Mr Market Miscalculates 🇪🇺🇺🇦🏴☠️
@mrmarketmis.bsky.social
Collector of shares | Value investor at hearth | Purveyor of fine things
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so”
https://mrmarketmiscalculates.substack.com/
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so”
https://mrmarketmiscalculates.substack.com/
Pinned
Book club 2024 bis.pdf
drive.google.com
The top 5 finance books I read this year (full pdf with ore details at the link below)
(1/6)
(1/6)
What the heck are we doing here, discussing fundamentals, interest rates, geopolitics, ...?
November 17, 2025 at 1:01 PM
What the heck are we doing here, discussing fundamentals, interest rates, geopolitics, ...?
Let me see if I got it right: the guys imposing tariffs unilaterally on the entire world are complaining because others are not quickly CUTTING tariffs on their products?!?
November 17, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Let me see if I got it right: the guys imposing tariffs unilaterally on the entire world are complaining because others are not quickly CUTTING tariffs on their products?!?
Disheartened by the recent mayoral election in NYC, Bill Ackman is now giving advice on love affairs
November 16, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Disheartened by the recent mayoral election in NYC, Bill Ackman is now giving advice on love affairs
ok, this is the peak: SELL EVERYTHING!
(yes, it's THAT Gary Black...)
(yes, it's THAT Gary Black...)
November 16, 2025 at 5:57 PM
ok, this is the peak: SELL EVERYTHING!
(yes, it's THAT Gary Black...)
(yes, it's THAT Gary Black...)
Half the country already knews (the other half doesn't care because they've never been outside their county): it will take decades, not just a new president, to undo the damages this administration is doing at the international level
America’s policy shifts have opened up numerous opportunities for China to increase its global influence in the coming year. Three stand out
American isolationism is a golden opportunity for China
Donald Trump’s unpredictability is helping China in its contest with America for global influence. In 2026 Chinese leaders will continue playing a canny game
econ.st
November 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Half the country already knews (the other half doesn't care because they've never been outside their county): it will take decades, not just a new president, to undo the damages this administration is doing at the international level
They are complaining loudly because Pope Leo is also trying to break (or at least reform) Opus Dei, which is traditionally aligned with the US right wing and a big sponsor
The U.S. bishops defended migrant families. Tom Homan snapped. Nan Hayworth called Pope Leo a “tool of our enemies.” Tim Burchett accused the church of getting rich off of sex trafficking.
Matt Walsh, Lara Logan, and the rest joined in. This is what MAGA anti-Catholicism looks like.
Matt Walsh, Lara Logan, and the rest joined in. This is what MAGA anti-Catholicism looks like.
“Pope Leo Is a Tool of Our Enemies”: Homan Leads MAGA Attacks as Hayworth, Others Pile On
It’s the latest MAGA attack on Pope Leo’s pro-immigrant stance. Disgraced border chief Tom Homan — caught taking a $50,000 bribe in a Cava takeout bag — led the charge against Leo and the bishops.
www.thelettersfromleo.com
November 16, 2025 at 11:30 AM
They are complaining loudly because Pope Leo is also trying to break (or at least reform) Opus Dei, which is traditionally aligned with the US right wing and a big sponsor
Take a 20% haircut to merge into a public traded vehicle ("you wanted the famed illiquidity premium? well, too bad...")
Can't wait to see how retail investors are going to get screwed
Can't wait to see how retail investors are going to get screwed
Blue Owl private credit fund merger leaves some investors facing 20% hit on.ft.com/48hR6Hq
Blue Owl private credit fund merger leaves some investors facing 20% hit
Asset manager blocks redemptions from one of its first private debt vehicles targeting wealthy individuals
on.ft.com
November 16, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Take a 20% haircut to merge into a public traded vehicle ("you wanted the famed illiquidity premium? well, too bad...")
Can't wait to see how retail investors are going to get screwed
Can't wait to see how retail investors are going to get screwed
Does slapping people with a dildo in a hangar count as "political vulnerability"? (copyright @keubiko.bsky.social)
The long knives are out, adding to Pulte’s rough week:
“.. Some administration officials have grown wary of Pulte’s unorthodox and aggressive tactics and have been gathering information on what they see as his missteps and political vulnerabilities, ..”
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
“.. Some administration officials have grown wary of Pulte’s unorthodox and aggressive tactics and have been gathering information on what they see as his missteps and political vulnerabilities, ..”
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
November 15, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Does slapping people with a dildo in a hangar count as "political vulnerability"? (copyright @keubiko.bsky.social)
"CoreWeave-Tied Data Center Debt Tests Strength of Flooded Market"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 15, 2025 at 3:08 PM
"CoreWeave-Tied Data Center Debt Tests Strength of Flooded Market"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 15, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Did he tell Jamie Dimon about it at Wednesday's dinner at the WH or will it be a nice surprise?
bsky.app/profile/mrma...
bsky.app/profile/mrma...
*TRUMP: SEEKING PROBE INTO EPSTEIN RELATIONSHIP W/ JP MORGAN
November 14, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Did he tell Jamie Dimon about it at Wednesday's dinner at the WH or will it be a nice surprise?
bsky.app/profile/mrma...
bsky.app/profile/mrma...
What do you mean "HODL"???
Be a man and BTFD!
Be a man and BTFD!
November 14, 2025 at 7:16 PM
What do you mean "HODL"???
Be a man and BTFD!
Be a man and BTFD!
Maybe it's just me, but these days I wouldn't post clips of Trump alone in the Oval Office handing candies to kids...
November 14, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Maybe it's just me, but these days I wouldn't post clips of Trump alone in the Oval Office handing candies to kids...
Interesting takeaways from MUFG on the US-China deal
TL;DR
- Tactical (not strategic) and short-term
- Not transformative (more transactional): several issues remain unresolved
- For US: agriculture sector damages remain and modest inflation relief
--> China leverage > US leverage
TL;DR
- Tactical (not strategic) and short-term
- Not transformative (more transactional): several issues remain unresolved
- For US: agriculture sector damages remain and modest inflation relief
--> China leverage > US leverage
November 14, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Interesting takeaways from MUFG on the US-China deal
TL;DR
- Tactical (not strategic) and short-term
- Not transformative (more transactional): several issues remain unresolved
- For US: agriculture sector damages remain and modest inflation relief
--> China leverage > US leverage
TL;DR
- Tactical (not strategic) and short-term
- Not transformative (more transactional): several issues remain unresolved
- For US: agriculture sector damages remain and modest inflation relief
--> China leverage > US leverage
Polo soon to surpass baseball as America's National Pastime
November 14, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Polo soon to surpass baseball as America's National Pastime
Nothing to see here, please move along
"S&P: US corporate bankruptcies tick up in October; annual filings near 15-year high"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"S&P: US corporate bankruptcies tick up in October; annual filings near 15-year high"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 14, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Nothing to see here, please move along
"S&P: US corporate bankruptcies tick up in October; annual filings near 15-year high"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"S&P: US corporate bankruptcies tick up in October; annual filings near 15-year high"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
How to be a billionaire
Step 1: overleverage your company (because it's almost free...) to create an empire
Step 2: complain to the EU that it needs to save your company and sector (after you heavily campaigned pro-Brexit...)
Step 1: overleverage your company (because it's almost free...) to create an empire
Step 2: complain to the EU that it needs to save your company and sector (after you heavily campaigned pro-Brexit...)
November 14, 2025 at 8:07 AM
How to be a billionaire
Step 1: overleverage your company (because it's almost free...) to create an empire
Step 2: complain to the EU that it needs to save your company and sector (after you heavily campaigned pro-Brexit...)
Step 1: overleverage your company (because it's almost free...) to create an empire
Step 2: complain to the EU that it needs to save your company and sector (after you heavily campaigned pro-Brexit...)
So you use the Robinhood app because you're cool, and trendy and tech-driven, but misteriulsy between 9am and 7pm you need cash delivered to your door in a sealed paper bag?!?
November 14, 2025 at 7:56 AM
So you use the Robinhood app because you're cool, and trendy and tech-driven, but misteriulsy between 9am and 7pm you need cash delivered to your door in a sealed paper bag?!?
Old enough to remember this was at the core of Parmalat's fraud (i.e., there was no cash)
"Other lenders were also puzzled by First Brands’ willingness to raise debt at such a high cost despite reporting healthy cash balances"
[another great reporting by @bondhack.ft.com and team at FT]
"Other lenders were also puzzled by First Brands’ willingness to raise debt at such a high cost despite reporting healthy cash balances"
[another great reporting by @bondhack.ft.com and team at FT]
How Apollo, Soros and others spotted red flags at First Brands
Small group of businesses avoided losses on car parts supplier’s collapse by refusing credit or cutting exposure
www.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Old enough to remember this was at the core of Parmalat's fraud (i.e., there was no cash)
"Other lenders were also puzzled by First Brands’ willingness to raise debt at such a high cost despite reporting healthy cash balances"
[another great reporting by @bondhack.ft.com and team at FT]
"Other lenders were also puzzled by First Brands’ willingness to raise debt at such a high cost despite reporting healthy cash balances"
[another great reporting by @bondhack.ft.com and team at FT]
It only took them 6 months to realise that US companies/consumers pay the tariffs, not foreign countries...
November 14, 2025 at 7:26 AM
It only took them 6 months to realise that US companies/consumers pay the tariffs, not foreign countries...
It will never not be funny that periodically investors need to rediscover credit risk (and duration)
November 14, 2025 at 7:23 AM
It will never not be funny that periodically investors need to rediscover credit risk (and duration)
Is it because the US is already 'full'?
*RUBIO SUGGESTS OBESITY AS REASON TO DENY VISAS: POLITICO
November 13, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Is it because the US is already 'full'?
Now do Chamath
'Scaramucci’s ‘Opportunity Zone’ Bet Likely to Be a Loss for Clients"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
'Scaramucci’s ‘Opportunity Zone’ Bet Likely to Be a Loss for Clients"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 13, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Now do Chamath
'Scaramucci’s ‘Opportunity Zone’ Bet Likely to Be a Loss for Clients"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
'Scaramucci’s ‘Opportunity Zone’ Bet Likely to Be a Loss for Clients"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
So it was better when the government was closed?
November 13, 2025 at 7:36 PM
So it was better when the government was closed?