Ted Hoffman's Actuarials
@tedhoffman.bsky.social
Guy who does the actuarials on stuff. Also does analytics, not "teh analytics." Follows weather for a hobby. Ascended in Nethack twice. Defeated the arcade game Gauntlet. Probably other stuff you don't care about either. Pretty funny for an actuary.
Pinned
Why do we even have laws if they don’t apply to certain people?
Always remember: rules and laws without enforcement are merely suggestions that will be ignored by some, to the detriment of all.
"I object, Republicans."
...
"No, you don't understand - I'm serious. I strenuously object."
...
"No, you don't understand - I'm serious. I strenuously object."
February 5, 2026 at 2:15 AM
"I object, Republicans."
...
"No, you don't understand - I'm serious. I strenuously object."
...
"No, you don't understand - I'm serious. I strenuously object."
After watching that meltdown against the Predators, there is *zero* excuse for not burning it all down and going into a full-fledged rebuild.
I don't want to hear Armstrong bleat about what he thinks the fans won't put up with. They sure as hell won't put up with what this team is doing.
I don't want to hear Armstrong bleat about what he thinks the fans won't put up with. They sure as hell won't put up with what this team is doing.
February 3, 2026 at 3:53 AM
After watching that meltdown against the Predators, there is *zero* excuse for not burning it all down and going into a full-fledged rebuild.
I don't want to hear Armstrong bleat about what he thinks the fans won't put up with. They sure as hell won't put up with what this team is doing.
I don't want to hear Armstrong bleat about what he thinks the fans won't put up with. They sure as hell won't put up with what this team is doing.
When people ask "do you really think you can do better than ______" it's things like this that make me say without flinching, "yes - I absolutely can."
Among other reasons, because I don't do bullshit "analysis" like is described here.
Among other reasons, because I don't do bullshit "analysis" like is described here.
All of the deal making, this line from the piece "One analytics consultant called the Vikings’ process insultingly simple — prioritizing Ingram because he had 35 starts in college, for example", this is all Finance Guy Bullshit
Moreover, ICE must be destroyed
Moreover, ICE must be destroyed
February 3, 2026 at 1:05 AM
When people ask "do you really think you can do better than ______" it's things like this that make me say without flinching, "yes - I absolutely can."
Among other reasons, because I don't do bullshit "analysis" like is described here.
Among other reasons, because I don't do bullshit "analysis" like is described here.
I would say "this is where you should post the article where you clearly define various terms that are freely thrown around by people that distorts or misunderstands what their favorite term means" but that requires those people to then read it.
As history has shown, that's way too difficult.
As history has shown, that's way too difficult.
January 30, 2026 at 10:01 PM
I would say "this is where you should post the article where you clearly define various terms that are freely thrown around by people that distorts or misunderstands what their favorite term means" but that requires those people to then read it.
As history has shown, that's way too difficult.
As history has shown, that's way too difficult.
Watching the #Blues mail in another pathetic effort - this one against the #Stars - and it's apparent this season's team is done.
As in, "turn off the lights, start stripping it down and sell of what you can and start a rebuild, because we're rebuilding one way or another" kind of done.
As in, "turn off the lights, start stripping it down and sell of what you can and start a rebuild, because we're rebuilding one way or another" kind of done.
January 28, 2026 at 2:57 AM
cc: @gregdoucette.bsky.social - Cops are great.
January 27, 2026 at 4:01 PM
cc: @gregdoucette.bsky.social - Cops are great.
When you've lost Sepp Blatter on the way to extorting millions of dollars from fans, ...
January 26, 2026 at 6:07 PM
When you've lost Sepp Blatter on the way to extorting millions of dollars from fans, ...
Reposted by Ted Hoffman's Actuarials
How many years have we been watching gun nuts open carry semiautomatic rifles into, like, a Dunkin' Donuts as a statement against government control? And they're now silent over a citizen being murdered by federal agents and then blamed for legally carrying a firearm?
January 26, 2026 at 5:49 PM
How many years have we been watching gun nuts open carry semiautomatic rifles into, like, a Dunkin' Donuts as a statement against government control? And they're now silent over a citizen being murdered by federal agents and then blamed for legally carrying a firearm?
I have a bad feeling watching the reporting of the case before Judge Menendez re: State of Minnesota vs. DOJ that the state is going to lose / get a *very* partial win, and ICE will simply accelerate its tactics and aggression as a result.
January 26, 2026 at 5:08 PM
I have a bad feeling watching the reporting of the case before Judge Menendez re: State of Minnesota vs. DOJ that the state is going to lose / get a *very* partial win, and ICE will simply accelerate its tactics and aggression as a result.
Ron, you missed the secret wording in the 2nd Amendment that says "the right to bear arms shall not be infringed ... unless you're showing up at a protest, and it's a protest that hurts the delicate feelings of conservative snowflakes - in which case, the 2nd Amendment no longer applies to you."
January 26, 2026 at 2:31 AM
Ron, you missed the secret wording in the 2nd Amendment that says "the right to bear arms shall not be infringed ... unless you're showing up at a protest, and it's a protest that hurts the delicate feelings of conservative snowflakes - in which case, the 2nd Amendment no longer applies to you."
Her check from the administration must have bounced on Friday.
January 25, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Her check from the administration must have bounced on Friday.
Do I think other countries will bail out on this World Cup? No.
Do I think they should? Absolutely.
Do I think UEFA could cobble together a Euro 2020-like tournament on ~5 months notice? Probably.
Will it? Probably not - but if it did, it would have a more popular, higher quality tournament.
Do I think they should? Absolutely.
Do I think UEFA could cobble together a Euro 2020-like tournament on ~5 months notice? Probably.
Will it? Probably not - but if it did, it would have a more popular, higher quality tournament.
January 25, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Do I think other countries will bail out on this World Cup? No.
Do I think they should? Absolutely.
Do I think UEFA could cobble together a Euro 2020-like tournament on ~5 months notice? Probably.
Will it? Probably not - but if it did, it would have a more popular, higher quality tournament.
Do I think they should? Absolutely.
Do I think UEFA could cobble together a Euro 2020-like tournament on ~5 months notice? Probably.
Will it? Probably not - but if it did, it would have a more popular, higher quality tournament.
Yes, Euro 2020 had multiple venues. That was also decided years in advance; it was only "last minute" changes with Bilabao [to Seville] and Dublin [to Saint Petersburg], not the entire tournament getting uprooted and located elsewhere and 40+ teams having to scramble to plan accordingly.
January 25, 2026 at 4:16 PM
Yes, Euro 2020 had multiple venues. That was also decided years in advance; it was only "last minute" changes with Bilabao [to Seville] and Dublin [to Saint Petersburg], not the entire tournament getting uprooted and located elsewhere and 40+ teams having to scramble to plan accordingly.
The passive voice is getting abused by the media so much, you'd think ICE had captured it in one of its raids.
January 25, 2026 at 1:32 PM
The passive voice is getting abused by the media so much, you'd think ICE had captured it in one of its raids.
Colombia bailed out in November 1982; Mexico got it in May 1983. That left 3 years to prepare, even with the Mexico City 1985 earthquake.
Better idea: other countries bail out, saying "we're going to host our own tournament this time around." Europe could ad-hoc something quickly.
Better idea: other countries bail out, saying "we're going to host our own tournament this time around." Europe could ad-hoc something quickly.
January 25, 2026 at 1:29 PM
Colombia bailed out in November 1982; Mexico got it in May 1983. That left 3 years to prepare, even with the Mexico City 1985 earthquake.
Better idea: other countries bail out, saying "we're going to host our own tournament this time around." Europe could ad-hoc something quickly.
Better idea: other countries bail out, saying "we're going to host our own tournament this time around." Europe could ad-hoc something quickly.
It's a collection of supposedly good pieces that don't fit together, and everyone is looking around for a leader (*not* Brayden Schenn) to follow.
This is not a roster that's a piece or two away, or a year or two of development away. It's multiple pieces and at least 2 swift kicks in the ass away.
This is not a roster that's a piece or two away, or a year or two of development away. It's multiple pieces and at least 2 swift kicks in the ass away.
January 24, 2026 at 3:10 PM
It's a collection of supposedly good pieces that don't fit together, and everyone is looking around for a leader (*not* Brayden Schenn) to follow.
This is not a roster that's a piece or two away, or a year or two of development away. It's multiple pieces and at least 2 swift kicks in the ass away.
This is not a roster that's a piece or two away, or a year or two of development away. It's multiple pieces and at least 2 swift kicks in the ass away.
This would be a great time for Doug Armstrong to call out this roster he created.
"But there's been injuries." Ok, guys get to half-ass it until the entire band is together? Way too many nights it's a display of skating around aimlessly and selfish play. 46 points overstates how bad this team is.
"But there's been injuries." Ok, guys get to half-ass it until the entire band is together? Way too many nights it's a display of skating around aimlessly and selfish play. 46 points overstates how bad this team is.
January 24, 2026 at 3:07 PM
This would be a great time for Doug Armstrong to call out this roster he created.
"But there's been injuries." Ok, guys get to half-ass it until the entire band is together? Way too many nights it's a display of skating around aimlessly and selfish play. 46 points overstates how bad this team is.
"But there's been injuries." Ok, guys get to half-ass it until the entire band is together? Way too many nights it's a display of skating around aimlessly and selfish play. 46 points overstates how bad this team is.
Then companies why they can't retain talent, morale sucks, and they can't get things done.
But goddamnit, someone will come sit in a cube - or if that person is lucky, an office - and occupy space there, and that's worth the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to replace others and do shit.
But goddamnit, someone will come sit in a cube - or if that person is lucky, an office - and occupy space there, and that's worth the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to replace others and do shit.
January 21, 2026 at 8:48 PM
Then companies why they can't retain talent, morale sucks, and they can't get things done.
But goddamnit, someone will come sit in a cube - or if that person is lucky, an office - and occupy space there, and that's worth the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to replace others and do shit.
But goddamnit, someone will come sit in a cube - or if that person is lucky, an office - and occupy space there, and that's worth the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to replace others and do shit.
If "rebuild" isn't in the cards, shut down all the talk now and figure out which next 're-' word to use to describe what's going on that's not a rebuild and figure out how to do that, but this time do it successfully.
January 21, 2026 at 6:58 PM
If "rebuild" isn't in the cards, shut down all the talk now and figure out which next 're-' word to use to describe what's going on that's not a rebuild and figure out how to do that, but this time do it successfully.
If Armstrong is considering offers for Thomas, then it's a sign to gut the roster and rebuild. It's also a sign that it's time for Steen take over - and with that, Armstrong needs to move on to whatever comes next after the Blues, not have "Armstrong might take over again" hanging over Steen.
January 21, 2026 at 6:57 PM
If Armstrong is considering offers for Thomas, then it's a sign to gut the roster and rebuild. It's also a sign that it's time for Steen take over - and with that, Armstrong needs to move on to whatever comes next after the Blues, not have "Armstrong might take over again" hanging over Steen.
1. That was among the worst NHL games I've seen in a while.
2. A rebuild is coming.
3. There were flashes of talent, signs you're hopeful of the future, but in the end it was "lots of effort, no real plan." That does not bode well for the kids, no matter how much talent they allegedly have.
2. A rebuild is coming.
3. There were flashes of talent, signs you're hopeful of the future, but in the end it was "lots of effort, no real plan." That does not bode well for the kids, no matter how much talent they allegedly have.
January 21, 2026 at 6:49 PM
1. That was among the worst NHL games I've seen in a while.
2. A rebuild is coming.
3. There were flashes of talent, signs you're hopeful of the future, but in the end it was "lots of effort, no real plan." That does not bode well for the kids, no matter how much talent they allegedly have.
2. A rebuild is coming.
3. There were flashes of talent, signs you're hopeful of the future, but in the end it was "lots of effort, no real plan." That does not bode well for the kids, no matter how much talent they allegedly have.
Vancouver and NY Rangers watching this game thinking "man, I wish we could be this good."
January 21, 2026 at 3:25 AM
Vancouver and NY Rangers watching this game thinking "man, I wish we could be this good."
When watching a contest, the correct answers on who to root for are:
1. Florida
2. Whatever helps Florida, unless it involves FSU or Miami
3. Whoever's playing FSU or Miami
4. FSU, but *only* if they're playing Miami.
5. Anything that causes the game to not be played.
999. A tie
Never: Miami
1. Florida
2. Whatever helps Florida, unless it involves FSU or Miami
3. Whoever's playing FSU or Miami
4. FSU, but *only* if they're playing Miami.
5. Anything that causes the game to not be played.
999. A tie
Never: Miami
January 20, 2026 at 12:27 AM
When watching a contest, the correct answers on who to root for are:
1. Florida
2. Whatever helps Florida, unless it involves FSU or Miami
3. Whoever's playing FSU or Miami
4. FSU, but *only* if they're playing Miami.
5. Anything that causes the game to not be played.
999. A tie
Never: Miami
1. Florida
2. Whatever helps Florida, unless it involves FSU or Miami
3. Whoever's playing FSU or Miami
4. FSU, but *only* if they're playing Miami.
5. Anything that causes the game to not be played.
999. A tie
Never: Miami