Oliver Strijbis
@ostrijbis.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at Franklin University Switzerland; Prediction markets; Live forecasts on 50plus1.ch; Forecast Brew newsletter
Most important ballot in years:
Switzerland to Vote on Capping Population at 10 Million www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/w...
Switzerland to Vote on Capping Population at 10 Million www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/w...
Switzerland to Vote on Capping Population at 10 Million
www.nytimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 4:37 PM
Most important ballot in years:
Switzerland to Vote on Capping Population at 10 Million www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/w...
Switzerland to Vote on Capping Population at 10 Million www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/w...
Im März 2026 stimmt die Schweiz über die #Halbierungsinitiative ab. Auf meinem Prognosemarkt rechnen die meisten aktuell mit einer Ablehnung (40-49,9% Ja). Entscheidend dürfte sein, ob die FDP die Initiative mitträgt. #abstCH #PredictionMarket
www.50plus1.ch?p=2168&previ...
www.50plus1.ch?p=2168&previ...
December 21, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Im März 2026 stimmt die Schweiz über die #Halbierungsinitiative ab. Auf meinem Prognosemarkt rechnen die meisten aktuell mit einer Ablehnung (40-49,9% Ja). Entscheidend dürfte sein, ob die FDP die Initiative mitträgt. #abstCH #PredictionMarket
www.50plus1.ch?p=2168&previ...
www.50plus1.ch?p=2168&previ...
Ich durfte ein paar Gedanken dazu äussern, weshalb die #Erbschaftssteuer der Jusos so klar gescheitert ist. Nein, es ist nicht (nur) das Kampagnenbudget. Trotzdem ist es stossend, dass die Reichen ihren Reichtum dafür einsetzen können, dass Reichtum nicht besteuert wird …
www.nau.ch/politik/bund...
www.nau.ch/politik/bund...
Ist der Kampf der Linken gegen Superreiche endgültig gescheitert? | Nau.ch
Erneut hat die Juso mit einer Initiative Schiffbruch erlitten, die besser situierte Schweizer zur Kasse gebeten hätte. Ist der Klassenkampf gescheitert?
www.nau.ch
December 2, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Ich durfte ein paar Gedanken dazu äussern, weshalb die #Erbschaftssteuer der Jusos so klar gescheitert ist. Nein, es ist nicht (nur) das Kampagnenbudget. Trotzdem ist es stossend, dass die Reichen ihren Reichtum dafür einsetzen können, dass Reichtum nicht besteuert wird …
www.nau.ch/politik/bund...
www.nau.ch/politik/bund...
Der #Erbschaftssteuer -Initiative der @jusoschweiz.bsky.social droht ein Fiasko. Dem Agenda-Setting dient sie dennoch. Hier gehts zum Artikel: www.linkedin.com/pulse/ein-ne...
Für die Live-Vorhersagen siehe www.50plus1.ch.
Für die Live-Vorhersagen siehe www.50plus1.ch.
Ein neuer Negativrekord für eine Juso-Initiative?
Am kommenden letzten Abstimmungssonntag des Jahres wird über die eidgenössische Volksinitiative „Für eine soziale Klimapolitik – steuerlich gerecht finanziert (Initiative für eine Zukunft)“ entschiede...
www.linkedin.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Der #Erbschaftssteuer -Initiative der @jusoschweiz.bsky.social droht ein Fiasko. Dem Agenda-Setting dient sie dennoch. Hier gehts zum Artikel: www.linkedin.com/pulse/ein-ne...
Für die Live-Vorhersagen siehe www.50plus1.ch.
Für die Live-Vorhersagen siehe www.50plus1.ch.
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
I'm delighted to announce that my paper "How terrorism affects support for democracy" doi.org/10.1007/s111... is now published in Public Choice.
Thanks to all my dear colleagues and friends who supported this project in whatever way over the years.😍🥳🍀
Thanks to all my dear colleagues and friends who supported this project in whatever way over the years.😍🥳🍀
November 12, 2025 at 4:02 PM
I'm delighted to announce that my paper "How terrorism affects support for democracy" doi.org/10.1007/s111... is now published in Public Choice.
Thanks to all my dear colleagues and friends who supported this project in whatever way over the years.😍🥳🍀
Thanks to all my dear colleagues and friends who supported this project in whatever way over the years.😍🥳🍀
Our new forecast brew is out! Sing up to be briefed on #geopolitics and technology from #predictionmarkets and #polls. (It’s free)
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | nov 14th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Our new forecast brew is out! Sing up to be briefed on #geopolitics and technology from #predictionmarkets and #polls. (It’s free)
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
NEW: Jeffrey Epstein said in emails that he had been advising the Russian government on how to deal with Donald Trump, one of several cases in which he wielded his connections to try to influence the course of foreign affairs. w @nahaltoosi
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 12, 2025 at 8:43 PM
NEW: Jeffrey Epstein said in emails that he had been advising the Russian government on how to deal with Donald Trump, one of several cases in which he wielded his connections to try to influence the course of foreign affairs. w @nahaltoosi
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
Jeffrey Epstein said Trump was worse than gross. Jeffrey Epstein.
November 12, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Jeffrey Epstein said Trump was worse than gross. Jeffrey Epstein.
Forecast Brew | oct 14th, 2025
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | oct 14th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Forecast Brew | oct 14th, 2025
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Sollten Umfragen vor Abstimmungen verboten werden? Bei Watson durfte ich dazu Stellung beziehen.
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
JSVP-Fiechter fordert wegen der Swisscom neue Abstimmung – so reagiert ein Politologe
Die Schweiz wird eine digitale ID erhalten. Das hat das Stimmvolk am Sonntag knapp entschieden. Doch die Gegner fordern eine zweite Abstimmung.
www.watson.ch
September 28, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Sollten Umfragen vor Abstimmungen verboten werden? Bei Watson durfte ich dazu Stellung beziehen.
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
Nach den letzten Umfragen ist klar, dass die #eID höchstwahrscheinlich angenommen wird. Irgendwo zwischen 50% und 60% Ja-Stimmen dürften es sein. Genau so wie es mein Prognosemarkt schon vor Wochen vorhergesagt hat.
Die Live-Vorhersagen gibt es auf www.50plus1.ch
Die Live-Vorhersagen gibt es auf www.50plus1.ch
September 18, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Nach den letzten Umfragen ist klar, dass die #eID höchstwahrscheinlich angenommen wird. Irgendwo zwischen 50% und 60% Ja-Stimmen dürften es sein. Genau so wie es mein Prognosemarkt schon vor Wochen vorhergesagt hat.
Die Live-Vorhersagen gibt es auf www.50plus1.ch
Die Live-Vorhersagen gibt es auf www.50plus1.ch
Bei Nau durfte ich heute zu einem heiklen Thema meinen Kommentar abgeben. 🇮🇱🇵🇸🪧👮
www.nau.ch/news/schweiz...
www.nau.ch/news/schweiz...
Zürcher Polizei begleitet Israel-Demo mit Riesen-Aufgebot | Nau.ch
Ein stiller Marsch in Zürich gegen Antisemitismus – und ein riesiges Polizeiaufgebot: Was hinter den massiven Sicherheitsvorkehrungen von gestern Abend steckt.
www.nau.ch
September 18, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Bei Nau durfte ich heute zu einem heiklen Thema meinen Kommentar abgeben. 🇮🇱🇵🇸🪧👮
www.nau.ch/news/schweiz...
www.nau.ch/news/schweiz...
Passt zur Vorhersage auf 50plus1.ch!
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
Neue Abstimmungs-Umfrage zeigt: Der Eigenmietwert steht auf der Kippe
Am 28. September 2025 stimmt die Schweiz über zwei Vorlagen ab. Nun wurden neue Umfrageergebnisse dazu veröffentlicht. Der Eigenmietwert steht auf der Kippe.
www.watson.ch
September 3, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Passt zur Vorhersage auf 50plus1.ch!
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
www.watson.ch/schweiz/abst...
Es wird knapp beim #Eigenmietwert! Basierend auf den Rohdaten meines Prognosemarktes habe ich eine Punktschätzung berechnet. Und sie zielt recht genau auf 50%. Hier gehts zu den Live-Rohdaten: www.50plus1.ch
#Abst25 #CHVote #Vorhersage #Prognosemarkt
#Abst25 #CHVote #Vorhersage #Prognosemarkt
August 28, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Es wird knapp beim #Eigenmietwert! Basierend auf den Rohdaten meines Prognosemarktes habe ich eine Punktschätzung berechnet. Und sie zielt recht genau auf 50%. Hier gehts zu den Live-Rohdaten: www.50plus1.ch
#Abst25 #CHVote #Vorhersage #Prognosemarkt
#Abst25 #CHVote #Vorhersage #Prognosemarkt
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
I am looking for a PhD student in Comparative Politics @powimz.bsky.social. My research focuses on political (in-)equality, representation, and responsiveness. I would be grateful if you could help to spread the word.
stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de#/jgu/job/49637
stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de#/jgu/job/49637
stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de
August 7, 2025 at 8:11 AM
I am looking for a PhD student in Comparative Politics @powimz.bsky.social. My research focuses on political (in-)equality, representation, and responsiveness. I would be grateful if you could help to spread the word.
stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de#/jgu/job/49637
stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de#/jgu/job/49637
🎆 Keine 1.-August-Rede, aber immerhin Tomaten-Mozzarella-Salat 🥗, Hazel Brugger 🎭 und die grosse Frage: Wer sind wir eigentlich, wir Schweizer? 🇨🇭
🎧 Hier mein Interview mit dem Wissenschaftspodcast „Durchblick“! (Schweizerdeutsch)
open.spotify.com/episode/6HHs...
🎧 Hier mein Interview mit dem Wissenschaftspodcast „Durchblick“! (Schweizerdeutsch)
open.spotify.com/episode/6HHs...
1. August-Feier: Warum nicht alle in der Schweiz Nationalstolz empfinden
Durchblick – der tägliche Wissenschaftspodcast · Episode
open.spotify.com
July 31, 2025 at 1:33 PM
🎆 Keine 1.-August-Rede, aber immerhin Tomaten-Mozzarella-Salat 🥗, Hazel Brugger 🎭 und die grosse Frage: Wer sind wir eigentlich, wir Schweizer? 🇨🇭
🎧 Hier mein Interview mit dem Wissenschaftspodcast „Durchblick“! (Schweizerdeutsch)
open.spotify.com/episode/6HHs...
🎧 Hier mein Interview mit dem Wissenschaftspodcast „Durchblick“! (Schweizerdeutsch)
open.spotify.com/episode/6HHs...
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
I'm hiring another postdoc (research-focused, for almost 5 years) for my @erc.europa.eu project on the educational cleavage!
I'm looking for someone with strong quantitative text-analysis skills (e.g. #NLP, #LLM, etc.) to study the role of political actors in cleavage formation.
I'm looking for someone with strong quantitative text-analysis skills (e.g. #NLP, #LLM, etc.) to study the role of political actors in cleavage formation.
July 25, 2025 at 12:37 PM
I'm hiring another postdoc (research-focused, for almost 5 years) for my @erc.europa.eu project on the educational cleavage!
I'm looking for someone with strong quantitative text-analysis skills (e.g. #NLP, #LLM, etc.) to study the role of political actors in cleavage formation.
I'm looking for someone with strong quantitative text-analysis skills (e.g. #NLP, #LLM, etc.) to study the role of political actors in cleavage formation.
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
Small paid opportunity for a PhD student:
I had a guest lecture fall through *next week* on a summer program I'm teaching and would love a mid-late stage PhD to talk about their work and grad study.
Any topic re European city politics and/or migration. Virtual is assumed, but in-person possible.
I had a guest lecture fall through *next week* on a summer program I'm teaching and would love a mid-late stage PhD to talk about their work and grad study.
Any topic re European city politics and/or migration. Virtual is assumed, but in-person possible.
July 23, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Small paid opportunity for a PhD student:
I had a guest lecture fall through *next week* on a summer program I'm teaching and would love a mid-late stage PhD to talk about their work and grad study.
Any topic re European city politics and/or migration. Virtual is assumed, but in-person possible.
I had a guest lecture fall through *next week* on a summer program I'm teaching and would love a mid-late stage PhD to talk about their work and grad study.
Any topic re European city politics and/or migration. Virtual is assumed, but in-person possible.
This week’s Forecast Brew is out!
We break down what prediction markets and forecasting tournaments are saying about:
🇺🇸 Elon Musk’s America Party
🚫 US sanctions against Russia
🤖 Mass production of humanoid robots
🦟 The global fight against malaria
#geopolitics
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
We break down what prediction markets and forecasting tournaments are saying about:
🇺🇸 Elon Musk’s America Party
🚫 US sanctions against Russia
🤖 Mass production of humanoid robots
🦟 The global fight against malaria
#geopolitics
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | july 10th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
July 10, 2025 at 7:05 AM
This week’s Forecast Brew is out!
We break down what prediction markets and forecasting tournaments are saying about:
🇺🇸 Elon Musk’s America Party
🚫 US sanctions against Russia
🤖 Mass production of humanoid robots
🦟 The global fight against malaria
#geopolitics
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
We break down what prediction markets and forecasting tournaments are saying about:
🇺🇸 Elon Musk’s America Party
🚫 US sanctions against Russia
🤖 Mass production of humanoid robots
🦟 The global fight against malaria
#geopolitics
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
📣 Call for Applications 📣
3-year Postdoc position in Berlin 🚀
Join our Comparative Political Behavior Group at @humboldtuni.bsky.social & the @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
Great people, great projects, great city – come work with us!
🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2025
3-year Postdoc position in Berlin 🚀
Join our Comparative Political Behavior Group at @humboldtuni.bsky.social & the @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
Great people, great projects, great city – come work with us!
🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2025
July 9, 2025 at 4:41 PM
📣 Call for Applications 📣
3-year Postdoc position in Berlin 🚀
Join our Comparative Political Behavior Group at @humboldtuni.bsky.social & the @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
Great people, great projects, great city – come work with us!
🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2025
3-year Postdoc position in Berlin 🚀
Join our Comparative Political Behavior Group at @humboldtuni.bsky.social & the @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social
Great people, great projects, great city – come work with us!
🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2025
Today’s Forecast Brew is out!
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Is the Iran–Israel War Nearing Its End?
🇮🇷🇺🇸 US–Iran Nuclear Deal Despite Everything?
🇮🇷 Decreasing Odds for Regime Change in Iran
🇪🇸 Will Pedro Sánchez’s Government Hold?
🤖🚕 Tesla’s Robotaxi Closer to Launch?
#Geopolitics #Forecasting
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Is the Iran–Israel War Nearing Its End?
🇮🇷🇺🇸 US–Iran Nuclear Deal Despite Everything?
🇮🇷 Decreasing Odds for Regime Change in Iran
🇪🇸 Will Pedro Sánchez’s Government Hold?
🤖🚕 Tesla’s Robotaxi Closer to Launch?
#Geopolitics #Forecasting
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | june 26th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
June 26, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Today’s Forecast Brew is out!
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Is the Iran–Israel War Nearing Its End?
🇮🇷🇺🇸 US–Iran Nuclear Deal Despite Everything?
🇮🇷 Decreasing Odds for Regime Change in Iran
🇪🇸 Will Pedro Sánchez’s Government Hold?
🤖🚕 Tesla’s Robotaxi Closer to Launch?
#Geopolitics #Forecasting
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Is the Iran–Israel War Nearing Its End?
🇮🇷🇺🇸 US–Iran Nuclear Deal Despite Everything?
🇮🇷 Decreasing Odds for Regime Change in Iran
🇪🇸 Will Pedro Sánchez’s Government Hold?
🤖🚕 Tesla’s Robotaxi Closer to Launch?
#Geopolitics #Forecasting
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Reposted by Oliver Strijbis
❗ The 𝘞𝘡𝘉 𝘉𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯 (@wzb.bsky.social) establishes a 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 for the 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 and is looking for its future 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 ❗
📣 Let all the excellent democracy researchers out there know!
wzb.eu/en/jobs/dire...
#Polisky
@epsanet.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @apsa.bsky.social
📣 Let all the excellent democracy researchers out there know!
wzb.eu/en/jobs/dire...
#Polisky
@epsanet.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @apsa.bsky.social
Director for the study of democracy
The Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB Berlin Social Science Center) is Germany’s leading non-university research institute for fundamental social science research, with a...
wzb.eu
June 19, 2025 at 10:21 AM
❗ The 𝘞𝘡𝘉 𝘉𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯 (@wzb.bsky.social) establishes a 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 for the 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 and is looking for its future 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 ❗
📣 Let all the excellent democracy researchers out there know!
wzb.eu/en/jobs/dire...
#Polisky
@epsanet.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @apsa.bsky.social
📣 Let all the excellent democracy researchers out there know!
wzb.eu/en/jobs/dire...
#Polisky
@epsanet.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @apsa.bsky.social
This week's Forecast Brew:
🔥 U.S. on the brink of major conflict?
🕌 Historic shake-up of Iran’s leadership?
🇺🇸 Will protests push presidential powers to the limit?
👀 Who’s leading the race for 2028?
🤖 Nuclear stability in the age of superintelligent AI?
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
🔥 U.S. on the brink of major conflict?
🕌 Historic shake-up of Iran’s leadership?
🇺🇸 Will protests push presidential powers to the limit?
👀 Who’s leading the race for 2028?
🤖 Nuclear stability in the age of superintelligent AI?
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
Forecast Brew | june 19th, 2025
Where Oliver and Guillaume explore geopolitical risks by curating predictions from forecasting tournaments and markets
open.substack.com
June 19, 2025 at 3:07 PM
This week's Forecast Brew:
🔥 U.S. on the brink of major conflict?
🕌 Historic shake-up of Iran’s leadership?
🇺🇸 Will protests push presidential powers to the limit?
👀 Who’s leading the race for 2028?
🤖 Nuclear stability in the age of superintelligent AI?
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
🔥 U.S. on the brink of major conflict?
🕌 Historic shake-up of Iran’s leadership?
🇺🇸 Will protests push presidential powers to the limit?
👀 Who’s leading the race for 2028?
🤖 Nuclear stability in the age of superintelligent AI?
open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
🎓 Want to do a PhD at an American university in a stable democracy?
📍 Join me at Franklin University Switzerland!
🧠 4-year fully-funded PhD position in my SNF project DIVIDE
🔬 At least 80% working time on research
💰 Salary: 47k–50k CHF annually
👉 More infos here:
www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/42...
📍 Join me at Franklin University Switzerland!
🧠 4-year fully-funded PhD position in my SNF project DIVIDE
🔬 At least 80% working time on research
💰 Salary: 47k–50k CHF annually
👉 More infos here:
www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/42...
Franklin University Switzerland hiring PhD Student (2 positions) in Sorengo, Ticino, Switzerland | LinkedIn
Posted 7:08:23 AM. Franklin University Switzerland…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.
www.linkedin.com
June 17, 2025 at 4:50 PM