Miles Kellerman
@mileskellerman.bsky.social
Assistant Professor at Leiden University's Institute of Security and Global Affairs. Working on the intersections of finance, crime, and international politics.
Website: mileskellerman.com
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/mileskellerman
Website: mileskellerman.com
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/mileskellerman
Before the Venezuela operation, a user made $400k on Polymarket betting against Maduro.
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
mileskellerman.substack.com
January 7, 2026 at 10:41 AM
Before the Venezuela operation, a user made $400k on Polymarket betting against Maduro.
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
My head is spinning as Trump goes full neo-royalist. Venezuela becomes a tool to redistribute oil revenues to those of Trump's choosing. Very similar to the exceptions and investment deals tied to tariff negotiations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 7, 2026 at 12:39 AM
My head is spinning as Trump goes full neo-royalist. Venezuela becomes a tool to redistribute oil revenues to those of Trump's choosing. Very similar to the exceptions and investment deals tied to tariff negotiations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
With suspiciously perfect timing, someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's ousting.
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
mileskellerman.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 4:37 PM
With suspiciously perfect timing, someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's ousting.
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
5/This is not a world marked by spheres of interest in the traditional sense because the focus is not about competing blocks. It is about extraction and dominance for the insider elite clique.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
The Trump Doctrine in Venezuela
Richard Haass explains why the US military intervention and arrest of Nicolás Maduro will play well in Beijing and Moscow.
www.project-syndicate.org
January 4, 2026 at 3:07 PM
5/This is not a world marked by spheres of interest in the traditional sense because the focus is not about competing blocks. It is about extraction and dominance for the insider elite clique.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
“We” are in the oil-selling business. The President of the United States claims Venezuela’s assets as his own.
January 3, 2026 at 5:26 PM
“We” are in the oil-selling business. The President of the United States claims Venezuela’s assets as his own.
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
January 3, 2026 at 1:41 PM
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Karen Budd-Falen, the No. 3 at the Interior Department, didn’t disclose a $3.5 million water-rights contract between her husband and the developers of a Nevada mine, records show.
By NYT Lisa Friedman
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/c...
By NYT Lisa Friedman
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/c...
The Trump Administration Approved a Big Lithium Mine. A Top Official’s Husband Profited.
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 11:10 AM
Karen Budd-Falen, the No. 3 at the Interior Department, didn’t disclose a $3.5 million water-rights contract between her husband and the developers of a Nevada mine, records show.
By NYT Lisa Friedman
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/c...
By NYT Lisa Friedman
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/c...
This is a huge moment, a complete integration of crypto into the state-regulated sphere and the realm of companies likely to be bailed out by taxpayers in times of stress
Crypto can only survive long-term if it gets access to the publicly backed banking system.
In one fell swoop, the OCC—the regulator for national banks—just approved five (5) bank charter applications by crypto companies.
www.occ.gov/news-issuanc...
In one fell swoop, the OCC—the regulator for national banks—just approved five (5) bank charter applications by crypto companies.
www.occ.gov/news-issuanc...
December 12, 2025 at 6:02 PM
This is a huge moment, a complete integration of crypto into the state-regulated sphere and the realm of companies likely to be bailed out by taxpayers in times of stress
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Russia’s well-resourced financial intelligence unit, Rosfinmonitoring, is indeed capable of extensive oversight. But it uses these tools against the Kremlin’s conception of bad actors, writes @mileskellerman.bsky.social. bit.ly/4oMGEg3
Will the EU’s Blacklisting of Russia Make a Difference?
Miles Kellerman concludes that it will marginally improve the pressure campaign on the Kremlin but risks collateral damage.
bit.ly
December 12, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Russia’s well-resourced financial intelligence unit, Rosfinmonitoring, is indeed capable of extensive oversight. But it uses these tools against the Kremlin’s conception of bad actors, writes @mileskellerman.bsky.social. bit.ly/4oMGEg3
I have a new op-ed in @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on the EU adding Russia to its AML blacklist (no, it wasn’t already on it!).
It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
Will the EU’s Blacklisting of Russia Make a Difference?
Miles Kellerman concludes that it will marginally improve the pressure campaign on the Kremlin but risks collateral damage.
www.project-syndicate.org
December 12, 2025 at 4:32 PM
I have a new op-ed in @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on the EU adding Russia to its AML blacklist (no, it wasn’t already on it!).
It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
1/AI chip sale to China strike a tectonic shift in US national security policy? Whats diving it:"It is a system that closely reflects what Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman have referred to as neo-royalism...The winning clique is clear: Nvidia, Trump’s inner circle"
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 12:42 PM
1/AI chip sale to China strike a tectonic shift in US national security policy? Whats diving it:"It is a system that closely reflects what Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman have referred to as neo-royalism...The winning clique is clear: Nvidia, Trump’s inner circle"
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Last week, the DOJ shut down a major network for smuggling Nvidia H200 chips into China. This week, Trump says those controls no longer apply.
U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.
www.ft.com/content/ac63...
U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.
www.ft.com/content/ac63...
Nvidia can sell H200 AI chips to China, Donald Trump says
President says other chipmakers can also resume exports and ‘25% will be paid’ to the US
www.ft.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Last week, the DOJ shut down a major network for smuggling Nvidia H200 chips into China. This week, Trump says those controls no longer apply.
U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.
www.ft.com/content/ac63...
U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.
www.ft.com/content/ac63...
With every action a reaction. Chinese companies are finding workarounds to sidestep Beijing's export controls.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
Exclusive | Chinese Rare-Earth Dealers Find Ways to Dodge Beijing’s Export Restrictions
Companies are tweaking magnet formulas and embedding them in motors to keep selling to the West.
www.wsj.com
December 3, 2025 at 12:43 PM
With every action a reaction. Chinese companies are finding workarounds to sidestep Beijing's export controls.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
"In White House meetings, Mr. Sacks echoed [Nvidia CEO] Mr. Huang’s ideas that the best way to beat China would be to flood the world with American technology. Mr. Sacks worked to eliminate Biden-era restrictions on Nvidia and other American chip companies’ sales to foreign countries."
We just published a deep look into David Sacks, the White House's AI and Crypto czar. The story examines how he has been able keep hundreds of stakes in AI-related and crypto companies as he influences gov policy in those very industries.
Here's what we found:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/t...
Here's what we found:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/t...
Silicon Valley’s Man in the White House Is Benefiting Himself and His Friends
www.nytimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 8:19 PM
"In White House meetings, Mr. Sacks echoed [Nvidia CEO] Mr. Huang’s ideas that the best way to beat China would be to flood the world with American technology. Mr. Sacks worked to eliminate Biden-era restrictions on Nvidia and other American chip companies’ sales to foreign countries."
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
This story should be covered waaaaayy more than it is.
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
Nicolas Guillou, French ICC judge sanctioned by the US: 'You are effectively blacklisted by much of the world's banking system'
Six judges and three prosecutors at the International Criminal Court have been sanctioned by the Trump administration. In an interview with Le Monde, Guillou discusses the impact of these measures on ...
www.lemonde.fr
November 24, 2025 at 8:13 PM
This story should be covered waaaaayy more than it is.
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Looking forward to our next PEPP talk with @huysmans.bsky.social, December 2 in the Hague cc. @mileskellerman.bsky.social
November 20, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Looking forward to our next PEPP talk with @huysmans.bsky.social, December 2 in the Hague cc. @mileskellerman.bsky.social
ASML CEO confirms company intends to retain its headquarters in the Netherlands.
Also discusses Nexperia, tariff exemption, Mistral, and European regulatory landscape
m.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ7H...
Also discusses Nexperia, tariff exemption, Mistral, and European regulatory landscape
m.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ7H...
What does ASML expect from a new Dutch government? | Christophe Fouquet | Buitenhof
YouTube video by Buitenhof
m.youtube.com
November 16, 2025 at 7:22 PM
ASML CEO confirms company intends to retain its headquarters in the Netherlands.
Also discusses Nexperia, tariff exemption, Mistral, and European regulatory landscape
m.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ7H...
Also discusses Nexperia, tariff exemption, Mistral, and European regulatory landscape
m.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ7H...
This was a fantastic overview by @johannespetry.bsky.social of China’s attempts to create alternative (i.e. non-US) financial infrastructures.
Best stat: “by March 2025…RMB accounted for 54.3% of China’s total trade settlement.” @phenomenalworld.bsky.social
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-s...
Best stat: “by March 2025…RMB accounted for 54.3% of China’s total trade settlement.” @phenomenalworld.bsky.social
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-s...
A State-led Financial Empire | Johannes Petry
Since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, China has steadily expanded its role in the global financial system. Through cross-border settlement networks, controlled conduits for foreign portfolio flows, ...
www.phenomenalworld.org
November 16, 2025 at 5:30 PM
This was a fantastic overview by @johannespetry.bsky.social of China’s attempts to create alternative (i.e. non-US) financial infrastructures.
Best stat: “by March 2025…RMB accounted for 54.3% of China’s total trade settlement.” @phenomenalworld.bsky.social
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-s...
Best stat: “by March 2025…RMB accounted for 54.3% of China’s total trade settlement.” @phenomenalworld.bsky.social
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-s...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
We are losing the fight against financial crime.
In a new post, I propose an alternative solution: let's make a market for detection.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/financial-...
In a new post, I propose an alternative solution: let's make a market for detection.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/financial-...
Financial Crime Bounty Hunters
Our existing systems for detecting financial crime are failing. In a new article, I propose an alternative solution: create a market for detection.
mileskellerman.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:18 PM
We are losing the fight against financial crime.
In a new post, I propose an alternative solution: let's make a market for detection.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/financial-...
In a new post, I propose an alternative solution: let's make a market for detection.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/financial-...
We are losing the fight against financial crime.
In a new post, I propose an alternative solution: let's make a market for detection.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/financial-...
In a new post, I propose an alternative solution: let's make a market for detection.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/financial-...
Financial Crime Bounty Hunters
Our existing systems for detecting financial crime are failing. In a new article, I propose an alternative solution: create a market for detection.
mileskellerman.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:18 PM
We are losing the fight against financial crime.
In a new post, I propose an alternative solution: let's make a market for detection.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/financial-...
In a new post, I propose an alternative solution: let's make a market for detection.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/financial-...
“Maybe I will have to answer the question of ‘Has everything been below the cap?’, but it was below the cap, so . . . I’m not scared to tell the people that the source of my business was Russian oil.”
Give a cap, they’ll take a mile
www.ft.com/content/ec74...
Give a cap, they’ll take a mile
www.ft.com/content/ec74...
How this 31-year-old made $250mn in 30 months
Christopher Eppinger kept trading Russian oil when sanctions meant others stopped
www.ft.com
November 8, 2025 at 8:44 AM
“Maybe I will have to answer the question of ‘Has everything been below the cap?’, but it was below the cap, so . . . I’m not scared to tell the people that the source of my business was Russian oil.”
Give a cap, they’ll take a mile
www.ft.com/content/ec74...
Give a cap, they’ll take a mile
www.ft.com/content/ec74...
🔥New publication!🔥
We are losing the fight against financial crime. In a new article, now forthcoming in the Berkeley Business Law Journal, I propose a novel market-based solution: financial crime bounty hunters.
Short thread (🧵)
#lawsky #polisky #econsky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
We are losing the fight against financial crime. In a new article, now forthcoming in the Berkeley Business Law Journal, I propose a novel market-based solution: financial crime bounty hunters.
Short thread (🧵)
#lawsky #polisky #econsky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Licensed Detection Agents: The Case for Financial Crime Bounty Hunters
<p>Policymakers around the world have outsourced the detection of money laundering, market manipulation, and other financial crimes to the private sector. This
papers.ssrn.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:27 PM
🔥New publication!🔥
We are losing the fight against financial crime. In a new article, now forthcoming in the Berkeley Business Law Journal, I propose a novel market-based solution: financial crime bounty hunters.
Short thread (🧵)
#lawsky #polisky #econsky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
We are losing the fight against financial crime. In a new article, now forthcoming in the Berkeley Business Law Journal, I propose a novel market-based solution: financial crime bounty hunters.
Short thread (🧵)
#lawsky #polisky #econsky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Truly seems we're on the verge of a huge shock to the car industry over the Nexperia crisis - will keep track of things in this rolling thread
EU's car-making body said today assembly lines in Europe "might only be days away" from grinding to a halt
EU's car-making body said today assembly lines in Europe "might only be days away" from grinding to a halt
Critical chip shortage worsens by the day
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) is increasingly concerned by imminent disruption to European vehicle manufacturing due to the block in supply of foundational microchips that are essential for our members’ manufacturing.
www.acea.auto
October 29, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Truly seems we're on the verge of a huge shock to the car industry over the Nexperia crisis - will keep track of things in this rolling thread
EU's car-making body said today assembly lines in Europe "might only be days away" from grinding to a halt
EU's car-making body said today assembly lines in Europe "might only be days away" from grinding to a halt