Charlie
@probabilitynpower.bsky.social
Think tanker. Senior Fellow at IISS.
Reposted by Charlie
Shadow tanker BORACAY had two Russian "technicians" on board as her voyage past Denmark coincided with multiple drone sightings
CNN now shows how at least one of the technicians is actually a mercenary and many other tankers are crewed by mercs. As reported by DK pilots earlier
CNN now shows how at least one of the technicians is actually a mercenary and many other tankers are crewed by mercs. As reported by DK pilots earlier
February 5, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Shadow tanker BORACAY had two Russian "technicians" on board as her voyage past Denmark coincided with multiple drone sightings
CNN now shows how at least one of the technicians is actually a mercenary and many other tankers are crewed by mercs. As reported by DK pilots earlier
CNN now shows how at least one of the technicians is actually a mercenary and many other tankers are crewed by mercs. As reported by DK pilots earlier
A Wargame Shows Just How Vulnerable Europe Is to a Russian Attack Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on political will. ‘Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who played the Russian chief of general staff.’
February 5, 2026 at 11:57 AM
A Wargame Shows Just How Vulnerable Europe Is to a Russian Attack Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on political will. ‘Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who played the Russian chief of general staff.’
“Five, ten incidents like that, it starts to have a more strategic effect,” he added… “Sometimes I think they just want to keep us engaged and busy, investigating all these various operations of very minor significance, when the really big things are happening behind our backs.”
How Russia is utilizing single-use agents to sow fear throughout Europe. www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
Inside Russia’s Secret Campaign of Sabotage in Europe
How Russian military intelligence is recruiting young people online to carry out espionage, arson, and other attacks across the Continent.
www.newyorker.com
February 2, 2026 at 8:04 PM
“Five, ten incidents like that, it starts to have a more strategic effect,” he added… “Sometimes I think they just want to keep us engaged and busy, investigating all these various operations of very minor significance, when the really big things are happening behind our backs.”
Reposted by Charlie
A Liberia flagged freighter turned up in Denmark to pick up a new anchor.
The weeks before she was driving back and forth over an area of Baltic Sea particularly dense with comm cables and pipelines with a pit stop in Ust-Luga, Russia.
Hope someone, eg a cop, found out where the old one is.
The weeks before she was driving back and forth over an area of Baltic Sea particularly dense with comm cables and pipelines with a pit stop in Ust-Luga, Russia.
Hope someone, eg a cop, found out where the old one is.
February 2, 2026 at 9:14 AM
A Liberia flagged freighter turned up in Denmark to pick up a new anchor.
The weeks before she was driving back and forth over an area of Baltic Sea particularly dense with comm cables and pipelines with a pit stop in Ust-Luga, Russia.
Hope someone, eg a cop, found out where the old one is.
The weeks before she was driving back and forth over an area of Baltic Sea particularly dense with comm cables and pipelines with a pit stop in Ust-Luga, Russia.
Hope someone, eg a cop, found out where the old one is.
Reposted by Charlie
Spy cameras on Norwegian gas plant:
Cameras that monitored Melkøya discovered
The police in Finnmark have discovered two advanced cameras that continuously filmed the gas plant on Melkøya in the municipality of Hammerfest.
Cameras that monitored Melkøya discovered
The police in Finnmark have discovered two advanced cameras that continuously filmed the gas plant on Melkøya in the municipality of Hammerfest.
January 30, 2026 at 12:11 PM
Spy cameras on Norwegian gas plant:
Cameras that monitored Melkøya discovered
The police in Finnmark have discovered two advanced cameras that continuously filmed the gas plant on Melkøya in the municipality of Hammerfest.
Cameras that monitored Melkøya discovered
The police in Finnmark have discovered two advanced cameras that continuously filmed the gas plant on Melkøya in the municipality of Hammerfest.
Reposted by Charlie
Baltic Sea coastal states + UK released an open letter damning Russia's GPS-jamming and clarifying that normal rules for shipping also applies to the shadow fleet.
Interpreted* as "Baltic Sea closes for shadow fleet".
Cautiously optimistic I note ~60 sanctioned tanker active.
Interpreted* as "Baltic Sea closes for shadow fleet".
Cautiously optimistic I note ~60 sanctioned tanker active.
January 27, 2026 at 10:53 PM
Baltic Sea coastal states + UK released an open letter damning Russia's GPS-jamming and clarifying that normal rules for shipping also applies to the shadow fleet.
Interpreted* as "Baltic Sea closes for shadow fleet".
Cautiously optimistic I note ~60 sanctioned tanker active.
Interpreted* as "Baltic Sea closes for shadow fleet".
Cautiously optimistic I note ~60 sanctioned tanker active.
Reposted by Charlie
Dozens of tankers carrying Russian oil are stuck at sea after Indian refineries refused to buy the cargoes, Bloomberg reported. About 60 million barrels have accumulated on ships since August, with no unloading in sight. #Russia
January 28, 2026 at 9:20 AM
Dozens of tankers carrying Russian oil are stuck at sea after Indian refineries refused to buy the cargoes, Bloomberg reported. About 60 million barrels have accumulated on ships since August, with no unloading in sight. #Russia
‘A Russian flag will make the shadow fleet less shadowy and more strategic. The Kremlin may dispatch submarines and fighter jets to protect some ships. This will make it harder for Western forces to intervene.’
economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com/finance-and-...
The West and Ukraine are capsizing Russia’s shadow fleet
And sinking its oil revenues in the process
economist.com
January 27, 2026 at 8:40 PM
‘A Russian flag will make the shadow fleet less shadowy and more strategic. The Kremlin may dispatch submarines and fighter jets to protect some ships. This will make it harder for Western forces to intervene.’
economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Charlie
"...Russia is willing to absorb higher attrition rates on cruise missiles if the payoff is significant: disabling manoeuvring generation far from the front, disrupting power routing from nuclear plants, and forcing Ukraine into nationwide load-shedding." rochan-consulting.com/russian-stri...
Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy CI - Trends and Outlook - Rochan Consulting
In November 2025, I delivered a presentation to a client on Russian strikes against Ukrainian...
rochan-consulting.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:11 AM
"...Russia is willing to absorb higher attrition rates on cruise missiles if the payoff is significant: disabling manoeuvring generation far from the front, disrupting power routing from nuclear plants, and forcing Ukraine into nationwide load-shedding." rochan-consulting.com/russian-stri...
Reposted by Charlie
Poland’s energy infrastructure was targeted in a cyberattack now assessed as Russia-linked, involving an APT Sandworm. If the operation had succeeded, it could have caused major operational disruption, potentially a limited blackout. www.welivesecurity.com/en/eset-rese...
January 24, 2026 at 7:05 AM
Poland’s energy infrastructure was targeted in a cyberattack now assessed as Russia-linked, involving an APT Sandworm. If the operation had succeeded, it could have caused major operational disruption, potentially a limited blackout. www.welivesecurity.com/en/eset-rese...
Reposted by Charlie
Sweden, Finland Propose Strict Ban on Services for Russia-Linked Tankers
maritime-executive.com/article/swed...
maritime-executive.com/article/swed...
Sweden, Finland Propose Strict Ban on Services for Russia-Linked Tankers
The governments of Sweden and Finland, which have both experienced suspicious incidents linked to "shadow fleet" tankers, have jointly called on the...
maritime-executive.com
January 19, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Sweden, Finland Propose Strict Ban on Services for Russia-Linked Tankers
maritime-executive.com/article/swed...
maritime-executive.com/article/swed...
Reposted by Charlie
Poland suffered a major cyberattack on its power grid at the end of December and "came very close to a blackout”, the government has revealed.
“Everything points to Russian sabotage," says the digital affairs minister.
“Everything points to Russian sabotage," says the digital affairs minister.
Poland suffers major cyberattack on power grid, says Russia likely responsible
notesfrompoland.com
January 14, 2026 at 10:37 AM
Poland suffered a major cyberattack on its power grid at the end of December and "came very close to a blackout”, the government has revealed.
“Everything points to Russian sabotage," says the digital affairs minister.
“Everything points to Russian sabotage," says the digital affairs minister.
Reposted by Charlie
"Denmark has sent an advance military command to Greenland as preparations are made to deploy larger forces to the Arctic territory...The advance command is tasked with preparing for the arrival of additional units" cphpost.dk/2026-01-14/n...
Denmark to deploy more troops to Greenland, DR reports - The Copenhagen Post
Denmark has sent an advance military command to Greenland as preparations are made to deploy larger forces to the Arctic territory, according to DR. The advance command is tasked with preparing for th...
cphpost.dk
January 14, 2026 at 12:15 PM
"Denmark has sent an advance military command to Greenland as preparations are made to deploy larger forces to the Arctic territory...The advance command is tasked with preparing for the arrival of additional units" cphpost.dk/2026-01-14/n...
Reposted by Charlie
Finland can now reintroduce anti-personnel landmines.
Finland's withdrawal from Ottawa landmine treaty takes effect
Finland can now reintroduce anti-personnel landmines.
yle.fi
January 10, 2026 at 7:50 AM
Finland can now reintroduce anti-personnel landmines.
Reposted by Charlie
“Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.” A stark message from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Berlin.
A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
December 11, 2025 at 8:17 PM
“Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.” A stark message from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Berlin.
A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
Reposted by Charlie
Two explosions targeted a railway line that connects Poland and Ukraine. Prime Minister Tusk is calling these attacks “an unprecedented act of sabotage aimed at the security of the Polish state and its citizens.”
www.reuters.com/world/explos...
www.reuters.com/world/explos...
Polish PM says railway track blast was 'unprecedented act of sabotage'
An explosion that damaged a Polish railway track on a route to Ukraine was an "unprecedented act of sabotage", Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Monday, and he vowed to catch those responsible for an incident he said could have ended in tragedy.
www.reuters.com
November 17, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Two explosions targeted a railway line that connects Poland and Ukraine. Prime Minister Tusk is calling these attacks “an unprecedented act of sabotage aimed at the security of the Polish state and its citizens.”
www.reuters.com/world/explos...
www.reuters.com/world/explos...
Reposted by Charlie
'Closer analysis of the photo reveals two new radomes on the Yantar. The question is: what was this Russian spy ship doing with those new domes in the Dutch EEZ?'
Nadere analyse van de foto leert dat er twee nieuwe radomes op de Yantar staan. De vraag is dus: wat deed dit Russisch spionageschip met die nieuwe domes in de Nederlandse EEZ?
November 7, 2025 at 9:57 PM
'Closer analysis of the photo reveals two new radomes on the Yantar. The question is: what was this Russian spy ship doing with those new domes in the Dutch EEZ?'
Brussels Zaventem Airport was temporarily closed this evening after a report of a drone in its airspace. The drone sighting, which occurred shortly before 8 p.m., prompted the suspension of all incoming and departing flights. All incoming flights were diverted to Liège.
November 4, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Brussels Zaventem Airport was temporarily closed this evening after a report of a drone in its airspace. The drone sighting, which occurred shortly before 8 p.m., prompted the suspension of all incoming and departing flights. All incoming flights were diverted to Liège.
Reposted by Charlie
🚀🇩🇪🛰️
“Germany's defence minister has warned that his country's satellites are being shadowed by Russian satellites.
Boris Pistorius cited concerns over two 🇷🇺 Luch/Olymp satellites shadowing Intelsat satellites used by German forces and others.“
“Germany's defence minister has warned that his country's satellites are being shadowed by Russian satellites.
Boris Pistorius cited concerns over two 🇷🇺 Luch/Olymp satellites shadowing Intelsat satellites used by German forces and others.“
Russian satellites are shadowing our satellites, warns German defence minister
Germany's defence minister has warned that his country's satellites are being shadowed by Russian satellites.
news.sky.com
September 25, 2025 at 1:27 PM
🚀🇩🇪🛰️
“Germany's defence minister has warned that his country's satellites are being shadowed by Russian satellites.
Boris Pistorius cited concerns over two 🇷🇺 Luch/Olymp satellites shadowing Intelsat satellites used by German forces and others.“
“Germany's defence minister has warned that his country's satellites are being shadowed by Russian satellites.
Boris Pistorius cited concerns over two 🇷🇺 Luch/Olymp satellites shadowing Intelsat satellites used by German forces and others.“
Reposted by Charlie
German Chancellor Merz says Russia’s violations of NATO airspace in Poland and Romania are part of Putin’s long-term strategy of border testing and sabotage. He stressed that peace in Ukraine cannot come at the expense of sovereignty, warning a dictated peace would only embolden Moscow.
September 17, 2025 at 8:54 AM
German Chancellor Merz says Russia’s violations of NATO airspace in Poland and Romania are part of Putin’s long-term strategy of border testing and sabotage. He stressed that peace in Ukraine cannot come at the expense of sovereignty, warning a dictated peace would only embolden Moscow.
Reposted by Charlie
The Russian fishing vessel which experienced machine failure in Denmark this weekend crossed three different undersea cables while drifting. It stopped close to undersea gas infrastructure and close by Danish military intelligence hq and CPH Airport. Experts suspect spying.
In Danish.
In Danish.
Russisk skib fik maskinstop over undersøiske kabler i Danmark
Et topmoderne russiske fiskeskib meldte om maskinproblemer over tre undersøiske data- og kommunikationskabler tæt ved Amager. Skibet blev overvåget af NATO.
danwatch.dk
September 15, 2025 at 3:02 PM
The Russian fishing vessel which experienced machine failure in Denmark this weekend crossed three different undersea cables while drifting. It stopped close to undersea gas infrastructure and close by Danish military intelligence hq and CPH Airport. Experts suspect spying.
In Danish.
In Danish.
As Sabotage in Europe Mounts, So Do Calls to Retaliate Against Russia www.nytimes.com/2025/09/13/w...
As Sabotage in Europe Mounts, So Do Calls to Retaliate Against Russia
www.nytimes.com
September 13, 2025 at 6:31 PM
As Sabotage in Europe Mounts, So Do Calls to Retaliate Against Russia www.nytimes.com/2025/09/13/w...
Reposted by Charlie
I wrote this week on a new IISS report tracking suspected Russian sabotage in Europe. It shows a quadrupling in incidents between 2023 & 2024, as well as a more recent lull. That could indicate a change in Russia's calculus—or just a temporary pause.
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Russian sabotage attacks surged across Europe in 2024
This year’s apparent lull may be the calm before another storm
www.economist.com
July 25, 2025 at 4:07 PM
I wrote this week on a new IISS report tracking suspected Russian sabotage in Europe. It shows a quadrupling in incidents between 2023 & 2024, as well as a more recent lull. That could indicate a change in Russia's calculus—or just a temporary pause.
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Reposted by Charlie
So far, 32 people have been arrested in Poland for allegedly collaborating with Russia in acts of sabotage, according to PAP Polska Agencja Prasowa.
One Colombian national has already been sentenced (link) the others, including Belarusian and Russian citizens, remain in pre-trial detention.
One Colombian national has already been sentenced (link) the others, including Belarusian and Russian citizens, remain in pre-trial detention.
Colombian linked to Russian-backed arson attacks in Poland, say authorities
A 27-year-old Colombian man working for Russian intelligence was behind two arson attacks in Poland in 2024, according to interior ministry spokesman Jacek Dobrzyński.
www.polskieradio.pl
July 29, 2025 at 5:59 PM
So far, 32 people have been arrested in Poland for allegedly collaborating with Russia in acts of sabotage, according to PAP Polska Agencja Prasowa.
One Colombian national has already been sentenced (link) the others, including Belarusian and Russian citizens, remain in pre-trial detention.
One Colombian national has already been sentenced (link) the others, including Belarusian and Russian citizens, remain in pre-trial detention.