Silvia Merler
@smerler.bsky.social
Head of Policy Research - Algebris Investments
Non-Resident Fellow - Bruegel Think Tank
Adjunct Lecturer - Johns Hopkins SAIS
Views obviously my own
Non-Resident Fellow - Bruegel Think Tank
Adjunct Lecturer - Johns Hopkins SAIS
Views obviously my own
Pinned
Silvia Merler
@smerler.bsky.social
· Apr 11
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
www.bruegel.org
It may seem counterintuitive to issue more debt during a crisis. But in a world where US economic policy is unpredictable, safe asset diversification suddenly has value. And the EU’s best response to US tariffs is to issue more debt.
My OpED at @bruegel.bsky.social
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
My OpED at @bruegel.bsky.social
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
The 10 year BTP-Bund spread is at its lowest since 2010 and Italy in 2024 went back to a primary surplus, as it consistently did for almost two decades before COVID (unlike France, who’s been overshooting its deficit forecasts for 30 years). Don’t cry wolf where there isn’t one, it’s irresponsible.
There's first signs of contagion from France to Italy and flight to safety into German Bunds. Italy is the Euro zone Achilles heel. Without it, ECB could let French yields rise, helping France get its budget under control. But that's not possible with Italy always teetering on the brink of crisis...
August 28, 2025 at 6:41 AM
The 10 year BTP-Bund spread is at its lowest since 2010 and Italy in 2024 went back to a primary surplus, as it consistently did for almost two decades before COVID (unlike France, who’s been overshooting its deficit forecasts for 30 years). Don’t cry wolf where there isn’t one, it’s irresponsible.
#Bruegel is republishing the classics and I’m super proud that this paper by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and myself made the cut. It took a lot of work on then-obscure central bank liquidity data, but it changed the way we look at capital flows within monetary union.
www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
Sudden stops in the euro area
Internal balance-of-payment crises should be taken as a strong signal of weakness and a wake-up call to reform euro area structures
www.bruegel.org
August 12, 2025 at 6:52 PM
#Bruegel is republishing the classics and I’m super proud that this paper by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and myself made the cut. It took a lot of work on then-obscure central bank liquidity data, but it changed the way we look at capital flows within monetary union.
www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
Thank you to Jon Hay for featuring my comments in this extensive article on the UK’s decision to scrap plans for a Green Taxonomy. Great insights also from the other people quoted in the piece!
www.globalcapital.com/article/2f2q...
www.globalcapital.com/article/2f2q...
UK scraps Taxonomy, stakes green reputation on credible transition
Transition plans and disclosure rules will be central to UK’s bid for sustainable finance leadership
www.globalcapital.com
July 22, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Thank you to Jon Hay for featuring my comments in this extensive article on the UK’s decision to scrap plans for a Green Taxonomy. Great insights also from the other people quoted in the piece!
www.globalcapital.com/article/2f2q...
www.globalcapital.com/article/2f2q...
My latest, on the recent notice by the European Commission on defence investment in the sustainable finance framework.
🪖 Can #defence #investment be sustainable? The European Commission thinks so
🔎 @smerler.bsky.social digs into the Commission's recent efforts to justify its efforts to incentivise greater defence investment.
♻️ Can there be such a thing as 'sustainable defence'?
🔗 buff.ly/GBeMML9
#EconSky
🔎 @smerler.bsky.social digs into the Commission's recent efforts to justify its efforts to incentivise greater defence investment.
♻️ Can there be such a thing as 'sustainable defence'?
🔗 buff.ly/GBeMML9
#EconSky
Can defence investment be sustainable? The European Commission thinks so
European Commission guidance on defence investment and sustainability could ease reputational concerns for investors
buff.ly
July 17, 2025 at 4:45 PM
My latest, on the recent notice by the European Commission on defence investment in the sustainable finance framework.
The international monetary system is changing before our eyes. Germany and Italy pressed to bring gold home from US; a survey of more than 70 global central banks showed more were thinking of storing their gold domestically amid concerns about ability to access it.
www.ft.com/content/e393...
www.ft.com/content/e393...
Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US
Trump’s attacks on the Fed and growing geopolitical risks reignite public debate about repatriating bullion
www.ft.com
June 23, 2025 at 6:52 AM
The international monetary system is changing before our eyes. Germany and Italy pressed to bring gold home from US; a survey of more than 70 global central banks showed more were thinking of storing their gold domestically amid concerns about ability to access it.
www.ft.com/content/e393...
www.ft.com/content/e393...
Great piece by @martinsandbu.ft.com in today’s FT. As I wrote back in April, the EU’s best response to Trump’s tariffs would be to issue more EU debt. My preference however is for ramping up genuine EU debt issuance, not settling for synthetic asset solutions.
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
www.bruegel.org
June 19, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Great piece by @martinsandbu.ft.com in today’s FT. As I wrote back in April, the EU’s best response to Trump’s tariffs would be to issue more EU debt. My preference however is for ramping up genuine EU debt issuance, not settling for synthetic asset solutions.
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
The return of volatility: the S&P 500 has gained or lost at least 1% in seven of the past 10 sessions, and April is poised to be the most-volatile calendar month since the Covid crash in 2020.
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Huge Stock Swings Are the New Normal for Frazzled Investors
April is poised to be the most-volatile calendar month since the Covid crash in 2020.
www.wsj.com
April 24, 2025 at 5:59 AM
The return of volatility: the S&P 500 has gained or lost at least 1% in seven of the past 10 sessions, and April is poised to be the most-volatile calendar month since the Covid crash in 2020.
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
ECB’s Guindos Says Euro May Become Alternative Reserve Currency ‘in Some Years’ - but that will require “additional integration” he says (and a step up in EU issuance, says I)
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
ECB’s Guindos Says Euro May Become Alternative Reserve Currency ‘in Some Years’
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the euro could become an alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency if Europe increases its integration efforts.
www.bloomberg.com
April 23, 2025 at 12:55 PM
ECB’s Guindos Says Euro May Become Alternative Reserve Currency ‘in Some Years’ - but that will require “additional integration” he says (and a step up in EU issuance, says I)
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Latest US inflation numbers surprised to the downside, but the University of Michigan survey points to 12-month inflation expectations at 6.7%, and above 4% for the next 5 years. Powell previously dismissed it as an outlier, but important to watch for role of the $.
www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...
www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...
US consumer sentiment, inflation expectations deteriorate sharply in April
U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions.
www.reuters.com
April 13, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Latest US inflation numbers surprised to the downside, but the University of Michigan survey points to 12-month inflation expectations at 6.7%, and above 4% for the next 5 years. Powell previously dismissed it as an outlier, but important to watch for role of the $.
www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...
www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...
It may seem counterintuitive to issue more debt during a crisis. But in a world where US economic policy is unpredictable, safe asset diversification suddenly has value. And the EU’s best response to US tariffs is to issue more debt.
My OpED at @bruegel.bsky.social
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
My OpED at @bruegel.bsky.social
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
www.bruegel.org
April 11, 2025 at 1:43 PM
It may seem counterintuitive to issue more debt during a crisis. But in a world where US economic policy is unpredictable, safe asset diversification suddenly has value. And the EU’s best response to US tariffs is to issue more debt.
My OpED at @bruegel.bsky.social
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
My OpED at @bruegel.bsky.social
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
Reposted by Silvia Merler
"The EU should thus move to fund the entire cost of its planned rearmament with EU debt, similarly to NGEU." @smerler.bsky.social on the global role of the euro in light of American chaos. www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
www.bruegel.org
April 11, 2025 at 11:51 AM
"The EU should thus move to fund the entire cost of its planned rearmament with EU debt, similarly to NGEU." @smerler.bsky.social on the global role of the euro in light of American chaos. www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
All eyes in the market are on China. So far, China is going for a strategy of being the adult in the room:
*US TARIFFS A HEGEMONIC MOVE, SELFISH: LIN
*US TARIFFS DEPRIVE GLOBAL SOUTH OF RIGHT TO DEVELOP, LIN SAYS
*NATIONS SHOULD OPPOSE PROTECTIONISM, LIN SAYS
*US TARIFFS A HEGEMONIC MOVE, SELFISH: LIN
*US TARIFFS DEPRIVE GLOBAL SOUTH OF RIGHT TO DEVELOP, LIN SAYS
*NATIONS SHOULD OPPOSE PROTECTIONISM, LIN SAYS
April 7, 2025 at 7:19 AM
All eyes in the market are on China. So far, China is going for a strategy of being the adult in the room:
*US TARIFFS A HEGEMONIC MOVE, SELFISH: LIN
*US TARIFFS DEPRIVE GLOBAL SOUTH OF RIGHT TO DEVELOP, LIN SAYS
*NATIONS SHOULD OPPOSE PROTECTIONISM, LIN SAYS
*US TARIFFS A HEGEMONIC MOVE, SELFISH: LIN
*US TARIFFS DEPRIVE GLOBAL SOUTH OF RIGHT TO DEVELOP, LIN SAYS
*NATIONS SHOULD OPPOSE PROTECTIONISM, LIN SAYS
Dollar down on a massive trade protectionist shock is something that will go in the macroeconomics handbooks for the next generations:
*EURO RISES MORE THAN 1% TO $1.0980, HIGHEST LEVEL IN SIX MONTHS
*EURO RISES MORE THAN 1% TO $1.0980, HIGHEST LEVEL IN SIX MONTHS
April 3, 2025 at 6:51 AM
Dollar down on a massive trade protectionist shock is something that will go in the macroeconomics handbooks for the next generations:
*EURO RISES MORE THAN 1% TO $1.0980, HIGHEST LEVEL IN SIX MONTHS
*EURO RISES MORE THAN 1% TO $1.0980, HIGHEST LEVEL IN SIX MONTHS
Ma tribune dans L’Opinion, sur les implications du paquet Omnibus pour la finance durable ⬇️
www.lopinion.fr/internationa...
www.lopinion.fr/internationa...
« Simplification ou dilution ? Les implications du paquet Omnibus pour la finance durable »
La simplification du reporting dans l’Union européenne entraînera une réduction de l’information disponible et introduira des distorsions sur le marché de la finance durable.
www.lopinion.fr
March 19, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Ma tribune dans L’Opinion, sur les implications du paquet Omnibus pour la finance durable ⬇️
www.lopinion.fr/internationa...
www.lopinion.fr/internationa...
🔎 I’ve been asked many times whether EU sustainable finance rules are holding back EU defence financing. The short answer is that the regulatory constraints are not that tight, but self imposed reputational restrictions are tighter. The longer answer is ⬇️
www.bruegel.org/analysis/sus...
www.bruegel.org/analysis/sus...
Sustainability rules are not a block on EU defence financing, but reputational fears are
To mobilise private capital for weapons, the European Commission should clarify the status of defence investing in its sustainable finance framework
www.bruegel.org
March 17, 2025 at 4:17 PM
🔎 I’ve been asked many times whether EU sustainable finance rules are holding back EU defence financing. The short answer is that the regulatory constraints are not that tight, but self imposed reputational restrictions are tighter. The longer answer is ⬇️
www.bruegel.org/analysis/sus...
www.bruegel.org/analysis/sus...
Many thanks to Philippa Nuttal for featuring my thoughts in her must read @sustainableviews.bsky.social piece on the Omnibus. The bottomline is that sustainability-minded investors have reasons to be worried.
www.sustainableviews.com/eu-omnibus-t...
www.sustainableviews.com/eu-omnibus-t...
EU omnibus: ‘The uncertainty is killing everything’
The EU Commission’s proposals may have found favour with many in business and industry, but sustainability-minded investors are worried At a glanceThis week, the first debate was held in the European...
www.sustainableviews.com
March 17, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Many thanks to Philippa Nuttal for featuring my thoughts in her must read @sustainableviews.bsky.social piece on the Omnibus. The bottomline is that sustainability-minded investors have reasons to be worried.
www.sustainableviews.com/eu-omnibus-t...
www.sustainableviews.com/eu-omnibus-t...
The narrative for markets going into the US election was that Trump may be bad for the world, but was certainly good for America. That’s starting to change, as massive policy uncertainty threatens the myth of American exceptionalism. 🧶 1/
algebris.com/algebrisbull...
algebris.com/algebrisbull...
The Algebris Bullet | The Myth of Exceptionalism - Algebris Investments
Download The sweeping Republican victory in US elections revived the American dream. President Trump would be a positive disruptive force for America. Active fiscal policy and tariffs would boost inte...
algebris.com
March 13, 2025 at 6:58 AM
The narrative for markets going into the US election was that Trump may be bad for the world, but was certainly good for America. That’s starting to change, as massive policy uncertainty threatens the myth of American exceptionalism. 🧶 1/
algebris.com/algebrisbull...
algebris.com/algebrisbull...
Chronicle of a death foretold.
Swedish battery-maker Northvolt filed for bankruptcy in Sweden today, marking the final unraveling of a company once seen as Europe's standard bearer for the sector.
Europe’s great battery hope Northvolt files for bankruptcy in Sweden
“The EU must not give up on building a European battery industry,” says senior MEP.
ow.ly
March 12, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Chronicle of a death foretold.
German Bund reacts to the historic announcement of up to 800€ billion in military and infrastructure spending - which quite frankly trumps the EU RearmEU plan.
March 5, 2025 at 7:47 AM
German Bund reacts to the historic announcement of up to 800€ billion in military and infrastructure spending - which quite frankly trumps the EU RearmEU plan.
🔎 Streamlining or hollowing out? The implications of the Omnibus package for sustainable finance
In this @bruegel.bsky.social First glance I highlight two key risks for both the European Green Deal and sustainable finance present in the first Omnibus package.
🔗 buff.ly/eKbn6t2
#EconSky
In this @bruegel.bsky.social First glance I highlight two key risks for both the European Green Deal and sustainable finance present in the first Omnibus package.
🔗 buff.ly/eKbn6t2
#EconSky
Streamlining or hollowing out? The implications of the Omnibus package for sustainable finance
EU reporting simplification will result in less information and introduce distortions in the sustainable finance market
buff.ly
March 4, 2025 at 3:28 PM
🔎 Streamlining or hollowing out? The implications of the Omnibus package for sustainable finance
In this @bruegel.bsky.social First glance I highlight two key risks for both the European Green Deal and sustainable finance present in the first Omnibus package.
🔗 buff.ly/eKbn6t2
#EconSky
In this @bruegel.bsky.social First glance I highlight two key risks for both the European Green Deal and sustainable finance present in the first Omnibus package.
🔗 buff.ly/eKbn6t2
#EconSky
So far, Taxonomy-linked green bonds have been largely issued by already green companies, in sectors where demonstrating greeness is easier. In my view, this shows the Taxonomy framework doesn’t lend itself naturally to be used for transition finance.
#Econsky
🔗: www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
#Econsky
🔗: www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
February 20, 2025 at 8:58 AM
So far, Taxonomy-linked green bonds have been largely issued by already green companies, in sectors where demonstrating greeness is easier. In my view, this shows the Taxonomy framework doesn’t lend itself naturally to be used for transition finance.
#Econsky
🔗: www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
#Econsky
🔗: www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
‼️ How to improve the EU’s sustainable finance framework
In this @bruegel.bsky.social Policy brief, I look at market data and identify weaknesses that risk undermining the EU's sustainable finance framework. I also offer 5 recommendations for improvement.
🔗 Available now! buff.ly/41eSpDy
#EconSky
In this @bruegel.bsky.social Policy brief, I look at market data and identify weaknesses that risk undermining the EU's sustainable finance framework. I also offer 5 recommendations for improvement.
🔗 Available now! buff.ly/41eSpDy
#EconSky
How to improve the European Union’s sustainable finance framework
Five adjustments would make the EU sustainable finance framework more effective at delivering the desired alignment of incentives
buff.ly
February 15, 2025 at 9:34 AM
‼️ How to improve the EU’s sustainable finance framework
In this @bruegel.bsky.social Policy brief, I look at market data and identify weaknesses that risk undermining the EU's sustainable finance framework. I also offer 5 recommendations for improvement.
🔗 Available now! buff.ly/41eSpDy
#EconSky
In this @bruegel.bsky.social Policy brief, I look at market data and identify weaknesses that risk undermining the EU's sustainable finance framework. I also offer 5 recommendations for improvement.
🔗 Available now! buff.ly/41eSpDy
#EconSky
“The US innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates” has become a catchphrase among those bemoaning Europe’s weak growth. How should Europe respond to the wave of anti-ESG backlash that is underway in the US? My 2 cents here @bruegel.bsky.social
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
How should the EU react to the US attack on corporate sustainability?
The European Union should continue to push companies on net-zero alignment, but pragmatic changes can help ease burdens and maintain EU leadership
www.bruegel.org
February 7, 2025 at 6:43 AM
“The US innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates” has become a catchphrase among those bemoaning Europe’s weak growth. How should Europe respond to the wave of anti-ESG backlash that is underway in the US? My 2 cents here @bruegel.bsky.social
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
Equity futures down following the announcement of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China over the weekend. The euro also not liking the idea that Europe will most likely be next on the list.
February 3, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Equity futures down following the announcement of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China over the weekend. The euro also not liking the idea that Europe will most likely be next on the list.
As incoming US President Trump calls for Canada to join the US and doesn’t rule out taking Panama and Greenland by force, how should Europe respond? The best piece I read today is this one, by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and @gpapak.bsky.social ⬇️
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/g...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/g...
Global Cooperation in the Age of Trump | by George Papaconstantinou & Jean Pisani-Ferry - Project Syndicate
George Papaconstantinou & Jean Pisani-Ferry suggest how global commons and interdependencies can be managed in the absence of a responsible superpower.
www.project-syndicate.org
January 8, 2025 at 8:57 AM
As incoming US President Trump calls for Canada to join the US and doesn’t rule out taking Panama and Greenland by force, how should Europe respond? The best piece I read today is this one, by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and @gpapak.bsky.social ⬇️
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/g...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/g...