Oren Samet
@osamet.bsky.social
Political scientist studying how oppositions challenge dictators at home and abroad. Opposition parties, authoritarianism, elections, foreign policy, Southeast Asia. Postdoc @ Stanford CDDRL orensamet.com
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Oren Samet
@osamet.bsky.social
· May 27
America Still Has a ‘Values-Based’ Foreign Policy
It’s increasingly difficult to understand Trump’s foreign policy without an ideological lens.
foreignpolicy.com
Excited to share my new piece just out in @foreignpolicy.com:
We keep hearing Trump’s foreign policy abandoned “values” for raw interests. But that’s not quite right.
It still talks about “freedom” and “shared values” - just repurposed to serve a new agenda.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
🧵 1/
We keep hearing Trump’s foreign policy abandoned “values” for raw interests. But that’s not quite right.
It still talks about “freedom” and “shared values” - just repurposed to serve a new agenda.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
🧵 1/
US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump threatens to cut US aid to Argentina if Milei loses election
US president says ‘we will not be generous’ if leader fails to win key midterms after promising $20bn to prop up struggling economy
www.theguardian.com
October 14, 2025 at 10:48 PM
US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
There is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... either under your name (as I did) or anonymously.
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
September 28, 2025 at 3:57 PM
There is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... either under your name (as I did) or anonymously.
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions"
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
Trump-pledged support for Argentina stirs anger among Republicans
Powerful agriculture groups and their Republican allies in Congress are sounding alarms about the deal.
www.politico.com
September 26, 2025 at 2:36 AM
"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions"
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…
Either the authoritarianism requires total opposition now, or this, but you can't have both. You need to choose.
I totally agree that "Stop Acting Like This Is Normal" is the right approach. But then what is this? 🤷♂️
www.abundancedc.org/speakers
www.abundancedc.org/speakers
September 9, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…
One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:
Trump Administration Quietly Seeks to Build National Voter Roll
www.nytimes.com
September 9, 2025 at 5:38 PM
One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:
Reposted by Oren Samet
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
Acting Head of State Hun Sen has promulgated the amendments to the Nationality Law. The amendments allow revocation of Cambodian citizenship from dual nationals and citizens deemed likely to obtain another nationality or foreign protection.
September 6, 2025 at 4:42 PM
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary…
There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
The biggest analytical weakness of Americans in trying to understand the current moment is that their powers of analogy begin and end with US history. The idea that something qualitatively different might be arising simply doesn’t occur to them.
September 6, 2025 at 5:10 PM
I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary…
There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
Acting Head of State Hun Sen has promulgated the amendments to the Nationality Law. The amendments allow revocation of Cambodian citizenship from dual nationals and citizens deemed likely to obtain another nationality or foreign protection.
September 6, 2025 at 4:42 PM
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
A brief 🧵 on potential implications
The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another
September 3, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another
This is likely to have significant immediate and longer term implications for democracy and human rights struggles. These numbers are pretty dramatic (although giving everything not hugely surprising)
Human rights-focused ODA will drop in proportion, by 31% through 2026; full scale of funding cuts to be felt in the next 6-12 months
September 3, 2025 at 9:14 PM
This is likely to have significant immediate and longer term implications for democracy and human rights struggles. These numbers are pretty dramatic (although giving everything not hugely surprising)
The echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
September 2, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Oren Samet
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
I can't believe the U.S. Congress is flying Nigel Farage over to tell them about freedom of expression in a hearing this week. judiciary.house.gov/committee-ac...
Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Europe’s Threat to American Speech and Innovation
judiciary.house.gov
September 1, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
I can't believe the U.S. Congress is flying Nigel Farage over to tell them about freedom of expression in a hearing this week. judiciary.house.gov/committee-ac...
Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Europe’s Threat to American Speech and Innovation
judiciary.house.gov
September 1, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
Reposted by Oren Samet
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
how would this work, exactly? let's say jon ossof wins reelection next year. who forces the state of georgia to throw out the ballots? bsky.app/profile/jmb0...
September 1, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
I have mixed feelings about this bc I have great respect for Cambodian rights defenders. But I really do not think Cambodia holds many positive lessons for the struggle for/defense of democracy
Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
NEW Democracy Atlas: Leadership isn’t confined to the political sphere — it can stem from anyone working to make a change. In our latest, we learn endurance from Cambodia’s unexpected pro-democracy leaders: https://www.ifyoucankeepit.org/p/rule-4-leadership-lives-in-everyone
September 1, 2025 at 9:09 PM
I have mixed feelings about this bc I have great respect for Cambodian rights defenders. But I really do not think Cambodia holds many positive lessons for the struggle for/defense of democracy
Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
how would this work, exactly? let's say jon ossof wins reelection next year. who forces the state of georgia to throw out the ballots? bsky.app/profile/jmb0...
September 1, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
Not just far right. It’s a hallmark of authoritarian regimes broadly
Propaganda can serve multiple purposes. Sometimes to convince, sometimes to bolster cohesion in the ruling group. And sometimes it’s a display of dominance (you *have* to believe ridiculous things because I hold the power)
Propaganda can serve multiple purposes. Sometimes to convince, sometimes to bolster cohesion in the ruling group. And sometimes it’s a display of dominance (you *have* to believe ridiculous things because I hold the power)
👇🎯 It has been said, once or twice before, that performative public lying is a hallmark of far right authoritarian parties
The lies' laughable implausibility is a feature, not a bug.
They're not trying to convince discerning, skeptical, fact-based people. They're trying to give supporters a fantasy that validates their feelings and creates a sort of loyalty test, while flaunting the absurdity in everyone else's faces.
They're not trying to convince discerning, skeptical, fact-based people. They're trying to give supporters a fantasy that validates their feelings and creates a sort of loyalty test, while flaunting the absurdity in everyone else's faces.
August 31, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Not just far right. It’s a hallmark of authoritarian regimes broadly
Propaganda can serve multiple purposes. Sometimes to convince, sometimes to bolster cohesion in the ruling group. And sometimes it’s a display of dominance (you *have* to believe ridiculous things because I hold the power)
Propaganda can serve multiple purposes. Sometimes to convince, sometimes to bolster cohesion in the ruling group. And sometimes it’s a display of dominance (you *have* to believe ridiculous things because I hold the power)
Reposted by Oren Samet
Key is that there is no perfect comparison case, and we’re probably better off learning from across cases and not over-indexing. Beyond those already mentioned, Argentina, Thailand, Venezuela, Poland, Philippines… they all provide lessons. But no single case explains our predicament or our future
August 31, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Key is that there is no perfect comparison case, and we’re probably better off learning from across cases and not over-indexing. Beyond those already mentioned, Argentina, Thailand, Venezuela, Poland, Philippines… they all provide lessons. But no single case explains our predicament or our future
Reposted by Oren Samet
This consensus is correct. But I don't think enough people have actually internalized the implications. That is, they're perfectly happy to point out that too many Dem officials don't understand this, but they haven't updated their own understanding of what this means for taking the country back.
August 30, 2025 at 8:10 PM
This consensus is correct. But I don't think enough people have actually internalized the implications. That is, they're perfectly happy to point out that too many Dem officials don't understand this, but they haven't updated their own understanding of what this means for taking the country back.
Worth noting here that Orban is currently threatened by a new opposition force, which came from his *own* coalition and largely supports his conservative policy goals. Unclear if they will ultimately take power, but there's a lesson there: sometimes you have to make ideological compromises to win
I have bad news and worse news.
The bad news: the more consolidated the authoritarian regime becomes, the harder it is to dislodge it. The opposition in Hungary finally got its act together in 2022, and formed a coalition that included far-right and far-left parties.
The bad news: the more consolidated the authoritarian regime becomes, the harder it is to dislodge it. The opposition in Hungary finally got its act together in 2022, and formed a coalition that included far-right and far-left parties.
August 30, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Worth noting here that Orban is currently threatened by a new opposition force, which came from his *own* coalition and largely supports his conservative policy goals. Unclear if they will ultimately take power, but there's a lesson there: sometimes you have to make ideological compromises to win
Another critical point here. If you believe we are operating under authoritarianism already then you have *zero* excuse to make maximalist policy demands of your coalition. The #1 priority is defeating the dictator, not getting a politician to say words that make you feel good or correct
I don't know what the correct balance is. But I do know that we need to expand the pro-democracy coalition, and I suspect that this *will* require approaches that abandon stigmatization of allies and potential allies in favor of empathy and persuasion.
August 30, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Another critical point here. If you believe we are operating under authoritarianism already then you have *zero* excuse to make maximalist policy demands of your coalition. The #1 priority is defeating the dictator, not getting a politician to say words that make you feel good or correct
Very important point in an excellent thread. If we are operating in the zone of competitive authoritarianism, winning the midterms is both important and incredibly dangerous. It could resemble a set of cases that I have written about here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
August 30, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Very important point in an excellent thread. If we are operating in the zone of competitive authoritarianism, winning the midterms is both important and incredibly dangerous. It could resemble a set of cases that I have written about here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Alarming development. A direct attack on the separation of powers, a usurpation of Congressional authority. If the Supreme Court allows this to stand, that's the whole ballgame. They're doing this to provoke a fight they expect to win www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
White House declares $4.9B in foreign aid unilaterally canceled in end-run around Congress' funding power
The administration is setting up clash with Capitol Hill over its use of the "pocket rescission."
www.politico.com
August 29, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Alarming development. A direct attack on the separation of powers, a usurpation of Congressional authority. If the Supreme Court allows this to stand, that's the whole ballgame. They're doing this to provoke a fight they expect to win www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
Reposted by Oren Samet
I've added my comment. I'm not sure if it will change anything, but it's a small amount of effort to try
For those justifiably concerned/angry about this, there's a way to make your voices heard. Public notice and comment on this proposed rule goes through Sep 27
Go to this link and click "Submit a public comment" at the top: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
Go to this link and click "Submit a public comment" at the top: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
I know there's a lot happening today, but this is sneaking in under the radar. This proposed new rule would absolutely crush foreign PhD students, potentially making it impossible for them to enroll with any certainty of their ability to finish www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
August 28, 2025 at 2:30 PM
I've added my comment. I'm not sure if it will change anything, but it's a small amount of effort to try