Sveta Yefimenko
@svetayefimenko.bsky.social
Political junkie & policy wonk. Research director at Massachusetts House of Representatives. Writing about Russia's war narratives & memory politics. PhD from Uni of Exeter
"Империя - страна для дураков" -Бродский
"Империя - страна для дураков" -Бродский
Pinned
Why Moscow Won’t Play Ball on a Ceasefire—Yet - FPIF
War provides Putin with political advantages, and he wants more leverage.
fpif.org
New analysis from me for Foreign Policy in Focus about Russia's ceasefire calculations & what's behind the delaying tactics
fpif.org/why-moscow-w...
fpif.org/why-moscow-w...
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
Monday morning re-up: Yes, there is a threat from Russia. But mischaracterising it and, more to the point, presenting every potential setback as existential for NATO/the West risks actually inflaming the problem and encouraging Putin to push harder
In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?
Are we under threat? Maybe that’s up to us. Does the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Are we under threat? Maybe that’s up to us. Does the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe? - In Moscow's Shadows
MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala'...
www.buzzsprout.com
September 22, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Monday morning re-up: Yes, there is a threat from Russia. But mischaracterising it and, more to the point, presenting every potential setback as existential for NATO/the West risks actually inflaming the problem and encouraging Putin to push harder
New book by @emmamashford.bsky.social just arrived in the mail. Looking forward to Ashford's argument for a 'realist internationalism' that avoids both strategic overreach & ceding ground to rivals like China.
emmamashford.substack.com/p/first-amon...
emmamashford.substack.com/p/first-amon...
First Among Equals
U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World
emmamashford.substack.com
September 19, 2025 at 3:46 PM
New book by @emmamashford.bsky.social just arrived in the mail. Looking forward to Ashford's argument for a 'realist internationalism' that avoids both strategic overreach & ceding ground to rivals like China.
emmamashford.substack.com/p/first-amon...
emmamashford.substack.com/p/first-amon...
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
Europe will never be taken seriously in security circles until it has a scary animal. American eagle, Russian bear, Chinese dragon, Indian tiger. I back the gryphon, traditionally valid and currently unclaimed
September 18, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Europe will never be taken seriously in security circles until it has a scary animal. American eagle, Russian bear, Chinese dragon, Indian tiger. I back the gryphon, traditionally valid and currently unclaimed
In one hour: a discussion re: the future of US foreign policy in a rapidly changing world
www.stimson.org/event/new-vi...
www.stimson.org/event/new-vi...
New Visions for Grand Strategy • Stimson Center
It’s a time of change in U.S. foreign policy. Join four authors of the New Visions in Grand Strategy project as they discuss where America should go from here.
www.stimson.org
September 17, 2025 at 6:41 PM
In one hour: a discussion re: the future of US foreign policy in a rapidly changing world
www.stimson.org/event/new-vi...
www.stimson.org/event/new-vi...
"In international relations, nothing is worse than offering guarantees that are not trusted."
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work? - In Moscow's Shadows
Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically ready." I suspect this may be a stretch, but it is worth ...
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com
September 16, 2025 at 9:47 PM
"In international relations, nothing is worse than offering guarantees that are not trusted."
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
Shift to regionalization follows the #fracturedglobalization trend and what Arta Moeini has been researching ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
#fracturedglobalization | Nikolas Gvosdev
This follows trends we've been observing about #fracturedglobalization and what Arta Moeini, Ph.D. has been researching about the rise of regions with the global system not imposing a single standard ...
www.linkedin.com
September 13, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Shift to regionalization follows the #fracturedglobalization trend and what Arta Moeini has been researching ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
What should we make of Xi's great show? open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I draw on my new FP piece to spell out additional thoughts on where we are post-Tianjin and Beijing.
What should we make of Xi's great show?
A reflection on the SCO summit in Tianjin and the parade in Beijing
open.substack.com
September 3, 2025 at 7:53 PM
What should we make of Xi's great show? open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I draw on my new FP piece to spell out additional thoughts on where we are post-Tianjin and Beijing.
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
don’t let the pictures of xi jinping flanked by vladimir putin and kim jong un fool you: he’s not leading a new global order anytime soon.
but he certainly sees a leadership void and is ready to exploit it.
but he certainly sees a leadership void and is ready to exploit it.
What Actually Mattered This Week: Xi and Friends’ Beijing Reunion
🔔 Want to stay updated on global politics every weekday? Subscribe to GZERO Daily to get the news delivered straight to your inbox. WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERED THIS WEEK China's Xi hosts Putin, Kim for Bei...
www.linkedin.com
September 5, 2025 at 3:56 PM
don’t let the pictures of xi jinping flanked by vladimir putin and kim jong un fool you: he’s not leading a new global order anytime soon.
but he certainly sees a leadership void and is ready to exploit it.
but he certainly sees a leadership void and is ready to exploit it.
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
“Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork among MAGA activists…We find [they] are not simply voters responding to policy preferences or culture-war appeals but are also participants in a social movement organized around a shared perception of lost honor, declining esteem, and institutional disrespect.”
The Symbolic Politics of Status in the MAGA Movement | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
The Symbolic Politics of Status in the MAGA Movement
www.cambridge.org
September 5, 2025 at 3:05 PM
“Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork among MAGA activists…We find [they] are not simply voters responding to policy preferences or culture-war appeals but are also participants in a social movement organized around a shared perception of lost honor, declining esteem, and institutional disrespect.”
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
Counterproductive to divine grace, perhaps, but not international relations.
September 4, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Counterproductive to divine grace, perhaps, but not international relations.
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
most americans don’t think war in ukraine will be resolved anytime soon
(sadly, including me)
(sadly, including me)
August 29, 2025 at 7:15 PM
most americans don’t think war in ukraine will be resolved anytime soon
(sadly, including me)
(sadly, including me)
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
Why has Putin gone after the British Council in Kyiv?
To explain, not to excuse, here's my take for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog of what I presume was a deliberate targeting
www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...
To explain, not to excuse, here's my take for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog of what I presume was a deliberate targeting
www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...
Why has Putin gone after the British Council in Kyiv?
Is Moscow targeting European institutions in Kyiv in the hope of ‘sabotaging peace’ as Keir Starmer has claimed? Putin probably thinks he’s actually doing the opposite. Last night saw another massive ...
www.spectator.co.uk
August 28, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Why has Putin gone after the British Council in Kyiv?
To explain, not to excuse, here's my take for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog of what I presume was a deliberate targeting
www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...
To explain, not to excuse, here's my take for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog of what I presume was a deliberate targeting
www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
True for bluesky, too
August 25, 2025 at 1:00 PM
True for bluesky, too
"Russia’s approach to the war is predicated on the belief that it can win (or at least gain more than currently on offer) by continuing to wage war. It further judges that the costs to itself will be acceptable"
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Beyond the Ukraine Summits: Five Realities after Three Years of War | International Crisis Group
As the dust settles on two whirlwind summits, it is clear only that diplomacy aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine must meet a higher bar. Crisis Group experts offer observations about five realiti...
www.crisisgroup.org
August 22, 2025 at 10:25 PM
"Russia’s approach to the war is predicated on the belief that it can win (or at least gain more than currently on offer) by continuing to wage war. It further judges that the costs to itself will be acceptable"
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
Because Russia isn't interested in a ceasefire, esp not in exchange for a territory "swap" because it isn't fighting for territory, which the current admin doesn't seem to understand
August 22, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Because Russia isn't interested in a ceasefire, esp not in exchange for a territory "swap" because it isn't fighting for territory, which the current admin doesn't seem to understand
"Although most Western politicians and pundits are still loath to admit it, the taproot of the problem is a fundamental asymmetry of motivation between Russia and the West, an asymmetry arising from each side’s perceptions of threat and definitions of vital interests."
When lightweights like Trump, Rubio, and amateur diplomat Steve Witkoff go up against the likes of Putin or Lavrov, you can expect the latter side to pick U.S. pockets cleanly, argues columnist @stephenwalt.bsky.social.
Trump Has No Idea How to Do Diplomacy
Even when he’s partly right, he’s wrong.
foreignpolicy.com
August 21, 2025 at 12:50 PM
"Although most Western politicians and pundits are still loath to admit it, the taproot of the problem is a fundamental asymmetry of motivation between Russia and the West, an asymmetry arising from each side’s perceptions of threat and definitions of vital interests."
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
I have a piece in today's Spectator that looks at Putin's alleged acceptance of "security guarantees" for Ukraine: www.spectator.co.uk/article/puti.... I argue that Putin did not in fact make any concessions.
Putin hasn’t made any real concessions yet
After the jaw-dropping spectacle of the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, there was another full day of theatre on Monday as Trump hosted European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White Hou...
www.spectator.co.uk
August 20, 2025 at 11:55 AM
I have a piece in today's Spectator that looks at Putin's alleged acceptance of "security guarantees" for Ukraine: www.spectator.co.uk/article/puti.... I argue that Putin did not in fact make any concessions.
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
With reports that U.S. and Russia discussed what security guarantees to Ukraine might look like, my guesses as to what might be on the table for discussion. 1) U.S./NATO security commitments are to defend territory actually left under the control of the Kyiv government, ... 1/
August 17, 2025 at 6:12 PM
With reports that U.S. and Russia discussed what security guarantees to Ukraine might look like, my guesses as to what might be on the table for discussion. 1) U.S./NATO security commitments are to defend territory actually left under the control of the Kyiv government, ... 1/
Making Mackinder matter again: Hal Brands on the struggle for Eurasia, the 'strategic center of the world'
youtu.be/vkchOjhRv_M?...
youtu.be/vkchOjhRv_M?...
Current Strategy Forum 2025 - Dr. Hal Brands Keynote Address
YouTube video by U.S. Naval War College
youtu.be
July 9, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Making Mackinder matter again: Hal Brands on the struggle for Eurasia, the 'strategic center of the world'
youtu.be/vkchOjhRv_M?...
youtu.be/vkchOjhRv_M?...
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
“But before American officials pat themselves on the back or take a victory lap, they must understand the downsides of their success. Growing European power means the era of comfortable U.S. leadership is over.”
www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/bewar...
www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/bewar...
Beware the Europe You Wish For
The downsides and dangers of allied independence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 27, 2025 at 5:20 PM
“But before American officials pat themselves on the back or take a victory lap, they must understand the downsides of their success. Growing European power means the era of comfortable U.S. leadership is over.”
www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/bewar...
www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/bewar...
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
Putin spies an opportunity in Trump’s attack on Iran
Thoughts for @SpecCoffeeHouse on the downsides and upsides for Moscow.
www.spectator.co.uk/article/puti...
Thoughts for @SpecCoffeeHouse on the downsides and upsides for Moscow.
www.spectator.co.uk/article/puti...
Putin spies an opportunity in Trump's attack on Iran
The truth is that there is very little Moscow can do beyond gesture politics, especially given that it was surprised by Trump's decision.
www.spectator.co.uk
June 23, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Putin spies an opportunity in Trump’s attack on Iran
Thoughts for @SpecCoffeeHouse on the downsides and upsides for Moscow.
www.spectator.co.uk/article/puti...
Thoughts for @SpecCoffeeHouse on the downsides and upsides for Moscow.
www.spectator.co.uk/article/puti...
Reposted by Sveta Yefimenko
This point from Ryan Fedasiuk is critical, and builds on observations made at #CIWAG2025 about the maritime order: strategic competition is about who will "define the organizational logic of the future: the frameworks through which people live, work, believe, and obey." 1/
What Are the United States and China Competing For?
The Dignity of the Individual, and the American Idea
choosingvictory.substack.com
June 26, 2025 at 12:36 AM
This point from Ryan Fedasiuk is critical, and builds on observations made at #CIWAG2025 about the maritime order: strategic competition is about who will "define the organizational logic of the future: the frameworks through which people live, work, believe, and obey." 1/