Marius Mehrl
@mehrl.bsky.social
Lecturer, University of Leeds. Editor, @conflictmanagement.bsky.social Armed conflict, authoritarian politics. And Basketball. Website: https://essl.leeds.ac.uk/politics/staff/2078/dr-marius-mehrl
New paper out in @fpajrnl.bsky.social - tldr: Recipient leadership turnover does not affect the continuation of existing international arms transfers relationships. In the paper, I discuss why this is surprising and how we can make sense of it.
Does leadership turnover in recipient states reduce arms orders from previous suppliers? Mehrl (2025) finds no empirical evidence that it does.
academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
August 18, 2025 at 12:54 PM
New paper out in @fpajrnl.bsky.social - tldr: Recipient leadership turnover does not affect the continuation of existing international arms transfers relationships. In the paper, I discuss why this is surprising and how we can make sense of it.
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨
Risse (2025) shows that democracies consistently support conventional arms control but back nuclear arms control only when resolutions are co-sponsored by other democracies.
academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
Risse (2025) shows that democracies consistently support conventional arms control but back nuclear arms control only when resolutions are co-sponsored by other democracies.
academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
August 10, 2025 at 9:25 PM
🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨
Risse (2025) shows that democracies consistently support conventional arms control but back nuclear arms control only when resolutions are co-sponsored by other democracies.
academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
Risse (2025) shows that democracies consistently support conventional arms control but back nuclear arms control only when resolutions are co-sponsored by other democracies.
academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
Well, turns out the deadline was extended until 20 June - 3 more days to submit! www.isanet.org/Conferences/...
June 17, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Well, turns out the deadline was extended until 20 June - 3 more days to submit! www.isanet.org/Conferences/...
Co-organsing a workshop on "“Defining, Measuring, Investigating, and Predicting Solidarity and International Solidarity” here and still open for submissions!
🌟We are still open for papers for our BISA-ISA Joint International Conference 2025! 🌟
'Transforming the International: Scholarship and Solidarity in a World of Inequalities'
Submit now 👉 buff.ly/hVecwF2
@eeeswg.bsky.social @bisasee.bsky.social @ipegbisa.bsky.social @gnobisa.bsky.social
'Transforming the International: Scholarship and Solidarity in a World of Inequalities'
Submit now 👉 buff.ly/hVecwF2
@eeeswg.bsky.social @bisasee.bsky.social @ipegbisa.bsky.social @gnobisa.bsky.social
buff.ly
June 12, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Co-organsing a workshop on "“Defining, Measuring, Investigating, and Predicting Solidarity and International Solidarity” here and still open for submissions!
Happy to have been a small part of this!
New publication alert! The article on the 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge is now out in JPR.
May 14, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Happy to have been a small part of this!
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
"The government's argument sounds plausible. There's just one problem. It doesn't fit the facts. And the government knows it."
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
There’s only one problem with Labour’s immigration plans: they’re completely untethered from reality | Jonathan Portes
The government’s new policy will take us back to an uglier, more dangerous place – and it’s not even supported by the data, says professor of public policy Jonathan Portes
www.theguardian.com
May 13, 2025 at 2:01 PM
"The government's argument sounds plausible. There's just one problem. It doesn't fit the facts. And the government knows it."
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Currently in FirstView: “Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations” by @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, Paul Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. The authors propose the Signed Exponential Random Graph Model (SERGM).
March 11, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Currently in FirstView: “Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations” by @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, Paul Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. The authors propose the Signed Exponential Random Graph Model (SERGM).
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
There are new #OpenAccess articles from @polanalysis.bsky.social available on the journal's #FirstView page -
cup.org/40mppbd
Inc. papers by @tara-slough.bsky.social, @devincaughey.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, @olsisblue.bsky.social, @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @pkoc.bsky.social & and more
cup.org/40mppbd
Inc. papers by @tara-slough.bsky.social, @devincaughey.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, @olsisblue.bsky.social, @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @pkoc.bsky.social & and more
January 17, 2025 at 1:45 PM
There are new #OpenAccess articles from @polanalysis.bsky.social available on the journal's #FirstView page -
cup.org/40mppbd
Inc. papers by @tara-slough.bsky.social, @devincaughey.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, @olsisblue.bsky.social, @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @pkoc.bsky.social & and more
cup.org/40mppbd
Inc. papers by @tara-slough.bsky.social, @devincaughey.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, @olsisblue.bsky.social, @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @pkoc.bsky.social & and more
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Foreign Legionnaires and Military Mutinies | Journal of @journalofgss.bsky.social
Abel Escribà-Folch Christopher Faulkner @mehrl.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/jogss/articl...
Abel Escribà-Folch Christopher Faulkner @mehrl.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/jogss/articl...
Foreign Legionnaires and Military Mutinies
Abstract. The composition of the armed forces is, by now, well established as a major factor determining the risk of coups d’état. However, military discon
academic.oup.com
February 16, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Foreign Legionnaires and Military Mutinies | Journal of @journalofgss.bsky.social
Abel Escribà-Folch Christopher Faulkner @mehrl.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/jogss/articl...
Abel Escribà-Folch Christopher Faulkner @mehrl.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/jogss/articl...
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
How does recruiting foreign nationals into the armed forces impact mutiny risk? 🤔 The answer isn’t simple! 💡Read the research by Abel Escribà-Folch, Christopher Faulkner, and @mehrl.bsky.social to uncover the complex dynamics at play.
🔍 Read their open-access article here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
🔍 Read their open-access article here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
February 18, 2025 at 9:15 AM
How does recruiting foreign nationals into the armed forces impact mutiny risk? 🤔 The answer isn’t simple! 💡Read the research by Abel Escribà-Folch, Christopher Faulkner, and @mehrl.bsky.social to uncover the complex dynamics at play.
🔍 Read their open-access article here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
🔍 Read their open-access article here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Spring is arriving (at least where we are), and so is CMPS issue 41(3), featuring six articles on the effects of UNHRC shaming and of civilian victimization, rough terrain insurgency, public attitudes on sanctions, airpower, and piracy. Articles are here:
Conflict Management and Peace Science - Volume 41, Number 3, May 01, 2024
Table of contents for Conflict Management and Peace Science, 41, 3, May 01, 2024
t.co
April 22, 2024 at 10:21 AM
Spring is arriving (at least where we are), and so is CMPS issue 41(3), featuring six articles on the effects of UNHRC shaming and of civilian victimization, rough terrain insurgency, public attitudes on sanctions, airpower, and piracy. Articles are here:
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
My 2021 book Making the World Safe for Dictatorship is now published as a paperback w/ Oxford University Press.
To celebrate I will put everyone who reposts this before March 21 into a random drawing & send the winner a free copy anywhere they happen to be in the world.
polisky dictatorsky
To celebrate I will put everyone who reposts this before March 21 into a random drawing & send the winner a free copy anywhere they happen to be in the world.
polisky dictatorsky
March 14, 2024 at 2:40 PM
My 2021 book Making the World Safe for Dictatorship is now published as a paperback w/ Oxford University Press.
To celebrate I will put everyone who reposts this before March 21 into a random drawing & send the winner a free copy anywhere they happen to be in the world.
polisky dictatorsky
To celebrate I will put everyone who reposts this before March 21 into a random drawing & send the winner a free copy anywhere they happen to be in the world.
polisky dictatorsky
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Did you know that in addition to regular articles, CMPS also publishes two other types of articles?
March 5, 2024 at 11:32 AM
Did you know that in addition to regular articles, CMPS also publishes two other types of articles?
Very happy to see "Preventing Dissent: Secret Police and Protests in Dictatorships" now published as a "just accepted" paper in @thejop.bsky.social! It's joint work with Ioannis Choulis and Abel Escribà Folch, examining how the presence of secret police organisations affects protests.
February 20, 2024 at 10:29 AM
Very happy to see "Preventing Dissent: Secret Police and Protests in Dictatorships" now published as a "just accepted" paper in @thejop.bsky.social! It's joint work with Ioannis Choulis and Abel Escribà Folch, examining how the presence of secret police organisations affects protests.
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
CMPS issue 41(2) is now available at journals.sagepub.com/toc/cmpb/41/2 and we are starting up threads summarizing our issues here on bsky! Issue 41(2) is a special issue on “New Research on Leaders and Peace Science”, edited by @jeffcarter.bsky.social.
Conflict Management and Peace Science - Volume 41, Number 2, Mar 01, 2024
Table of contents for Conflict Management and Peace Science, 41, 2, Mar 01, 2024
journals.sagepub.com
February 13, 2024 at 1:48 PM
CMPS issue 41(2) is now available at journals.sagepub.com/toc/cmpb/41/2 and we are starting up threads summarizing our issues here on bsky! Issue 41(2) is a special issue on “New Research on Leaders and Peace Science”, edited by @jeffcarter.bsky.social.
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Happy 2024! CMPS is now also on bsky, and we will have some exciting news and content here.
January 2, 2024 at 11:14 AM
Happy 2024! CMPS is now also on bsky, and we will have some exciting news and content here.
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Call for papers: The 23rd Jan Tinbergen Peace Science
Conference
17-19 June, 2024, Dublin City University, Ireland
Abstracts (max. 300 words) with a tentative title must be submitted via portal.europeanpeacescientists.org by December 31, 2023.
Conference
17-19 June, 2024, Dublin City University, Ireland
Abstracts (max. 300 words) with a tentative title must be submitted via portal.europeanpeacescientists.org by December 31, 2023.
December 6, 2023 at 9:48 AM
Call for papers: The 23rd Jan Tinbergen Peace Science
Conference
17-19 June, 2024, Dublin City University, Ireland
Abstracts (max. 300 words) with a tentative title must be submitted via portal.europeanpeacescientists.org by December 31, 2023.
Conference
17-19 June, 2024, Dublin City University, Ireland
Abstracts (max. 300 words) with a tentative title must be submitted via portal.europeanpeacescientists.org by December 31, 2023.
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Too often, the data that we use in Social Science research is pretty dodgy. May that be because of poor sampling, measurement problems, nonresponse, etc. So we either reject it or use it and hope for the best (maybe add a few caveats in our discussion).
November 30, 2023 at 12:40 PM
Too often, the data that we use in Social Science research is pretty dodgy. May that be because of poor sampling, measurement problems, nonresponse, etc. So we either reject it or use it and hope for the best (maybe add a few caveats in our discussion).
New paper with Abel Escribà Folch, studying the logic of autocrats' recruiting foreign legionnaires, out in Democratization. Legionnaire recruitment is associated with increased personalization and decreases the risk of coup attempts and mass protests. Available open access!
The dictator’s legionnaires: foreign recruitment, coups, and uprisings
Several countries recruit foreign nationals into their armed forces. This is despite the norm of citizen armies and the strong idea that individuals join the military to defend their home country w...
doi.org
November 15, 2023 at 11:35 AM
New paper with Abel Escribà Folch, studying the logic of autocrats' recruiting foreign legionnaires, out in Democratization. Legionnaire recruitment is associated with increased personalization and decreases the risk of coup attempts and mass protests. Available open access!
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Fresh off the press! Thrilled to see that this joint manuscript is finally out! Through an interdisciplinary lens, we have investigated the link between protracted displacement and housing systems in intermediary cities with a specific focus on the case of Syrians in Torbalı, Izmir, Türkiye.
Protracted displacement and housing systems in intermediary cities: the case of Syrians in Torbalı,...
This article investigates the dynamics of complex housing systems within the context of large-scale protracted displacement in Turkey/Türkiye. It presents new empirical findings from a qualitative .....
www.tandfonline.com
October 23, 2023 at 9:16 AM
Fresh off the press! Thrilled to see that this joint manuscript is finally out! Through an interdisciplinary lens, we have investigated the link between protracted displacement and housing systems in intermediary cities with a specific focus on the case of Syrians in Torbalı, Izmir, Türkiye.
Great to have this paper w/ D. Seussler & P. Thurner published in the Review of International Organizations! We study the role of international rivalries in the Arms trade, focusing on arms transfers of the Interwar period.
Sharing rivals, sending weapons: Rivalry and cooperation in the international arms trade, 1920–193...
States must navigate the structure of the international system in their relations with other states. One crucial component of this structure are rivalries as they indicate latent threat to states. Riv...
link.springer.com
October 17, 2023 at 9:53 AM
Great to have this paper w/ D. Seussler & P. Thurner published in the Review of International Organizations! We study the role of international rivalries in the Arms trade, focusing on arms transfers of the Interwar period.
Reposted by Marius Mehrl
Great workshop on forecasting conflict with VIEWS and the German Foreign Office, presenting joint work with @mehrl.bsky.social and Cornelius Fritz. #ConflictSky #PoliSky
October 12, 2023 at 7:47 AM
Great workshop on forecasting conflict with VIEWS and the German Foreign Office, presenting joint work with @mehrl.bsky.social and Cornelius Fritz. #ConflictSky #PoliSky
Having just cycled around Leeds... Yes.
Looks dumb, right?
This is how we design many cities.
#CarDependency
This is how we design many cities.
#CarDependency
October 6, 2023 at 11:24 AM
Having just cycled around Leeds... Yes.