Tom Bonier
@tbonier.bsky.social
CEO @ The TARA Group, Senior Advisor @ TargetSmart, Former @ Howard University, Clarity Campaign Labs, NCEC
https://tombonier.substack.com/
https://tombonier.substack.com/
Reposted by Tom Bonier
A short thread on letting go of Zombie, pre-Trump 2025-2026 understanding of politics......
We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/
We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/
I think Dem strategists and comms/data folks need to recognize that we are in a period of discontinuity. What's happening now is not like what's come before. It's all new. And we need to stay close to the data that's in front of us, not bring old fights into the ones we now find ourselves in.
From Hopium:
- Democrats must work hard now to restore rule of law in America, rein in ICE
- Vance and Rubio are bringing great shame to the US today
- We must do more to support the opposition in Iran
- Imagining "a new birth of freedom" in the world
👇
www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/restoring-...
- Democrats must work hard now to restore rule of law in America, rein in ICE
- Vance and Rubio are bringing great shame to the US today
- We must do more to support the opposition in Iran
- Imagining "a new birth of freedom" in the world
👇
www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/restoring-...
January 15, 2026 at 3:22 PM
A short thread on letting go of Zombie, pre-Trump 2025-2026 understanding of politics......
We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/
We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/
We have the turnout data now from the 2025 election in PA that saw the Dems sweep the statewide judicial races, as well as downballot races.
Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.
Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.
January 9, 2026 at 1:22 AM
We have the turnout data now from the 2025 election in PA that saw the Dems sweep the statewide judicial races, as well as downballot races.
Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.
Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.
Look at turnout by age/party in New Jersey - Dems outperformed GOPs in turnout % among every age <45, with the biggest advantage among 21 and 22 year olds (+10% Dem turnout).
December 9, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Look at turnout by age/party in New Jersey - Dems outperformed GOPs in turnout % among every age <45, with the biggest advantage among 21 and 22 year olds (+10% Dem turnout).
There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.
Just in the last few mins more votes have come in, and total turnout in this special stands at 96% of the 2022 November election. With more votes coming in Nashville, it could EXCEED 2022.
The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.
The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.
The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year.
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
December 3, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Just in the last few mins more votes have come in, and total turnout in this special stands at 96% of the 2022 November election. With more votes coming in Nashville, it could EXCEED 2022.
The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.
The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.
The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year.
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
December 3, 2025 at 2:38 AM
The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year.
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
Davidson County dropped 21 of 58 precincts eday vote. An incredibly strong performance for Behn, but just not enough of an overperformance in terms of swing or turnout to overcome the +22 GOP baseline in the district.
December 3, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Davidson County dropped 21 of 58 precincts eday vote. An incredibly strong performance for Behn, but just not enough of an overperformance in terms of swing or turnout to overcome the +22 GOP baseline in the district.
It looks like Perry County is the first TN7 County to fully report (or very close to it). Trump carried it by 69 pts, Van Epps won it by 55. So a massive 14 pt margin swing to Dems, but not the 22pts necessary districtwide. This is one small county, but Behn will need more.
December 3, 2025 at 1:59 AM
It looks like Perry County is the first TN7 County to fully report (or very close to it). Trump carried it by 69 pts, Van Epps won it by 55. So a massive 14 pt margin swing to Dems, but not the 22pts necessary districtwide. This is one small county, but Behn will need more.
Davidson County (Nashville) early/abs vote is in, and it is solid for Behn. 85% - a strong performance for the Dem candidate. So... now we have to see how long it will take to report Election Day vote, but kudos to the election officials in TN for getting a quick release of EVAV.
December 3, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Davidson County (Nashville) early/abs vote is in, and it is solid for Behn. 85% - a strong performance for the Dem candidate. So... now we have to see how long it will take to report Election Day vote, but kudos to the election officials in TN for getting a quick release of EVAV.
Here's an interesting one - Trump won the early/abs vote in Montgomery County, TN by about 21 pts last year. Behn (the Dem) won the EVAV this year by about 3 pts. That 24 pt swing would be enough for Behn to win... the issue is...
December 3, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Here's an interesting one - Trump won the early/abs vote in Montgomery County, TN by about 21 pts last year. Behn (the Dem) won the EVAV this year by about 3 pts. That 24 pt swing would be enough for Behn to win... the issue is...
One reason I'm looking forward to a competitive Dem presidential primary in '28: it's good for the party and will boost Dem registration.
These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.
These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.
November 26, 2025 at 12:56 AM
One reason I'm looking forward to a competitive Dem presidential primary in '28: it's good for the party and will boost Dem registration.
These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.
These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.
And now to pivot away from politics in advance of the Thanksgiving break... any of my folks here into astrophotography, and willing to answer annoying questions from an extreme novice from time to time?
November 25, 2025 at 10:19 PM
And now to pivot away from politics in advance of the Thanksgiving break... any of my folks here into astrophotography, and willing to answer annoying questions from an extreme novice from time to time?
Evidence that the massive swing among young voters back to Dems that we saw in NY, VA, and NJ earlier this month is not limited to those states.
Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R.
In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.
Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R.
In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.
November 25, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Evidence that the massive swing among young voters back to Dems that we saw in NY, VA, and NJ earlier this month is not limited to those states.
Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R.
In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.
Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R.
In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.
Looking at the new voter registrations in PA over the past year+ shows some very interesting trends.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Looking at the new voter registrations in PA over the past year+ shows some very interesting trends.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
Reposted by Tom Bonier
This is actually a really interesting conversation with @tbonier.bsky.social about one of the biggest issues plaguing Democrats right now, which is poor voter registration numbers.
But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too.
youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...
But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too.
youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...
The Huge MISTAKES Democrats Have Made In The Trump Era | Chuck Todd Politics Podcast
YouTube video by The Chuck ToddCast
youtu.be
October 16, 2025 at 8:09 PM
This is actually a really interesting conversation with @tbonier.bsky.social about one of the biggest issues plaguing Democrats right now, which is poor voter registration numbers.
But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too.
youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...
But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too.
youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...
In the immediate aftermath of Charlie Kirk's murder, I saw a fair amount of speculation as to whether or not we would see a "Charlie Kirk Effect" in new voter registrations. It's still too early to fully answer this question, but there's not much evidence of it, as of now.
October 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
In the immediate aftermath of Charlie Kirk's murder, I saw a fair amount of speculation as to whether or not we would see a "Charlie Kirk Effect" in new voter registrations. It's still too early to fully answer this question, but there's not much evidence of it, as of now.
Our mission has always been about giving our clients the tools/data they need to reach their targets. Which is why we built the Media Buying Platform. Read more about how it can be your secret weapon, while making your valuable ad spend go much further.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
Why We Built the Media Buying Platform
In today’s digital advertising landscape, political campaigns face a paradox. While digital advertising is more powerful and targetable than ever, the infrastructure behind it is increasingly opaque, ...
www.linkedin.com
July 11, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Our mission has always been about giving our clients the tools/data they need to reach their targets. Which is why we built the Media Buying Platform. Read more about how it can be your secret weapon, while making your valuable ad spend go much further.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
I'll be on with Edwin shortly!
Today on WCPT820AM & @heartlandsignal.bsky.social: we'll unpack this jawdropping week with my incredible guests:
+ @swingleft.bsky.social
+ @davidpepperoh.bsky.social
+ @nicholsuprising.bsky.social
+ @tbonier.bsky.social
🤳Stream 1-4pm CT bit.ly/3DAcG8s
+ @swingleft.bsky.social
+ @davidpepperoh.bsky.social
+ @nicholsuprising.bsky.social
+ @tbonier.bsky.social
🤳Stream 1-4pm CT bit.ly/3DAcG8s
June 28, 2025 at 7:49 PM
I'll be on with Edwin shortly!
In case you missed here, here's the recording of my session with @simonwdc.bsky.social yesterday. It's a bit of a good news/bad news presentation, but the bottom line is, there are great opportunities in front of us. www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-need-...
June 21, 2025 at 12:41 PM
In case you missed here, here's the recording of my session with @simonwdc.bsky.social yesterday. It's a bit of a good news/bad news presentation, but the bottom line is, there are great opportunities in front of us. www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-need-...
I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?
LIVE SOON: Tom Bonier Comes By With Some New Data and Analysis
Starting Jun 20 at 2:15 PM EDT
open.substack.com
June 20, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?
Reposted by Tom Bonier
Trump is the biggest fuck up in American history.
New Gallup poll finds an all-time high in the share of Americans saying their financial situation is “getting worse”
April 22, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Trump is the biggest fuck up in American history.
Reposted by Tom Bonier
Over on The Hellsite, JD Vance has now functionally called for an end to due process for migrants. His argument is riddled with deceptions, bad faith, and embarrassingly awful logic. I think it needs a real response, so here's what I put up over there.
First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
April 17, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Over on The Hellsite, JD Vance has now functionally called for an end to due process for migrants. His argument is riddled with deceptions, bad faith, and embarrassingly awful logic. I think it needs a real response, so here's what I put up over there.
First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
I've been direct in recent weeks, noting that Dem deficiencies in voter registration have persisted in the few states where files have been updated since Jan 20th, though also noting those updates covered only a few weeks of the Trump admin. Now we have a VA file through Feb.
March 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
I've been direct in recent weeks, noting that Dem deficiencies in voter registration have persisted in the few states where files have been updated since Jan 20th, though also noting those updates covered only a few weeks of the Trump admin. Now we have a VA file through Feb.
Trump is busy destroying the country, so naturally leading Dems are fighting back by attacking trans women.
Democratic strategist James Carville did an interview with Fox News to encourage more lawmakers in his party to come out against trans people in sports and agree with Gavin Newsom
"I think that's a view that most Americans have”
www.foxnews.com/media/james-...
"I think that's a view that most Americans have”
www.foxnews.com/media/james-...
James Carville predicts more Dems will follow Gavin Newsom in speaking out on trans athletes in women's sports
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville predicted other Democrats will follow Gavin Newsom and oppose trans athletes in women's sports.
www.foxnews.com
March 18, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Trump is busy destroying the country, so naturally leading Dems are fighting back by attacking trans women.
Great to see two Americans winning in Paris-Nice today,
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.
March 16, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Great to see two Americans winning in Paris-Nice today,
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.