Ole Peters
@opeters.bsky.social
Physicist, Ergodicity Economics @london-math-lab.bsky.social and @sfiscience.bsky.social
Newsletter: ergodicityeconomics.eo.page/4ct3k
Blog: http://ergodicityeconomics.com
Newsletter: ergodicityeconomics.eo.page/4ct3k
Blog: http://ergodicityeconomics.com
Pinned
Ole Peters
@opeters.bsky.social
· May 20
1/thread🧵
Almost 20 years ago, I started thinking about the ergodicity problem in the context of economics. That turned out to be surprisingly fruitful, and now there's a book about it.
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
Almost 20 years ago, I started thinking about the ergodicity problem in the context of economics. That turned out to be surprisingly fruitful, and now there's a book about it.
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
The story that orthodox economics is as good as a formal theory of human behavior can ever be has been holding economic theory back for a long time.
I know one formal theory that’s better than the orthodoxy.
I know one formal theory that’s better than the orthodoxy.
Richard Thaler doesn't think there is any progress to make on economic theory. jamesking.io/2025/11/10/r...
Quoting Richard Thaler | James King
jamesking.io
November 13, 2025 at 2:15 PM
The story that orthodox economics is as good as a formal theory of human behavior can ever be has been holding economic theory back for a long time.
I know one formal theory that’s better than the orthodoxy.
I know one formal theory that’s better than the orthodoxy.
Is there an age limit to apply?
Deadline Dec 1!
Postdoc job! I expect to have an opening at Johns Hopkins for a postdoctoral researcher working somewhere in the broad realms of physics, philosophy, and complexity. Apply at Academic Jobs Online:
academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/30496
academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/30496
October 28, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Is there an age limit to apply?
This book has been such a delight!
By my friend and mentor Reuben Hersh, about his friend and mentor Peter Lax. Reading it feels like listening to Reuben speak about his love of mathematics and his respect, friendship, and admiration for Peter.
By my friend and mentor Reuben Hersh, about his friend and mentor Peter Lax. Reading it feels like listening to Reuben speak about his love of mathematics and his respect, friendship, and admiration for Peter.
October 1, 2025 at 3:50 PM
This book has been such a delight!
By my friend and mentor Reuben Hersh, about his friend and mentor Peter Lax. Reading it feels like listening to Reuben speak about his love of mathematics and his respect, friendship, and admiration for Peter.
By my friend and mentor Reuben Hersh, about his friend and mentor Peter Lax. Reading it feels like listening to Reuben speak about his love of mathematics and his respect, friendship, and admiration for Peter.
I was listening to your podcast, @seanmcarroll.bsky.social and @pettertornberg.com. I always thought of the Schelling model as some sort of "zero-temperature Ising thing." But this time I asked chatGPT, and the exact mapping is worked out here:
journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
Interesting for you?
journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
Interesting for you?
Schelling segregation in an open city: A kinetically constrained Blume-Emery-Griffiths spin-1 system
In the 70s Schelling introduced a multiagent model to describe the segregation dynamics that may occur with individuals having only weak preferences for ``similar'' neighbors. Recently variants of thi...
journals.aps.org
October 1, 2025 at 11:58 AM
I was listening to your podcast, @seanmcarroll.bsky.social and @pettertornberg.com. I always thought of the Schelling model as some sort of "zero-temperature Ising thing." But this time I asked chatGPT, and the exact mapping is worked out here:
journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
Interesting for you?
journals.aps.org/pre/abstract...
Interesting for you?
It makes me exceedingly happy that there are people all around the world who enjoy this kind of gentle slow meditation. Social-media scatter brain be damned.
And if one of them is Dave Bacon, you know it's good stuff!
And if one of them is Dave Bacon, you know it's good stuff!
Look what showed up today @opeters.bsky.social non-trivial thoughts beside the non-trivial trefoil knot
June 25, 2025 at 8:59 AM
It makes me exceedingly happy that there are people all around the world who enjoy this kind of gentle slow meditation. Social-media scatter brain be damned.
And if one of them is Dave Bacon, you know it's good stuff!
And if one of them is Dave Bacon, you know it's good stuff!
1/6
How can I put this?
"Expected-utility maximizers don't maximize utility."
Why? Because utility is not usually an ergodic quantity in the mathematical models used by economists, and maximizing its expected value doesn't mean much in the real world.
How can I put this?
"Expected-utility maximizers don't maximize utility."
Why? Because utility is not usually an ergodic quantity in the mathematical models used by economists, and maximizing its expected value doesn't mean much in the real world.
May 28, 2025 at 12:13 PM
1/6
How can I put this?
"Expected-utility maximizers don't maximize utility."
Why? Because utility is not usually an ergodic quantity in the mathematical models used by economists, and maximizing its expected value doesn't mean much in the real world.
How can I put this?
"Expected-utility maximizers don't maximize utility."
Why? Because utility is not usually an ergodic quantity in the mathematical models used by economists, and maximizing its expected value doesn't mean much in the real world.
If you're interested in studying uncertainty at Ph.D. level, this set of scholarships may be for you:
www.zeit-stiftung.de/en/topics/de...
www.zeit-stiftung.de/en/topics/de...
Apply now: Ph.D. Scholarship Program
Whether it's due to the climate crisis, wars, political polarization, inflation or global health crises: Increasing uncertainty about the future has become a defining feature of our time. The ZEIT STI...
www.zeit-stiftung.de
May 28, 2025 at 9:46 AM
If you're interested in studying uncertainty at Ph.D. level, this set of scholarships may be for you:
www.zeit-stiftung.de/en/topics/de...
www.zeit-stiftung.de/en/topics/de...
1/thread🧵
Almost 20 years ago, I started thinking about the ergodicity problem in the context of economics. That turned out to be surprisingly fruitful, and now there's a book about it.
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
Almost 20 years ago, I started thinking about the ergodicity problem in the context of economics. That turned out to be surprisingly fruitful, and now there's a book about it.
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
May 20, 2025 at 11:32 AM
1/thread🧵
Almost 20 years ago, I started thinking about the ergodicity problem in the context of economics. That turned out to be surprisingly fruitful, and now there's a book about it.
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
Almost 20 years ago, I started thinking about the ergodicity problem in the context of economics. That turned out to be surprisingly fruitful, and now there's a book about it.
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
Sending this straight to the publisher.
May 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Sending this straight to the publisher.
Happy to announce that
"An Introduction to Ergodicity Economics"
can now be ordered.
Here:
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
"An Introduction to Ergodicity Economics"
can now be ordered.
Here:
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
May 6, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Happy to announce that
"An Introduction to Ergodicity Economics"
can now be ordered.
Here:
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
"An Introduction to Ergodicity Economics"
can now be ordered.
Here:
ergodicityeconomics.com/publications/
So there's this country.
It produces money, electronically. Then sends that money to other countries, and in return receives all the goods its citizens might want. Just for sending an electronic notification that it's created more money.
And it doesn't like that.
It produces money, electronically. Then sends that money to other countries, and in return receives all the goods its citizens might want. Just for sending an electronic notification that it's created more money.
And it doesn't like that.
April 3, 2025 at 10:56 AM
So there's this country.
It produces money, electronically. Then sends that money to other countries, and in return receives all the goods its citizens might want. Just for sending an electronic notification that it's created more money.
And it doesn't like that.
It produces money, electronically. Then sends that money to other countries, and in return receives all the goods its citizens might want. Just for sending an electronic notification that it's created more money.
And it doesn't like that.
For those of you who couldn't join us at our in-person EE2025 conference in Cascais, I've written up a dinner conversation I had with Gerd Gigerenzer and put it up on LinkedIn.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/ergodi...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/ergodi...
March 27, 2025 at 1:43 PM
For those of you who couldn't join us at our in-person EE2025 conference in Cascais, I've written up a dinner conversation I had with Gerd Gigerenzer and put it up on LinkedIn.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/ergodi...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/ergodi...
I don't believe in rushing things, but 10 years into the writing of the EE textbook, it's good to see the cover is ready.
If you want a ping when it's ready to order (very soon), sign up to our EE mailing list at ergodicityeconomics.eo.page/4ct3k
If you want a ping when it's ready to order (very soon), sign up to our EE mailing list at ergodicityeconomics.eo.page/4ct3k
February 27, 2025 at 5:44 PM
I don't believe in rushing things, but 10 years into the writing of the EE textbook, it's good to see the cover is ready.
If you want a ping when it's ready to order (very soon), sign up to our EE mailing list at ergodicityeconomics.eo.page/4ct3k
If you want a ping when it's ready to order (very soon), sign up to our EE mailing list at ergodicityeconomics.eo.page/4ct3k
1/2
I would love a deep dive on the clock ambiguity. If I understand it correctly, then there's a fascinating parallel to expected-utility theory.
You can solve certain problems in economics by picking a non-linear utility function. But we've found that that corresponds to assuming (or generating)..
I would love a deep dive on the clock ambiguity. If I understand it correctly, then there's a fascinating parallel to expected-utility theory.
You can solve certain problems in economics by picking a non-linear utility function. But we've found that that corresponds to assuming (or generating)..
Mindscape 300 | Solo: Does Time Exist? (Spoiler: yes, it does.) Celebrating another click of the podcast odometer with a solo episode, talking about quantum mechanics, gravity, and time. #MindscapePodcast
www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025...
www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025...
February 20, 2025 at 8:22 AM
1/2
I would love a deep dive on the clock ambiguity. If I understand it correctly, then there's a fascinating parallel to expected-utility theory.
You can solve certain problems in economics by picking a non-linear utility function. But we've found that that corresponds to assuming (or generating)..
I would love a deep dive on the clock ambiguity. If I understand it correctly, then there's a fascinating parallel to expected-utility theory.
You can solve certain problems in economics by picking a non-linear utility function. But we've found that that corresponds to assuming (or generating)..
Point of view:
Expected-utility theory has been the dominant model of economic decision making for 300 years.
That does not mean it's a good model. It's such a convoluted disaster of formal errors, misunderstandings, failed corrections etc. that critics just give up.
Expected-utility theory has been the dominant model of economic decision making for 300 years.
That does not mean it's a good model. It's such a convoluted disaster of formal errors, misunderstandings, failed corrections etc. that critics just give up.
February 19, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Point of view:
Expected-utility theory has been the dominant model of economic decision making for 300 years.
That does not mean it's a good model. It's such a convoluted disaster of formal errors, misunderstandings, failed corrections etc. that critics just give up.
Expected-utility theory has been the dominant model of economic decision making for 300 years.
That does not mean it's a good model. It's such a convoluted disaster of formal errors, misunderstandings, failed corrections etc. that critics just give up.
Conundrum:
Stock markets generate prices every few seconds to accurately reflect the rapid changes in the fortunes of businesses.
But the fastest-paced industries, tech/biotech, barely use public markets. It's more VC, and valuations and trades happen ~once per year.
fast pace -> slow valuation?
Stock markets generate prices every few seconds to accurately reflect the rapid changes in the fortunes of businesses.
But the fastest-paced industries, tech/biotech, barely use public markets. It's more VC, and valuations and trades happen ~once per year.
fast pace -> slow valuation?
February 14, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Conundrum:
Stock markets generate prices every few seconds to accurately reflect the rapid changes in the fortunes of businesses.
But the fastest-paced industries, tech/biotech, barely use public markets. It's more VC, and valuations and trades happen ~once per year.
fast pace -> slow valuation?
Stock markets generate prices every few seconds to accurately reflect the rapid changes in the fortunes of businesses.
But the fastest-paced industries, tech/biotech, barely use public markets. It's more VC, and valuations and trades happen ~once per year.
fast pace -> slow valuation?
Here's something fun: models indicate that in the US, average wealth is a repellor.
Good news: you just have to become wealthier than the average, and then you can sit back and watch the money come in.
Bad news: average household wealth is just above one million bucks.
Good news: you just have to become wealthier than the average, and then you can sit back and watch the money come in.
Bad news: average household wealth is just above one million bucks.
February 13, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Here's something fun: models indicate that in the US, average wealth is a repellor.
Good news: you just have to become wealthier than the average, and then you can sit back and watch the money come in.
Bad news: average household wealth is just above one million bucks.
Good news: you just have to become wealthier than the average, and then you can sit back and watch the money come in.
Bad news: average household wealth is just above one million bucks.
Jeremy Hunt said this. He is, of course, completely right. The question for me is how anyone who’s thought about capitalism for more than two minutes could ever get this wrong. It’s astonishing.
February 11, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Jeremy Hunt said this. He is, of course, completely right. The question for me is how anyone who’s thought about capitalism for more than two minutes could ever get this wrong. It’s astonishing.
Interesting etymologies in English v German.
tax -- from Latin taxere, to assess or charge (a compulsory charge)
Steuer (German word for tax) -- from stiu for "help" or "support" (supporting a community)
tax -- from Latin taxere, to assess or charge (a compulsory charge)
Steuer (German word for tax) -- from stiu for "help" or "support" (supporting a community)
February 10, 2025 at 6:17 AM
Interesting etymologies in English v German.
tax -- from Latin taxere, to assess or charge (a compulsory charge)
Steuer (German word for tax) -- from stiu for "help" or "support" (supporting a community)
tax -- from Latin taxere, to assess or charge (a compulsory charge)
Steuer (German word for tax) -- from stiu for "help" or "support" (supporting a community)
I often misread "uninformed" as "uniformed."
Has anyone else experienced this?
Has anyone else experienced this?
February 10, 2025 at 6:10 AM
I often misread "uninformed" as "uniformed."
Has anyone else experienced this?
Has anyone else experienced this?
Given that humans operate at about 80W and, if knowledgable, can produce answers at least as good as those of large language models — is there going to be an enormous efficiency revolution in AI, @melaniemitchell.bsky.social ?
January 27, 2025 at 4:04 AM
Given that humans operate at about 80W and, if knowledgable, can produce answers at least as good as those of large language models — is there going to be an enormous efficiency revolution in AI, @melaniemitchell.bsky.social ?
Serious question for anyone knowledgeable of the health system.
The UK waiting list for elective surgery is long. Couldn’t some of those elective surgeries be carried out abroad where there’s more capacity?
The UK waiting list for elective surgery is long. Couldn’t some of those elective surgeries be carried out abroad where there’s more capacity?
I follow mostly British news. Every winter, hospitals overflow and patients are treated in corridors.
Today I tuned into German news. Germany has too many hospitals and will spend EUR50bn to reduce excess capacity.
If only hospitals were more mobile…
Today I tuned into German news. Germany has too many hospitals and will spend EUR50bn to reduce excess capacity.
If only hospitals were more mobile…
January 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Serious question for anyone knowledgeable of the health system.
The UK waiting list for elective surgery is long. Couldn’t some of those elective surgeries be carried out abroad where there’s more capacity?
The UK waiting list for elective surgery is long. Couldn’t some of those elective surgeries be carried out abroad where there’s more capacity?
I follow mostly British news. Every winter, hospitals overflow and patients are treated in corridors.
Today I tuned into German news. Germany has too many hospitals and will spend EUR50bn to reduce excess capacity.
If only hospitals were more mobile…
Today I tuned into German news. Germany has too many hospitals and will spend EUR50bn to reduce excess capacity.
If only hospitals were more mobile…
January 13, 2025 at 9:28 PM
I follow mostly British news. Every winter, hospitals overflow and patients are treated in corridors.
Today I tuned into German news. Germany has too many hospitals and will spend EUR50bn to reduce excess capacity.
If only hospitals were more mobile…
Today I tuned into German news. Germany has too many hospitals and will spend EUR50bn to reduce excess capacity.
If only hospitals were more mobile…
Nice little application of ergodicity economics to reinforcement learning, published just now.
The ‘economics’ in the name of my research program is sort of a frozen accident…
The ‘economics’ in the name of my research program is sort of a frozen accident…
January 11, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Nice little application of ergodicity economics to reinforcement learning, published just now.
The ‘economics’ in the name of my research program is sort of a frozen accident…
The ‘economics’ in the name of my research program is sort of a frozen accident…
This comment on Emanuel's book, by the 2003 Nobel Laureate in literature, makes me very happy.
Congratulations!
Congratulations!
Re my Mar 1 book, a comment from JM Coetzee
"Brief Hours and Weeks awakes many memories of Cape Town, the city of Emanuel Derman's youth and mine, as it was half a century ago. The chapter on the lonely Mrs Gold is a triumph." - J M Coetzee, Nobel Laureate
www.amazon.com/Brief-Hours-...
"Brief Hours and Weeks awakes many memories of Cape Town, the city of Emanuel Derman's youth and mine, as it was half a century ago. The chapter on the lonely Mrs Gold is a triumph." - J M Coetzee, Nobel Laureate
www.amazon.com/Brief-Hours-...
Brief Hours and Weeks: My Life as a Capetonian
Amazon.com: Brief Hours and Weeks: My Life as a Capetonian: 9781068649103: Derman, Emanuel: Books
www.amazon.com
January 7, 2025 at 3:45 PM
This comment on Emanuel's book, by the 2003 Nobel Laureate in literature, makes me very happy.
Congratulations!
Congratulations!