Paddy Carter
@paddycarter.bsky.social
Head of development economics at British International Investment, formerly CGD, ODI, lapsed academic economist and macroeconomics hobbyist.
https://sites.google.com/site/paddycarter/
https://sites.google.com/site/paddycarter/
Reposted by Paddy Carter
Here’s an archive for UK people blocked with the Internet Online Safety message.
archive.ph/2025.11.08-2...
archive.ph/2025.11.08-2...
archive.ph
November 10, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Here’s an archive for UK people blocked with the Internet Online Safety message.
archive.ph/2025.11.08-2...
archive.ph/2025.11.08-2...
Great essay about the World Bank 1993 East Asian Miracle report, and its downplaying of industrial policy, by Nancy Birdsall, who as acting chief economist become the "designated defender of the book" for its in-house review and saw "the resistance inside the Bank"
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org
November 7, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Great essay about the World Bank 1993 East Asian Miracle report, and its downplaying of industrial policy, by Nancy Birdsall, who as acting chief economist become the "designated defender of the book" for its in-house review and saw "the resistance inside the Bank"
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
I am really enjoying this account. It turns out painting dreary people in late night diners guy was mostly a paint light outdoors guy
Cobb's Barns, South Truro - 1930
https://botfrens.com/collections/173/contents/3104366
https://botfrens.com/collections/173/contents/3104366
November 7, 2025 at 9:13 AM
I am really enjoying this account. It turns out painting dreary people in late night diners guy was mostly a paint light outdoors guy
Reposted by Paddy Carter
New substack: why governments cannot offer competence alone: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-compete...
On competenciness
Centrists don't offer actual competence, but merely a false illusion of it.
chrisdillow.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:26 PM
New substack: why governments cannot offer competence alone: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-compete...
November 5, 2025 at 10:24 AM
research here suggesting AI soundly beats analysts at stock picking, who make predictable mistakes. I wonder how the market will behave if dominated by AI decisions www.nber.org/papers/w34420
The Prestakes of Stock Market Investing
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 4, 2025 at 11:29 AM
research here suggesting AI soundly beats analysts at stock picking, who make predictable mistakes. I wonder how the market will behave if dominated by AI decisions www.nber.org/papers/w34420
this nonsense really grinds my gears. Financing "profitable projects" is "adding to debt burdens"? Objecting to investments needed to decarbonise large carbon emitting UMICs is just nuts.
Just in time for #COP30, our latest briefing highlights why MDBs are not currently fit for purpose to deliver climate finance & how they must reform to better align with the #ParisAgreement and #SDGs
🔗 re-course.org/newsupdates/...
All week, we’ll highlight our key recommendations below 🧵
🔗 re-course.org/newsupdates/...
All week, we’ll highlight our key recommendations below 🧵
November 4, 2025 at 10:49 AM
this nonsense really grinds my gears. Financing "profitable projects" is "adding to debt burdens"? Objecting to investments needed to decarbonise large carbon emitting UMICs is just nuts.
Reposted by Paddy Carter
In today's blog, I discuss how much I'm updating my priors on the effectiveness of wage subsidies in developing countries based on several new studies: quite a bit on shaping who is hired, much less on whether they create new jobs, a bit on coping with shocks blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...
Updating my priors on the effectiveness of wage subsidies in developing countries
blogs.worldbank.org
November 3, 2025 at 1:57 PM
In today's blog, I discuss how much I'm updating my priors on the effectiveness of wage subsidies in developing countries based on several new studies: quite a bit on shaping who is hired, much less on whether they create new jobs, a bit on coping with shocks blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...
I did not realise the EIB has so much spare capacity - it should be building interconnectors across Europe (and into Africa). Among other things. @stephenpaduano.bsky.social
findevlab.org/financing-eu...
findevlab.org/financing-eu...
November 3, 2025 at 9:23 AM
I did not realise the EIB has so much spare capacity - it should be building interconnectors across Europe (and into Africa). Among other things. @stephenpaduano.bsky.social
findevlab.org/financing-eu...
findevlab.org/financing-eu...
Does 3D printing mean it's going to be affordable to start making buildings with twiddly bits again like, I dunno, the Louvre
October 31, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Does 3D printing mean it's going to be affordable to start making buildings with twiddly bits again like, I dunno, the Louvre
Presumably there are parallels here to UK policy towards foreign students
The economic effects of international students go far beyond their tuition dollars.
Many stay, innovate, & shape the productivity of the entire economy.
My co-authors & I estimate the impact of US international student exclusion policy in this new paper commissioned by the @nationalacademies.org.
Many stay, innovate, & shape the productivity of the entire economy.
My co-authors & I estimate the impact of US international student exclusion policy in this new paper commissioned by the @nationalacademies.org.
October 28, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Presumably there are parallels here to UK policy towards foreign students
Reposted by Paddy Carter
If you were looking for one of the lowest cost ways of preventing climate change, you might head for the “deforestation frontier” in the Amazon rainforest.
economist.com/the-americas...
economist.com/the-americas...
October 25, 2025 at 8:39 AM
If you were looking for one of the lowest cost ways of preventing climate change, you might head for the “deforestation frontier” in the Amazon rainforest.
economist.com/the-americas...
economist.com/the-americas...
this is a whopper - 600+ pages - but the intro by Besley and Velasco is short easy reading. Is this really the mainstream consensus? A lot of big names are in here, and other big names give positive blubs. If so, it differs from the "mainstream" econ of the popular imagination.
35 years after the Washington Consensus, is a new economic paradigm emerging?
Read a new interview with Irene Bucelli, Tim Besley and Andrés Velasco, editors of The London Consensus @lsepress.bsky.social @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social
Read a new interview with Irene Bucelli, Tim Besley and Andrés Velasco, editors of The London Consensus @lsepress.bsky.social @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social
A new consensus? Economic principles for the 21st century - LSE Review of Books
The London Consensus asks 50 world-leading experts what economic principles are shaping the 21st century – Q&A with Tim Besley, Andrés Velasco & Irene Bucelli.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
October 24, 2025 at 11:44 AM
this is a whopper - 600+ pages - but the intro by Besley and Velasco is short easy reading. Is this really the mainstream consensus? A lot of big names are in here, and other big names give positive blubs. If so, it differs from the "mainstream" econ of the popular imagination.
Reposted by Paddy Carter
35 years after the Washington Consensus, is a new economic paradigm emerging?
Read a new interview with Irene Bucelli, Tim Besley and Andrés Velasco, editors of The London Consensus @lsepress.bsky.social @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social
Read a new interview with Irene Bucelli, Tim Besley and Andrés Velasco, editors of The London Consensus @lsepress.bsky.social @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social
A new consensus? Economic principles for the 21st century - LSE Review of Books
The London Consensus asks 50 world-leading experts what economic principles are shaping the 21st century – Q&A with Tim Besley, Andrés Velasco & Irene Bucelli.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
October 24, 2025 at 9:02 AM
35 years after the Washington Consensus, is a new economic paradigm emerging?
Read a new interview with Irene Bucelli, Tim Besley and Andrés Velasco, editors of The London Consensus @lsepress.bsky.social @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social
Read a new interview with Irene Bucelli, Tim Besley and Andrés Velasco, editors of The London Consensus @lsepress.bsky.social @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social
Reposted by Paddy Carter
Thread on India @thepolycrisis.bsky.social:
"What provides India greater freedom of choice & sovereignty? Locking into hydrocarbon coalitions or doubling down on a green electrostate track?How India chooses will shape the destiny of 1.4Bn citizens—& the world"
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ind...
"What provides India greater freedom of choice & sovereignty? Locking into hydrocarbon coalitions or doubling down on a green electrostate track?How India chooses will shape the destiny of 1.4Bn citizens—& the world"
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ind...
India in the New Global Order | Shreyas Shende
Between hydrocarbon coalitions and the green electric development
www.phenomenalworld.org
October 23, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Thread on India @thepolycrisis.bsky.social:
"What provides India greater freedom of choice & sovereignty? Locking into hydrocarbon coalitions or doubling down on a green electrostate track?How India chooses will shape the destiny of 1.4Bn citizens—& the world"
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ind...
"What provides India greater freedom of choice & sovereignty? Locking into hydrocarbon coalitions or doubling down on a green electrostate track?How India chooses will shape the destiny of 1.4Bn citizens—& the world"
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ind...
Reposted by Paddy Carter
Last month I took a trip to the Amazon rainforest to better understand the economics behind deforestation and how to preserve the world’s largest forest.
economist.com/the-americas...
economist.com/the-americas...
The obvious economics of preserving the Amazon
It provides Brazil’s world-beating farmers with water, and keeps carbon locked up for the rest of us
economist.com
October 23, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Last month I took a trip to the Amazon rainforest to better understand the economics behind deforestation and how to preserve the world’s largest forest.
economist.com/the-americas...
economist.com/the-americas...
I am going to take a punt here without reading it ... risky. These look to me like the sort of numbers you get in capital intensive industries if you look at the earnings that recoup capital costs, and ignore those capital costs.
Nearly 1/4 of your energy bill is taken in profit
Shareholders have received *£70 billion* in dividends since 2010
@cmmonwealth.bsky.social
No need to choose between affordable bills and a safe planet for our grandchildren, if we TAKE BACK OUR ENERGY
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Shareholders have received *£70 billion* in dividends since 2010
@cmmonwealth.bsky.social
No need to choose between affordable bills and a safe planet for our grandchildren, if we TAKE BACK OUR ENERGY
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
‘Privatisation premium’: billions from UK energy bills paid to shareholders
Analysis reveals £416 of average bill of £1,719 taken as pre-tax profits by the major energy industries last year, rather than being reinvested
www.theguardian.com
October 23, 2025 at 11:48 AM
I am going to take a punt here without reading it ... risky. These look to me like the sort of numbers you get in capital intensive industries if you look at the earnings that recoup capital costs, and ignore those capital costs.
some encouraging evidence here that green-labelled bonds and loans are actually achieving something meaningful
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0...
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0...
October 23, 2025 at 10:52 AM
some encouraging evidence here that green-labelled bonds and loans are actually achieving something meaningful
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0...
documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0...
Not enough attention being paid to this: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
Trump Is Taking Aim at the Midterms
Richard K. Sherwin concludes that the US president has no intention of permitting free and fair congressional elections in 2026.
www.project-syndicate.org
October 20, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Not enough attention being paid to this: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
She can't have a "culturally coherent group" because half of us want nothing to do with a culture of bigotry, xenophobia and resentment.
Sunday Times interview Tory "rising star" Katie Lam
She is clear she wants lots of legal migrants to be told to "go home" so as "to leave a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people"
(The interviewer suggests she is scrapping ILR or stripping people of it)
She is clear she wants lots of legal migrants to be told to "go home" so as "to leave a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people"
(The interviewer suggests she is scrapping ILR or stripping people of it)
October 19, 2025 at 8:46 AM
She can't have a "culturally coherent group" because half of us want nothing to do with a culture of bigotry, xenophobia and resentment.
I don't know how the all-in cost of this thing compares to a gas boiler, but this article says it only needs six hours of power a day to maintain 1000 degrees heat for steam. That could stabilise power prices when the renewable generation is at its peak.
Rondo Energy begins commercial operations of the world's largest industrial heat battery — 100 MWh — capable of converting low-cost electricity from wind & solar into heat at >1000°C and supply constant heating needs for industrial processes. 🔌💡
share.google/rniuYqTcGHfo...
share.google/rniuYqTcGHfo...
'World’s largest' industrial heat battery is online and solar-powered
Rondo Energy launches the world's largest industrial heat battery in California, delivering 24/7 steam and heat powered by renewables.
share.google
October 17, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I don't know how the all-in cost of this thing compares to a gas boiler, but this article says it only needs six hours of power a day to maintain 1000 degrees heat for steam. That could stabilise power prices when the renewable generation is at its peak.
Reposted by Paddy Carter
The OECD effectively solved* cross-border bank tax evasion - a major problem of globalisation - with global automatic exchange of financial data.
They just took the first step towards a similar system for cross-border real estate. That’s big!
www.oecd.org/content/dam/...
*okay, with caveats
They just took the first step towards a similar system for cross-border real estate. That’s big!
www.oecd.org/content/dam/...
*okay, with caveats
October 17, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The OECD effectively solved* cross-border bank tax evasion - a major problem of globalisation - with global automatic exchange of financial data.
They just took the first step towards a similar system for cross-border real estate. That’s big!
www.oecd.org/content/dam/...
*okay, with caveats
They just took the first step towards a similar system for cross-border real estate. That’s big!
www.oecd.org/content/dam/...
*okay, with caveats
We have added a new speaker. The CFO of Nigerian steel producer AIG. If you're interested in the green transition in Africa, register to join us on 12 Dec, below.
We have a terrific line up for this year's "research and practice" conference at @britishintinv.bsky.social (with @cepr.org ) about the business of climate technology adoption - great research, and executives from fascinating green tech businesses. If this is your bag, please join us. More Info:
The business of climate technology adoption: evidence from research and reality - British International Investment
www.bii.co.uk
October 16, 2025 at 8:00 AM
We have added a new speaker. The CFO of Nigerian steel producer AIG. If you're interested in the green transition in Africa, register to join us on 12 Dec, below.
Reposted by Paddy Carter
Natural forest regrowth in the world’s tropical rainforests is expanding.
According to the Forest Declaration Assessment 2025, more than 11 million hectares (27 million acres) of tropical moist forests are under some stage of forest regrowth between 2015 and 2021.
According to the Forest Declaration Assessment 2025, more than 11 million hectares (27 million acres) of tropical moist forests are under some stage of forest regrowth between 2015 and 2021.
Report finds increased tropical forest regrowth over the last decade
Natural forest regrowth in the world’s tropical rainforests is expanding. According to the Forest Declaration Assessment 2025, more than 11 million hectares (27 million acres) of tropical moist…
news.mongabay.com
October 15, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Natural forest regrowth in the world’s tropical rainforests is expanding.
According to the Forest Declaration Assessment 2025, more than 11 million hectares (27 million acres) of tropical moist forests are under some stage of forest regrowth between 2015 and 2021.
According to the Forest Declaration Assessment 2025, more than 11 million hectares (27 million acres) of tropical moist forests are under some stage of forest regrowth between 2015 and 2021.
why have the designers of AI made things so that it says:
"I sincerely apologise for doing Y, I understand that you asked me to do X not Y. I shall now do X"
[does Y]
over and over again?
"I sincerely apologise for doing Y, I understand that you asked me to do X not Y. I shall now do X"
[does Y]
over and over again?
October 15, 2025 at 12:36 PM
why have the designers of AI made things so that it says:
"I sincerely apologise for doing Y, I understand that you asked me to do X not Y. I shall now do X"
[does Y]
over and over again?
"I sincerely apologise for doing Y, I understand that you asked me to do X not Y. I shall now do X"
[does Y]
over and over again?