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ryanhamley.bsky.social
Ryan
@ryanhamley.bsky.social
Oh no
I’ve been avoiding social media the last week or so and I’m excited to have no idea what the fuck this is
November 4, 2024 at 8:07 PM
Yep. I grew up in Indiana County in the 80’s and 90’s. There was not a single non-white kid in my high school. No Jews or Muslims. No one that spoke Spanish. No one that was openly gay. We did have an Amish kid briefly. I lived in a conservative world for 18 years and I don’t want to go back
October 19, 2024 at 7:28 PM
I guess when ICE says “I’m from the government and I’m here to round people up into camps” that’s fine
October 19, 2024 at 7:23 PM
I grew up in rural PA and now live in the Bay Area and I’ve always been struck by the way people here who grew up in well-to-do, well-educated liberal families talk about conservatives with an almost anthropological remove while my wife and I are just like “fuck those guys”
Because most of us were not raised by radical leftists. We know the conservative mindset perfectly well because it’s not like they’re shy about speaking their minds.
October 19, 2024 at 6:44 PM
I bought a 15’ cord when I lost my charger and frankly, I flew too close to the sun. Now I gotta carry this cable around like a roadie setting up a Metallica show.
October 18, 2024 at 5:12 PM
Crypto’s main utility is speculation and as dark money for illicit activities. The fact that everyone involved is a right-wing lunatic is just a nice cherry on top reason for a Harris admin to crush the industry.

Ban online sports betting while we’re at it.
The article makes clear the connections and details of how Vance was chosen VP straight from the TechBros mouths. Not Don Jr.

I have to say this is an alarming thing that despite paying overly close attention to this election I hadn’t quite put together like this before.
October 18, 2024 at 5:09 PM
Cool that’s what I was wondering. Thanks!
October 17, 2024 at 7:49 PM
Ah I forgot there was a special election. I guess I was curious if the use of recalled vote could impact polling of different races in different ways or if it is a fairly uniform weight.
October 17, 2024 at 7:44 PM
How does recalled vote work in a situation like this where there wasn’t a Senate election in Arizona in 2020? Do they just ask about 2022?
October 17, 2024 at 7:35 PM
It’s actually hilarious that he momentarily convinced people he was semi-normal during the debate and then everyone immediately went “oh right, this guy sucks”
My favorite thing about hating JD Vance is that I'll never have to do it alone
October 17, 2024 at 6:07 PM
It’s fun to see a leopard eating Trump’s face for once
October 17, 2024 at 12:02 AM
🙌
Want to turn off iPhone notifications for annoying fundraising texts and filter them into their own box?

Two steps:
—Settings > Messages > [scroll to bottom] Filter Unknown Senders > ON
—Settings > Messages > Notifications > [scroll to bottom] Customize Notifications > Unknown Senders > OFF
Look at the relentlessness of my filtered texts now that you all showed me how to send them to their own special place 😭
October 17, 2024 at 12:01 AM
November Rain is a legit great song but him stroking out at the exact moment Slash’s solo hits has some appeal
October 16, 2024 at 6:40 AM
It’s telling that the only places that did have this at the state level were in the old Confederacy and adopted them during Jim Crow explicitly to make it next-to-impossible for black candidates to win statewide office
October 15, 2024 at 9:29 PM
Is there a good explanation for such dramatic splits in Senate and presidential polling? Given how widespread it is, it doesn’t seem like you can chalk it up to Kari Lake being a bad candidate or whatever.
October 15, 2024 at 5:55 PM
So he didn’t know what a town hall was, absolutely hated it and took the first opportunity he found to ditch, right?
October 15, 2024 at 4:45 PM
Kind of like how it’s much cheaper to just pay for everyone to have preventative medicine rather than wait until they end up in the emergency room. Many such cases
A classic of the school funding advocacy genre (that happens to be true): it costs society less to educate a child today than to pay for the consequences of not having educated them tomorrow.
Walz: "You can buy school buses and school meals or you can buy prison buses and prison meals. We'd rather buy the school buses. We'd rather invest on the front end."
October 14, 2024 at 11:56 PM
The most watched shows in America last year were Tracker, NCIS and Young Sheldon
October 14, 2024 at 7:06 PM
You’d think a press that keeps dinging Harris for supposedly not having detailed plans might find something objectionable in “I’ll say 100, 200. I’ll say 500. I don’t care.”
October 14, 2024 at 4:23 PM
Reposted by Ryan
really can’t emphasize enough that there is no actual evidence that the shape of the presidential race has changed
October 14, 2024 at 12:37 AM
I also find the splits between presidential polling and Senate polling in places like PA, AZ and NV hard to square, as is the difference in funding. It feels like the presidential polls are the only things actually pointing to a toss up election.
October 14, 2024 at 12:35 AM
I find it hard to believe that there’s been basically no movement post-Roe while running against the guy who killed it. But if you buy that recalled vote is herding polling results around the 2020 outcomes, that could explain some things
October 14, 2024 at 12:32 AM
I think I agree. It’s a fine line to walk because you don’t want to go all “unskew the polls” and ignore reality, but Nate Cohn just had an article about the usage of recalled vote precisely to avoid underestimating Trump again. But the effect may be to overestimate him now
October 14, 2024 at 12:31 AM
There’s some pretty solid reasons to think she’s going to win. It’s just that the downside is so enormously bad that it’s really hard to put it out of your mind.
October 13, 2024 at 11:49 PM