Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
Professor, GSPIA, University of Ottawa. Middle East (Iran, Yemen), intelligence and national security. Former Defence analyst.
I agree - the envoy on combatting antisemitism position has been vacant for 6 months now, and a new person should be reappointed urgently
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
The position has been vacant since former envoy Deborah Lyons resigned in July
www.theglobeandmail.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:19 PM
I agree - the envoy on combatting antisemitism position has been vacant for 6 months now, and a new person should be reappointed urgently
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have pursued divergent goals in Yemen since 2015. Opposition to the Houthis allowed them to maintain a facade of unity & agree to disagree on the rest, but this was unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. For more on UAE goals:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The UAE and the War in Yemen: From Surge to Recalibration
In 2019 the United Arab Emirates undertook to recalibrate its intervention in the Yemen conflict, without ending it altogether.
www.tandfonline.com
December 30, 2025 at 1:50 PM
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have pursued divergent goals in Yemen since 2015. Opposition to the Houthis allowed them to maintain a facade of unity & agree to disagree on the rest, but this was unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. For more on UAE goals:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
There has been a consistent pattern in Yemen for decades, of regional and great powers viewing the country as a theatre to pursue broader ambitions. This has been the case for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, now confronting each other, and also for the US and Iran (and others).
December 30, 2025 at 1:43 PM
There has been a consistent pattern in Yemen for decades, of regional and great powers viewing the country as a theatre to pursue broader ambitions. This has been the case for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, now confronting each other, and also for the US and Iran (and others).
Reposted by Thomas Juneau
One of our most-read articles of 2025: @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyzes Iran’s annus horribilis and lays out the potential for the Islamic Republic “to claw back its losses” amid the “new normal in the regional balance of power.” Open access:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Iran's Annus Horribilis in 2024: Beaten, but Not Defeated
Iran and the Axis of Resistance—the armed nonstate actors that it supports, plus the Assad regime in Syria—had a horrible 2024. Hamas and Hezbollah suffered heavy blows at the hands of Israel. Bashar...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 25, 2025 at 2:58 PM
One of our most-read articles of 2025: @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyzes Iran’s annus horribilis and lays out the potential for the Islamic Republic “to claw back its losses” amid the “new normal in the regional balance of power.” Open access:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
First time skiing this year. Not bad conditions at all for a December 23rd.
cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social
cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social
December 23, 2025 at 9:39 PM
First time skiing this year. Not bad conditions at all for a December 23rd.
cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social
cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social
Book of the week - Iran, by Ali Ansari. A very well written, clear, and concise history of contemporary Iran. In under 200 pages, a comprehensive overview of the constitutional revolution, the Qajar and Pahlavi eras, & the Islamic Republic. A great reference book.
December 22, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Book of the week - Iran, by Ali Ansari. A very well written, clear, and concise history of contemporary Iran. In under 200 pages, a comprehensive overview of the constitutional revolution, the Qajar and Pahlavi eras, & the Islamic Republic. A great reference book.
Hostile spy agencies are now as focused on infiltrating western universities and companies as they are on doing so to governments, according to the former head of Canada’s intelligence service.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
Hostile powers sending spies to west’s universities, says former security chief
Canadian expert David Vigneault warns of China’s ‘industrial-strength’ attempts to steal new technologies
www.theguardian.com
December 21, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Hostile spy agencies are now as focused on infiltrating western universities and companies as they are on doing so to governments, according to the former head of Canada’s intelligence service.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
Reposted by Thomas Juneau
Best of ’25, cont.: the new (dis)order, from Iran-Israel to a WMD-free zone, new approach to collapsed states, Saudi hedging, regional corporate elite. With
@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@hannesbaumann.bsky.social
@drrmason.bsky.social
& many more
mepc.org/commentaries...
@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@hannesbaumann.bsky.social
@drrmason.bsky.social
& many more
mepc.org/commentaries...
Best Articles of 2025: New Regional (Dis)order - Middle East Policy Council
President Donald Trump has signed a law ending all American sanctions on Syria, one month after the Islamist former rebels who now run the government joined the fight against the Islamic State. Throug...
mepc.org
December 19, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Best of ’25, cont.: the new (dis)order, from Iran-Israel to a WMD-free zone, new approach to collapsed states, Saudi hedging, regional corporate elite. With
@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@hannesbaumann.bsky.social
@drrmason.bsky.social
& many more
mepc.org/commentaries...
@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
@banafshkeynoush.bsky.social
@hannesbaumann.bsky.social
@drrmason.bsky.social
& many more
mepc.org/commentaries...
Nice shoutout from one of my favorite analysts of Canadian foreign and defence policy, @achapnick.bsky.social:
cc @jessmarindavis.bsky.social, @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social & @leahwest-nsl.bsky.social
buttondown.com/achapnick/ar...
cc @jessmarindavis.bsky.social, @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social & @leahwest-nsl.bsky.social
buttondown.com/achapnick/ar...
December 15, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Nice shoutout from one of my favorite analysts of Canadian foreign and defence policy, @achapnick.bsky.social:
cc @jessmarindavis.bsky.social, @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social & @leahwest-nsl.bsky.social
buttondown.com/achapnick/ar...
cc @jessmarindavis.bsky.social, @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social & @leahwest-nsl.bsky.social
buttondown.com/achapnick/ar...
My interview with DW:
-much is still unclear in South Yemen, where separatist forces have expanded eastwards
-sustaining these gains will be difficult
-the Houthis stand to gain, at least for now, from the internationally recognized government's weakening
www.dw.com/en/in-yemen-...
-much is still unclear in South Yemen, where separatist forces have expanded eastwards
-sustaining these gains will be difficult
-the Houthis stand to gain, at least for now, from the internationally recognized government's weakening
www.dw.com/en/in-yemen-...
In Yemen, southern power push challenges Houthi stalemate – DW – 12/13/2025
The Southern Transitional Council has seized control of more territory, reinforcing calls for a split of war-torn Yemen. However, global recognition for two independent states is unlikely due to forei...
www.dw.com
December 13, 2025 at 3:52 PM
My interview with DW:
-much is still unclear in South Yemen, where separatist forces have expanded eastwards
-sustaining these gains will be difficult
-the Houthis stand to gain, at least for now, from the internationally recognized government's weakening
www.dw.com/en/in-yemen-...
-much is still unclear in South Yemen, where separatist forces have expanded eastwards
-sustaining these gains will be difficult
-the Houthis stand to gain, at least for now, from the internationally recognized government's weakening
www.dw.com/en/in-yemen-...
«Au minimum, les Emirats n’ont pas dit non à leurs protégés, sans quoi jamais ils ne se seraient lancés dans une telle conquête», estime Thomas Juneau, de l’université d’Ottawa (Canada), chercheur associé au Centre de Sanaa pour les études stratégiques.
www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
Au Yémen, le fragile équilibre du gouvernement mis à mal par la poussée des séparatistes sudistes
La coalition de groupes politiques et de milices réunis au sein du Conseil de transition du Sud (STC) a pris le contrôle de tout le territoire de l’ancien Yémen du Sud, avec l’assentiment des Emirats ...
www.lemonde.fr
December 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM
«Au minimum, les Emirats n’ont pas dit non à leurs protégés, sans quoi jamais ils ne se seraient lancés dans une telle conquête», estime Thomas Juneau, de l’université d’Ottawa (Canada), chercheur associé au Centre de Sanaa pour les études stratégiques.
www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
Morocco 1 - Saudi Arabia 0, at the FIFA Arab Cup 2025 in Qatar (on the Katara beach corniche)
December 8, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Morocco 1 - Saudi Arabia 0, at the FIFA Arab Cup 2025 in Qatar (on the Katara beach corniche)
Last dinner in Doha, at an Armenian Lebanese restaurant: eggplant fatet and Yerevan kebab
December 8, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Last dinner in Doha, at an Armenian Lebanese restaurant: eggplant fatet and Yerevan kebab
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, celebrating at a Syrian restaurant in Doha:
December 7, 2025 at 6:56 PM
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, celebrating at a Syrian restaurant in Doha:
Great panel at the Doha Forum on US-Saudi relations with @AzizAlghashian, Victoria Coates & David Schenker, chaired by @jpanikoff:
-US-Saudi relations are on more solid footing
-Saudi efforts to diversify their relations, still under a US umbrella, are well understood in the US
-US-Saudi relations are on more solid footing
-Saudi efforts to diversify their relations, still under a US umbrella, are well understood in the US
December 6, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Great panel at the Doha Forum on US-Saudi relations with @AzizAlghashian, Victoria Coates & David Schenker, chaired by @jpanikoff:
-US-Saudi relations are on more solid footing
-Saudi efforts to diversify their relations, still under a US umbrella, are well understood in the US
-US-Saudi relations are on more solid footing
-Saudi efforts to diversify their relations, still under a US umbrella, are well understood in the US
Now at the Doha Forum: Syria's new president, Ahmed Al Shara'a
December 6, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Now at the Doha Forum: Syria's new president, Ahmed Al Shara'a
Why is this good news? Canada has an interest in contributing to Syria's reconstruction, working with its allies and partners. The challenges are massive, but these sanctions acted as major obstacles.
This is good news: Canada removes Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism and removes HTS from its List of Terrorist Entities.
www.canada.ca/en/global-af...
www.canada.ca/en/global-af...
Canada announces measures related to Syria
The Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Gary Anandasangaree, Minister of Public Safety, today announced measures taken by the Government of Canada in relation to Sy...
www.canada.ca
December 6, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Why is this good news? Canada has an interest in contributing to Syria's reconstruction, working with its allies and partners. The challenges are massive, but these sanctions acted as major obstacles.
Great panel on Yemen at the Doha Forum, with Hans Grundberg (UN Envoy), Dr. Shaya Mohsin Zindani (Yemen foreign minister), amd Dr Abdulaziz Saqer (GRC), chaired by Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen from the Sanaa Center.
December 6, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Great panel on Yemen at the Doha Forum, with Hans Grundberg (UN Envoy), Dr. Shaya Mohsin Zindani (Yemen foreign minister), amd Dr Abdulaziz Saqer (GRC), chaired by Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen from the Sanaa Center.
This is good news: Canada removes Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism and removes HTS from its List of Terrorist Entities.
www.canada.ca/en/global-af...
www.canada.ca/en/global-af...
Canada announces measures related to Syria
The Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Gary Anandasangaree, Minister of Public Safety, today announced measures taken by the Government of Canada in relation to Sy...
www.canada.ca
December 5, 2025 at 10:27 PM
This is good news: Canada removes Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism and removes HTS from its List of Terrorist Entities.
www.canada.ca/en/global-af...
www.canada.ca/en/global-af...
UAE-backed separatist forces significantly expanded their control in south Yemen this week. For background on UAE policy in Yemen (objectives, who it supports, consequences) see my Survival article:
The UAE & the War in Yemen: From Surge to Recalibration
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The UAE & the War in Yemen: From Surge to Recalibration
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The UAE and the War in Yemen: From Surge to Recalibration
In 2019 the United Arab Emirates undertook to recalibrate its intervention in the Yemen conflict, without ending it altogether.
www.tandfonline.com
December 5, 2025 at 4:59 PM
UAE-backed separatist forces significantly expanded their control in south Yemen this week. For background on UAE policy in Yemen (objectives, who it supports, consequences) see my Survival article:
The UAE & the War in Yemen: From Surge to Recalibration
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The UAE & the War in Yemen: From Surge to Recalibration
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Nice to be back in Qatar, for the Doha Forum
December 4, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Nice to be back in Qatar, for the Doha Forum
Book of the week - Iran's Grand Strategy: A political history, by @valinasr.bsky.social. Great overview of the history and politics of Iran's grand strategy, with very useful emphasis on elements of continuity and change over time. One of the best books on Iran I've read.
December 1, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Book of the week - Iran's Grand Strategy: A political history, by @valinasr.bsky.social. Great overview of the history and politics of Iran's grand strategy, with very useful emphasis on elements of continuity and change over time. One of the best books on Iran I've read.
"To survive and thrive in a world of American retrenchment, unilateralism and protectionism, Ottawa should prioritize deeper ties with other democracies, since common values often imply similar interests. But Canada also shares important interests... with non-democracies."
My new op-ed in The Globe and Mail today: Canada badly needs to diversify its trade and security partnerships - and this should include deeper ties with the UAE and other Gulf states.
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
Opinion: Canada will need to consider growing its relations with non-democratic Gulf States
We do not have the luxury of ignoring hard foreign policy decisions
www.theglobeandmail.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:31 PM
"To survive and thrive in a world of American retrenchment, unilateralism and protectionism, Ottawa should prioritize deeper ties with other democracies, since common values often imply similar interests. But Canada also shares important interests... with non-democracies."
"The loud but empty moralizing of the past will not only fail to allow Canada to promote its interests in the Gulf, it will also be counterproductive... there is simply no space for Canada to pressure them with any success on human rights."
My new op-ed in The Globe and Mail today: Canada badly needs to diversify its trade and security partnerships - and this should include deeper ties with the UAE and other Gulf states.
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
Opinion: Canada will need to consider growing its relations with non-democratic Gulf States
We do not have the luxury of ignoring hard foreign policy decisions
www.theglobeandmail.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:52 PM
"The loud but empty moralizing of the past will not only fail to allow Canada to promote its interests in the Gulf, it will also be counterproductive... there is simply no space for Canada to pressure them with any success on human rights."