Thomas Loridan
@tloridan.bsky.social
Tropical Cyclone and #hurricane Risk, Extreme Weather, #MachineLearning, Boundary Layer Meteorology, Reask Co-founder
Multi tasking and excelling at both tasks!
January 30, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Multi tasking and excelling at both tasks!
Reposted by Thomas Loridan
My next livestream will be 7pm PT this evening. My continuing focus will be the SoCal #wildfire disasters, as well as the new "extremely critical risk" event tonight into tomorrow plus the long-term outlook. #CAwx #CAfire #PalisadesFire #EatonFIre youtube.com/live/QeI...
Weather and climate office hours: 01/13/2025 topic: Coverage of SoCal wildfires & new wind event - YouTube
The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain on various topics related to extreme weather and c...
youtube.com
January 13, 2025 at 7:42 PM
My next livestream will be 7pm PT this evening. My continuing focus will be the SoCal #wildfire disasters, as well as the new "extremely critical risk" event tonight into tomorrow plus the long-term outlook. #CAwx #CAfire #PalisadesFire #EatonFIre youtube.com/live/QeI...
@nicobruneau.bsky.social and I have been scratching our heads with #hurricane Andrew for a while now, and whichever way we look at it, it always seems like a very unlucky occurence. Curious to hear what the industry thinks about likely return period ?
December 14, 2024 at 8:50 PM
@nicobruneau.bsky.social and I have been scratching our heads with #hurricane Andrew for a while now, and whichever way we look at it, it always seems like a very unlucky occurence. Curious to hear what the industry thinks about likely return period ?
Reposted by Thomas Loridan
It's always fascinating to see how sparse our historical records of Major #Hurricane US landfalls are !
This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
December 11, 2024 at 2:09 PM
It's always fascinating to see how sparse our historical records of Major #Hurricane US landfalls are !
This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
Conditioning #hurricane parameter distributions to climate state is super important… otherwise we get stuck with backward looking static views of risk
It’s common to assume a Poisson distribution when sampling #tropicalcyclone frequency. However with a long-term average freq view, there is almost no chance to generate Atlantic #hurricane seasons like 2005 or 2020. At Reask, we prefer to condition the Poisson rate based on the state of the climate.
December 6, 2024 at 10:35 AM
Conditioning #hurricane parameter distributions to climate state is super important… otherwise we get stuck with backward looking static views of risk
Excited to see Nico posting his analysis on here, he consistently produces awesome #hurricane risk graphics:
Couple of exhibits from our seasonal forecast view of NA TC risk (what we released back in May 2024) with observations superimposed.
- Hurricane level % differences to long-term
- Same but zoomed on the Gulf of Mexico with the NHC 5-day cones about 36h before each landfall - quite some overlaps...
- Hurricane level % differences to long-term
- Same but zoomed on the Gulf of Mexico with the NHC 5-day cones about 36h before each landfall - quite some overlaps...
December 3, 2024 at 7:03 PM
Excited to see Nico posting his analysis on here, he consistently produces awesome #hurricane risk graphics:
Hurricane seasonal risk projection – before and after:
Back in May, our team used Reask #TropicalCyclone model (see links in comments) to highlight projected regions of increased seasonal #hurricanerisk .
6 months later, we can overlay observed activity on top of the our pre-season "heat maps":
Back in May, our team used Reask #TropicalCyclone model (see links in comments) to highlight projected regions of increased seasonal #hurricanerisk .
6 months later, we can overlay observed activity on top of the our pre-season "heat maps":
November 25, 2024 at 11:59 AM
Hurricane seasonal risk projection – before and after:
Back in May, our team used Reask #TropicalCyclone model (see links in comments) to highlight projected regions of increased seasonal #hurricanerisk .
6 months later, we can overlay observed activity on top of the our pre-season "heat maps":
Back in May, our team used Reask #TropicalCyclone model (see links in comments) to highlight projected regions of increased seasonal #hurricanerisk .
6 months later, we can overlay observed activity on top of the our pre-season "heat maps":
Superb work coming out of the Reask drought team - well done @marieshaylor.bsky.social
I've co-written my first ever blog - Check it out! Some of our thoughts on Drought, Data & the Housing Market 🏚️
reask.earth/2024/11/20/u...
reask.earth/2024/11/20/u...
Unveiling the Cracks in the Housing Market - Reask
Marie Shaylor, Climate Catastrophe Developer, Reask Mathis Joffrain, Natural Hazards Impacts Modeller, AXA With climate change trends continuing to show increasing temperatures worldwide and with ever...
reask.earth
November 25, 2024 at 9:50 AM
Superb work coming out of the Reask drought team - well done @marieshaylor.bsky.social