Tom Bonier
@tbonier.bsky.social
CEO @ The TARA Group, Senior Advisor @ TargetSmart, Former @ Howard University, Clarity Campaign Labs, NCEC
https://tombonier.substack.com/
https://tombonier.substack.com/
Reposted by Tom Bonier
A short thread on letting go of Zombie, pre-Trump 2025-2026 understanding of politics......
We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/
We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/
I think Dem strategists and comms/data folks need to recognize that we are in a period of discontinuity. What's happening now is not like what's come before. It's all new. And we need to stay close to the data that's in front of us, not bring old fights into the ones we now find ourselves in.
From Hopium:
- Democrats must work hard now to restore rule of law in America, rein in ICE
- Vance and Rubio are bringing great shame to the US today
- We must do more to support the opposition in Iran
- Imagining "a new birth of freedom" in the world
👇
www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/restoring-...
- Democrats must work hard now to restore rule of law in America, rein in ICE
- Vance and Rubio are bringing great shame to the US today
- We must do more to support the opposition in Iran
- Imagining "a new birth of freedom" in the world
👇
www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/restoring-...
January 15, 2026 at 3:22 PM
A short thread on letting go of Zombie, pre-Trump 2025-2026 understanding of politics......
We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/
We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/
Republicans seem to in denial of the wild unpopularity of their actions, and the looming political disaster they are speedwalking into.
January 9, 2026 at 1:22 AM
Republicans seem to in denial of the wild unpopularity of their actions, and the looming political disaster they are speedwalking into.
In 2020 GOP turnout exceeded Dem by 7.1%, and by 6.4% in 2022 and 2024. Yet in 2025, Dem turnout in PA exceed GOP turnout by 8%. That's a swing of close to 15 pts in favor of Dems, just in turnout.
January 9, 2026 at 1:22 AM
In 2020 GOP turnout exceeded Dem by 7.1%, and by 6.4% in 2022 and 2024. Yet in 2025, Dem turnout in PA exceed GOP turnout by 8%. That's a swing of close to 15 pts in favor of Dems, just in turnout.
We have the turnout data now from the 2025 election in PA that saw the Dems sweep the statewide judicial races, as well as downballot races.
Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.
Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.
January 9, 2026 at 1:22 AM
We have the turnout data now from the 2025 election in PA that saw the Dems sweep the statewide judicial races, as well as downballot races.
Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.
Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.
I have to assume it is some combination of lack of mobility and higher death rates (it can take some time for people to be purged from the voter rolls).
December 9, 2025 at 10:24 PM
I have to assume it is some combination of lack of mobility and higher death rates (it can take some time for people to be purged from the voter rolls).
As far as total turnout by party, here are the differentials from 2021 to 2025. GOP turnout actually increased over 2021, but only slightly. Dem turnout saw a massive increase of 14.7 pts.
December 9, 2025 at 10:19 PM
As far as total turnout by party, here are the differentials from 2021 to 2025. GOP turnout actually increased over 2021, but only slightly. Dem turnout saw a massive increase of 14.7 pts.
There was a massive youth vote surge in NJ this year. In 2021 voters under 30 accounted for 7.1% of all votes cast. This year they were 11.5% of the electorate.
December 9, 2025 at 10:04 PM
There was a massive youth vote surge in NJ this year. In 2021 voters under 30 accounted for 7.1% of all votes cast. This year they were 11.5% of the electorate.
Look at turnout by age/party in New Jersey - Dems outperformed GOPs in turnout % among every age <45, with the biggest advantage among 21 and 22 year olds (+10% Dem turnout).
December 9, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Look at turnout by age/party in New Jersey - Dems outperformed GOPs in turnout % among every age <45, with the biggest advantage among 21 and 22 year olds (+10% Dem turnout).
Past special elections with massive swings to Dems could be explained away by GOPs, because turnout was relatively low. Not this one. Republicans should be deeply concerned.
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Past special elections with massive swings to Dems could be explained away by GOPs, because turnout was relatively low. Not this one. Republicans should be deeply concerned.
There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.
December 3, 2025 at 3:17 AM
There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.
Just in the last few mins more votes have come in, and total turnout in this special stands at 96% of the 2022 November election. With more votes coming in Nashville, it could EXCEED 2022.
The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.
The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.
The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year.
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
December 3, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Just in the last few mins more votes have come in, and total turnout in this special stands at 96% of the 2022 November election. With more votes coming in Nashville, it could EXCEED 2022.
The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.
The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.
Sorry, just pointing out the miscommunication between you and the OP. Turnout now is at 96% of 2022 total turnout.
December 3, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Sorry, just pointing out the miscommunication between you and the OP. Turnout now is at 96% of 2022 total turnout.
Updating - total reported turnout in the TN7 special is now 168k, or 93% of the total votes cast in the November, 2022 midterm general election, a race the GOP won by 22 pts. The GOP has some serious issues right now.
December 3, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Updating - total reported turnout in the TN7 special is now 168k, or 93% of the total votes cast in the November, 2022 midterm general election, a race the GOP won by 22 pts. The GOP has some serious issues right now.
Currently standing at 93% of 2022 turnout, with 9 precincts in Davidson still to be reported, and a handful throughout the rest of the district.
December 3, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Currently standing at 93% of 2022 turnout, with 9 precincts in Davidson still to be reported, and a handful throughout the rest of the district.
Nah, it is currently at 93% of 2022 GE turnout. It's a big deal.
December 3, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Nah, it is currently at 93% of 2022 GE turnout. It's a big deal.
While I'm sure GOPs are breathing a sigh of relief for the short term here, they have to be very concerned about how the electorate is abandoning them.
December 3, 2025 at 2:38 AM
While I'm sure GOPs are breathing a sigh of relief for the short term here, they have to be very concerned about how the electorate is abandoning them.
Total turnout in this special election race is approaching 90% of the last midterm's (2022) general election turnout. This was a VERY high turnout special election, and still saw a double digit swing away from GOPs.
December 3, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Total turnout in this special election race is approaching 90% of the last midterm's (2022) general election turnout. This was a VERY high turnout special election, and still saw a double digit swing away from GOPs.
The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year.
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
December 3, 2025 at 2:38 AM
The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year.
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.
That's not true here...
I hear you, but this is going to end up being a double digit margin swing to Dems. Obviously a win would have been very, very, nice but this is a bad sign for Republicans.
December 3, 2025 at 2:25 AM
I hear you, but this is going to end up being a double digit margin swing to Dems. Obviously a win would have been very, very, nice but this is a bad sign for Republicans.
Davidson County dropped 21 of 58 precincts eday vote. An incredibly strong performance for Behn, but just not enough of an overperformance in terms of swing or turnout to overcome the +22 GOP baseline in the district.
December 3, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Davidson County dropped 21 of 58 precincts eday vote. An incredibly strong performance for Behn, but just not enough of an overperformance in terms of swing or turnout to overcome the +22 GOP baseline in the district.
Nobody knows, except maybe the people currently tallying those votes!
December 3, 2025 at 2:09 AM
Nobody knows, except maybe the people currently tallying those votes!
Now Decatur County is fully in, showing a 10 pt margin swing. And Houston, with an 11 pt swing. Again, massive swings towards Dems, but not the 22 pts needed. Behn will need some massive Eday turnout in Nashville.
December 3, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Now Decatur County is fully in, showing a 10 pt margin swing. And Houston, with an 11 pt swing. Again, massive swings towards Dems, but not the 22 pts needed. Behn will need some massive Eday turnout in Nashville.
It looks like Perry County is the first TN7 County to fully report (or very close to it). Trump carried it by 69 pts, Van Epps won it by 55. So a massive 14 pt margin swing to Dems, but not the 22pts necessary districtwide. This is one small county, but Behn will need more.
December 3, 2025 at 1:59 AM
It looks like Perry County is the first TN7 County to fully report (or very close to it). Trump carried it by 69 pts, Van Epps won it by 55. So a massive 14 pt margin swing to Dems, but not the 22pts necessary districtwide. This is one small county, but Behn will need more.
NYT projects about 17k more votes to be counted in Davidson, 13k for Behn. So their 3 pt projected GOP win will rely heavily on the accuracy of that estimate (which is a tough thing to estimate, btw!). It could break either way, so I'll keep watching the Nashville election site.
December 3, 2025 at 1:49 AM
NYT projects about 17k more votes to be counted in Davidson, 13k for Behn. So their 3 pt projected GOP win will rely heavily on the accuracy of that estimate (which is a tough thing to estimate, btw!). It could break either way, so I'll keep watching the Nashville election site.
NYT is projecting a 3pt GOP win here, but it is impossible to have a lot of faith in any projection at this point without any election day votes in yet. The big question is how big the Nashville Eday vote was.
December 3, 2025 at 1:41 AM
NYT is projecting a 3pt GOP win here, but it is impossible to have a lot of faith in any projection at this point without any election day votes in yet. The big question is how big the Nashville Eday vote was.