Neil Paine
@neilpaine.bsky.social
Sports data guy, writer, editor, podcaster, former FiveThirtyEight sports editor, proud Georgia Tech alum. https://neilpaine.substack.com/
I wrote today about Chloe Covell, Rayssa Leal and the trend of the best female skateboarders in the world today being absurdly young relative to both their male counterparts and historical norms: neilpaine.substack.com/p/the-future...
November 20, 2025 at 5:32 PM
I wrote today about Chloe Covell, Rayssa Leal and the trend of the best female skateboarders in the world today being absurdly young relative to both their male counterparts and historical norms: neilpaine.substack.com/p/the-future...
Today for the Philly Inquirer, I wrote about Paul George’s return to the Sixers — and what he can, or can’t, provide for them this season: www.inquirer.com/sixers/sixer...
What Paul George can still give the Sixers — and what might be a thing of the past
He may not be the MVP candidate of his prime nor even the All-Star he was for L.A. in 2024, but he can still provide the Sixers with plenty of things they need if he can stay on the court.
www.inquirer.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Today for the Philly Inquirer, I wrote about Paul George’s return to the Sixers — and what he can, or can’t, provide for them this season: www.inquirer.com/sixers/sixer...
In “honor” of EA’s new live-service Skate game dropping, today’s post is about the zombie afterlife of our once-great skateboarding games — and what happens to a fundamentally rebellious culture when corporations strip-mine it for profits: neilpaine.substack.com/p/tony-hawk-...
Tony Hawk, EA Skate and the Zombie Afterlife of Skateboarding Video Games
How the history of skating games shows us what happens when counterculture gets consumed and reanimated by corporations.
neilpaine.substack.com
September 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
In “honor” of EA’s new live-service Skate game dropping, today’s post is about the zombie afterlife of our once-great skateboarding games — and what happens to a fundamentally rebellious culture when corporations strip-mine it for profits: neilpaine.substack.com/p/tony-hawk-...
With his return to the lineup, I had to write about the whole Kyle Tucker situation in Chicago — and it turns out slumps like he’s endured over the past few months are surprisingly common among the best hitters in MLB. neilpaine.substack.com/p/slumps-hap...
Slumps Happen — To Kyle Tucker, and Everybody Else, Too
The Cubs’ star acquisition looks lost at the plate, but most of the best hitters endure stretches just like this... or worse.
neilpaine.substack.com
August 21, 2025 at 6:06 PM
With his return to the lineup, I had to write about the whole Kyle Tucker situation in Chicago — and it turns out slumps like he’s endured over the past few months are surprisingly common among the best hitters in MLB. neilpaine.substack.com/p/slumps-hap...
On the 47th anniversary of their 10th and final meeting, I wrote about Affirmed and Alydar’s remarkable rivalry, the closest in Triple Crown history: neilpaine.substack.com/p/affirmed-a...
Affirmed, Alydar and the Rivalry That Still Defines Horse Racing
Exactly 47 years after their final clash, Affirmed and Alydar remain inseparable in a saga of speed, controversy and two champions who made each other great.
neilpaine.substack.com
August 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
On the 47th anniversary of their 10th and final meeting, I wrote about Affirmed and Alydar’s remarkable rivalry, the closest in Triple Crown history: neilpaine.substack.com/p/affirmed-a...
With David Wright set to have his No. 5 retired and enter Mets Hall of Fame this weekend, here’s a piece I wrote about how Wright went from a surefire Hall of Famer to a heartbreaking “what-if?” back in 2017: neilpaine.substack.com/p/david-wrig...
David Wright’s Career Wasn’t Supposed To Go This Way
In a narrow sense, the recent announcement that New York Mets captain David Wright needed surgery — thus ending his latest rehab stint — was just another line item in what was already an absurdly inju...
neilpaine.substack.com
July 18, 2025 at 11:28 PM
With David Wright set to have his No. 5 retired and enter Mets Hall of Fame this weekend, here’s a piece I wrote about how Wright went from a surefire Hall of Famer to a heartbreaking “what-if?” back in 2017: neilpaine.substack.com/p/david-wrig...
Today’s post focuses on the only way LeBron can make a buzzer-beating push to pass MJ in the GOAT debate: Winning a ring that “counts” more. Based on a system that values rings based on their rarity to the team/city, there might be only 1 place to do that. 🗽🍎🚕 neilpaine.substack.com/p/if-lebron-...
If LeBron Wants to Pass Jordan, He Needs to Leave L.A. (and Win)
The Lakers are moving on soon — and 1 ring in a place like, say, New York City is worth more than 2 elsewhere.
neilpaine.substack.com
July 18, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Today’s post focuses on the only way LeBron can make a buzzer-beating push to pass MJ in the GOAT debate: Winning a ring that “counts” more. Based on a system that values rings based on their rarity to the team/city, there might be only 1 place to do that. 🗽🍎🚕 neilpaine.substack.com/p/if-lebron-...
I made a new metric, STANTON — or the Statcast-Tuned Algorithm for Nascent Tater Output, Normalized — to measure the Home Run Derby potential of exit-velo beasts like James Wood and Oneil Cruz: neilpaine.substack.com/p/are-james-...
Are James Wood and Oneil Cruz Statcast’s Next HR Derby Chosen Ones?
The STANTON metric flags them as tater-blasters in the mold of other Derby dominators — from Aaron Judge to Giancarlo himself.
neilpaine.substack.com
July 14, 2025 at 12:42 PM
I made a new metric, STANTON — or the Statcast-Tuned Algorithm for Nascent Tater Output, Normalized — to measure the Home Run Derby potential of exit-velo beasts like James Wood and Oneil Cruz: neilpaine.substack.com/p/are-james-...
Alex Ovechkin just claimed sole possession of hockey's greatest record -- here's how the unbreakable got broken: neilpaine.substack.com/p/wayne-gret...
Wayne Gretzky's Goals Record Was Unbreakable. Alex Ovechkin Broke It Anyway.
The Great One set the mark in a different era. Ovechkin outlasted the subsequent ones designed to stop him.
neilpaine.substack.com
April 6, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Alex Ovechkin just claimed sole possession of hockey's greatest record -- here's how the unbreakable got broken: neilpaine.substack.com/p/wayne-gret...
I used the Yankees’ new bats as an excuse to talk about Formula 1. (I’ll explain why.) neilpaine.substack.com/p/the-yankee...
The Yankees’ Torpedo Bats Are a Formula 1 Moment in MLB
What happens when a sport is totally blindsided by (legal) technological innovation?
neilpaine.substack.com
March 31, 2025 at 5:13 PM
I used the Yankees’ new bats as an excuse to talk about Formula 1. (I’ll explain why.) neilpaine.substack.com/p/the-yankee...
“Winning the SEC tournament is harder than winning the NCAA tournament this year” is a sentiment that is bound to be repeated all week. So my old PFR Blog pal @jasonlisk.bsky.social and I looked into just how dubious that claim is: neilpaine.substack.com/p/is-winning...
Is Winning the SEC Tournament Really Harder than Winning the National Championship?
Yes, the SEC is stacked, but the math doesn’t quite add up.
neilpaine.substack.com
March 10, 2025 at 1:15 PM
“Winning the SEC tournament is harder than winning the NCAA tournament this year” is a sentiment that is bound to be repeated all week. So my old PFR Blog pal @jasonlisk.bsky.social and I looked into just how dubious that claim is: neilpaine.substack.com/p/is-winning...
ICYMI: I wrote about the meaning of Katherine Legge becoming the first woman to drive at NASCAR’s highest level in 7 years, since Danica Patrick retired in 2018: neilpaine.substack.com/p/katherine-...
Katherine Legge’s NASCAR Cup Series Debut Shows How Far Women Have Come — And How Far There Is to Go
After Danica Patrick, why has it taken 7 years for another woman to debut — one even older than Patrick is now?
neilpaine.substack.com
March 6, 2025 at 7:18 PM
ICYMI: I wrote about the meaning of Katherine Legge becoming the first woman to drive at NASCAR’s highest level in 7 years, since Danica Patrick retired in 2018: neilpaine.substack.com/p/katherine-...
Just a few years ago, Detroit was the capital of America’s struggling sports cities. Now it’s on the upswing again — fueled by the incredible rise of the Lions as current Super Bowl favorites. neilpaine.substack.com/p/can-the-li...
January 17, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Just a few years ago, Detroit was the capital of America’s struggling sports cities. Now it’s on the upswing again — fueled by the incredible rise of the Lions as current Super Bowl favorites. neilpaine.substack.com/p/can-the-li...
With a 12% chance to make the playoffs, the Bengals are in danger of wasting an amazing Joe Burrow season. But sadly, that’s nothing new for Cincinnati over the history of the franchise: neilpaine.substack.com/p/nobody-was...
January 3, 2025 at 8:00 PM
With a 12% chance to make the playoffs, the Bengals are in danger of wasting an amazing Joe Burrow season. But sadly, that’s nothing new for Cincinnati over the history of the franchise: neilpaine.substack.com/p/nobody-was...
Focusing on Lamar Jackson’s play this year, I wrote about the strange psychology of MVP voting (not just in the NFL), and how a defending multi-time MVP with the best numbers of his career can somehow be a heavy underdog to win again: neilpaine.substack.com/p/voter-fati...
December 30, 2024 at 4:56 PM
Focusing on Lamar Jackson’s play this year, I wrote about the strange psychology of MVP voting (not just in the NFL), and how a defending multi-time MVP with the best numbers of his career can somehow be a heavy underdog to win again: neilpaine.substack.com/p/voter-fati...
The NY Rangers are in a tailspin right now, having lost 11 of 14 games with a -1.5 GPG diff. But making things worse is that the schedule only gets harder. According to Elo ratings, NYR has faced the EASIEST schedule of any team so far; their SOS rises to 4th-HARDEST over the rest of the season.
December 18, 2024 at 4:40 PM
The NY Rangers are in a tailspin right now, having lost 11 of 14 games with a -1.5 GPG diff. But making things worse is that the schedule only gets harder. According to Elo ratings, NYR has faced the EASIEST schedule of any team so far; their SOS rises to 4th-HARDEST over the rest of the season.
Red Bull finishing third in the F1 constructor’s standings — and McLaren winning it! — seemed unthinkable a year ago. But as we’ve seen before, today’s dominant team can quickly become tomorrow’s third-place outfit once it reaches some kind of tipping point. neilpaine.substack.com/p/how-red-bu...
December 17, 2024 at 9:41 PM
Red Bull finishing third in the F1 constructor’s standings — and McLaren winning it! — seemed unthinkable a year ago. But as we’ve seen before, today’s dominant team can quickly become tomorrow’s third-place outfit once it reaches some kind of tipping point. neilpaine.substack.com/p/how-red-bu...
The Thunder are big favorites to win the NBA Cup right now. But the rest of the field are no slouches — and that includes the Hawks, who are the team that most consistently aligns their play to the level of the competition (for good or bad) this season. neilpaine.substack.com/p/basketball...
December 13, 2024 at 8:46 PM
The Thunder are big favorites to win the NBA Cup right now. But the rest of the field are no slouches — and that includes the Hawks, who are the team that most consistently aligns their play to the level of the competition (for good or bad) this season. neilpaine.substack.com/p/basketball...