Paasha Mahdavi
@paashamahdavi.com
UCSB prof, researching climate politics and the oil industry. EGAPE Lab Director and 2035 Initiative co-founder. Wrote a book on oil nationalization (https://tinyurl.com/2zyaf8bd). Working to transition from the fossil fuel era. Posts expire after 30 days.
Climate continues to get short-changed by reporting on Venezuela, so I’m grateful to Dharna Noor @theguardian.com for elevating climate & environmental implications.
If Venezuelan oil ramps up, we as a planet are going to pay the price.
More of my thoughts:
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
If Venezuelan oil ramps up, we as a planet are going to pay the price.
More of my thoughts:
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
Trump taking ‘drill, baby, drill’ plan to Venezuela ‘terrible’ for climate, experts warn
‘Everybody loses’ if production supercharged in country with largest known oil reserves, critics say
www.theguardian.com
January 7, 2026 at 7:28 PM
Climate continues to get short-changed by reporting on Venezuela, so I’m grateful to Dharna Noor @theguardian.com for elevating climate & environmental implications.
If Venezuelan oil ramps up, we as a planet are going to pay the price.
More of my thoughts:
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
If Venezuelan oil ramps up, we as a planet are going to pay the price.
More of my thoughts:
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi
"Just this week, The Guardian quoted Sharon Wilson, a former oil and gas worker who has documented methane releases for more than a decade, saying that xAi’s Colossus data center in Memphis is spewing more emissions than a large power plant."
AI’s carbon footprint could be enormous: Are there pathways to net-zero?
AI server deployment across the US could generate between 24 to 44 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually by 2030. That’s like adding 5 to 10 million cars to American roads.
cybernews.com
January 7, 2026 at 4:16 PM
"Just this week, The Guardian quoted Sharon Wilson, a former oil and gas worker who has documented methane releases for more than a decade, saying that xAi’s Colossus data center in Memphis is spewing more emissions than a large power plant."
Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi
It's unclear how US oil majors will respond to Trump’s plans of regime change and increased oil extraction in Venezuela. Any expansion would be “terrible for the climate, terrible for the environment”, said UCSB prof Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
Trump taking ‘drill, baby, drill’ plan to Venezuela ‘terrible’ for climate, experts warn
‘Everybody loses’ if production supercharged in country with largest known oil reserves, critics say
www.theguardian.com
January 7, 2026 at 6:18 AM
It's unclear how US oil majors will respond to Trump’s plans of regime change and increased oil extraction in Venezuela. Any expansion would be “terrible for the climate, terrible for the environment”, said UCSB prof Paasha Mahdavi @paashamahdavi.com
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
So we’re just expropriating foreign oil now? Am I gonna have to write another book about oil nationalization???
Trump: “I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America. This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President”
January 7, 2026 at 12:25 AM
So we’re just expropriating foreign oil now? Am I gonna have to write another book about oil nationalization???
“The central problem facing Venezuela’s oil sector is therefore not technical or geological. It is political and institutional. These realities are often obscured by wishful thinking or by actors seeking quick profits.”
- @fmonaldi.bsky.social
- @fmonaldi.bsky.social
Fixing the Venezuelan oil industry will take time, money, and—most importantly—institutional change
open.substack.com/pub/fmonaldi...
open.substack.com/pub/fmonaldi...
Fixing the Venezuelan oil industry will take time, money, and—most importantly—institutional change
Francisco Monaldi
open.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 1:03 PM
“The central problem facing Venezuela’s oil sector is therefore not technical or geological. It is political and institutional. These realities are often obscured by wishful thinking or by actors seeking quick profits.”
- @fmonaldi.bsky.social
- @fmonaldi.bsky.social
In 1947, the Richmond Exploration Co struck oil at the supergiant Boscán field.
79 years and 3 nationalizations later, what’s now Chevron is still standing—waiting for another *apertura petrolera* and the next big payday.
My oil history thoughts for @latimes.com
www.latimes.com/california/s...
79 years and 3 nationalizations later, what’s now Chevron is still standing—waiting for another *apertura petrolera* and the next big payday.
My oil history thoughts for @latimes.com
www.latimes.com/california/s...
Ties between California and Venezuela go back more than a century with Chevron
Chevron, the oil giant founded and until recently headquartered in California, is the only foreign petroleum company still operating in Venezuela and its largest foreign investor.
www.latimes.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:14 AM
In 1947, the Richmond Exploration Co struck oil at the supergiant Boscán field.
79 years and 3 nationalizations later, what’s now Chevron is still standing—waiting for another *apertura petrolera* and the next big payday.
My oil history thoughts for @latimes.com
www.latimes.com/california/s...
79 years and 3 nationalizations later, what’s now Chevron is still standing—waiting for another *apertura petrolera* and the next big payday.
My oil history thoughts for @latimes.com
www.latimes.com/california/s...
Great to be on @cbcnews.ca's The National last night talking about the carbon footprint of Venezuela's oil production and the "muddy footprints" of the U.S. oil industry in this whole fiasco.
January 5, 2026 at 9:51 PM
Great to be on @cbcnews.ca's The National last night talking about the carbon footprint of Venezuela's oil production and the "muddy footprints" of the U.S. oil industry in this whole fiasco.
Not a surprise. The only ones who thought this was a good idea in the first place were the neocon hawks who… are not Trump’s constituency.
BREAKING: The U.S. won’t govern Venezuela, but will press changes through an oil blockade, Rubio says, after Trump claims of running the country.
Venezuela live updates: Uncertainty and legal questions remain after US captures Maduro
The Trump administration’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and claims that it will “run” the country are raising stark new questions about the legality of the U.S. actions and its future operations in the South American nation.
bit.ly
January 4, 2026 at 6:26 PM
Not a surprise. The only ones who thought this was a good idea in the first place were the neocon hawks who… are not Trump’s constituency.
Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi
Teenage me who decided to become an oil reporter in '03 because of the Iraq war 🤝 this moment
Here's NPR's explainer about Venezuela's oil industry🇻🇪 🛢️ (and Guyana's too 🇬🇾 🛢️)
Featuring @paashamahdavi.com @fmonaldi.bsky.social and more
Here's NPR's explainer about Venezuela's oil industry🇻🇪 🛢️ (and Guyana's too 🇬🇾 🛢️)
Featuring @paashamahdavi.com @fmonaldi.bsky.social and more
Trump wants U.S. oil companies in Venezuela. Here's what to know
President Trump wants more U.S. oil companies to "go in" to Venezuela. But there are economic, historical, and climate reasons that may not be easy. Here's what you need to know about oil in Venezuela...
www.npr.org
January 4, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Teenage me who decided to become an oil reporter in '03 because of the Iraq war 🤝 this moment
Here's NPR's explainer about Venezuela's oil industry🇻🇪 🛢️ (and Guyana's too 🇬🇾 🛢️)
Featuring @paashamahdavi.com @fmonaldi.bsky.social and more
Here's NPR's explainer about Venezuela's oil industry🇻🇪 🛢️ (and Guyana's too 🇬🇾 🛢️)
Featuring @paashamahdavi.com @fmonaldi.bsky.social and more
Venezuela's oil is among the dirtiest oils in the world to produce when it comes to global warming.
But revitalizing the industry will take years (it’s taken Iraq 20+). Even harder with only ‘concepts of a plan’
My thoughts for @juliaradio.bsky.social @npr.org
www.npr.org/2026/01/04/n...
But revitalizing the industry will take years (it’s taken Iraq 20+). Even harder with only ‘concepts of a plan’
My thoughts for @juliaradio.bsky.social @npr.org
www.npr.org/2026/01/04/n...
Trump wants U.S. oil companies in Venezuela. Here's what to know
President Trump wants more U.S. oil companies to "go in" to Venezuela. But there are economic, historical, and climate reasons that may not be easy. Here's what you need to know about oil in Venezuela...
www.npr.org
January 4, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Venezuela's oil is among the dirtiest oils in the world to produce when it comes to global warming.
But revitalizing the industry will take years (it’s taken Iraq 20+). Even harder with only ‘concepts of a plan’
My thoughts for @juliaradio.bsky.social @npr.org
www.npr.org/2026/01/04/n...
But revitalizing the industry will take years (it’s taken Iraq 20+). Even harder with only ‘concepts of a plan’
My thoughts for @juliaradio.bsky.social @npr.org
www.npr.org/2026/01/04/n...
Totally weird. A coincidence, I'm sure 😂
January 3, 2026 at 9:50 PM
Totally weird. A coincidence, I'm sure 😂
Wood Mackenzie estimates about 1 million more bpd (~100% increase) could be online w/n 2 years without significant capital investment. But it'd take $15-20 bn over the next 10 yrs to increase production by another 500k bpd to get closer to pre-Chavez peak of 3m bpd. www.woodmac.com/blogs/energy...
What could change in Venezuela mean for oil production? | Wood Mackenzie
Explore how shifting US policy toward Venezuela, OPEC+ capacity audits, rising US gas prices, and surging data-centre demand are reshaping global oil, gas and power markets, with expert insight from W...
www.woodmac.com
January 3, 2026 at 9:49 PM
Wood Mackenzie estimates about 1 million more bpd (~100% increase) could be online w/n 2 years without significant capital investment. But it'd take $15-20 bn over the next 10 yrs to increase production by another 500k bpd to get closer to pre-Chavez peak of 3m bpd. www.woodmac.com/blogs/energy...
Not always — lifting costs vary substantially based on geology and tech (and financing)
Eg, see this cost curve based on break-even prices around the world (from www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
Eg, see this cost curve based on break-even prices around the world (from www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
January 3, 2026 at 7:20 PM
Not always — lifting costs vary substantially based on geology and tech (and financing)
Eg, see this cost curve based on break-even prices around the world (from www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
Eg, see this cost curve based on break-even prices around the world (from www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi
1. Look, there are basically just two ways to run the global oil market: petro-imperialism and petro-consumerism. Historically USA has embraced both, varying over time. The attack on #Venezuela is a return to naked petro-imperialism. Thread.
January 3, 2026 at 6:51 PM
1. Look, there are basically just two ways to run the global oil market: petro-imperialism and petro-consumerism. Historically USA has embraced both, varying over time. The attack on #Venezuela is a return to naked petro-imperialism. Thread.
The real kicker here is that if US companies do succeed in ramping up Venezuela’s oil, it’s some of the dirtiest and most carbon intensive in the world. And it’s cheap to produce (PdVSA says $5/barrel, probably closer to $25).
ociplus.rmi.org/supply-chain
ociplus.rmi.org/supply-chain
January 3, 2026 at 6:55 PM
The real kicker here is that if US companies do succeed in ramping up Venezuela’s oil, it’s some of the dirtiest and most carbon intensive in the world. And it’s cheap to produce (PdVSA says $5/barrel, probably closer to $25).
ociplus.rmi.org/supply-chain
ociplus.rmi.org/supply-chain
And I mean, not to belabor the point, but Chevron and Exxon are clearly getting a return on investment from their contributions... And Trump benefits from the industry's support. So there is a Hacker-Pierson political economy story here
January 3, 2026 at 6:29 PM
And I mean, not to belabor the point, but Chevron and Exxon are clearly getting a return on investment from their contributions... And Trump benefits from the industry's support. So there is a Hacker-Pierson political economy story here
Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi
"We're in the oil business" - Trump
January 3, 2026 at 5:25 PM
"We're in the oil business" - Trump
Not paramount, but not absent either — industry has been pretty vocal about this to the administration, and it’s amplified Rubio’s grievances
January 3, 2026 at 6:09 PM
Not paramount, but not absent either — industry has been pretty vocal about this to the administration, and it’s amplified Rubio’s grievances
I spent months in the archives sleuthing for direct quotes on motivations for Western intervention against oil nationalizations in the 70s, and this f’ing guy just blurts it out the morning after
Q: Is it possible that the US ends up administering Venezuela for years?
TRUMP: Well, you know, it won't cost us anything because the money coming out of the ground is very substantial
TRUMP: Well, you know, it won't cost us anything because the money coming out of the ground is very substantial
January 3, 2026 at 6:05 PM
I spent months in the archives sleuthing for direct quotes on motivations for Western intervention against oil nationalizations in the 70s, and this f’ing guy just blurts it out the morning after
By “sit on” I mean not producing during the years it takes for companies to bring wells online. But in terms of “expensive” — I see the higher prices as a side effect of, not driver for, the invasion.
January 3, 2026 at 5:44 PM
By “sit on” I mean not producing during the years it takes for companies to bring wells online. But in terms of “expensive” — I see the higher prices as a side effect of, not driver for, the invasion.
Reposted by Paasha Mahdavi
NEW: Spokesperson from Chevron messaged me today.
@atrupar.com reported:
FOX & FRIENDS: What do you see as the future of Venezuela's oil industry?
TRUMP: Well I see that we're gonna be very strongly involved in it. That's all. What can I say. We have the greatest oil companies in the world.
@atrupar.com reported:
FOX & FRIENDS: What do you see as the future of Venezuela's oil industry?
TRUMP: Well I see that we're gonna be very strongly involved in it. That's all. What can I say. We have the greatest oil companies in the world.
January 3, 2026 at 5:26 PM
NEW: Spokesperson from Chevron messaged me today.
@atrupar.com reported:
FOX & FRIENDS: What do you see as the future of Venezuela's oil industry?
TRUMP: Well I see that we're gonna be very strongly involved in it. That's all. What can I say. We have the greatest oil companies in the world.
@atrupar.com reported:
FOX & FRIENDS: What do you see as the future of Venezuela's oil industry?
TRUMP: Well I see that we're gonna be very strongly involved in it. That's all. What can I say. We have the greatest oil companies in the world.
So you’re right that it’s indeed rational to sit on these barrels for now, and let the global price increase amidst the chaos and uncertainty of the invasion.
January 3, 2026 at 4:10 PM
So you’re right that it’s indeed rational to sit on these barrels for now, and let the global price increase amidst the chaos and uncertainty of the invasion.
Most reserves could be untapped for years, given how poorly PdVSA has managed things. But for US producers, the long-run benefit is that these are operationally-cheap barrels (compared to shale).
Ben Cahill wrote some of this up in @barrons.com last month: www.barrons.com/articles/ven...
Ben Cahill wrote some of this up in @barrons.com last month: www.barrons.com/articles/ven...
Who Wants Venezuela’s Oil Anyway?
It will take serious convincing for investors to return to Venezuela, Ben Cahill writes in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
January 3, 2026 at 4:09 PM
Most reserves could be untapped for years, given how poorly PdVSA has managed things. But for US producers, the long-run benefit is that these are operationally-cheap barrels (compared to shale).
Ben Cahill wrote some of this up in @barrons.com last month: www.barrons.com/articles/ven...
Ben Cahill wrote some of this up in @barrons.com last month: www.barrons.com/articles/ven...
Is fentanyl the new WMD?
January 3, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Is fentanyl the new WMD?