Oskar Pietrewicz
@opietrewicz.bsky.social
Senior Analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Korean Peninsula, East Asia
Private opinions
Korean Peninsula, East Asia
Private opinions
Here is my brief take on the new president of South Korea.
➡️ What factors determined Lee Jae-myung's election?
➡️Who is the new president?
➡️What can the election results mean for South Korea’s domestic politics and its foreign policy?
👉 pism.pl/publications...
➡️ What factors determined Lee Jae-myung's election?
➡️Who is the new president?
➡️What can the election results mean for South Korea’s domestic politics and its foreign policy?
👉 pism.pl/publications...
June 7, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Here is my brief take on the new president of South Korea.
➡️ What factors determined Lee Jae-myung's election?
➡️Who is the new president?
➡️What can the election results mean for South Korea’s domestic politics and its foreign policy?
👉 pism.pl/publications...
➡️ What factors determined Lee Jae-myung's election?
➡️Who is the new president?
➡️What can the election results mean for South Korea’s domestic politics and its foreign policy?
👉 pism.pl/publications...
Many challenges and uncertainties lie ahead for 🇺🇸🇰🇵 relations.
➡️ unclear vision of 🇺🇸 policy towards the DPRK
➡️ 🇰🇵 has been strengthened by its alliance with Russia
➡️ the global and regional situation is much more complicated than in 2018
Find out more in my recent analysis 👇
pism.pl/publications...
➡️ unclear vision of 🇺🇸 policy towards the DPRK
➡️ 🇰🇵 has been strengthened by its alliance with Russia
➡️ the global and regional situation is much more complicated than in 2018
Find out more in my recent analysis 👇
pism.pl/publications...
May 21, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Many challenges and uncertainties lie ahead for 🇺🇸🇰🇵 relations.
➡️ unclear vision of 🇺🇸 policy towards the DPRK
➡️ 🇰🇵 has been strengthened by its alliance with Russia
➡️ the global and regional situation is much more complicated than in 2018
Find out more in my recent analysis 👇
pism.pl/publications...
➡️ unclear vision of 🇺🇸 policy towards the DPRK
➡️ 🇰🇵 has been strengthened by its alliance with Russia
➡️ the global and regional situation is much more complicated than in 2018
Find out more in my recent analysis 👇
pism.pl/publications...
My short take on the decision made by South Korea’s Constitutional Court, which upheld the parliament’s decision to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol for illegally declaring martial law last December.
pism.pl/publications...
pism.pl/publications...
April 5, 2025 at 8:01 PM
My short take on the decision made by South Korea’s Constitutional Court, which upheld the parliament’s decision to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol for illegally declaring martial law last December.
pism.pl/publications...
pism.pl/publications...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
If we take opposition to Yoon's impeachment as a measure of authoritarian political attitudes, there are some observations we can make and hypotheses, some competing, that we can consider. 👇
With Yoon's impeachment ruling due this Friday, here's Gallup Korea polling data from the 4th week of March.
Support/oppose impeachment-ALL: 60/34 (+26)
-progressives: 93/5 (+88)
-conservatives: 27/69 (-42)
-18-29: 62/26 (+36)
-70+: 35/58 (-23)
-18-29 males: 52/36 (+16)
-18-29 females: 72/15 (+57)
Support/oppose impeachment-ALL: 60/34 (+26)
-progressives: 93/5 (+88)
-conservatives: 27/69 (-42)
-18-29: 62/26 (+36)
-70+: 35/58 (-23)
-18-29 males: 52/36 (+16)
-18-29 females: 72/15 (+57)
April 1, 2025 at 9:04 AM
If we take opposition to Yoon's impeachment as a measure of authoritarian political attitudes, there are some observations we can make and hypotheses, some competing, that we can consider. 👇
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
S. Korea and US should initiate concrete, practical — and largely nonexternal — discussions on the intractable, long-avoided question of their alliance’s role in a Taiwan contingency, moving beyond rhetorical alignment on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
www.koreaherald.com/article/1045...
www.koreaherald.com/article/1045...
South Korea, US should go beyond rhetoric, get real on Taiwan contingency: report
Allies should clarify expectations for role of alliance in event of US-China conflict South Korea and the United States should initiate concrete, practical — and largely nonexternal — discussions on t...
www.koreaherald.com
April 1, 2025 at 9:25 AM
S. Korea and US should initiate concrete, practical — and largely nonexternal — discussions on the intractable, long-avoided question of their alliance’s role in a Taiwan contingency, moving beyond rhetorical alignment on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
www.koreaherald.com/article/1045...
www.koreaherald.com/article/1045...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Spring issue of Global Asia has just dropped, with a cover package on Martial Law in South Korea-- a topic that should get more global attention IMHO
www.globalasia.org/latest-issue...
www.globalasia.org/latest-issue...
March 26, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Spring issue of Global Asia has just dropped, with a cover package on Martial Law in South Korea-- a topic that should get more global attention IMHO
www.globalasia.org/latest-issue...
www.globalasia.org/latest-issue...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
South Koreans and Europeans agree that Russia is a threat, Ukraine needs support and that the new US administration is trouble, writes @alexlipke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
Read his new commentary:
Read his new commentary:
Polls, peril and partnership: Why South Korea and the EU are natural allies
South Koreans and Europeans agree that Russia is a threat, Ukraine needs support and that the new US administration is trouble. As Trump shakes the global security order, their shared concerns could…
buff.ly
March 20, 2025 at 5:00 PM
South Koreans and Europeans agree that Russia is a threat, Ukraine needs support and that the new US administration is trouble, writes @alexlipke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
Read his new commentary:
Read his new commentary:
For example, China can use an economic carrot to keep North Korea within its sphere of influence. The North Korean authorities are happy to eat this carrot, but they will not allow Chinese influence to turn into control.
March 10, 2025 at 7:34 PM
For example, China can use an economic carrot to keep North Korea within its sphere of influence. The North Korean authorities are happy to eat this carrot, but they will not allow Chinese influence to turn into control.
Of course, an important piece of the puzzle remains China, which will not be passive in this situation. The experience of the 2018-2019 U.S.-DPRK talks shows that China may intensify contacts with North Korea for fear of being left out.
March 10, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Of course, an important piece of the puzzle remains China, which will not be passive in this situation. The experience of the 2018-2019 U.S.-DPRK talks shows that China may intensify contacts with North Korea for fear of being left out.
with the Americans again, hoping that this will lead, for example, to a weakening of the U.S. alliance with South Korea. Would they use Russian support to achieve this? Absolutely. Would they let themselves be led by the Russians? Definitely not.
March 10, 2025 at 7:31 PM
with the Americans again, hoping that this will lead, for example, to a weakening of the U.S. alliance with South Korea. Would they use Russian support to achieve this? Absolutely. Would they let themselves be led by the Russians? Definitely not.
diminish with the rebuilding of the Russian military. Moreover, I believe that both the Koreans and the Russians are aware that, depending on how the situation evolves, they may trade themselves in talks with the U.S. I think that at some point the Koreans will try to negotiate
March 10, 2025 at 7:30 PM
diminish with the rebuilding of the Russian military. Moreover, I believe that both the Koreans and the Russians are aware that, depending on how the situation evolves, they may trade themselves in talks with the U.S. I think that at some point the Koreans will try to negotiate
the U.S.; 2) demand more political, economic, military-technological support from Russia in exchange for military support. However, there is no certainty that such close cooperation between Russia and North Korea will continue after the war in Ukraine - the DPRK’s importance may
March 10, 2025 at 7:30 PM
the U.S.; 2) demand more political, economic, military-technological support from Russia in exchange for military support. However, there is no certainty that such close cooperation between Russia and North Korea will continue after the war in Ukraine - the DPRK’s importance may
remain passive and fully align itself with the Russian idea. But the fact remains that it has been reaping tangible benefits from cooperation with Russia since 2022. As long as it can, North Korea will 1) use Russian support to strengthen its position in possible talks with
March 10, 2025 at 7:30 PM
remain passive and fully align itself with the Russian idea. But the fact remains that it has been reaping tangible benefits from cooperation with Russia since 2022. As long as it can, North Korea will 1) use Russian support to strengthen its position in possible talks with
From Russia’s point of view, it would be necessary to convince the U.S. that its talks with the DPRK would help the process of weaning partners/allies away from China.
I do not believe that North Korea coordinates all its actions with Russia. I also doubt that North Korea will
I do not believe that North Korea coordinates all its actions with Russia. I also doubt that North Korea will
March 10, 2025 at 7:30 PM
From Russia’s point of view, it would be necessary to convince the U.S. that its talks with the DPRK would help the process of weaning partners/allies away from China.
I do not believe that North Korea coordinates all its actions with Russia. I also doubt that North Korea will
I do not believe that North Korea coordinates all its actions with Russia. I also doubt that North Korea will
development of a new security architecture in Northeast Asia - initially as a state guaranteeing, for example, a nuclear and missile arms control agreement between the U.S. and the DPRK. If I were Russia, I would adapt my proposal to the American idea of a 'reverse Nixon'.
March 10, 2025 at 7:29 PM
development of a new security architecture in Northeast Asia - initially as a state guaranteeing, for example, a nuclear and missile arms control agreement between the U.S. and the DPRK. If I were Russia, I would adapt my proposal to the American idea of a 'reverse Nixon'.
Thanks to the increased cooperation over the past three years, Russia can present itself to the U.S. as an important player on the Korean Peninsula, ready to bring North Korea to the negotiating table and play an indirect role in it. And perhaps be willing to participate in the
March 10, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Thanks to the increased cooperation over the past three years, Russia can present itself to the U.S. as an important player on the Korean Peninsula, ready to bring North Korea to the negotiating table and play an indirect role in it. And perhaps be willing to participate in the
with the U.S., and then to offer to withdraw North Korean forces.
Second, the Russian proposal to engage in negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK. The Russian ambassador in Pyongyang has already supported the idea of resuming talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.
Second, the Russian proposal to engage in negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK. The Russian ambassador in Pyongyang has already supported the idea of resuming talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.
March 10, 2025 at 7:29 PM
with the U.S., and then to offer to withdraw North Korean forces.
Second, the Russian proposal to engage in negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK. The Russian ambassador in Pyongyang has already supported the idea of resuming talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.
Second, the Russian proposal to engage in negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK. The Russian ambassador in Pyongyang has already supported the idea of resuming talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.
North Korean troops are crucial to the success of the Russian counter-offensive in the Kursk Oblast. It would therefore be in Russia’s interest first to retake the Kursk Oblast with the support of North Korean troops, which would strengthen Russia’s negotiating position in talks
March 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
North Korean troops are crucial to the success of the Russian counter-offensive in the Kursk Oblast. It would therefore be in Russia’s interest first to retake the Kursk Oblast with the support of North Korean troops, which would strengthen Russia’s negotiating position in talks
First, Russia’s proposal to withdraw North Korean troops from the frontline as a concession. This would require an explicit acknowledgement that such forces are fighting at all, which Russia and North Korea have so far denied. At the moment, such a proposal seems unlikely because
March 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
First, Russia’s proposal to withdraw North Korean troops from the frontline as a concession. This would require an explicit acknowledgement that such forces are fighting at all, which Russia and North Korea have so far denied. At the moment, such a proposal seems unlikely because
North Korea is playing a bigger role in Russia’s war on Ukraine than one might think. And it may turn out to be one of the pieces in the larger puzzle of U.S.-Russian talks on a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. I would consider several possibilities 🧵🇰🇵🇷🇺🇺🇸
March 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
North Korea is playing a bigger role in Russia’s war on Ukraine than one might think. And it may turn out to be one of the pieces in the larger puzzle of U.S.-Russian talks on a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. I would consider several possibilities 🧵🇰🇵🇷🇺🇺🇸
February 12, 2025 at 7:39 PM
In my recent analysis for the Polish Institute of International Affairs, I argue that the evolution of 🇰🇷 domestic situation, the definition of the terms of the alliance, 🇰🇷 stance on 🇺🇸🇨🇳 rivalry, and the coordination of policies towards 🇰🇵 will be crucial for South Korea’s alliance with the U.S. 👇
February 12, 2025 at 7:39 PM
In my recent analysis for the Polish Institute of International Affairs, I argue that the evolution of 🇰🇷 domestic situation, the definition of the terms of the alliance, 🇰🇷 stance on 🇺🇸🇨🇳 rivalry, and the coordination of policies towards 🇰🇵 will be crucial for South Korea’s alliance with the U.S. 👇
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Ishiba’s first meeting with Trump is over, and, at first glance, it appears that Ishiba returns to Tokyo with what he needed. Some initial thoughts here:
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
When Ishiba met Trump
Some initial thoughts on their first summit
open.substack.com
February 7, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Ishiba’s first meeting with Trump is over, and, at first glance, it appears that Ishiba returns to Tokyo with what he needed. Some initial thoughts here:
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
1/ I've obtained the 101-page indictment against President Yoon Suk Yeol detailing the December 3, 2024 martial law incident. He's charged with leading an insurrection (내란우두머리).
Here's a breakdown of the allegations:
Here's a breakdown of the allegations:
According to 101-page indictment obtained by lawmakers, orders were given at the presidential office just before martial law declaration on Dec 3. Lee then called police chief at 11:34pm and fire agency chief at 11:37pm to coordinate planned media shutdown.
www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR2025...
www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR2025...
尹, 계엄선포 전후 이상민에 "언론사 봉쇄하고 단전·단수" 지시 | 연합뉴스
(서울=연합뉴스) 이보배 권희원 이민영 기자 = 윤석열 대통령이 '12·3 비상계엄' 선포 전후 언론사들을 봉쇄하고 소방청을 통해 단전·단수를 ...
www.yna.co.kr
February 6, 2025 at 2:19 PM
1/ I've obtained the 101-page indictment against President Yoon Suk Yeol detailing the December 3, 2024 martial law incident. He's charged with leading an insurrection (내란우두머리).
Here's a breakdown of the allegations:
Here's a breakdown of the allegations: