Tony Corke
@matterofstats.bsky.social
#rstats, maths, science, quirky stuff, and Aussie Rules football.
@matterofstats on Twitter
"Your data is not required to follow a well-defined distribution"
@matterofstats on Twitter
"Your data is not required to follow a well-defined distribution"
Pinned
Reposted by Tony Corke
Es ist wieder soweit! It's time to take down and responsibly dispose of your xmas tree. Please consider the Christmas tree cannon
January 2, 2026 at 12:42 PM
Es ist wieder soweit! It's time to take down and responsibly dispose of your xmas tree. Please consider the Christmas tree cannon
Bit worried Little Ted might’ve had one too many before midnight
December 31, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Bit worried Little Ted might’ve had one too many before midnight
Starting the New Year with a bang
December 31, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Starting the New Year with a bang
Happy New Year to all my fellow Gregorian calendar adherents
December 31, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Happy New Year to all my fellow Gregorian calendar adherents
Reposted by Tony Corke
good technical documentation focuses on:
- personas for how different people will use the tool,
- decisions that can be made with said tool, and
- actions made with it
- personas for how different people will use the tool,
- decisions that can be made with said tool, and
- actions made with it
December 30, 2025 at 1:34 AM
good technical documentation focuses on:
- personas for how different people will use the tool,
- decisions that can be made with said tool, and
- actions made with it
- personas for how different people will use the tool,
- decisions that can be made with said tool, and
- actions made with it
Used Perplexity Pro AI to create an R script to forecast next game AFL PRs using a players' (irregularly spaced) time series of previous ratings. Tuned the half dozen or so parameters
Had an MAE in 2025 of under 4 rating points
Had an MAE in 2025 of under 4 rating points
December 30, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Used Perplexity Pro AI to create an R script to forecast next game AFL PRs using a players' (irregularly spaced) time series of previous ratings. Tuned the half dozen or so parameters
Had an MAE in 2025 of under 4 rating points
Had an MAE in 2025 of under 4 rating points
Yelling progressively louder at your Google Nest Hub to ‘stop’ before realising that it’s actually the iPhone next to it on your bedside table whose alarm is going off
#VeryFirstWorldProblems
#VeryFirstWorldProblems
December 25, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Yelling progressively louder at your Google Nest Hub to ‘stop’ before realising that it’s actually the iPhone next to it on your bedside table whose alarm is going off
#VeryFirstWorldProblems
#VeryFirstWorldProblems
A visual representation of an isotherm, this one created by a wall-mounted air conditioner
December 25, 2025 at 12:47 AM
A visual representation of an isotherm, this one created by a wall-mounted air conditioner
This predictive model rarely explains more than 10% of the variability for any single season, but explains almost 50% of the variability when all seasons are considered at once
December 24, 2025 at 1:38 AM
This predictive model rarely explains more than 10% of the variability for any single season, but explains almost 50% of the variability when all seasons are considered at once
I think this includes an interesting use case for AI in analytics
Does knowing a UK Chase contestant's occupation provide any predictive value?
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/12/20/does-a-contestants-self-described-job-title-tell-us-anything-more
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/12/20/does-a-contestants-self-described-job-title-tell-us-anything-more
Does a UK Chase Contestant's Self-Described Occupation Tell Us Anything More? — Matter of Stats
In the previous blog post, I mentioned in passing that the new UK Chase data source I’d kindly been given included occupation , but said no more about it there. That was largely because I knew that ...
www.matterofstats.com
December 21, 2025 at 5:15 AM
I think this includes an interesting use case for AI in analytics
Does knowing a UK Chase contestant's occupation provide any predictive value?
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/12/20/does-a-contestants-self-described-job-title-tell-us-anything-more
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/12/20/does-a-contestants-self-described-job-title-tell-us-anything-more
Does a UK Chase Contestant's Self-Described Occupation Tell Us Anything More? — Matter of Stats
In the previous blog post, I mentioned in passing that the new UK Chase data source I’d kindly been given included occupation , but said no more about it there. That was largely because I knew that ...
www.matterofstats.com
December 21, 2025 at 5:15 AM
Does knowing a UK Chase contestant's occupation provide any predictive value?
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/12/20/does-a-contestants-self-described-job-title-tell-us-anything-more
www.matterofstats.com/general-probability-and-statis/2025/12/20/does-a-contestants-self-described-job-title-tell-us-anything-more
Just at a BYO restaurant and they asked if we needed glasses for the wine …
December 20, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Just at a BYO restaurant and they asked if we needed glasses for the wine …
Why it’s important to always check your units
December 17, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Why it’s important to always check your units
Reposted by Tony Corke
Goes up to Xi. Goes up to 11.
December 16, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Goes up to Xi. Goes up to 11.
Does anybody else who uses an XBox style controller in driving games sometimes find that their brain decides to push the thumb stick in the opposite direction to what's required, or is that just me?
December 16, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Does anybody else who uses an XBox style controller in driving games sometimes find that their brain decides to push the thumb stick in the opposite direction to what's required, or is that just me?
Reposted by Tony Corke
I hate how much I enjoyed this
BIG NERD DESIGN ENERGY 🫦
BIG NERD DESIGN ENERGY 🫦
December 13, 2025 at 5:47 PM
I hate how much I enjoyed this
BIG NERD DESIGN ENERGY 🫦
BIG NERD DESIGN ENERGY 🫦
Refuse to speculate about motive. It’s completely unhelpful now. Just reach out and comfort the grieving and traumatized and think deeply about what can be done to prevent others from perpetrating similar atrocities
December 14, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Refuse to speculate about motive. It’s completely unhelpful now. Just reach out and comfort the grieving and traumatized and think deeply about what can be done to prevent others from perpetrating similar atrocities
Reposted by Tony Corke
Robin Ince reveals to last night’s audience at a recording of Infinite Monkey Cage that the BBC has forced him to resign over his support of trans people
December 13, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Robin Ince reveals to last night’s audience at a recording of Infinite Monkey Cage that the BBC has forced him to resign over his support of trans people
Reposted by Tony Corke
Kinda scary that you're publishing a paper and then some of the best econometricians of your generation jump on the replication package and start to publicly dissect the results—not gonna lie. 😅
I was also bored and pulled up the replication package.
The results are quite sensitive in aggregate to needing the controls. Here's the replication of Figure 3, including the case w/o controls:
The results are quite sensitive in aggregate to needing the controls. Here's the replication of Figure 3, including the case w/o controls:
December 13, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Kinda scary that you're publishing a paper and then some of the best econometricians of your generation jump on the replication package and start to publicly dissect the results—not gonna lie. 😅
Reposted by Tony Corke
Here are three attempts by the newly released ChatGPT 5.2 to write a cryptic clue for MARMALADE.
Jam made from a ram’s tail end? (9)
Spread from fruit, mostly orange, made at home (9)
Sweet preserve made when a dram’s ale is mixed (9)
We're still safe... for now
CC @dontattempt.bsky.social
Jam made from a ram’s tail end? (9)
Spread from fruit, mostly orange, made at home (9)
Sweet preserve made when a dram’s ale is mixed (9)
We're still safe... for now
CC @dontattempt.bsky.social
December 13, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Here are three attempts by the newly released ChatGPT 5.2 to write a cryptic clue for MARMALADE.
Jam made from a ram’s tail end? (9)
Spread from fruit, mostly orange, made at home (9)
Sweet preserve made when a dram’s ale is mixed (9)
We're still safe... for now
CC @dontattempt.bsky.social
Jam made from a ram’s tail end? (9)
Spread from fruit, mostly orange, made at home (9)
Sweet preserve made when a dram’s ale is mixed (9)
We're still safe... for now
CC @dontattempt.bsky.social
Reposted by Tony Corke
You know, I'm 70 years old, and I've been thru hell, climbed close to heaven, and touched back down here on Earth, which had everything necessary for humans to thrive. Greed has destroyed much. Maybe it's too late to save it. But we need to try.
December 11, 2025 at 1:05 PM
You know, I'm 70 years old, and I've been thru hell, climbed close to heaven, and touched back down here on Earth, which had everything necessary for humans to thrive. Greed has destroyed much. Maybe it's too late to save it. But we need to try.
Somewhat morbid topic, but there's some interesting statistical discussion to be had in relation to the Hamm v Smith case currently before the US Supreme Court looking at the interpretation of multiple IQ test results in determining whether or not someone should be exempt from the death penalty
December 13, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Somewhat morbid topic, but there's some interesting statistical discussion to be had in relation to the Hamm v Smith case currently before the US Supreme Court looking at the interpretation of multiple IQ test results in determining whether or not someone should be exempt from the death penalty
A couple of PM and President graphics just for the heck of it
December 13, 2025 at 6:43 AM
A couple of PM and President graphics just for the heck of it