Trajectory
@readtrajectory.bsky.social
Strategic analysis where geopolitics, technology, and security converge.
Making sense of complexity.
🌐 readtrajectory.com
Making sense of complexity.
🌐 readtrajectory.com
China's blockade planning assumes Taiwan capitulates in weeks. Taiwan's strategic petroleum reserve holds 146 days. Someone's math is wrong.
February 10, 2026 at 1:59 AM
China's blockade planning assumes Taiwan capitulates in weeks. Taiwan's strategic petroleum reserve holds 146 days. Someone's math is wrong.
Middle powers are signing bilateral tech security pacts at record pace, promising to break China's supply chain grip. Reality check: even the most ambitious agreements cover less than 15% of critical components.
February 3, 2026 at 12:18 PM
Middle powers are signing bilateral tech security pacts at record pace, promising to break China's supply chain grip. Reality check: even the most ambitious agreements cover less than 15% of critical components.
Middle powers are quietly building the world's most ambitious tech decoupling project. No US leadership required.
February 3, 2026 at 12:18 PM
Middle powers are quietly building the world's most ambitious tech decoupling project. No US leadership required.
HIMARS on Taiwan's outlying islands would survive 8-15 minutes in actual conflict. That's not a bug in the deterrence strategy - it's the entire feature.
February 3, 2026 at 12:17 PM
HIMARS on Taiwan's outlying islands would survive 8-15 minutes in actual conflict. That's not a bug in the deterrence strategy - it's the entire feature.
Taiwan is deploying American HIMARS missiles on islands 100 miles from China. Military analysts expect them to survive roughly 6 hours in any conflict.
February 3, 2026 at 12:17 PM
Taiwan is deploying American HIMARS missiles on islands 100 miles from China. Military analysts expect them to survive roughly 6 hours in any conflict.
America's allies are saying no. Taiwan builds submarines alone while US Gulf partners refuse the bases needed to contain Iran.
February 3, 2026 at 12:16 PM
America's allies are saying no. Taiwan builds submarines alone while US Gulf partners refuse the bases needed to contain Iran.
Taiwan launches its first domestically-built submarine just as China perfects the technology to sink it. Timing couldn't be worse.
February 3, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Taiwan launches its first domestically-built submarine just as China perfects the technology to sink it. Timing couldn't be worse.
Taiwan's 8 submarines are supposed to stop a Chinese invasion. But they won't exist until 2035 - and China's anti-submarine warfare capabilities are advancing faster than Taiwan can build boats.
February 3, 2026 at 12:15 PM
Taiwan's 8 submarines are supposed to stop a Chinese invasion. But they won't exist until 2035 - and China's anti-submarine warfare capabilities are advancing faster than Taiwan can build boats.
Xi Jinping has purged more military leaders in three years than Mao did in 27. The PLA isn't getting stronger - it's getting paranoid.
February 3, 2026 at 12:15 PM
Xi Jinping has purged more military leaders in three years than Mao did in 27. The PLA isn't getting stronger - it's getting paranoid.
Xi Jinping has purged more generals in two years than any Chinese leader since Mao. The problem isn't corruption - it's that he built a military that can't fight wars.
February 3, 2026 at 12:14 PM
Xi Jinping has purged more generals in two years than any Chinese leader since Mao. The problem isn't corruption - it's that he built a military that can't fight wars.
Xi Jinping just purged more generals than any Chinese leader since Mao. Nine top commanders gone in two years. The military he's counting on for Taiwan 2027 was apparently rotten from within.
February 3, 2026 at 12:14 PM
Xi Jinping just purged more generals than any Chinese leader since Mao. Nine top commanders gone in two years. The military he's counting on for Taiwan 2027 was apparently rotten from within.
India just test-fired a hypersonic anti-ship missile that can sink Chinese carriers. China's response: "Welcome to mutual vulnerability.
February 3, 2026 at 12:13 PM
India just test-fired a hypersonic anti-ship missile that can sink Chinese carriers. China's response: "Welcome to mutual vulnerability.
India just tested a Mach 10 hypersonic missile. The weapons press called it a "game changer" for the Indian Ocean. They're wrong.
February 3, 2026 at 12:13 PM
India just tested a Mach 10 hypersonic missile. The weapons press called it a "game changer" for the Indian Ocean. They're wrong.
Taiwan's forward HIMARS on outlying islands will fire exactly one salvo before dying. Military planners know this. They're deploying them anyway.
February 3, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Taiwan's forward HIMARS on outlying islands will fire exactly one salvo before dying. Military planners know this. They're deploying them anyway.
Taiwan's outer islands sit 6 miles from China's coast. HIMARS launchers there could sink invasion ships in 90 seconds. There's just one problem: the islands have 4 minutes to live.
February 3, 2026 at 12:12 PM
Taiwan's outer islands sit 6 miles from China's coast. HIMARS launchers there could sink invasion ships in 90 seconds. There's just one problem: the islands have 4 minutes to live.
China offered Bougainville $15 billion for mining rights and naval access. Population: 300,000. The islanders said no.
February 3, 2026 at 12:12 PM
China offered Bougainville $15 billion for mining rights and naval access. Population: 300,000. The islanders said no.
Beijing's Belt and Road has secured mining deals across Africa and Asia. But on a small Pacific island, Chinese investment just hit an immovable object: grandmothers with veto power.
February 3, 2026 at 12:11 PM
Beijing's Belt and Road has secured mining deals across Africa and Asia. But on a small Pacific island, Chinese investment just hit an immovable object: grandmothers with veto power.
China's Belt and Road has penetrated 150+ countries. In January 2026, tiny Bougainville became the first to reject Beijing's advances not from Western pressure, but from something China can't buy.
February 3, 2026 at 12:11 PM
China's Belt and Road has penetrated 150+ countries. In January 2026, tiny Bougainville became the first to reject Beijing's advances not from Western pressure, but from something China can't buy.
China's war council now has just two members left after Xi's latest military purge. Meanwhile, the Pentagon quietly downgrades Beijing as a strategic threat.
January 30, 2026 at 9:01 PM
China's war council now has just two members left after Xi's latest military purge. Meanwhile, the Pentagon quietly downgrades Beijing as a strategic threat.
The Pentagon's most powerful deterrent just became its biggest bluff. Iran knows the US can't sustain strikes without Gulf bases that allies now deny.
January 30, 2026 at 8:04 PM
The Pentagon's most powerful deterrent just became its biggest bluff. Iran knows the US can't sustain strikes without Gulf bases that allies now deny.
When B-2 bombers hit Iran's nuclear sites, they flew 7,000 miles from Missouri—not from Qatar next door. America's closest Gulf allies wouldn't provide bases for the strike.
January 30, 2026 at 8:03 PM
When B-2 bombers hit Iran's nuclear sites, they flew 7,000 miles from Missouri—not from Qatar next door. America's closest Gulf allies wouldn't provide bases for the strike.
China's Rocket Force has lost its entire leadership generation since 2023.
Xi Jinping's military purge sacrifices invasion readiness to secure absolute war-making control
China's Rocket Force has lost its entire leadership generation since 2023. Nine senior commanders removed. Investigations exposed water replacing missile fuel, substandard silo construction, systematic procurement fraud—the deepest military crisis since the Cultural Revolution.
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January 29, 2026 at 10:25 PM
China's Rocket Force has lost its entire leadership generation since 2023.
Xi Jinping just dismantled his own nuclear deterrent. China's entire Rocket Force leadership has been purged since 2023—the military branch responsible for nuclear missiles and Taiwan invasion scenarios.
January 29, 2026 at 10:25 PM
Xi Jinping just dismantled his own nuclear deterrent. China's entire Rocket Force leadership has been purged since 2023—the military branch responsible for nuclear missiles and Taiwan invasion scenarios.
China has removed at least sixty senior military officers since 2023 in its biggest purge since Mao.
China military purge: Taiwan invasion impact analysis
China has removed at least sixty senior military officers since 2023 in its biggest purge since Mao. The campaign has gutted the Rocket Force and frozen defense procurement—yet PLA exercises around Taiwan grow more sophisticated. The purge reveals Xi's priorities: he fears disloyalty more than...
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January 29, 2026 at 10:24 PM
China has removed at least sixty senior military officers since 2023 in its biggest purge since Mao.
China just purged 60+ senior military officers in two years—the biggest military shakeup since Mao. Yet their Taiwan invasion exercises are getting more sophisticated, not less.
January 29, 2026 at 10:24 PM
China just purged 60+ senior military officers in two years—the biggest military shakeup since Mao. Yet their Taiwan invasion exercises are getting more sophisticated, not less.