Oliver Strijbis
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ostrijbis.bsky.social
Oliver Strijbis
@ostrijbis.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at Franklin University Switzerland; Prediction markets; Live forecasts on 50plus1.ch; Forecast Brew newsletter
Our new forecast brew is out! Sing up to be briefed on #geopolitics and technology from #predictionmarkets and #polls. (It’s free)
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | nov 14th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
NEW: Jeffrey Epstein said in emails that he had been advising the Russian government on how to deal with Donald Trump, one of several cases in which he wielded his connections to try to influence the course of foreign affairs. w @nahaltoosi

www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 12, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
Jeffrey Epstein said Trump was worse than gross. Jeffrey Epstein.
November 12, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Sollten Umfragen vor Abstimmungen verboten werden? Bei Watson durfte ich dazu Stellung beziehen.
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
JSVP-Fiechter fordert wegen der Swisscom neue Abstimmung – so reagiert ein Politologe
Die Schweiz wird eine digitale ID erhalten. Das hat das Stimmvolk am Sonntag knapp entschieden. Doch die Gegner fordern eine zweite Abstimmung.
www.watson.ch
September 28, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Nach den letzten Umfragen ist klar, dass die #eID höchstwahrscheinlich angenommen wird. Irgendwo zwischen 50% und 60% Ja-Stimmen dürften es sein. Genau so wie es mein Prognosemarkt schon vor Wochen vorhergesagt hat.
Die Live-Vorhersagen gibt es auf www.50plus1.ch
September 18, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Bei Nau durfte ich heute zu einem heiklen Thema meinen Kommentar abgeben. 🇮🇱🇵🇸🪧👮
www.nau.ch/news/schweiz...
Zürcher Polizei begleitet Israel-Demo mit Riesen-Aufgebot | Nau.ch
Ein stiller Marsch in Zürich gegen Antisemitismus – und ein riesiges Polizeiaufgebot: Was hinter den massiven Sicherheitsvorkehrungen von gestern Abend steckt.
www.nau.ch
September 18, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Es wird knapp beim #Eigenmietwert! Basierend auf den Rohdaten meines Prognosemarktes habe ich eine Punktschätzung berechnet. Und sie zielt recht genau auf 50%. Hier gehts zu den Live-Rohdaten: www.50plus1.ch
#Abst25 #CHVote #Vorhersage #Prognosemarkt
August 28, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
I am looking for a PhD student in Comparative Politics @powimz.bsky.social. My research focuses on political (in-)equality, representation, and responsiveness. I would be grateful if you could help to spread the word.
stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de#/jgu/job/49637
stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de
August 7, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Wieviele 1.Augustreden mit Lobliedern auf die Unabhängigkeit der Schweiz von der EU werden jetzt noch umgeschrieben? #Trump #Zölle #39% #Schweiz
August 1, 2025 at 7:36 AM
🎆 Keine 1.-August-Rede, aber immerhin Tomaten-Mozzarella-Salat 🥗, Hazel Brugger 🎭 und die grosse Frage: Wer sind wir eigentlich, wir Schweizer? 🇨🇭

🎧 Hier mein Interview mit dem Wissenschaftspodcast „Durchblick“! (Schweizerdeutsch)

open.spotify.com/episode/6HHs...
1. August-Feier: Warum nicht alle in der Schweiz Nationalstolz empfinden
Durchblick – der tägliche Wissenschaftspodcast · Episode
open.spotify.com
July 31, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
I'm hiring another postdoc (research-focused, for almost 5 years) for my @erc.europa.eu project on the educational cleavage!
I'm looking for someone with strong quantitative text-analysis skills (e.g. #NLP, #LLM, etc.) to study the role of political actors in cleavage formation.
July 25, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
Small paid opportunity for a PhD student:

I had a guest lecture fall through *next week* on a summer program I'm teaching and would love a mid-late stage PhD to talk about their work and grad study.

Any topic re European city politics and/or migration. Virtual is assumed, but in-person possible.
July 23, 2025 at 11:53 AM
This week’s Forecast Brew is out!
We break down what prediction markets and forecasting tournaments are saying about:
🇺🇸 Elon Musk’s America Party
🚫 US sanctions against Russia
🤖 Mass production of humanoid robots
🦟 The global fight against malaria
#geopolitics
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | july 10th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
July 10, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
📣 Call for Applications 📣

3-year Postdoc position in Berlin 🚀

Join our Comparative Political Behavior Group at @humboldtuni.bsky.social & the @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social

Great people, great projects, great city – come work with us!

🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2025
July 9, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Today’s Forecast Brew is out!
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Is the Iran–Israel War Nearing Its End?
🇮🇷🇺🇸 US–Iran Nuclear Deal Despite Everything?
🇮🇷 Decreasing Odds for Regime Change in Iran
🇪🇸 Will Pedro Sánchez’s Government Hold?
🤖🚕 Tesla’s Robotaxi Closer to Launch?
#Geopolitics #Forecasting
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | june 26th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
June 26, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
❗ The 𝘞𝘡𝘉 𝘉𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯 (@wzb.bsky.social‬) establishes a 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 for the 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 and is looking for its future 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 ❗

📣 Let all the excellent democracy researchers out there know! ⁣

wzb.eu/en/jobs/dire...

#Polisky
@epsanet.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @apsa.bsky.social
Director for the study of democracy
The Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB Berlin Social Science Center) is Germany’s leading non-university research institute for fundamental social science research, with a...
wzb.eu
June 19, 2025 at 10:21 AM
This week's Forecast Brew:
🔥 U.S. on the brink of major conflict?
🕌 Historic shake-up of Iran’s leadership?
🇺🇸 Will protests push presidential powers to the limit?
👀 Who’s leading the race for 2028?
🤖 Nuclear stability in the age of superintelligent AI?
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | june 19th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
June 19, 2025 at 3:07 PM
📢 Two weeks left to apply! 🎓
#phd #politics #research #jobs
🎓 Want to do a PhD at an American university in a stable democracy?

📍 Join me at Franklin University Switzerland!
🧠 4-year fully-funded PhD position in my SNF project DIVIDE
🔬 At least 80% working time on research
💰 Salary: 47k–50k CHF annually

👉 More infos here:
www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/42...
Franklin University Switzerland hiring PhD Student (2 positions) in Sorengo, Ticino, Switzerland | LinkedIn
Posted 7:08:23 AM. Franklin University Switzerland…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.
www.linkedin.com
June 17, 2025 at 4:50 PM
🚨 This week's Forecast Brew 🚨
👀 Tensions between Trump & Musk
🕊️ Ceasefire hopes in Israel-Hamas conflict
🔥 Another Israeli strike on Yemen?
🇬🇧 UK PM Keir Starmer faces internal pressure
🇺🇸 Does the Senate look redder than ever?
#Geopolitics #PredictionMarkets #Forecasting
shorturl.at/8VNnf
Forecast Brew | june 4th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
June 4, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices!

Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...

Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior
2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices
www.kuleuven.be
June 3, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Jetzt ist klar, dass es keinen Vorschlag zur Halbierungsinitiative geben wird. Bei nau durfte ich meine Einschätzung zur Chance der Initiative geben.

www.nau.ch/politik/bund...
SRG-Initianten zeigen sich optimistisch – zurecht? | Nau.ch
SVP-Nationalrat Benjamin Fischer ist überzeugt, dass die Senkung der Serafe-Gebühr im Volk eine Mehrheit finden kann. Ein Politologe schätzt die Chancen ein.
www.nau.ch
June 3, 2025 at 4:31 PM
📺🎤🇨🇭🗳️🌍
Why is there no right to vote for foreigners in most Swiss cantons? I was allowed to give my opinion on Swiss evening news. Spoiler: I think it is direct democracy + preference for citizenship rights only with naturalization.
#SwissPolitics #VotingRights #Inclusion
www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...
«Brennpunkt Demokratie»: Ausländerstimmrecht in der Schweiz - Tagesschau - Play SRF
Ungefähr ein Viertel der in der Schweiz lebenden Menschen sind Ausländerinnen und Ausländer. Auch ohne Schweizer Pass interessieren sie sich für die Landespolitik. Allerdings können sie nur beschränkt...
www.srf.ch
May 30, 2025 at 7:54 PM