Michael Hanna
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
Director, U.S. Program, International Crisis Group; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Reiss Center on Law and Security, NYU School of Law
This says a lot about perception, mood and confidence (or lack thereof), so useful as a barometer despite the fact that it doesn’t correspond with reality.
Only 35% of Americans say the United States has more global power and influence than China does.
I am with the 19% who say the United States is more powerful than China — but that’s the least popular of the three options polled in the new @carnegieendowment.org / YouGov survey.
I am with the 19% who say the United States is more powerful than China — but that’s the least popular of the three options polled in the new @carnegieendowment.org / YouGov survey.
January 25, 2026 at 7:10 PM
This says a lot about perception, mood and confidence (or lack thereof), so useful as a barometer despite the fact that it doesn’t correspond with reality.
Reposted by Michael Hanna
At Davos, by saying he would not use force, Trump somewhat cooled a crisis engendered by his insistence the U.S. own Greenland. But the crisis continues, & however it sorts out, transatlantic relations are irrevocably altered. Our @crisisgroup.org pre-speech analysis lays it out 🧵 1/10
www.crisisgroup.org
January 23, 2026 at 2:02 PM
At Davos, by saying he would not use force, Trump somewhat cooled a crisis engendered by his insistence the U.S. own Greenland. But the crisis continues, & however it sorts out, transatlantic relations are irrevocably altered. Our @crisisgroup.org pre-speech analysis lays it out 🧵 1/10
Reposted by Michael Hanna
The Board of Peace was born today.
@fortid.crisisgroup.org and I welcome it into the world @foreignpolicy.com. Sort of.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/t...
@fortid.crisisgroup.org and I welcome it into the world @foreignpolicy.com. Sort of.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/t...
The Board of Discord
Trump’s “Board of Peace” is neither an alternative to the U.N. nor a harmless vanity project but a threat to international cooperation.
foreignpolicy.com
January 22, 2026 at 9:56 PM
The Board of Peace was born today.
@fortid.crisisgroup.org and I welcome it into the world @foreignpolicy.com. Sort of.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/t...
@fortid.crisisgroup.org and I welcome it into the world @foreignpolicy.com. Sort of.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/t...
A few thoughts on Trump’s offer to mediate the GERD dispute, which serves more as a testament to improved U.S.-Egypt ties than as a pathway to resolve the major issues between Egypt and Ethiopia.
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/middle-e...
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/middle-e...
Egypt Applauds U.S. Promise to Mediate in Deadlocked Nile Dispute | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna analyses Trump’s latest peacemaking gesture, related to the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over a dam on the Nile.
www.crisisgroup.org
January 21, 2026 at 8:32 PM
A few thoughts on Trump’s offer to mediate the GERD dispute, which serves more as a testament to improved U.S.-Egypt ties than as a pathway to resolve the major issues between Egypt and Ethiopia.
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/middle-e...
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/middle-e...
Reposted by Michael Hanna
Did Donald Trump rule out use of force in his Davos speech? Not entirely clear, but he did not walk back from his demand for an ally's territory. @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org, Marta Mucznik, & I walk through the implications of this continuing crisis for the European & transatlantic security
Waiting for Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 21, 2026 at 4:16 PM
Did Donald Trump rule out use of force in his Davos speech? Not entirely clear, but he did not walk back from his demand for an ally's territory. @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org, Marta Mucznik, & I walk through the implications of this continuing crisis for the European & transatlantic security
Reposted by Michael Hanna
While Trump has several times referenced national security in his talk of acquiring Greenland, it is difficult to make an interest-based case for his vision.
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
Waiting for Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 21, 2026 at 12:34 PM
While Trump has several times referenced national security in his talk of acquiring Greenland, it is difficult to make an interest-based case for his vision.
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
Reposted by Michael Hanna
As Davos awaits Trump, my colleagues & I lay out what's at stake in the Greenland crisis & what might come next as European allies weigh the value of Donald Trump's United States & their options
Waiting for Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 21, 2026 at 12:35 PM
As Davos awaits Trump, my colleagues & I lay out what's at stake in the Greenland crisis & what might come next as European allies weigh the value of Donald Trump's United States & their options
An important caveat. In a number of cases in which the U.S. has stepped back, middle powers have exacerbated conflict dynamics and hardly been a boon to international order.
Definitely an important time to be studying middle powers.
What's concerning is the extent to which, like the US, populist-led middle powers also use extortionist tactics to revise the current international order in their favor. And to translate international "wins" into continued rule at home.
What's concerning is the extent to which, like the US, populist-led middle powers also use extortionist tactics to revise the current international order in their favor. And to translate international "wins" into continued rule at home.
Best times to be studying middle powers, no longer an abstract notion.
January 20, 2026 at 9:17 PM
An important caveat. In a number of cases in which the U.S. has stepped back, middle powers have exacerbated conflict dynamics and hardly been a boon to international order.
Focus is elsewhere, but it’s astonishing that the status of Al-Hol camp is an open question at the moment with the SDF seemingly retreating from its positions. Real fears that ISIS detainees have broken out.
January 20, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Focus is elsewhere, but it’s astonishing that the status of Al-Hol camp is an open question at the moment with the SDF seemingly retreating from its positions. Real fears that ISIS detainees have broken out.
Reposted by Michael Hanna
Nicolás Maduro is gone in Venezuela. What’s less clear is what comes next.
@philgunson.bsky.social explains why a true democratic transition could be indefinitely postponed: www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
@philgunson.bsky.social explains why a true democratic transition could be indefinitely postponed: www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
January 19, 2026 at 5:17 PM
Nicolás Maduro is gone in Venezuela. What’s less clear is what comes next.
@philgunson.bsky.social explains why a true democratic transition could be indefinitely postponed: www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
@philgunson.bsky.social explains why a true democratic transition could be indefinitely postponed: www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Throughout Trump’s time in office the U.S. has been almost normal enough that allies and partners have carried on despite the erratic nature of decision-making and turmoil he produced. Waiting Trump out will simply no longer be an option for Europe if he presses forward with his Greenland gambit.
January 19, 2026 at 1:02 PM
Throughout Trump’s time in office the U.S. has been almost normal enough that allies and partners have carried on despite the erratic nature of decision-making and turmoil he produced. Waiting Trump out will simply no longer be an option for Europe if he presses forward with his Greenland gambit.
So much of the discussion on potential U.S. strikes on Iran is limited to whether they will happen and very little is devoted to what they are intended to do or what they might produce.
January 13, 2026 at 6:39 PM
So much of the discussion on potential U.S. strikes on Iran is limited to whether they will happen and very little is devoted to what they are intended to do or what they might produce.
Reposted by Michael Hanna
NEW STATEMENT | Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within
Iran is experiencing nationwide upheaval, and the state has responded with brute force. U.S. threats of military intervention create additional dangers.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Iran is experiencing nationwide upheaval, and the state has responded with brute force. U.S. threats of military intervention create additional dangers.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within | International Crisis Group
Once again, Iran is experiencing nationwide upheaval and, as on past occasions, the state has responded with brute force. This time, however, U.S. threats of military intervention create additional da...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 13, 2026 at 4:41 PM
NEW STATEMENT | Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within
Iran is experiencing nationwide upheaval, and the state has responded with brute force. U.S. threats of military intervention create additional dangers.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Iran is experiencing nationwide upheaval, and the state has responded with brute force. U.S. threats of military intervention create additional dangers.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Reposted by Michael Hanna
Looking forward to speaking at this meeting on Venezuela tomorrow morning convened by @meeks.house.gov.
Should be streaming at 8:30am EST tomorrow.
democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-releas...
Should be streaming at 8:30am EST tomorrow.
democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-releas...
MEDIA ADVISORY: Meeks, HFAC Dems Hold Special Meeting on Venezuela
democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov
January 13, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Looking forward to speaking at this meeting on Venezuela tomorrow morning convened by @meeks.house.gov.
Should be streaming at 8:30am EST tomorrow.
democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-releas...
Should be streaming at 8:30am EST tomorrow.
democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-releas...
Reposted by Michael Hanna
It's a big week for the War Powers Resolution.
Read my latest with @bcfinucane.bsky.social on:
-2 sets of ongoing hostilities (drug boats & #Venezuela)
-the WPR's constitutionality
-how Congress can respond to unauthorized military action by the President
www.justsecurity.org/128517/war-p...
Read my latest with @bcfinucane.bsky.social on:
-2 sets of ongoing hostilities (drug boats & #Venezuela)
-the WPR's constitutionality
-how Congress can respond to unauthorized military action by the President
www.justsecurity.org/128517/war-p...
War Powers, Venezuela, Drug Boats, and Congress
Trump's unauthorized military interventions should spur Congress to reassert its constitutional prerogatives over the use of force.
www.justsecurity.org
January 12, 2026 at 3:01 PM
It's a big week for the War Powers Resolution.
Read my latest with @bcfinucane.bsky.social on:
-2 sets of ongoing hostilities (drug boats & #Venezuela)
-the WPR's constitutionality
-how Congress can respond to unauthorized military action by the President
www.justsecurity.org/128517/war-p...
Read my latest with @bcfinucane.bsky.social on:
-2 sets of ongoing hostilities (drug boats & #Venezuela)
-the WPR's constitutionality
-how Congress can respond to unauthorized military action by the President
www.justsecurity.org/128517/war-p...
The reality of what US military intervention in Venezuela produces will be a major limiting factor going forward. And the same for Iran if the Trump administration decides to take action. It’s quite an assumption to imagine smooth sailing from here on out.
January 11, 2026 at 7:57 PM
The reality of what US military intervention in Venezuela produces will be a major limiting factor going forward. And the same for Iran if the Trump administration decides to take action. It’s quite an assumption to imagine smooth sailing from here on out.
Egypt’s best performance of the tournament. Mo v Sadio again.
January 10, 2026 at 8:58 PM
Egypt’s best performance of the tournament. Mo v Sadio again.
Reposted by Michael Hanna
NEW STATEMENT | Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition?
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition? | International Crisis Group
The Trump administration has decapitated the Venezuelan government by staging a dramatic military raid on the capital and removing President Nicolás Maduro to a U.S. jail. Its declared plan to “run” t...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 9, 2026 at 1:30 PM
NEW STATEMENT | Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition?
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Donald Trump has decapitated Venezuela’s government by removing Maduro. But Washington’s declared plan to “run” the country remotely risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
A Liverpool player would’ve been well within their rights to punch Martinelli in the face.
January 8, 2026 at 9:57 PM
A Liverpool player would’ve been well within their rights to punch Martinelli in the face.
This rhetoric is depressingly familiar after focusing for many years on authoritarian contexts elsewhere.
Kristi Noem accuses the woman who was killed by ICE in Minneapolis of committing an act of "domestic terrorism"
January 7, 2026 at 7:41 PM
This rhetoric is depressingly familiar after focusing for many years on authoritarian contexts elsewhere.
Of course the obsession is much more so with the idea of expansion itself than any specific territory. Trump is driven by vanity and his own sense of his legacy and we should absolutely take that fixation seriously.
Genuinely kind of wild how deeply serious the obsession was at one point:
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/w...
How Trump’s ‘51st State’ Canada Talk Came to Be Seen as Deadly Serious
www.nytimes.com
January 7, 2026 at 6:24 PM
Of course the obsession is much more so with the idea of expansion itself than any specific territory. Trump is driven by vanity and his own sense of his legacy and we should absolutely take that fixation seriously.
Reposted by Michael Hanna
"The retreat calls into greater question the legitimacy of the Trump administration’s designation of Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization last year."
Almost like this whole narco-terrorism narrative is a tad shaky.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
Almost like this whole narco-terrorism narrative is a tad shaky.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
Justice Dept. Drops Claim That Venezuela’s ‘Cartel de los Soles’ Is an Actual Group
www.nytimes.com
January 6, 2026 at 12:20 AM
"The retreat calls into greater question the legitimacy of the Trump administration’s designation of Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization last year."
Almost like this whole narco-terrorism narrative is a tad shaky.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
Almost like this whole narco-terrorism narrative is a tad shaky.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
A great, great finish too. Hopefully Afcon will be a boost to Salah’s confidence and form.
🔴Mohamed Salah 👑 Scores Egypt's 3rd Goal in Extra Time against Benin in a 3-1 Win, as 🇪🇬 head into the quarter-finals of the Afcon!
January 5, 2026 at 7:12 PM
A great, great finish too. Hopefully Afcon will be a boost to Salah’s confidence and form.
My colleague in Caracas, Phil Gunson, on what next for Venezuela.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela? | International Crisis Group
In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson about the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, Pres...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 5, 2026 at 4:31 PM
My colleague in Caracas, Phil Gunson, on what next for Venezuela.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
The day after risks highlighted here are well worth revisiting.
January 3, 2026 at 9:53 AM
The day after risks highlighted here are well worth revisiting.