Thomas Juneau
@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
Professor, GSPIA, University of Ottawa. Middle East (Iran, Yemen), intelligence and national security. Former Defence analyst.
My new article for the @SanaaCenter: what do events of the past weeks in southern Yemen mean for Iran's role and influence in the country? how will these events affect the internal balance of power with the Houthis, and how does Iran perceive this?
sanaacenter.org/publications...
sanaacenter.org/publications...
Turmoil in Southern Yemen: The Implications for the Houthis and Iran - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
In early December, armed groups aligned with the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) and supported by the UAE seized vast swathes of southern and eastern Yemen. After a short period durin...
sanaacenter.org
January 19, 2026 at 2:44 PM
My new article for the @SanaaCenter: what do events of the past weeks in southern Yemen mean for Iran's role and influence in the country? how will these events affect the internal balance of power with the Houthis, and how does Iran perceive this?
sanaacenter.org/publications...
sanaacenter.org/publications...
Canada badly needs to diversify its trade (see: Trump threatens more tariffs on Europe today). Qatar & other Gulf countries are fast rising financial powers. Canada needs to deepen relations with them (especially Qatar, UAE, Saudi). My interview with CP:
toronto.citynews.ca/2026/01/17/m...
toronto.citynews.ca/2026/01/17/m...
Carney visiting Qatar to drum up investment despite 'brutal' human rights record
Carney's office said he will be seeking more trade access and partnerships in artificial intelligence, infrastructure, energy and defence while in Qatar.
toronto.citynews.ca
January 17, 2026 at 6:08 PM
Canada badly needs to diversify its trade (see: Trump threatens more tariffs on Europe today). Qatar & other Gulf countries are fast rising financial powers. Canada needs to deepen relations with them (especially Qatar, UAE, Saudi). My interview with CP:
toronto.citynews.ca/2026/01/17/m...
toronto.citynews.ca/2026/01/17/m...
As PM Carney arrives in Qatar, re-upping my late 2025 op-ed in the Globe & Mail. As it badly needs to diversify trade relations, Canada should prioritize deeper ties with the Gulf (especially Qatar, UAE & Saudi Arabia), a region it has long neglected.
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
Opinion: Canada will need to consider growing its relations with non-democratic Gulf States
We do not have the luxury of ignoring hard foreign policy decisions
www.theglobeandmail.com
January 17, 2026 at 2:48 PM
As PM Carney arrives in Qatar, re-upping my late 2025 op-ed in the Globe & Mail. As it badly needs to diversify trade relations, Canada should prioritize deeper ties with the Gulf (especially Qatar, UAE & Saudi Arabia), a region it has long neglected.
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
My Canadian Press interview on PM Carney's Qatar visit:
-Canada has neglected the Gulf, but it is the epicenter of power in the Middle East
-we need to deal with the Gulf as it is not as we wish it were; it will not democratize & Canada has no say on that
ca.news.yahoo.com/gulf-expert-...
-Canada has neglected the Gulf, but it is the epicenter of power in the Middle East
-we need to deal with the Gulf as it is not as we wish it were; it will not democratize & Canada has no say on that
ca.news.yahoo.com/gulf-expert-...
Gulf expert says Qatar influence makes it worth Canada engaging
Prime Minister Mark Carney is visiting Qatar on the second leg of a nine-day overseas trip as he seeks more investment in Canada. University of Ottawa professor Thomas Juneau specializes in the Middle...
ca.news.yahoo.com
January 17, 2026 at 2:25 PM
My Canadian Press interview on PM Carney's Qatar visit:
-Canada has neglected the Gulf, but it is the epicenter of power in the Middle East
-we need to deal with the Gulf as it is not as we wish it were; it will not democratize & Canada has no say on that
ca.news.yahoo.com/gulf-expert-...
-Canada has neglected the Gulf, but it is the epicenter of power in the Middle East
-we need to deal with the Gulf as it is not as we wish it were; it will not democratize & Canada has no say on that
ca.news.yahoo.com/gulf-expert-...
C'était prévisible, ce n'est pas une surprise, mais ce n'est pas moins une tragédie: la brutalité inouïe de la répression en Iran est en train de réussir à vaincre les protestations. Mais la tendance est claire, il y aura une prochaine fois.
www.985fm.ca/audio/750171...
www.985fm.ca/audio/750171...
Le régime en Iran aurait repris le contrôle | «Il y a une quantité importante d'Iraniens qui vont être torturés et exécutés»
Écoutez Thomas Juneau, professeur agrégé à l Université d Ottawa, analyser la situation politique à La commission.
www.985fm.ca
January 17, 2026 at 1:17 PM
C'était prévisible, ce n'est pas une surprise, mais ce n'est pas moins une tragédie: la brutalité inouïe de la répression en Iran est en train de réussir à vaincre les protestations. Mais la tendance est claire, il y aura une prochaine fois.
www.985fm.ca/audio/750171...
www.985fm.ca/audio/750171...
La manchette du jour, gracieuseté de La Presse:
January 16, 2026 at 6:27 PM
La manchette du jour, gracieuseté de La Presse:
Mon entrevue au Téléjournal hier: le régime iranien est extrêmement vulnérable à l'interne et géopolitiquement, mais sa très grande capacité répressive - maintenant pleinement déployée - devrait lui permettre de survivre, pour le moment
ici.radio-canada.ca/info/videos/...
ici.radio-canada.ca/info/videos/...
La révolte en Iran et l’avenir de la République islamique expliqués par un politologue
Des manifestations historiques secouent l’Iran alors que le régime est de plus en plus fragilisé et que la répression est sanglante. Thomas Juneau, professeur titulaire à l'École supérieure d’affaires...
ici.radio-canada.ca
January 15, 2026 at 1:41 AM
Mon entrevue au Téléjournal hier: le régime iranien est extrêmement vulnérable à l'interne et géopolitiquement, mais sa très grande capacité répressive - maintenant pleinement déployée - devrait lui permettre de survivre, pour le moment
ici.radio-canada.ca/info/videos/...
ici.radio-canada.ca/info/videos/...
If the Islamic Republic survives the current protests (which it probably will, albeit much weakened), it will intensify its already intense efforts to target dissidents/critics abroad. It did this in past waves (eg Women, Life, Freedom), so democratic countries need to prepare.
January 14, 2026 at 3:01 PM
If the Islamic Republic survives the current protests (which it probably will, albeit much weakened), it will intensify its already intense efforts to target dissidents/critics abroad. It did this in past waves (eg Women, Life, Freedom), so democratic countries need to prepare.
A privilege to be back on The Decibel, @theglobeandmail.com podcast, to talk about the protests in Iran, where they could go next, and what the implications could be:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4-E...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4-E...
Death toll climbs as Iranians protest against regime
YouTube video by The Globe and Mail
www.youtube.com
January 14, 2026 at 2:36 PM
A privilege to be back on The Decibel, @theglobeandmail.com podcast, to talk about the protests in Iran, where they could go next, and what the implications could be:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4-E...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4-E...
Mon entrevue au 98.5FM sur les protestations en Iran, qui continuent de s'intensifier. La chute du régime ne semble pas imminente, du moins pas encore; le régime maintient encore le contrôle sur une capacité répressive importante.
www.985fm.ca/audio/748959...
www.985fm.ca/audio/748959...
Face à un gouvernement autoritaire | Révolte en Iran: «Je ne pense pas qu'une chute du régime est imminente»
Écoutez Thomas Juneau, professeur titulaire à l'École supérieure d'affaires publiques et internationales de l'Université d'Ottawa, analyser le tout.
www.985fm.ca
January 12, 2026 at 10:49 PM
Mon entrevue au 98.5FM sur les protestations en Iran, qui continuent de s'intensifier. La chute du régime ne semble pas imminente, du moins pas encore; le régime maintient encore le contrôle sur une capacité répressive importante.
www.985fm.ca/audio/748959...
www.985fm.ca/audio/748959...
Mon entrevue avec Le Devoir aujourd'hui:
January 10, 2026 at 2:40 PM
Mon entrevue avec Le Devoir aujourd'hui:
My interview on CBC's Power and Politics: because of growing street protests & heavy geopolitical losses, the Islamic Republic is in a heavily vulnerable position. Regime collapse is not imminent, but this is extremely hard to predict.
-@DavidWCochrane
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtgE...
-@DavidWCochrane
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtgE...
Anti-government protests spread in Iran as authorities impose internet blackout | Power & Politics
YouTube video by CBC News
www.youtube.com
January 10, 2026 at 2:35 PM
My interview on CBC's Power and Politics: because of growing street protests & heavy geopolitical losses, the Islamic Republic is in a heavily vulnerable position. Regime collapse is not imminent, but this is extremely hard to predict.
-@DavidWCochrane
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtgE...
-@DavidWCochrane
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtgE...
Mon entrevue avec Philippe Cantin au 98.5FM aujourd'hui: non, la République islamique ne semble pas au bord de l'effondrement... mais:
-elle sous très forte pression interne et externe, et cette pression croît
-prédire son effondrement est impossible
www.985fm.ca/audio/748596...
-elle sous très forte pression interne et externe, et cette pression croît
-prédire son effondrement est impossible
www.985fm.ca/audio/748596...
Intensification des manifestations | Révolte en Iran: le début de la fin pour le régime?
Écoutez Thomas Juneau, professeur à l Université d Ottawa et spécialiste du Moyen Orient, expliquer la situation, vendredi, au Québec maintenant.
www.985fm.ca
January 9, 2026 at 11:08 PM
Mon entrevue avec Philippe Cantin au 98.5FM aujourd'hui: non, la République islamique ne semble pas au bord de l'effondrement... mais:
-elle sous très forte pression interne et externe, et cette pression croît
-prédire son effondrement est impossible
www.985fm.ca/audio/748596...
-elle sous très forte pression interne et externe, et cette pression croît
-prédire son effondrement est impossible
www.985fm.ca/audio/748596...
This is good: after his visit to the UAE a few weeks ago, this will help Canada deepen relations in the Gulf.
Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, will travel to Qatar on 18 January. He will be the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit Qatar.
globalnews.ca/news/1160536...
Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, will travel to Qatar on 18 January. He will be the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit Qatar.
globalnews.ca/news/1160536...
Carney to visit Qatar between diplomatic stops in China, Switzerland - National | Globalnews.ca
Carney's office says he will be the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit the middle eastern country as he seeks to broaden trade relations and drum up foreign investment.
globalnews.ca
January 9, 2026 at 12:10 AM
This is good: after his visit to the UAE a few weeks ago, this will help Canada deepen relations in the Gulf.
Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, will travel to Qatar on 18 January. He will be the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit Qatar.
globalnews.ca/news/1160536...
Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, will travel to Qatar on 18 January. He will be the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit Qatar.
globalnews.ca/news/1160536...
Harsh but probably true:
"The Islamic Republic deserves to be swept into the dustbin of history. But the harsh reality is that there will be no soft transition away from it. Any regime change will likely be violent, prolonged, and destructive"
@borzou.bsky.social
borzou.substack.com/p/protests-w...
"The Islamic Republic deserves to be swept into the dustbin of history. But the harsh reality is that there will be no soft transition away from it. Any regime change will likely be violent, prolonged, and destructive"
@borzou.bsky.social
borzou.substack.com/p/protests-w...
Protests Won’t Bring Down The Iranian Regime
The downfall of the Islamic Republic will be nasty, brutish, and likely long.
borzou.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 12:03 AM
Harsh but probably true:
"The Islamic Republic deserves to be swept into the dustbin of history. But the harsh reality is that there will be no soft transition away from it. Any regime change will likely be violent, prolonged, and destructive"
@borzou.bsky.social
borzou.substack.com/p/protests-w...
"The Islamic Republic deserves to be swept into the dustbin of history. But the harsh reality is that there will be no soft transition away from it. Any regime change will likely be violent, prolonged, and destructive"
@borzou.bsky.social
borzou.substack.com/p/protests-w...
Six years ago today, on 8 January 2020, Iran's IRGC shot down flight PS752, killing all 176 on board, including 55 Canadian citiziens and 30 permanent residents.
May the memory of those aboard PS752 be a blessing.
May the memory of those aboard PS752 be a blessing.
January 8, 2026 at 11:04 PM
Six years ago today, on 8 January 2020, Iran's IRGC shot down flight PS752, killing all 176 on board, including 55 Canadian citiziens and 30 permanent residents.
May the memory of those aboard PS752 be a blessing.
May the memory of those aboard PS752 be a blessing.
Big protests in Iran tonight.
-regime collapse is not imminent
-...but any regime's stability is extremely unpredictable & we are all bad at predictions
-indicators to watch: protest size (growing); defections + fissures in the regime & chain of command (not significant so far)
-regime collapse is not imminent
-...but any regime's stability is extremely unpredictable & we are all bad at predictions
-indicators to watch: protest size (growing); defections + fissures in the regime & chain of command (not significant so far)
January 8, 2026 at 10:19 PM
Big protests in Iran tonight.
-regime collapse is not imminent
-...but any regime's stability is extremely unpredictable & we are all bad at predictions
-indicators to watch: protest size (growing); defections + fissures in the regime & chain of command (not significant so far)
-regime collapse is not imminent
-...but any regime's stability is extremely unpredictable & we are all bad at predictions
-indicators to watch: protest size (growing); defections + fissures in the regime & chain of command (not significant so far)
Je serai à 24 heures en 60 minutes à RDI vers 19h45 ce soir pour parler des protestations en Iran
January 6, 2026 at 11:42 PM
Je serai à 24 heures en 60 minutes à RDI vers 19h45 ce soir pour parler des protestations en Iran
Reposted by Thomas Juneau
Thank you so much for reviewing my book 🙏
My review of @kristianulrichsen.bsky.social's new book, Centers of Power in the Arab Gulf States:
-a "sweeping and rigorous review and synthesis of the literature on the exercise of power"; "an invaluable reference... to better understand the six Arab states of the Persian Gulf".
-a "sweeping and rigorous review and synthesis of the literature on the exercise of power"; "an invaluable reference... to better understand the six Arab states of the Persian Gulf".
January 5, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Thank you so much for reviewing my book 🙏
My review of @kristianulrichsen.bsky.social's new book, Centers of Power in the Arab Gulf States:
-a "sweeping and rigorous review and synthesis of the literature on the exercise of power"; "an invaluable reference... to better understand the six Arab states of the Persian Gulf".
-a "sweeping and rigorous review and synthesis of the literature on the exercise of power"; "an invaluable reference... to better understand the six Arab states of the Persian Gulf".
January 5, 2026 at 2:31 PM
My review of @kristianulrichsen.bsky.social's new book, Centers of Power in the Arab Gulf States:
-a "sweeping and rigorous review and synthesis of the literature on the exercise of power"; "an invaluable reference... to better understand the six Arab states of the Persian Gulf".
-a "sweeping and rigorous review and synthesis of the literature on the exercise of power"; "an invaluable reference... to better understand the six Arab states of the Persian Gulf".
I agree - the envoy on combatting antisemitism position has been vacant for 6 months now, and a new person should be reappointed urgently
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
The position has been vacant since former envoy Deborah Lyons resigned in July
www.theglobeandmail.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:19 PM
I agree - the envoy on combatting antisemitism position has been vacant for 6 months now, and a new person should be reappointed urgently
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have pursued divergent goals in Yemen since 2015. Opposition to the Houthis allowed them to maintain a facade of unity & agree to disagree on the rest, but this was unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. For more on UAE goals:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The UAE and the War in Yemen: From Surge to Recalibration
In 2019 the United Arab Emirates undertook to recalibrate its intervention in the Yemen conflict, without ending it altogether.
www.tandfonline.com
December 30, 2025 at 1:50 PM
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have pursued divergent goals in Yemen since 2015. Opposition to the Houthis allowed them to maintain a facade of unity & agree to disagree on the rest, but this was unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. For more on UAE goals:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
There has been a consistent pattern in Yemen for decades, of regional and great powers viewing the country as a theatre to pursue broader ambitions. This has been the case for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, now confronting each other, and also for the US and Iran (and others).
December 30, 2025 at 1:43 PM
There has been a consistent pattern in Yemen for decades, of regional and great powers viewing the country as a theatre to pursue broader ambitions. This has been the case for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, now confronting each other, and also for the US and Iran (and others).
Reposted by Thomas Juneau
One of our most-read articles of 2025: @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyzes Iran’s annus horribilis and lays out the potential for the Islamic Republic “to claw back its losses” amid the “new normal in the regional balance of power.” Open access:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Iran's Annus Horribilis in 2024: Beaten, but Not Defeated
Iran and the Axis of Resistance—the armed nonstate actors that it supports, plus the Assad regime in Syria—had a horrible 2024. Hamas and Hezbollah suffered heavy blows at the hands of Israel. Bashar...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
December 25, 2025 at 2:58 PM
One of our most-read articles of 2025: @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyzes Iran’s annus horribilis and lays out the potential for the Islamic Republic “to claw back its losses” amid the “new normal in the regional balance of power.” Open access:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
First time skiing this year. Not bad conditions at all for a December 23rd.
cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social
cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social
December 23, 2025 at 9:39 PM
First time skiing this year. Not bad conditions at all for a December 23rd.
cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social
cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social