Paul Julian
@swampthingpaul.bsky.social
#Aquatic & #wetland #ecologist, #biogeochemist & #limnologist but you will always find me in the #garden. #rstats number crunching fool. The trails call to me. #Plantbased #vegan muscle head at heart. Webpage and blog https://swampthingecology.org/
Pinned
A quick introduction.
Professionally, I wear multiple hats. I'm an aquatic #biogeochemist that focuses on #nutrient cycling in aquatic ecosystems. I also dive into #hydrology to understand how water moves. I enjoy statistics and love #rstats (sometimes😉)
Professionally, I wear multiple hats. I'm an aquatic #biogeochemist that focuses on #nutrient cycling in aquatic ecosystems. I also dive into #hydrology to understand how water moves. I enjoy statistics and love #rstats (sometimes😉)
Reposted by Paul Julian
The USDA postdoc fellowship is back! If you're interested in studying eutrophication issues in working lands, let's write a proposal together. Check my lab webpage for how to get in touch (ecostoich.weebly.com/join.html).
January 22, 2026 at 9:59 PM
The USDA postdoc fellowship is back! If you're interested in studying eutrophication issues in working lands, let's write a proposal together. Check my lab webpage for how to get in touch (ecostoich.weebly.com/join.html).
I love it when reviewers think they know what they are talking about to refute the paper but it turns out they dont ... don't challenage me on a statistical approach unless you made the method. If it made it into the paper, there was a lot of effort involved. Don't hate the GAM, hate the player. ;)
January 20, 2026 at 3:05 PM
I love it when reviewers think they know what they are talking about to refute the paper but it turns out they dont ... don't challenage me on a statistical approach unless you made the method. If it made it into the paper, there was a lot of effort involved. Don't hate the GAM, hate the player. ;)
Last year I took part in an Evidence Synthesis Training Programme. As part of this training participants conducted a Rapid Evidence Assessment and drafted a policy brief.
Here is a preprint of our work soon to be submitted for peer review.
www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-8...
Here is a preprint of our work soon to be submitted for peer review.
www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-8...
A rapid evidence assessment on the impact of climate change on peatland carbon dynamics in South America
Peatlands are vitally important ecosystems characterized by a diversity of services spanning species, ecosystem, landscape, and global scales. Peatlands store globally significant amounts of carbon, m...
www.researchsquare.com
January 17, 2026 at 1:54 AM
Last year I took part in an Evidence Synthesis Training Programme. As part of this training participants conducted a Rapid Evidence Assessment and drafted a policy brief.
Here is a preprint of our work soon to be submitted for peer review.
www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-8...
Here is a preprint of our work soon to be submitted for peer review.
www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-8...
... somehow magically I got a pre-print rejected from a pre-print server because their screeners have determined that the manuscript type or its content is not suitable for posting as a preprint despite checking all the boxes and is required under the program we are working with. 🤦♂️
January 14, 2026 at 4:54 PM
... somehow magically I got a pre-print rejected from a pre-print server because their screeners have determined that the manuscript type or its content is not suitable for posting as a preprint despite checking all the boxes and is required under the program we are working with. 🤦♂️
... and in the 11th hour reviewer #3 asks to include specific authors (but not references) in a manuscript to justify extending the discussion section of an already long paper. If these papers didn't make into the manuscript, you'd think there would be a reason. 😡
January 13, 2026 at 1:53 PM
... and in the 11th hour reviewer #3 asks to include specific authors (but not references) in a manuscript to justify extending the discussion section of an already long paper. If these papers didn't make into the manuscript, you'd think there would be a reason. 😡
#rstats #trend #waterquality friends
Quick question, I'm looking at changes in long-term trends in water quality (~4+ decades) using Kendall and Thiel-Sen (as 1 part). Thinking about doing a bootstrapped Thiel-Sen slope to look at variability... is it overkill?
Quick question, I'm looking at changes in long-term trends in water quality (~4+ decades) using Kendall and Thiel-Sen (as 1 part). Thinking about doing a bootstrapped Thiel-Sen slope to look at variability... is it overkill?
January 12, 2026 at 8:16 PM
#rstats #trend #waterquality friends
Quick question, I'm looking at changes in long-term trends in water quality (~4+ decades) using Kendall and Thiel-Sen (as 1 part). Thinking about doing a bootstrapped Thiel-Sen slope to look at variability... is it overkill?
Quick question, I'm looking at changes in long-term trends in water quality (~4+ decades) using Kendall and Thiel-Sen (as 1 part). Thinking about doing a bootstrapped Thiel-Sen slope to look at variability... is it overkill?
A small moment of zen from the seasonal stream in our woodland.
January 8, 2026 at 4:18 PM
A small moment of zen from the seasonal stream in our woodland.
Only thing holding me together right now is anxiety, caffeine, my daily escape with @classicfm.com and binging old episodes of Restoration Man with @georgeclarke.bsky.social on YouTube.
January 8, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Only thing holding me together right now is anxiety, caffeine, my daily escape with @classicfm.com and binging old episodes of Restoration Man with @georgeclarke.bsky.social on YouTube.
Reposted by Paul Julian
I'm hiring a postdoc to work with myself, Dr Jim Lyons and the entire NOAA Firebird team on the adaptive management part of our larger project focused on the impacts of prescribed fire on Gulf Coast wetlands
Accepting applications until Feb 15th
blogs.illinois.edu/view/7426/19...
Accepting applications until Feb 15th
blogs.illinois.edu/view/7426/19...
Postdoctoral Research Associate - NOAA Firebird - Illinois Natural History Survey/PRI - Application Deadline: February 15, 2026
blogs.illinois.edu
January 6, 2026 at 1:29 PM
I'm hiring a postdoc to work with myself, Dr Jim Lyons and the entire NOAA Firebird team on the adaptive management part of our larger project focused on the impacts of prescribed fire on Gulf Coast wetlands
Accepting applications until Feb 15th
blogs.illinois.edu/view/7426/19...
Accepting applications until Feb 15th
blogs.illinois.edu/view/7426/19...
Recently, I've been using ChatGPT to help me write better R code. At first I was hesitant to use any AI/LLM but so far its been a great tool to remove redundancy or choke points in my code.
January 5, 2026 at 3:46 PM
Recently, I've been using ChatGPT to help me write better R code. At first I was hesitant to use any AI/LLM but so far its been a great tool to remove redundancy or choke points in my code.
@bes-peatlandsgroup.bsky.social
Anyone planning on participating in the Defra peatland evidence review?
www.iucn-uk-peatlandprogramme.org/get-involved...
Anyone planning on participating in the Defra peatland evidence review?
www.iucn-uk-peatlandprogramme.org/get-involved...
Defra Commissioned Peatland Evidence Review | IUCN UK Peatland Programme
Information on the Defra Commissioned Peatland Evidence Review, contracted to the IUCN UK Peatland Programme from November 2025 - March 2027.
www.iucn-uk-peatlandprogramme.org
December 29, 2025 at 1:42 AM
@bes-peatlandsgroup.bsky.social
Anyone planning on participating in the Defra peatland evidence review?
www.iucn-uk-peatlandprogramme.org/get-involved...
Anyone planning on participating in the Defra peatland evidence review?
www.iucn-uk-peatlandprogramme.org/get-involved...
I don't think I'm anything special by any means (i.e. my 💩 does stink 😜😂 ), but I do feel like I should be doing more ... making more of a positive impact, being involved with more things, doing more things (professionally and personally). But not in a FOMO way if that makes sense.
December 17, 2025 at 12:49 PM
I don't think I'm anything special by any means (i.e. my 💩 does stink 😜😂 ), but I do feel like I should be doing more ... making more of a positive impact, being involved with more things, doing more things (professionally and personally). But not in a FOMO way if that makes sense.
1) With the plethora of data and more being collected with longer-term studies/analyses being developed, sampling frequency and data inventories are becoming more and more important to understand not only how the system has changed but how the monitoring has changed.
November 12, 2025 at 2:56 PM
1) With the plethora of data and more being collected with longer-term studies/analyses being developed, sampling frequency and data inventories are becoming more and more important to understand not only how the system has changed but how the monitoring has changed.
Have you ever looked at a complex model and wondered what variables explain the most variance, an idea from colleagues who live in the multiple linear regression world. Not sure if I did it right for GAMs, so I posted the question with reproducible code ...
stats.stackexchange.com/questions/67...
stats.stackexchange.com/questions/67...
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
lnkd.in
October 31, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Have you ever looked at a complex model and wondered what variables explain the most variance, an idea from colleagues who live in the multiple linear regression world. Not sure if I did it right for GAMs, so I posted the question with reproducible code ...
stats.stackexchange.com/questions/67...
stats.stackexchange.com/questions/67...
It's like if you mentor somebody and invest time you benefit ... Strange 🤔
Yes, that was sarcasm. Accepting a student (as a graduate student) is an investment in the future and your legacy. It should be taken seriously.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Yes, that was sarcasm. Accepting a student (as a graduate student) is an investment in the future and your legacy. It should be taken seriously.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
What makes PhD students happy? Good supervision
Supervisors who invest in positive mentoring relationships with their PhD candidates also reap the benefits for their own research.
www.nature.com
October 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
It's like if you mentor somebody and invest time you benefit ... Strange 🤔
Yes, that was sarcasm. Accepting a student (as a graduate student) is an investment in the future and your legacy. It should be taken seriously.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Yes, that was sarcasm. Accepting a student (as a graduate student) is an investment in the future and your legacy. It should be taken seriously.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
I've been listening to a lot of @classicfm.com lately, it makes me feel like I'm listening to a little box radio, sitting next to a fireplace in a comfy chair, sipping tea in some cottage in the Cotswolds or Lakes District.
... close, just 5000 km away. But still got the fireplace and comfy chair
... close, just 5000 km away. But still got the fireplace and comfy chair
October 22, 2025 at 7:56 PM
I've been listening to a lot of @classicfm.com lately, it makes me feel like I'm listening to a little box radio, sitting next to a fireplace in a comfy chair, sipping tea in some cottage in the Cotswolds or Lakes District.
... close, just 5000 km away. But still got the fireplace and comfy chair
... close, just 5000 km away. But still got the fireplace and comfy chair
Probably the last good weekend to catch the autumn colors, albeit muted due to the drought. As expected, there was a water/limnological based theme 😉. We visited ESF Pond 1 in Heiberg Memorial Forest, Clark Reservation State Park, Chittenango Falls State Park, and Nelson Swamp unique area (no pic).
October 20, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Probably the last good weekend to catch the autumn colors, albeit muted due to the drought. As expected, there was a water/limnological based theme 😉. We visited ESF Pond 1 in Heiberg Memorial Forest, Clark Reservation State Park, Chittenango Falls State Park, and Nelson Swamp unique area (no pic).
Looking at the titles of manuscripts from the past is fun ... it seems much more relaxed. Like this one "Sveriges geologiska undersöknings torvinventering och några av dess hittills vunna resultat." roughly translated to "Sweden's peatlands geological survey and some results gained so far."
October 10, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Looking at the titles of manuscripts from the past is fun ... it seems much more relaxed. Like this one "Sveriges geologiska undersöknings torvinventering och några av dess hittills vunna resultat." roughly translated to "Sweden's peatlands geological survey and some results gained so far."
I was reading a paper today about stable states ... and they have ASS throughout the paper as an acronym for Alternative Stable States. In the associated code, they have a data.frame where they combined two very large datasets and called it bigass ... couldn't stop laughing whilst reading the paper.
a man in a suit and tie is smiling with his eyes closed
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is smiling with his eyes closed
media.tenor.com
October 9, 2025 at 6:10 PM
I was reading a paper today about stable states ... and they have ASS throughout the paper as an acronym for Alternative Stable States. In the associated code, they have a data.frame where they combined two very large datasets and called it bigass ... couldn't stop laughing whilst reading the paper.
While digging through some code from a manuscript I recently read ... yes, that rabbit hole I came across this line and I think I just found my new favorite set.seed(...) 🤣
set.seed(i+42) # Don’t Panic. “What is the meaning of life, the universe, and everything?”
#Rstats
set.seed(i+42) # Don’t Panic. “What is the meaning of life, the universe, and everything?”
#Rstats
October 9, 2025 at 1:41 PM
While digging through some code from a manuscript I recently read ... yes, that rabbit hole I came across this line and I think I just found my new favorite set.seed(...) 🤣
set.seed(i+42) # Don’t Panic. “What is the meaning of life, the universe, and everything?”
#Rstats
set.seed(i+42) # Don’t Panic. “What is the meaning of life, the universe, and everything?”
#Rstats
While I understand the intent of this message, it also doesn't negate the need for A) the user to read and understand the script and B) the developer to write functional code.
My personal code usually has this in it to help my OCD brain function. But if I share the code I remove this line.
My personal code usually has this in it to help my OCD brain function. But if I share the code I remove this line.
2017 was when Jenny discussed project-oriented workflows at the University of Auckland!
Love this slide 🤣
Learn about the talk here: www.tidyverse.org/blog/2017/12...
Love this slide 🤣
Learn about the talk here: www.tidyverse.org/blog/2017/12...
September 25, 2025 at 12:15 AM
While I understand the intent of this message, it also doesn't negate the need for A) the user to read and understand the script and B) the developer to write functional code.
My personal code usually has this in it to help my OCD brain function. But if I share the code I remove this line.
My personal code usually has this in it to help my OCD brain function. But if I share the code I remove this line.
Checked out Lake #George for #WorldLakeDay 🌊 Just 60 mi from Lake #Champlain, but water levels tell a different story: while trending down its not as drastic as Champlain 📉
August 28, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Checked out Lake #George for #WorldLakeDay 🌊 Just 60 mi from Lake #Champlain, but water levels tell a different story: while trending down its not as drastic as Champlain 📉
Following up on Lake Champlain levels: USGS data show major tributaries (Saranac, Ausable, Boquet, Lamoille, Winooski, Otter) are at record-low summer flows. Most <5th percentile. Drought or shifting climate? 🌦️🌊 #fedopendata
August 27, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Following up on Lake Champlain levels: USGS data show major tributaries (Saranac, Ausable, Boquet, Lamoille, Winooski, Otter) are at record-low summer flows. Most <5th percentile. Drought or shifting climate? 🌦️🌊 #fedopendata
Lake Champlain is at its lowest for this time of year in over 50 years, much earlier than it should be.
To visualize this, I created a calendar plot that bins 50 years of lake stage data into quantiles.
#OpenScience #RStats #DataVisualization
To visualize this, I created a calendar plot that bins 50 years of lake stage data into quantiles.
#OpenScience #RStats #DataVisualization
August 25, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Lake Champlain is at its lowest for this time of year in over 50 years, much earlier than it should be.
To visualize this, I created a calendar plot that bins 50 years of lake stage data into quantiles.
#OpenScience #RStats #DataVisualization
To visualize this, I created a calendar plot that bins 50 years of lake stage data into quantiles.
#OpenScience #RStats #DataVisualization
Every summer, algae blooms erupt across Florida’s largest lake, choking the ecosystem and threatening our economy.
We collaborated with the National Park Service using decades of ecosystem monitoring data to develop a predictive algae model.
www.evergladesfoundation.org/post/bloom-w...
We collaborated with the National Park Service using decades of ecosystem monitoring data to develop a predictive algae model.
www.evergladesfoundation.org/post/bloom-w...
Bloom Watch: Forecasting Trouble in Lake Okeechobee with New Model
Our science team's new study in collaboration with the National Park Service explores how we can better predict algae blooms before they begin.
www.evergladesfoundation.org
August 17, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Every summer, algae blooms erupt across Florida’s largest lake, choking the ecosystem and threatening our economy.
We collaborated with the National Park Service using decades of ecosystem monitoring data to develop a predictive algae model.
www.evergladesfoundation.org/post/bloom-w...
We collaborated with the National Park Service using decades of ecosystem monitoring data to develop a predictive algae model.
www.evergladesfoundation.org/post/bloom-w...