What is forecast-based attribution? And did climate change influence the devastating monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, summer 2022?

Find out from NCAS climate scientists @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social & @nickleach.bsky.social:

ncas.ac.uk/climate-chan...

Join us @egu.eu for our session on

Physical #ClimateRisk assessment for the #Finance and #Insurance sectors.

Solicited talk: @nickleach.bsky.social

Orals: May 1st | 8:30-10:15 | 2.17🟥

@aceglar.bsky.social @nicolaranger.bsky.social
@janasillmann.bsky.social
@iiasa.ac.at
@lamont.columbia.edu

I'm in Vienna at #EGU25 this week!

Feel free to reach out if you're also here and interested in chatting about:

• Extreme weather risk, impacts and it's attribution
• Climate stress testing in the financial sector
• What it's like to work in between academia and industry
• Anything else!

Do you have a strong background, including a PhD and publication record, in weather and climate dynamics or closely related areas? Would you like to apply your skills in an interdisciplinary research project on weather impacts on health across the globe ?

A group of us from @oxfordphysics.bsky.social reviewed the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social 2024 global climate highlights for @theconversation.com. Link to the highlights in thread.

The UK windstorm season 2024/25 has seen a fairly active start (Bert, Darragh).

In the future we expect these storms to be more frequent and intense, but by how much?

Well in a new paper, we've tried to answer this...

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

What is driving the rate of global warming (2010-2019)?
* CO2 is by far the dominant factor
* CH4 is next on the list
* Then aerosols, though uncertain value

Aerosols are important, but remember the real enemy is CO2!

njleach.github.io/2020/12/29/H...

What about acceleration?

1/

The model calibration paper for fair is now published in Geoscientific Model Development! 🎉

TLDR: how do we constrain a highly parameterised model to observational and assessed constrained ranges, with uncertainty?

gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

I tried to prepare a starter pack on climate, weather and hydrological extremes. Please let me know if you would like to be added, the more the merrier!
go.bsky.app/86zAwyH

We are excited to announce our #EGU25 session on

'Advances in physical climate risk assessment for the financial and insurance sectors.'

Abstracts:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

@iiasa.ac.at @columbiaclimate.bsky.social @eurogeosciences.bsky.social @nickleach.bsky.social

It was great to chat to @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org for this piece! Some really interesting perspectives on where attribution science is heading...