challenging, as most of us buy food wrapped in plastic. My starting point - I don't give a toss about "naturalness", don't think "synthetic chemicals" is a coherent category, and like my exposures/outcomes well defined!
Synthetic chemicals in food system creating health burden of $2.2tn a year, report finds
Synthetic chemicals in food system creating health burden of $2.2tn a year, report finds
Scientists issue urgent warning about chemicals, found to cause cancer and infertility as well as harming environment
Scientists have issued an urgent warning that some of the synthetic chemicals that help underpin the current food system are driving increased rates of cancer, neurodevelopmental conditions and infertility, while degrading the foundations of global agriculture.
The health burden from phthalates, bisphenols, pesticides and Pfas “forever chemicals” amounts to up to $2.2tn a year – roughly as much as the profits of the world’s 100 largest publicly listed companies, according to the report published on Wednesday. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
December 10, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Epidemiology friends, is there good primary research on any of this? Potentially challenging, as most of us buy food wrapped in plastic. My starting point - I don't give a toss about "naturalness", don't think "synthetic chemicals" is a coherent category, and like my exposures/outcomes well defined!
Reposted by Tom Yates
We can’t accept this attempt to hide the destruction that two years of a genocidal war has brought on Gaza. Palestinians must be allowed to recover, and foreign journalists must be able to report freely. (2/2)
December 9, 2025 at 7:27 PM
We can’t accept this attempt to hide the destruction that two years of a genocidal war has brought on Gaza. Palestinians must be allowed to recover, and foreign journalists must be able to report freely. (2/2)
Reposted by Tom Yates
The ban on foreign journalists entering Gaza was just extended today — almost two months into the ceasefire. International reporters still aren’t allowed to talk to Palestinians on the ground and report on what’s happening. (1/2)
High Court lets government delay response on bid to allow foreign journalists into Gaza, for the 9th time
* * *
www.timesofisrael.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:27 PM
The ban on foreign journalists entering Gaza was just extended today — almost two months into the ceasefire. International reporters still aren’t allowed to talk to Palestinians on the ground and report on what’s happening. (1/2)
Reposted by Tom Yates
“I’ll never forget the look of hatred he had for me, simply for existing.... Nigel Farage has suggested it’s inconceivable that anyone could recall such events of more than four decades ago. I would simply ask: can a victim of such abuse ever forget?” Yinka Bankole
I’ll never forget the look of hatred Nigel Farage had for me at school, simply for existing
The Reform UK leader doubts people can recall their abuse from years ago. I’ve never forgotten his – it felt malicious
www.theguardian.com
December 5, 2025 at 6:36 PM
“I’ll never forget the look of hatred he had for me, simply for existing.... Nigel Farage has suggested it’s inconceivable that anyone could recall such events of more than four decades ago. I would simply ask: can a victim of such abuse ever forget?” Yinka Bankole