Marcelo Rinesi
@marcelorinesi.bsky.social
Cognitive architecture designer and consultant.
On https://rinesi.com there are links to my blog and newsletters (one for articles, "what's new on arXiv," etc, the other for original short-short SF).
On https://rinesi.com there are links to my blog and newsletters (one for articles, "what's new on arXiv," etc, the other for original short-short SF).
Self-recommending, as they used(?) to say.
From director Rian Johnson, a collection of some of the screenplays of his movies & TV shows, including Wake Up Dead Man, Knives Out, Glass Onion, Looper, and the Poker Face pilot. “Print them, share them, act them out with your friends.” [rian-johnson.com]
January 22, 2026 at 11:50 PM
Self-recommending, as they used(?) to say.
"The Power Fantasy" is by far the best ongoing series I'm reading but *Wherein we discuss theoretical utilitarian arguments like, “Oh no! The kid in the Omelas hole has got a nuke! Runnnnn!”* might well be the best comic book solicitation I have read, ever.
January 22, 2026 at 11:48 PM
"The Power Fantasy" is by far the best ongoing series I'm reading but *Wherein we discuss theoretical utilitarian arguments like, “Oh no! The kid in the Omelas hole has got a nuke! Runnnnn!”* might well be the best comic book solicitation I have read, ever.
I haven't had a chance to read this one yet, but reverse-engineering rewards from behavior is one of those tantalizing problems you keep waiting for a good solution while understanding it's intrinsically hard.
Decoding Rewards in Competitive Games: Inverse Game Theory with Entropy Regularization
Estimating the unknown reward functions driving agents' behaviors is of central interest in inverse reinforcement learning and game theory. To tackle this problem, we develop a unified framework for r...
arxiv.org
January 22, 2026 at 11:37 PM
I haven't had a chance to read this one yet, but reverse-engineering rewards from behavior is one of those tantalizing problems you keep waiting for a good solution while understanding it's intrinsically hard.
Performance comparisons aside, a benefit of BNs that's often opaque to consumers of black box/"ask the AI" forecasts is conceptual modularity which allows for testing, refinement, narrow "imports" of other models/humans, etc. Like software, models should be written to be read, not just executed.
Improving Geopolitical Forecasts with Bayesian Networks
This study explores how Bayesian networks (BNs) can improve forecast accuracy compared to logistic regression and recalibration and aggregation methods, using data from the Good Judgment Project. Regu...
arxiv.org
January 22, 2026 at 11:34 PM
Performance comparisons aside, a benefit of BNs that's often opaque to consumers of black box/"ask the AI" forecasts is conceptual modularity which allows for testing, refinement, narrow "imports" of other models/humans, etc. Like software, models should be written to be read, not just executed.
"We study dynamic games with hidden states and absorbing failure...survival values become locally concave in beliefs, implying that transparency destroys equilibrium viability while sufficient opacity restores it." A known phenomenon in many contexts, but it looks like a very useful formalization.
Irreversible Failure Reverses the Value of Information
We study dynamic games with hidden states and absorbing failure, where belief-driven actions can trigger irreversible collapse. In such environments, equilibria that sustain activity generically opera...
arxiv.org
January 22, 2026 at 11:28 PM
"We study dynamic games with hidden states and absorbing failure...survival values become locally concave in beliefs, implying that transparency destroys equilibrium viability while sufficient opacity restores it." A known phenomenon in many contexts, but it looks like a very useful formalization.
Used to an at most episodically two-party system, one of my main structural worries is the Democratic party's (as organization) monopoly of the non-fascist position; this has made them poorly responsive to the demands of a "customer base" they see as locked-in.
via @dynamicsymmetry.bsky.social
via @dynamicsymmetry.bsky.social
Totally correct to point out that 206 Democrats voted against it, the party remains good on the whole, absolutely no aid or comfort for "both parties are the same" bullshit
But Hakeem Jeffries in particular does actually suck
But Hakeem Jeffries in particular does actually suck
January 22, 2026 at 11:12 PM
Used to an at most episodically two-party system, one of my main structural worries is the Democratic party's (as organization) monopoly of the non-fascist position; this has made them poorly responsive to the demands of a "customer base" they see as locked-in.
via @dynamicsymmetry.bsky.social
via @dynamicsymmetry.bsky.social
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
The Final Summation
The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the…
blog.rinesi.com
January 22, 2026 at 2:06 PM
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
Breaking the Smart City Out of its Narcissism
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant. Cities are…
blog.rinesi.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
The Final Summation
The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the…
blog.rinesi.com
January 21, 2026 at 4:13 AM
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
Breaking the Smart City Out of its Narcissism
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant. Cities are…
blog.rinesi.com
January 21, 2026 at 1:15 AM
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
A good overview of the *quite* fast transformation of Argentina's age structure, driven mostly by a drop in fertility rates. Four observations: (1) there are features of Argentinean society and economy that amplify the impact, (2) fiscal and political... 1/
ANÁLISIS | La transformación más profunda, y silenciosa, de la Argentina, por Jorge Liotti www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/la-...
La transformación más profunda, y silenciosa, de la Argentina
La conformación social está mutando más rápido de lo previsto por una abrupta baja de la natalidad, sin paralelo a nivel global; en 2040 habrá más población pasiva que activa; el impacto económico del...
www.lanacion.com.ar
January 20, 2026 at 10:09 PM
A good overview of the *quite* fast transformation of Argentina's age structure, driven mostly by a drop in fertility rates. Four observations: (1) there are features of Argentinean society and economy that amplify the impact, (2) fiscal and political... 1/
This is going to be (1) the most useful thing ever for the admittedly few people who need it, (2) a great example that [DSLs + HTTP + specialized nerds + some funding] remains one of the best meta-tools known to humankind. I'd rather have 1000 of these than 99.9...% of current startups.
The integrated explicit analytic number theory network
Like many other areas of modern analysis, analytic number theory often relies on the convenient device of asymptotic notation to express its results. It is common to use notation such as $latex {X …
terrytao.wordpress.com
January 20, 2026 at 9:55 PM
This is going to be (1) the most useful thing ever for the admittedly few people who need it, (2) a great example that [DSLs + HTTP + specialized nerds + some funding] remains one of the best meta-tools known to humankind. I'd rather have 1000 of these than 99.9...% of current startups.
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
The Final Summation
The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the…
blog.rinesi.com
January 20, 2026 at 1:15 AM
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
Breaking the Smart City Out of its Narcissism
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant. Cities are…
blog.rinesi.com
January 19, 2026 at 5:17 PM
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
"For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant..."
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
Affinity
For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant; it was me against them, a single mind of whom I knew everything that…
blog.rinesi.com
January 19, 2026 at 4:13 AM
"For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant..."
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
The Final Summation
The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the…
blog.rinesi.com
January 18, 2026 at 5:17 PM
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
Breaking the Smart City Out of its Narcissism
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant. Cities are…
blog.rinesi.com
January 18, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
"For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant..."
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
Affinity
For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant; it was me against them, a single mind of whom I knew everything that…
blog.rinesi.com
January 18, 2026 at 1:15 AM
"For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant..."
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
Overgeneralizing, the architecture of automation(s) is how we even have computers to begin with, but building this guided by short-term cost concerns or myopic last-problem patching leads to human-computer systems that are let's say less than optimal...
via @kevinr.free-dissociation.com
via @kevinr.free-dissociation.com
January 17, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Overgeneralizing, the architecture of automation(s) is how we even have computers to begin with, but building this guided by short-term cost concerns or myopic last-problem patching leads to human-computer systems that are let's say less than optimal...
via @kevinr.free-dissociation.com
via @kevinr.free-dissociation.com
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
The Final Summation
blog.rinesi.com
January 17, 2026 at 8:29 PM
"The Detective sat comfortably inside the transparent cage as if it were another well-appointed library and the scientists and soldiers standing around it an assorted group of suspects, witnesses, the casually involved, and a murderer or three." #ShortFiction #ScienceFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
"For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant..."
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
Affinity
For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant; it was me against them, a single mind of whom I knew everything that…
blog.rinesi.com
January 16, 2026 at 5:17 PM
"For ten years I assaulted the white-and-red walls of their immune systems (we both had governments, spies, money; irrelevant..."
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
#ScienceFiction #ShortFiction #AdversarialMetanoia
👇Very much agree with the general view of math being one of the most fascinating and long-term influential areas of application of what-we-call-AI-today. I'd add to @alexwilkins.bsky.social 's article that what *professional* mathematicians are doing with it today is even more mind-blowing...
I maintain that the most interesting developments in AI are happening in mathematics, in part because we have tools that can definitively verify that an AI-generated proof is correct. Great story from @alexwilkins.bsky.social www.newscientist.com/article/2511...
Amateur mathematicians solve long-standing maths problems with AI
Professional mathematicians have been stunned by the progress amateurs have made in solving long-standing problems with the assistance of AI tools, and say it could lead to a new way of doing mathemat...
www.newscientist.com
January 16, 2026 at 4:01 PM
👇Very much agree with the general view of math being one of the most fascinating and long-term influential areas of application of what-we-call-AI-today. I'd add to @alexwilkins.bsky.social 's article that what *professional* mathematicians are doing with it today is even more mind-blowing...
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
Breaking the Smart City Out of its Narcissism
blog.rinesi.com
January 16, 2026 at 3:52 AM
Where's the Smart City? Still everywhere as a concept, almost nowhere as transformative large-scale reality, most visible in ghost cities built from scratch, gleaming and almost vacant...
Often underdiscussed is that this kind of understanding requires the ability to build domain knowledge on whatever your code is doing. I wrote a post around the idea of "Hire (a different kind of) freaks [/affectionate]" - for students, I'd reframe it as "learn to be a freak."
via @tedunderwood.com
via @tedunderwood.com
January 16, 2026 at 12:42 AM
Often underdiscussed is that this kind of understanding requires the ability to build domain knowledge on whatever your code is doing. I wrote a post around the idea of "Hire (a different kind of) freaks [/affectionate]" - for students, I'd reframe it as "learn to be a freak."
via @tedunderwood.com
via @tedunderwood.com
This is (1) news to me (2) extremely useful (3) [context aside] hilarious. I'd feel ~99% better if I could picture them having the imagination and follow-thru to actually do it but today I'm practicing "Take the Upstream Good News, Don't Worry About the Downstream Bottleneck Until It's There."
In this context it is also worth noting that the quorum for both houses is 50%+1, wherever they may meet. If the Republicans and Trump's goons occupy the Capitol and refuse to seat a newly elected Democratic congress, they can just meet *literally anywhere,* meete quorum and be Congress.
here's what happens after house elections, which are conducted by each state and locality:
the state certifies the winner
the winners go to washington
they convene a new house
they choose a speaker
notice who isn't involved here? the president or the current speaker or the senate.
the state certifies the winner
the winners go to washington
they convene a new house
they choose a speaker
notice who isn't involved here? the president or the current speaker or the senate.
January 15, 2026 at 10:43 PM
This is (1) news to me (2) extremely useful (3) [context aside] hilarious. I'd feel ~99% better if I could picture them having the imagination and follow-thru to actually do it but today I'm practicing "Take the Upstream Good News, Don't Worry About the Downstream Bottleneck Until It's There."