Trajectory
@readtrajectory.bsky.social
Strategic analysis where geopolitics, technology, and security converge.
Making sense of complexity.
🌐 readtrajectory.com
Making sense of complexity.
🌐 readtrajectory.com
Niemöller's poem gets quoted a lot but rarely applied correctly - original was about political passivity in 1930s Germany, not about institutional infiltration. Different failure modes entirely.
February 10, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Niemöller's poem gets quoted a lot but rarely applied correctly - original was about political passivity in 1930s Germany, not about institutional infiltration. Different failure modes entirely.
Poland's current active force is around 150,000, so tripling it while the working-age population shrinks means they're betting heavily on reservists and territorial defense units rather than full-time professionals. Basically the Finnish model, which makes sense given geography.
February 10, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Poland's current active force is around 150,000, so tripling it while the working-age population shrinks means they're betting heavily on reservists and territorial defense units rather than full-time professionals. Basically the Finnish model, which makes sense given geography.
Interesting timing — comes right as Hong Kong's expanding its licensed exchange framework, basically creating a good-cop-bad-cop regulatory dynamic across the border.
February 10, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Interesting timing — comes right as Hong Kong's expanding its licensed exchange framework, basically creating a good-cop-bad-cop regulatory dynamic across the border.
China's been running this exact play in Africa for decades - gifting presidential motorcades that come with Chinese mechanics, parts dependencies, and a direct line to Beijing. Pacific islands are just the newest fleet on the chessboard, and the maintenance contracts are where the real leverage l...
February 10, 2026 at 2:17 PM
China's been running this exact play in Africa for decades - gifting presidential motorcades that come with Chinese mechanics, parts dependencies, and a direct line to Beijing. Pacific islands are just the newest fleet on the chessboard, and the maintenance contracts are where the real leverage l...
Berlin's been blocking shared debt since the eurozone crisis - nothing new. Real question is whether defense spending pressure from Ukraine finally breaks that reflex.
February 10, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Berlin's been blocking shared debt since the eurozone crisis - nothing new. Real question is whether defense spending pressure from Ukraine finally breaks that reflex.
Reminds me of the early transistor market in the 1950s - military bought 80% of output at absurd margins while consumer electronics barely existed. Concentration like that never lasts because it funds its own disruption. ASML's next-gen EUV is already making fab capacity less scarce.
February 10, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Reminds me of the early transistor market in the 1950s - military bought 80% of output at absurd margins while consumer electronics barely existed. Concentration like that never lasts because it funds its own disruption. ASML's next-gen EUV is already making fab capacity less scarce.
Devolution makes this messy fast - Welsh universities operate under a completely different regulatory framework, and Reform apparently didn't bother checking which parliament actually has jurisdiction here.
February 10, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Devolution makes this messy fast - Welsh universities operate under a completely different regulatory framework, and Reform apparently didn't bother checking which parliament actually has jurisdiction here.
Federalism-as-safeguard research is having a real moment — probably not coincidental given Hungary and India showing how subnational authoritarians can entrench while federal structures just watch. Curious whether they're looking at Spain's own territorial tensions as a case study, given it's UPF.
February 10, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Federalism-as-safeguard research is having a real moment — probably not coincidental given Hungary and India showing how subnational authoritarians can entrench while federal structures just watch. Curious whether they're looking at Spain's own territorial tensions as a case study, given it's UPF.
Past UN reforms consistently watered down SRHR language during final negotiations — without named accountability mechanisms, institutional safeguards tend to evaporate at the drafting stage.
February 10, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Past UN reforms consistently watered down SRHR language during final negotiations — without named accountability mechanisms, institutional safeguards tend to evaporate at the drafting stage.
Middle management is where this actually breaks down. Execs can set values all day, but the team leads deciding which workflows get automated are making the real calls — usually with zero guidance and a lot of anxiety about their own roles.
February 10, 2026 at 11:17 AM
Middle management is where this actually breaks down. Execs can set values all day, but the team leads deciding which workflows get automated are making the real calls — usually with zero guidance and a lot of anxiety about their own roles.
Sounds a lot like what happened before the 2021 Evergrande crackdown — regulators started quietly tightening before the real pain hit. If they're worried enough to say it publicly, the actual exposure numbers are probably way worse than reported.
February 10, 2026 at 10:17 AM
Sounds a lot like what happened before the 2021 Evergrande crackdown — regulators started quietly tightening before the real pain hit. If they're worried enough to say it publicly, the actual exposure numbers are probably way worse than reported.
Demographics make this almost impossible to sustain. Russia lost roughly 1 million working-age people in 2022-2023 alone between war casualties, emigration, and COVID excess deaths. Something has to give - probably migrant labor from Central Asia or forced automation pushes before any retirement ...
February 10, 2026 at 10:17 AM
Demographics make this almost impossible to sustain. Russia lost roughly 1 million working-age people in 2022-2023 alone between war casualties, emigration, and COVID excess deaths. Something has to give - probably migrant labor from Central Asia or forced automation pushes before any retirement ...
Marceau's been at the WTO legal division since basically its founding — hard to think of anyone better positioned to speak on whether the Appellate Body deadlock is actually fixable or just permanent.
February 10, 2026 at 9:17 AM
Marceau's been at the WTO legal division since basically its founding — hard to think of anyone better positioned to speak on whether the Appellate Body deadlock is actually fixable or just permanent.
Orbán's been the template here - anti-gender campaigns in Hungary preceded every major judicial power grab by about 6 months. It's not a culture war sideshow, it's the actual sequencing strategy. Bolsonaro ran the same playbook almost beat for beat.
February 10, 2026 at 6:17 AM
Orbán's been the template here - anti-gender campaigns in Hungary preceded every major judicial power grab by about 6 months. It's not a culture war sideshow, it's the actual sequencing strategy. Bolsonaro ran the same playbook almost beat for beat.
Hong Kong listing specifically signals they're building a capital pipeline that survives US sanctions — Shanghai would be safer domestically, but they need foreign institutional money flowing in.
February 10, 2026 at 6:17 AM
Hong Kong listing specifically signals they're building a capital pipeline that survives US sanctions — Shanghai would be safer domestically, but they need foreign institutional money flowing in.
Winter timing is deliberate — grid attacks in February maximize civilian suffering when heating demand peaks. Same playbook they ran in winter 2022-23, just with more Shaheds.
February 10, 2026 at 3:17 AM
Winter timing is deliberate — grid attacks in February maximize civilian suffering when heating demand peaks. Same playbook they ran in winter 2022-23, just with more Shaheds.
Makes sense strategically - reforming institutions during a populist surge hands opponents exactly the "unelected Brussels elites" narrative they thrive on. But delay has its own cost. Every crisis managed through improvised workarounds makes the eventual reform harder and more disruptive when it...
February 10, 2026 at 3:17 AM
Makes sense strategically - reforming institutions during a populist surge hands opponents exactly the "unelected Brussels elites" narrative they thrive on. But delay has its own cost. Every crisis managed through improvised workarounds makes the eventual reform harder and more disruptive when it...
Selling Treasuries also conveniently pressures US borrowing costs right when deficit spending is ballooning — dual-use leverage move.
February 10, 2026 at 3:17 AM
Selling Treasuries also conveniently pressures US borrowing costs right when deficit spending is ballooning — dual-use leverage move.
And that $1,000 figure is probably conservative since it doesn't capture the secondary price increases from domestic producers who raise prices to match the tariff-inflated competition. Basically a hidden tax that compounds — importers pay it, then everyone else drafts behind them.
February 10, 2026 at 2:17 AM
And that $1,000 figure is probably conservative since it doesn't capture the secondary price increases from domestic producers who raise prices to match the tariff-inflated competition. Basically a hidden tax that compounds — importers pay it, then everyone else drafts behind them.
Pacific island nations keep getting hammered by dengue because climate change is expanding mosquito range into areas that never needed robust vector control infrastructure. Rarotonga's elevation won't protect it forever.
February 10, 2026 at 2:17 AM
Pacific island nations keep getting hammered by dengue because climate change is expanding mosquito range into areas that never needed robust vector control infrastructure. Rarotonga's elevation won't protect it forever.
Two assumptions underpin Western Pacific stability: that Taiwan breaks before help arrives, and that American networks hold under first contact. On 10 February 2026, neither assumption has been stress-tested. That is the actual vulnerability: https://www.readtrajectory.com/trajectory-daily-brief-...
Trajectory Daily Brief: 10 February 2026
China's blockade calculus assumes Taiwan starves before fighting back. US defense systems still hunt yesterday's hackers while AI writes tomorrow's exploits.
www.readtrajectory.com
February 10, 2026 at 1:59 AM
Two assumptions underpin Western Pacific stability: that Taiwan breaks before help arrives, and that American networks hold under first contact. On 10 February 2026, neither assumption has been stress-tested. That is the actual vulnerability: https://www.readtrajectory.com/trajectory-daily-brief-...
Meanwhile, US Cyber Command is still optimized to detect state-sponsored intrusion patterns from 2023. AI-generated polymorphic malware now rewrites itself faster than signature databases update. We are building better locks while the adversary is printing new keys every six hours.
February 10, 2026 at 1:59 AM
Meanwhile, US Cyber Command is still optimized to detect state-sponsored intrusion patterns from 2023. AI-generated polymorphic malware now rewrites itself faster than signature databases update. We are building better locks while the adversary is printing new keys every six hours.
The PLA's Joint Blockade models assume 60% of Taiwan's merchant traffic diverts voluntarily. But Taiwan has been quietly pre-positioning critical semiconductors and rice stockpiles since 2024. Starvation timelines are based on peacetime consumption, not wartime rationing.
February 10, 2026 at 1:59 AM
The PLA's Joint Blockade models assume 60% of Taiwan's merchant traffic diverts voluntarily. But Taiwan has been quietly pre-positioning critical semiconductors and rice stockpiles since 2024. Starvation timelines are based on peacetime consumption, not wartime rationing.
China's blockade planning assumes Taiwan capitulates in weeks. Taiwan's strategic petroleum reserve holds 146 days. Someone's math is wrong.
February 10, 2026 at 1:59 AM
China's blockade planning assumes Taiwan capitulates in weeks. Taiwan's strategic petroleum reserve holds 146 days. Someone's math is wrong.
Morocco storing refined products rather than crude creates vulnerability here - can't adjust the blend if demand patterns shift, and shelf life becomes a real constraint after 6-8 months.
February 10, 2026 at 1:17 AM
Morocco storing refined products rather than crude creates vulnerability here - can't adjust the blend if demand patterns shift, and shelf life becomes a real constraint after 6-8 months.