parker fleming
@statsowar.bsky.social
football | economics | data science
🏈📊New Year's Eve Bowls Advanced Stats Previews
RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT
SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE
CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH
LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN
cfb-graphs.com
RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT
SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE
CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH
LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN
cfb-graphs.com
December 31, 2025 at 2:43 PM
🏈📊New Year's Eve Bowls Advanced Stats Previews
RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT
SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE
CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH
LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN
cfb-graphs.com
RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT
SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE
CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH
LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN
cfb-graphs.com
a reminder that rushing overview cards are live on cfb-graphs.com
December 29, 2025 at 6:24 PM
a reminder that rushing overview cards are live on cfb-graphs.com
Reposted by parker fleming
Tech’s defense against Oregon’s offense is gonna be some absolute heavyweight stuff. Can’t wait.
December 24, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Tech’s defense against Oregon’s offense is gonna be some absolute heavyweight stuff. Can’t wait.
1000 yard rushers (regular season only) in FBS:
2025: 31 (4 QBs)
2024: 39 (5 QBs)
2023: 39 (2 QBs)
2022: 38 (1 QBs)
2021: 46 (2 QBs)
2025: 31 (4 QBs)
2024: 39 (5 QBs)
2023: 39 (2 QBs)
2022: 38 (1 QBs)
2021: 46 (2 QBs)
December 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
1000 yard rushers (regular season only) in FBS:
2025: 31 (4 QBs)
2024: 39 (5 QBs)
2023: 39 (2 QBs)
2022: 38 (1 QBs)
2021: 46 (2 QBs)
2025: 31 (4 QBs)
2024: 39 (5 QBs)
2023: 39 (2 QBs)
2022: 38 (1 QBs)
2021: 46 (2 QBs)
1000 yard receivers (regular season only) in FBS:
2025: 11
2024: 21
2023: 24
2022: 23
2021: 30
2025: 11
2024: 21
2023: 24
2022: 23
2021: 30
December 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
1000 yard receivers (regular season only) in FBS:
2025: 11
2024: 21
2023: 24
2022: 23
2021: 30
2025: 11
2024: 21
2023: 24
2022: 23
2021: 30
December 23, 2025 at 6:33 PM
"Wins Above What An Avg Team Would Be Expected to Have Against Your Schedule" v1
1 IND +7.21
2 UGA +6.75
3 OHST +6.31
4 TAMU +6.12
5 BYU +5.64
6 OKLA +5.55
7 ORE +5.50
8 BAMA +5.37
9 TT +5.31
10 OM +5.29
11 ND +4.79
12 VAN +4.62
13 MIA +4.29
14 UTA +4.16
15 MICH +4.16
16 TUL +4.05
...
19 JMU +3.34
1 IND +7.21
2 UGA +6.75
3 OHST +6.31
4 TAMU +6.12
5 BYU +5.64
6 OKLA +5.55
7 ORE +5.50
8 BAMA +5.37
9 TT +5.31
10 OM +5.29
11 ND +4.79
12 VAN +4.62
13 MIA +4.29
14 UTA +4.16
15 MICH +4.16
16 TUL +4.05
...
19 JMU +3.34
December 9, 2025 at 11:44 PM
"Wins Above What An Avg Team Would Be Expected to Have Against Your Schedule" v1
1 IND +7.21
2 UGA +6.75
3 OHST +6.31
4 TAMU +6.12
5 BYU +5.64
6 OKLA +5.55
7 ORE +5.50
8 BAMA +5.37
9 TT +5.31
10 OM +5.29
11 ND +4.79
12 VAN +4.62
13 MIA +4.29
14 UTA +4.16
15 MICH +4.16
16 TUL +4.05
...
19 JMU +3.34
1 IND +7.21
2 UGA +6.75
3 OHST +6.31
4 TAMU +6.12
5 BYU +5.64
6 OKLA +5.55
7 ORE +5.50
8 BAMA +5.37
9 TT +5.31
10 OM +5.29
11 ND +4.79
12 VAN +4.62
13 MIA +4.29
14 UTA +4.16
15 MICH +4.16
16 TUL +4.05
...
19 JMU +3.34
📊🏈 College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best
December 8, 2025 at 7:13 PM
📊🏈 College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
December 1, 2025 at 2:47 PM
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Reposted by parker fleming
2. @espnbillc.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social on strength of schedule
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
Numbers & Words: How to Talk about Strength of Schedule with Bill Connelly and Parker Fleming
Podcast Episode · Phantom Island · 10/31/2025 · 50m
podcasts.apple.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:36 PM
2. @espnbillc.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social on strength of schedule
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
Updated EPA by Quarter Chaos Table:
November 26, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Updated EPA by Quarter Chaos Table:
Was curious about which FBS offenses thrived in normal vs non-normal situations.
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
November 25, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Was curious about which FBS offenses thrived in normal vs non-normal situations.
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact):
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
November 25, 2025 at 7:02 PM
One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact):
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
November 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
everything i post here is something i posted on X/twitter that i remembered to post over here too
Is this graph post elsewhere online? Looking for week 12 if available
November 18, 2025 at 7:23 PM
everything i post here is something i posted on X/twitter that i remembered to post over here too
EPA by Quarter Chaos Table
November 17, 2025 at 4:20 PM
EPA by Quarter Chaos Table
🏈📊WEEK 12 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA
IOWA AT USC
TEXAS AT GEORGIA
NOTRE DAME AT PITT
OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA
IOWA AT USC
TEXAS AT GEORGIA
NOTRE DAME AT PITT
November 10, 2025 at 3:53 PM
🏈📊WEEK 12 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA
IOWA AT USC
TEXAS AT GEORGIA
NOTRE DAME AT PITT
OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA
IOWA AT USC
TEXAS AT GEORGIA
NOTRE DAME AT PITT
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
November 10, 2025 at 3:53 PM
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
🏈📊DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11
November 10, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🏈📊DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11
🏈📊WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
Kent State @ Ball State
NIU @ Toledo
Kent State @ Ball State
NIU @ Toledo
November 5, 2025 at 4:05 PM
🏈📊WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
Kent State @ Ball State
NIU @ Toledo
Kent State @ Ball State
NIU @ Toledo