Natalia Forrat
@nataliaforrat.bsky.social
Comments and opinions are my own. Retweets and shares are not endorsements.
On the different scenarios of how the war in Ukraine may develop. Includes an analysis of Russia's capacity to continue the war. The most realistic scenario - a prolonged conflict of low intensity.
www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Next Chapter
Russia’s war in Ukraine has persisted for over three years. Despite U.S. mediation attempts, from Saudi talks to a Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, and European debates on peacekeepers, Russia continu...
www.csis.org
October 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
On the different scenarios of how the war in Ukraine may develop. Includes an analysis of Russia's capacity to continue the war. The most realistic scenario - a prolonged conflict of low intensity.
www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
Wow. I don't remember if I ever saw that big of a shift in public opinion in just one year.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/u...
"The recent shift in attitudes about immigration has been driven primarily by Republicans,
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/u...
"The recent shift in attitudes about immigration has been driven primarily by Republicans,
Support for Immigration Rebounds as Trump Cracks Down on It, Poll Finds
www.nytimes.com
July 12, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Wow. I don't remember if I ever saw that big of a shift in public opinion in just one year.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/u...
"The recent shift in attitudes about immigration has been driven primarily by Republicans,
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/u...
"The recent shift in attitudes about immigration has been driven primarily by Republicans,
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...
"That Mr. Rubio was in El Salvador on the day of U.S.A.I.D.’s demise carried a particular resonance.
"That Mr. Rubio was in El Salvador on the day of U.S.A.I.D.’s demise carried a particular resonance.
Missteps, Confusion and ‘Viral Waste’: The 14 Days That Doomed U.S.A.I.D.
www.nytimes.com
June 22, 2025 at 3:20 PM
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...
"That Mr. Rubio was in El Salvador on the day of U.S.A.I.D.’s demise carried a particular resonance.
"That Mr. Rubio was in El Salvador on the day of U.S.A.I.D.’s demise carried a particular resonance.
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
My team and I at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman@bsky.social, Soha Hammam, & Chris Shay) have a new piece out: wagingnonviolence.org/2025/06/amer.... In it, we show that through May 2025, the size and scale of anti-Trump protests have dwarfed those in 2017. 🧵
June 13, 2025 at 2:25 AM
My team and I at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman@bsky.social, Soha Hammam, & Chris Shay) have a new piece out: wagingnonviolence.org/2025/06/amer.... In it, we show that through May 2025, the size and scale of anti-Trump protests have dwarfed those in 2017. 🧵
For those who did not make it to my book talk on April 1st, I will be doing it again tomorrow at the Stanford's CDDRL @ noon Pacific Time.
Stanford people - see you in person; everyone else can join via Zoom. @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/events/socia...
Stanford people - see you in person; everyone else can join via Zoom. @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/events/socia...
May 28, 2025 at 2:52 PM
For those who did not make it to my book talk on April 1st, I will be doing it again tomorrow at the Stanford's CDDRL @ noon Pacific Time.
Stanford people - see you in person; everyone else can join via Zoom. @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/events/socia...
Stanford people - see you in person; everyone else can join via Zoom. @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/events/socia...
I'm far from saying that the US is like Russia, but it seems that in all countries, government funds and accreditation/certification are the sticks used by autocrats to tame universities. Kudos to Harvard for standing up to this. Universities have the power!
edition.cnn.com/2025/04/16/u...
edition.cnn.com/2025/04/16/u...
DHS threatens to revoke Harvard’s eligibility to host international students unless it turns over disciplinary records | CNN
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is threatening to strip Harvard University of its ability to enroll international students if it doesn’t turn over records on international studen...
edition.cnn.com
April 17, 2025 at 11:08 AM
I'm far from saying that the US is like Russia, but it seems that in all countries, government funds and accreditation/certification are the sticks used by autocrats to tame universities. Kudos to Harvard for standing up to this. Universities have the power!
edition.cnn.com/2025/04/16/u...
edition.cnn.com/2025/04/16/u...
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
Ask Trump whether he's still convinced Pu wants peace.
Ukraine's Syrskyi confirms new Russian offensive in northeast, following Zelenskiy's warning. Increased attacks observed across multiple frontlines. #UkraineConflict #News
Ukraine's military chief says new Russian offensive has begun
Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Syrskyi attends an in interview with Reuters in Kharkiv ...
ca.news.yahoo.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Ask Trump whether he's still convinced Pu wants peace.
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
April 10, 2025 at 10:17 AM
"The playbook begins with a recognition that capitulation is doomed."
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/o...
Opinion | A Playbook for Law Firms and Colleges to Stand Up to President Trump
Law firms and universities do not need to capitulate. Here’s how they can fight back.
www.nytimes.com
April 6, 2025 at 2:58 PM
"The playbook begins with a recognition that capitulation is doomed."
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/o...
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
He never knew a day of peace
This is Tymofii. Russia killed him with a cluster-loaded Iskander missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. He was only 3 years old.
#Ukraine
#Ukraine
April 5, 2025 at 10:14 AM
He never knew a day of peace
"Liu, who said she was already in New York when she received the call, told CTV News that she was told that the slides about Gaza “could be perceived as antisemitic” and that the USAID slides might be perceived as “anti-governmental”."
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
NYU canceled talk on USAID cuts for being ‘anti-governmental’, doctor says
University called Dr Joanne Liu, ex-head of Doctors Without Borders, after planning to speak on Gaza and federal cuts
www.theguardian.com
April 3, 2025 at 1:52 PM
"Liu, who said she was already in New York when she received the call, told CTV News that she was told that the slides about Gaza “could be perceived as antisemitic” and that the USAID slides might be perceived as “anti-governmental”."
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
This was….five months ago
April 2, 2025 at 11:49 PM
This was….five months ago
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
This one is has nothing to do with peace talks. Putin signs those twice a year. Every year
Putin has signed a decree for the spring military draft.
Truly, no one makes deals like Donnie.
Truly, no one makes deals like Donnie.
March 31, 2025 at 3:56 PM
This one is has nothing to do with peace talks. Putin signs those twice a year. Every year
Dear all - if you're free at lunchtime (EST) tomorrow (April 1), come or connect to my book talk at the University of Michigan Center for Emerging Democracies! THIS IS NOT A JOKE!
Zoom registration link: myumi.ch/qV3kX
Also, check out the book in your library: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Zoom registration link: myumi.ch/qV3kX
Also, check out the book in your library: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
March 31, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Dear all - if you're free at lunchtime (EST) tomorrow (April 1), come or connect to my book talk at the University of Michigan Center for Emerging Democracies! THIS IS NOT A JOKE!
Zoom registration link: myumi.ch/qV3kX
Also, check out the book in your library: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Zoom registration link: myumi.ch/qV3kX
Also, check out the book in your library: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
I guess we should now be waiting for executive orders against automakers who raise prices? By the way, very happy to see that some law firms choose to fight rather than concede.
www.wsj.com/business/aut...
www.wsj.com/business/aut...
Trump Warned U.S. Automakers Not to Raise Prices in Response to Tariffs
The threat came in a call earlier this month, leaving CEOs worried they would face punishment if prices go up.
www.wsj.com
March 30, 2025 at 12:50 PM
I guess we should now be waiting for executive orders against automakers who raise prices? By the way, very happy to see that some law firms choose to fight rather than concede.
www.wsj.com/business/aut...
www.wsj.com/business/aut...
"The data suggest that the swing in young adults voting for Trump did not reflect a major shift in ideology. ... the swing seems to have resulted from moderate-to-somewhat-liberal young voters deciding to bet on Mr.Trump out of concern about the state of the economy..
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/o...
Opinion | Have Young People Really Turned MAGA?
Feeling empowered is different from numerical growth.
www.nytimes.com
March 26, 2025 at 6:37 PM
"The data suggest that the swing in young adults voting for Trump did not reflect a major shift in ideology. ... the swing seems to have resulted from moderate-to-somewhat-liberal young voters deciding to bet on Mr.Trump out of concern about the state of the economy..
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/o...
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
Trump's talk about the US taking control of Ukraine's nuclear facilities has nothing to do with peace-making. Most likely, it's joint effort by Ru and the US to make sure Ukraine cannot develop its own nuclear deterrent. A Budapest Memorandum 2 proposal, if you will, w more useless assurances.
March 20, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Trump's talk about the US taking control of Ukraine's nuclear facilities has nothing to do with peace-making. Most likely, it's joint effort by Ru and the US to make sure Ukraine cannot develop its own nuclear deterrent. A Budapest Memorandum 2 proposal, if you will, w more useless assurances.
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
Chart of cumulative protests reported from Jan 22 - Feb 28, 2017 vs 2025:
March 19, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Chart of cumulative protests reported from Jan 22 - Feb 28, 2017 vs 2025:
Clean your devices before crossing the US border, ladies and gentlemen. Probably even if you are US citizens. This is a 101 survival skill under autocracy; time to learn it.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/w...
U.S. Denied Entry to French Scientist Over Views on Trump Policies, France Says
The French authorities said the academic had been traveling to a conference near Houston when border officials blocked his entry because of conversations found on his phone.
www.nytimes.com
March 20, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Clean your devices before crossing the US border, ladies and gentlemen. Probably even if you are US citizens. This is a 101 survival skill under autocracy; time to learn it.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/w...
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
March 18, 2025 at 9:32 PM
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
Some very detailed polling data here. Worth reading/watching.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/o...
Opinion | Democrats Need to Face Why Trump Won
The Democratic pollster David Shor walks through what voter data reveals about the 2024 election — and how the American electorate is shifting.
www.nytimes.com
March 18, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Some very detailed polling data here. Worth reading/watching.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/o...
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
How many think Trump’s annexation talk about Canada is about America feeling insecure and fearing an attack by Canada? No one? That’s how ridiculous all the talk about Russia fearing an attack by Ukraine has been but way too many have fallen for it.
March 17, 2025 at 11:59 AM
How many think Trump’s annexation talk about Canada is about America feeling insecure and fearing an attack by Canada? No one? That’s how ridiculous all the talk about Russia fearing an attack by Ukraine has been but way too many have fallen for it.
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
It is important to fight these cases in court. Decisions may be weakly enforced, but the information revealed in discovery creates bad press and autocrats hate bad press. Not fighting will damage morale and only encourage more assaults. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/n...
Legal Experts Question Trump’s Authority to Cancel Columbia’s Funding
The government has demanded drastic changes to the university before it will consider reinstating $400 million. Lee C. Bollinger, the school’s former president calls it an “existential threat.”
www.nytimes.com
March 17, 2025 at 11:21 AM
It is important to fight these cases in court. Decisions may be weakly enforced, but the information revealed in discovery creates bad press and autocrats hate bad press. Not fighting will damage morale and only encourage more assaults. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/n...
Reposted by Natalia Forrat
Was talking to a dean at a top 🇺🇸 university (not mine) in January. He said the 2 red lines would be attacks on academic freedoms & on our international students. These lines have obv been crossed, & the actual strategy seems to be keeping one's head down & hoping the bad people won’t come for us.
March 14, 2025 at 2:03 AM
Was talking to a dean at a top 🇺🇸 university (not mine) in January. He said the 2 red lines would be attacks on academic freedoms & on our international students. These lines have obv been crossed, & the actual strategy seems to be keeping one's head down & hoping the bad people won’t come for us.