mikewwilson.bsky.social
@mikewwilson.bsky.social
Reposted by mikewwilson.bsky.social
The CMI has released its quarterly analysis of death rates in England and Wales, covering Q4 2024.
Based on death registrations, death rates in 2024 were are a record low, slightly better than the previous best year on record, 2019.
Death rates were 4% lower than 2023, a significant improvement.
Based on death registrations, death rates in 2024 were are a record low, slightly better than the previous best year on record, 2019.
Death rates were 4% lower than 2023, a significant improvement.
January 15, 2025 at 4:10 PM
The CMI has released its quarterly analysis of death rates in England and Wales, covering Q4 2024.
Based on death registrations, death rates in 2024 were are a record low, slightly better than the previous best year on record, 2019.
Death rates were 4% lower than 2023, a significant improvement.
Based on death registrations, death rates in 2024 were are a record low, slightly better than the previous best year on record, 2019.
Death rates were 4% lower than 2023, a significant improvement.
Age-standardised mortality in 2024 in the UK MIGHT have beaten 2019 and become the best on record. This is after an unusually benign autumn and start to winter, and despite a fairly large wave of influenza (among other things) right at the end of the year. 1/7
January 15, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Age-standardised mortality in 2024 in the UK MIGHT have beaten 2019 and become the best on record. This is after an unusually benign autumn and start to winter, and despite a fairly large wave of influenza (among other things) right at the end of the year. 1/7
Reposted by mikewwilson.bsky.social
Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
January 15, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.
Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.
It's going to be very interesting to see what next week's UK mortality data holds. Given recent NHS pressure, 2024 seems odds on to finish a little worse than 2019. But the relative magnitude of the late year 'bumps' in 2022 and 2024 will be one way to compare impacts of NHS issues in the 2 years.
Death rates year-to-date continue to closely track the best year on record (2019).
Ordinarily we expect death rates to fall over a 5-year period, so this isn’t as good news as it sounds. But it’s a big improvement on 2020-23.
We’ll get 3 weeks’ data on 15 Jan.
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
Ordinarily we expect death rates to fall over a 5-year period, so this isn’t as good news as it sounds. But it’s a big improvement on 2020-23.
We’ll get 3 weeks’ data on 15 Jan.
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
January 8, 2025 at 2:12 PM
It's going to be very interesting to see what next week's UK mortality data holds. Given recent NHS pressure, 2024 seems odds on to finish a little worse than 2019. But the relative magnitude of the late year 'bumps' in 2022 and 2024 will be one way to compare impacts of NHS issues in the 2 years.
Reposted by mikewwilson.bsky.social
Something frequently encountered is perpetuation of ignorance. Accounts that try to shutdown any discussion about vaccines being highly beneficial or SARS-COV-2 not affecting us as it did without immune memory. Whataboutism, personal attacks, moving goalposts, sealioning, etc to shut it down.
1/2
1/2
December 31, 2024 at 10:05 AM
Something frequently encountered is perpetuation of ignorance. Accounts that try to shutdown any discussion about vaccines being highly beneficial or SARS-COV-2 not affecting us as it did without immune memory. Whataboutism, personal attacks, moving goalposts, sealioning, etc to shut it down.
1/2
1/2
Reposted by mikewwilson.bsky.social
Everything about the H5N1 situation is concerning and needs to be taken seriously. But the way each new development is assumed to be a step towards another pandemic is probably not really an accurate way to think about it. But it is human nature for us to see this as an inevitable march towards that
December 25, 2024 at 8:51 PM
Everything about the H5N1 situation is concerning and needs to be taken seriously. But the way each new development is assumed to be a step towards another pandemic is probably not really an accurate way to think about it. But it is human nature for us to see this as an inevitable march towards that
Reposted by mikewwilson.bsky.social
Headlines are warning of a 'quad-demic' about the hit the NHS, but data show that a 'quad-demic' is v unlikely.
The worry is not that the NHS is about to be hit by unprecedented demand, but that it is unable to cope with normal demand.
I've written about it here
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
The worry is not that the NHS is about to be hit by unprecedented demand, but that it is unable to cope with normal demand.
I've written about it here
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
Is the NHS facing a 'quad-demic' this winter?
No, but it is finding it harder and harder to cope with 'normal' winter pressures. Plus flu might still have a nasty kicker in store this winter.
open.substack.com
December 16, 2024 at 5:43 PM
Headlines are warning of a 'quad-demic' about the hit the NHS, but data show that a 'quad-demic' is v unlikely.
The worry is not that the NHS is about to be hit by unprecedented demand, but that it is unable to cope with normal demand.
I've written about it here
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
The worry is not that the NHS is about to be hit by unprecedented demand, but that it is unable to cope with normal demand.
I've written about it here
open.substack.com/pub/christin...
A really interesting way to visualise the relationship between risk factors and outcomes (e.g. deaths). As the author says, the hopeful corollary is that many deaths could be prevented in multiple ways.
I've represented the five people and their risk factors in these boxes.
Hepatitis is pink, smoking is dark blue, alcohol is camel brown.
When their box gets filled up, they've accumulated enough risk to die within a given period.
Hepatitis is pink, smoking is dark blue, alcohol is camel brown.
When their box gets filled up, they've accumulated enough risk to die within a given period.
December 13, 2024 at 2:08 PM
A really interesting way to visualise the relationship between risk factors and outcomes (e.g. deaths). As the author says, the hopeful corollary is that many deaths could be prevented in multiple ways.