Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
Co-founder of Igarapé Institute, SecDev, and Bioverse | Geopolitics, security, technology, cities and nature enthusiast | TED speaker | Lancet Commission | Bosch Academy | Author of Terra Incognita | SuperNature | robertmuggah.org .. more
Co-founder of Igarapé Institute, SecDev, and Bioverse | Geopolitics, security, technology, cities and nature enthusiast | TED speaker | Lancet Commission | Bosch Academy | Author of Terra Incognita | SuperNature | robertmuggah.org
Robert Muggah is a political scientist, urbanist, and security expert. He is the co-founder of the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Group, where he is known for his work on urbanization, crime prevention, arms control, migration, cyber-security, the digital economy, conflict and development studies. He regularly advises national and city governments, management consulting and technology firms, United Nations agencies, and the World Bank. .. more
Political science
49%
Sociology
27%
EU states back record South America trade deal after 25 years
EU states gave a provisional go-ahead on Friday for the bloc to sign its largest ever free trade accord with South American group Mercosur, more than 25 years since talks began and after months of wra...
www.reuters.com
#EU-#Mercosur deal finally signed. We’ll be seeing many more FTAs as the rest of the world seeks to derisk from the U.S.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
The US raid risks normalizing cross-border “law enforcement” grabs—setting a precedent Moscow and Beijing can copy. Russia could cite it for moves against Ukrainian leaders; China could frame ops against Taiwan as policing, not war. Spoke to @aljazeera.com
www.instagram.com/reel/DTEVwjD...
www.instagram.com/reel/DTEVwjD...
What will make or break the EU in 2026?
Last year radically transformed Europe, as Russia continued its war in Ukraine and the US reneged on longstanding commitments to the continent.
www.theparliamentmagazine.eu
2026 could make or break Europe: Ukraine escalation, a tougher US, fragile and populist politics and climate shocks loom — pushing the #EU toward deeper integration or dangerous fragmentation. New from #ParliamentMagazine
www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...
www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Dec 22
The Ballot and the Bullet
Across Latin America, organised crime is not just killing people, it is also killing democracy
flashnote.secdev.com
Chile’s runoff win for hardliner Kast signals a wider shift: across Latin America, organized #crime is reshaping #democracy. Even where violence falls, fear drives voters toward “iron fist” politics—trading rights for the promise of control. #SecDev
flashnote.secdev.com/p/the-ballot...
flashnote.secdev.com/p/the-ballot...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Dec 21
Como o efeito Bukele está remodelando a segurança nas Américas
A política de segurança, que tem no centro um estado de exceçãopermanente, tornou-se um espetáculo, uma fusão de justiça criminal, reality show e propaganda digital
valor.globo.com
A política de segurança, que tem no centro um estado de exceçãopermanente, tornou-se um espetáculo, uma fusão de justiça criminal, reality show e propaganda digital. @valoreconomico.bsky.social
valor.globo.com/google/amp/o...
valor.globo.com/google/amp/o...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Dec 17
Com prejuízos de até R$ 1,5 trilhão aos cofres públicos, crime é imposto oculto na economia brasileira | Economia | O Globo
Na macroeconomia do crime, PIB do Brasil é um dos mais afetados do mundo, segundo o BID
oglobo.globo.com
Mesmo com estimativas cautelosas, esses domínios criminais juntos somam talvez R$ 1,3 trilhão a R$ 1,5 trilhão anualmente, da ordem de 12% a 14% do PIB do Brasil, aproximadamente o mesmo tamanho das economias de Portugal ou da República Tcheca. oglobo.globo.com/google/amp/e...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Dec 9
'Every Man We Killed Is a Gangster': On the Front Lines with Haiti's Vigilantes
Jean Ernest Muscadin's official duties are to prosecute crimes — but he's been accused of summarily killing dozens of purported gang members himself
www.rollingstone.com
With #Haiti’s government paralyzed and gangs ruling the capital, vigilante commissioner Muscadin embodies the nation’s desperation - seen as a savior by supporters and a human-rights violator by critics. Spoke to @rollingstone.com about what’s at stake.
www.rollingstone.com/culture/cult...
www.rollingstone.com/culture/cult...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Dec 9
How crime in Brazil drags down the economy and heaps economic pain on the nation’s poor
The percentage hit on Brazil’s GDP could be in the double digits.
theconversation.com
#Brazil’s criminal economy is a vast drag on growth. Once indirect losses are included, #crime may be shaving 12–14% off GDP each year, a regressive hidden tax on households and firms.
theconversation.com/how-crime-in...
theconversation.com/how-crime-in...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Dec 8
Com prejuízos de até R$ 1,5 trilhão aos cofres públicos, crime é imposto oculto na economia brasileira
Estes são os números oficiais mais conservadores das perdas anuais causadas pelo contrabando, a evasão fiscal, os crimes ambientais e a violência
theconversation.com
Brazil has a vast “invisible criminal economy” worth 12–14% of GDP — a hidden tax that hits the poor hardest. Brasília’s starting to treat crime not just as a public health, but as a central economic issue. @theconvo-bot.bsky.social
theconversation.com/com-prejuizo...
theconversation.com/com-prejuizo...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Dec 8
'Estilo Bukele' de segurança pública em El Salvador poderia ser replicado no Brasil? - BBC News Brasil
Líderes da direita no Brasil, como o governador de Minas Geraus, Romeu Zema (Novo), e o deputado federal Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG), defendem e elogiam modelo.
www.bbc.com
#Bukele inspira políticos brasileiros com seu modelo de “mano dura”, mas especialistas alertam para riscos e limites. No #Brasil, poder das facções, regras constitucionais e escala do país impedem copiar El Salvador. www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 25
Opinion: COP30 is a reminder that the world can’t wait for perfect consensus to act on climate change
Failure to declare phase-out of oil, gas and coal shows tyranny of the minority – but multilateralism remains alive and well
www.theglobeandmail.com
#COP30 opened in floods and ended in fire, fitting for a summit that saw small wins but missed a #fossilfuel phaseout. Frustrating as COP was, it shows that multilateralism isn’t broken and the world won’t wait for unanimous agreement. @theglobeandmail.com
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 23
No time to COP out
In Belém, climate geopolitics meets its limits, but not its end.
bit.ly
#COP30 failed on #fossilfuels but (partially) delivered across #forests and #finance. It shows how new multi-alignments are shaping climate politics. So what does the Belem Summit reveal about our turbulent geopolitical era? New analysis from SecDev.
bit.ly/49Cb5Sm
bit.ly/49Cb5Sm
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 21
Opinion: Mother Earth’s scream at COP30
Floods and fire at the Amazon summit underscored the urgency for action beyond negotiation halls
valorinternational.globo.com
Floods and fire at the #COP30 summit underscored the urgency for action beyond the negotiation halls. @valoreconomico.bsky.social.
valorinternational.globo.com/cop30-brazil...
valorinternational.globo.com/cop30-brazil...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 21
The Legacy of COP30 for Latin America
As the UN climate summit in Brazil winds down, one attendee looks at its lasting effects for the region.
americasquarterly.org
#COP30 began with floods and ended with fires. Belém serves as a reminder that climate diplomacy is no longer a distant conversation among ministers: it is a stress test for the places where most people actually live. New with #AmericasQuarterly: americasquarterly.org/article/the-...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 21
COP30 must protect the stability of Earth’s two richest biomes – the Amazon rainforest and the coral reefs | illuminem
Scientists, activists, and leaders urge COP30 to deliver a clear roadmap to phase out fossil fuels and protect tropical forests and coral reefs
illuminem.com
With only a few hours of #COP30 negotiations remaining, scientists, activists, political and business leaders, and Indigenous Peoples are urging delegations to deliver a clear #roadmap to phase out fossil fuels and to protect tropical #forests and #oceans.
illuminem.com/illuminemvoi...
illuminem.com/illuminemvoi...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 7
How organised crime took over areas of Rio de Janeiro – and why violent police raids won’t fix the problem
Robert Muggah, an expert in organised crime in Brazil, explains the origins of the Commando Vermehlo, the gang targeted in a deadly raid in Rio de Janeiro in late October.
theconversation.com
How organised crime took over areas of Rio de Janeiro, and why violent police raids won’t fix the problem. Short podcast with The Conversation.
@us.theconversation.com
@theconversation.com
theconversation.com/how-organise...
@us.theconversation.com
@theconversation.com
theconversation.com/how-organise...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 3
‘Cidades são laboratório de inovação nas ações climáticas’, diz economista
Cofundador do Igarapé, Robert Muggah diz que é possível que projetos locais sejam reproduzidos
valor.globo.com
Cidades são laboratório de inovação nas ações climáticas.
#COP30 #C40 #Bloomberg
valor.globo.com/brasil/cop30...
#COP30 #C40 #Bloomberg
valor.globo.com/brasil/cop30...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 1
The Great Rewiring | Washington Spectator
The world is sliding into an age of managed disorder, and Ukraine is where the new geometry comes into view. What began as Russia’s bid to subdue a neighbor is now a stress test of the international…
washingtonspectator.org
The world’s sliding into an age of managed disorder. #Ukraine’s where the new geometry comes into view. Its fight isn’t only for territory, but also which habits – coercion and carve-up or cooperation and constraint – defines the next chapter of world order.
washingtonspectator.org/the-great-re...
washingtonspectator.org/the-great-re...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Nov 1
US squeeze on Venezuela won’t bring about rapid collapse of Maduro – in fact, it might boomerang on Washington
Covert ops and military buildup in the Caribbean suggest Washington is eying a regime change. But are conditions ripe in Venezuela?
theconversation.com
Even as the White House pushes a counter-drugs/terrorism narrative, evidence points to a regime change. But military action could rally nationalist sentiment, fracture hemispheric consensus and drag the U.S. into a longer confrontation with regional spillovers.
theconversation.com/us-squeeze-o...
theconversation.com/us-squeeze-o...
Reposted by Robert Muggah
Authoritarians’ Brave New Cities
Robert Muggah & Carlo Ratti urge progressives to reclaim the mantle of experimental urbanism from the techno-libertarian right.
www.project-syndicate.org
Today is #WorldCitiesDay. Last month, @muggah.bsky.social and Carlo Ratti pointed out that cities have long served as crucibles for political and economic reform, and urged progressives to reclaim experimental urbanism as a platform for democratic renewal. bit.ly/3Wt5HJq
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 30
Após operação mais letal da história, desafio é combater economia do crime
Para especialistas é preciso asfixiar o financiamento do crime. Só em ouro, combustíveis, tabaco e bebidas as organizações criminosas movimentam R$ 145 bilhões por ano, além de faturar R$ 335 bilhões ...
exame.com
A polícia precisa tratar o tráfico internacional de armas de fogo como um crime da cadeia de suprimentos, especialmente considerando a estimativa de que 90% dos fuzis usados por facções criminosas.”
#Exame #IgarapeInstitute
exame.com/brasil/apos-...
#Exame #IgarapeInstitute
exame.com/brasil/apos-...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 30
Over 130 Killed in Bloody Crackdown on Drug Gangs in Rio de Janeiro
www.nytimes.com
“We’ve seen time and time again that heavy-handed approaches do not dismantle criminal networks,” said Robert Muggah, an expert on organized crime in Latin America and the research director of Igarapé Institute, a research group.“
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/w...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 28
Análise: O crime organizado se tornou o maior negócio do Brasil - e sua mais séria ameaça
A economia criminosa do Brasil deixou os becos para ocupar também salas de reuniões, constar de balanços patrimoniais e cadeias de suprimentos essenciais
theconversation.com
O Rio de Janeiro revela-se uma cidade cada vez mais sitiada pelo crime organizado. Ao final da tarde, o estado já havia confirmado 64 mortos na Operação Contenção, no confronto mais sangrento em um único dia no Rio em décadas. #ConversationBR
theconversation.com/analise-o-cr...
theconversation.com/analise-o-cr...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 20
A #COP30 deve levar crimes ambientais ao centro, alinhar clima, justiça e segurança, e incluir métricas de Estado de Direito, transparência fundiária, anticorrupção e capacidade judicial nas #NDCs, nos planos de adaptação e nas revisões globais. #Exame #IgarapeInstitute
exame.com/esg/o-crime-...
exame.com/esg/o-crime-...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 17
'Clash that could expand.' Why global war no longer feels like remote prospect
Many Europeans and Americans no longer view a global war as a remote prospect and believe World War III could happen in the next five to ten years.
www.usatoday.com
World War III no longer feels unthinkable. Here’s why. Spoke to #USAtoday about what some of our forecasting at #SecDev are revealing.
www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 16
COP must take environmental crime seriously
The costs of inaction are stark, but prevention is a bargain
www.ft.com
Climate diplomacy has long treated #environmental #crimes such as illegal logging, gold mining and wildlife trafficking as a sideshow. #COP30 offers an opportunity to fix that. My latest with @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/f544...
www.ft.com/content/f544...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 3
The New Metropolises of the Authoritarians
The 'freedom cities' championed by the Silicon Valley techno-libertarian elite and Donald Trump are enclaves of deregulated, digitally powered and centrally planned innovation. The challenge is not to...
en.ilsole24ore.com
“Freedom cities” championed by Silicon Valley’s techno-libertarian elite risk undermining democracy rather than shoring it up. Latest by Carlo Ratti and me in @sol24.bsky.social.
en.ilsole24ore.com/art/the-new-...
en.ilsole24ore.com/art/the-new-...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 2
EUA e Venezuela estão próximos de um conflito armado - mas preocupações domésticas e riscos internacionais podem impedir Washington de avançar
O aumento da presença militar dos EUA no Caribe levou o presidente venezuelano Nicolás Maduro a responder com exercícios militares
theconversation.com
O confronto entre EUA e Venezuela se aproxima. Ataques parecem plausíveis, mas Washington ainda pretende levar Caracas ao limite por meio de pressão, não de invasão. @theconversation.com
theconversation.com/eua-e-venezu...
theconversation.com/eua-e-venezu...
Robert Muggah
@muggah.bsky.social
· Oct 2
Venezuela and US edge toward war footing − but domestic concerns, international risks may hold Washington back
US military buildup in the Caribbean has prompted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to reciprocate with military drills.
theconversation.com
US-Venezuela showdown looms. Strikes seem plausible, but Washington still aims to push Caracas over the edge through pressure, not invasion. Latest from @us.theconversation.com.
theconversation.com/venezuela-an...
theconversation.com/venezuela-an...