Nico
@nicobruneau.bsky.social
Extreme Weather, Tropical Cyclone, Storm Surge & Waves, General Oceanography, Climate Change
#hurricane, #MachineLearning, #NaturalDisaster, #SeaLevelRise,
#StormSurge, #waves
#hurricane, #MachineLearning, #NaturalDisaster, #SeaLevelRise,
#StormSurge, #waves
It's always fascinating to see how sparse our historical records of Major #Hurricane US landfalls are !
This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
December 11, 2024 at 2:09 PM
It's always fascinating to see how sparse our historical records of Major #Hurricane US landfalls are !
This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
It’s common to assume a Poisson distribution when sampling #tropicalcyclone frequency. However with a long-term average freq view, there is almost no chance to generate Atlantic #hurricane seasons like 2005 or 2020. At Reask, we prefer to condition the Poisson rate based on the state of the climate.
December 6, 2024 at 9:25 AM
It’s common to assume a Poisson distribution when sampling #tropicalcyclone frequency. However with a long-term average freq view, there is almost no chance to generate Atlantic #hurricane seasons like 2005 or 2020. At Reask, we prefer to condition the Poisson rate based on the state of the climate.
Couple of exhibits from our seasonal forecast view of NA TC risk (what we released back in May 2024) with observations superimposed.
- Hurricane level % differences to long-term
- Same but zoomed on the Gulf of Mexico with the NHC 5-day cones about 36h before each landfall - quite some overlaps...
- Hurricane level % differences to long-term
- Same but zoomed on the Gulf of Mexico with the NHC 5-day cones about 36h before each landfall - quite some overlaps...
December 3, 2024 at 6:08 PM
Couple of exhibits from our seasonal forecast view of NA TC risk (what we released back in May 2024) with observations superimposed.
- Hurricane level % differences to long-term
- Same but zoomed on the Gulf of Mexico with the NHC 5-day cones about 36h before each landfall - quite some overlaps...
- Hurricane level % differences to long-term
- Same but zoomed on the Gulf of Mexico with the NHC 5-day cones about 36h before each landfall - quite some overlaps...