Ahh, autumn in southern New England. 80 on Monday. Frost on Friday. Nor’easter on Sunday night just for good measure.

ICYMI, the eye-popper in today's PPI: a 39% rise in wholesale fresh vegetable prices.

It's the largest month-on-month increase ever recorded in the summer (data to 1947), and one of the ten largest ever, regardless of season.

With the estimable @alexjamesfitz.com

www.axios.com/2025/08/14/i...

Two things are true about July CPI inflation: (i) tariff passthrough into key goods categories slowed; (ii) core goods inflation (top left, purple) is 50 bps above where it normally is in July (top left, black). So even with slower passthrough, the hit to inflation from tariffs is very substantial.

Markets are once again shrugging their shoulders at the latest CPI print. But that's wrong. The middle of the year is when post-COVID residual seasonality has been giving us low inflation. Not so this year. July 2025 core CPI is 0.32% m/m versus 0.19% in July 2024 and 0.22% in July 2023...

I saw a clip today of Trump’s economic adviser saying they need someone who can better explain jobs revisions. Big revisions happen. And there are loads of reasons why. I could explain it to him if anyone wants to connect us. Or he can just read what I wrote…14 years ago! www.wsj.com/articles/SB1...

There's a presumption in some circles that leaning on the Fed to cut rates will bring down mortgage rates. Not obvious at all. Mortgage rates haven't responded to the Fed's recent cuts. It'd be much more effective to reign in fiscal deficits. That'll bring down long rates much more effectively...

Tough to backhand with the slash he took.

Wait, we don’t care about their markets? Wasn’t that one of the main arguments for (waves hands wildly) all of this?

Unreal to be here to watch it in person!

UBS Arena is a @wshcapitals.bsky.social home game today. 90% Caps fan easy!

Is it me or among social media platforms isn’t Facebook the one that has been the most dangerous and destructive to Americans and American democracy the past 7 or 8 years? Followed by Twitter/X? Shouldn’t Congress see that as more a threat than others?

Anyone have any good reading on why the Fed should drop its dual mandate and just focus on inflation? Something I’ve been thinking about for three or so years now. Interested to see sound points on either side!

28 to tie/29 to break the record. I’ve got tickets 60 games from now (April 6 at NYI). Am I on a collision course with witnessing the record? That would be pretty cool.

Making the move here from another platform. Who should I be following? What do I need to know about this place?