The Leuthold Group
@leutholdgroup.bsky.social
Independent Institutional Financial Research
Disclosure: http://funds.leutholdgroup.com
Distributor: Quasar Distributors, LLC
Disclosure: http://funds.leutholdgroup.com
Distributor: Quasar Distributors, LLC
Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA
November 13, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA
A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity
November 11, 2025 at 2:30 PM
A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity
In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall
October 31, 2025 at 4:45 PM
In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall
Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?
Stocks keep marching higher, but there are signs of strain under the surface.
dub.sh
October 27, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing
October 24, 2025 at 7:30 PM
On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing
Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy
October 23, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy
"The stock market’s long rise is masking underlying economic weakness and pushing off a recession," Doug Ramsey Leuthold CIO via @BW "What should we do with our money these days? These financial experts have a few ideas" www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com
October 16, 2025 at 6:30 PM
"The stock market’s long rise is masking underlying economic weakness and pushing off a recession," Doug Ramsey Leuthold CIO via @BW "What should we do with our money these days? These financial experts have a few ideas" www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
Leuthold research cited by @Investopedia: Your S&P 500 index fund might lack diversity, with Nvidia being a key factor. www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p...
Your S&P 500 Index Fund Might Not Be as Diverse As You Think—And You Can Blame Nvidia for That
Not all S&P 500 companies are created equal. In fact, if you’ve invested in a fund that tracks the S&P 500, you might be surprised how heavily it’s weighted to a single company: Nvidia (NVDA).
www.investopedia.com
October 15, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Leuthold research cited by @Investopedia: Your S&P 500 index fund might lack diversity, with Nvidia being a key factor. www.investopedia.com/your-s-and-p...
The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing
September 30, 2025 at 7:02 PM
The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing
Notwithstanding the headlines, Margin Debt surpassing $1T is irrelevant. The real Red Flag is #MarginDebt climbing faster than $SPX. Its YoY growth in Aug was 33% vs $SPX’s 14%. The tops of Y2K, 2007 & 2021/2022 were all preceded by similar breakouts in the growth-rate gap of these two measures.
September 29, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Notwithstanding the headlines, Margin Debt surpassing $1T is irrelevant. The real Red Flag is #MarginDebt climbing faster than $SPX. Its YoY growth in Aug was 33% vs $SPX’s 14%. The tops of Y2K, 2007 & 2021/2022 were all preceded by similar breakouts in the growth-rate gap of these two measures.
Join the chat on "Making Money with Charles Payne" as Doug Ramsey, Leuthold's CIO, delves into the economic climate. @cvpayne.bsky.social Watch at www.foxbusiness.com/video/638011... [timestamp 02:00] #ConsumerSpending #Inflation #Employment
Chief investment officer reveals what is 'PROPPING UP' the 'two-tier' economy | Fox Business Video
The Leuthold Group CIO Doug Ramsey assesses the state of the economy and reveals what is 'propping' it up on 'Making Money.'
www.foxbusiness.com
September 26, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Join the chat on "Making Money with Charles Payne" as Doug Ramsey, Leuthold's CIO, delves into the economic climate. @cvpayne.bsky.social Watch at www.foxbusiness.com/video/638011... [timestamp 02:00] #ConsumerSpending #Inflation #Employment
Leuthold's Doug Ramsey thinks $SPX should be a part of the “inflation-forecasting tool kit”—in both directions. Article by @mdbaccardax.bsky.social shorturl.at/4wtXt barrons.com #InflationRisk #FederalReserve #paywall
The Fed’s Powell Sees Stocks As Expensive. That’s Not His Problem.
The Fed chair isn’t ready to add a stock market bubble to his hefty plate of challenges.
shorturl.at
September 25, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Leuthold's Doug Ramsey thinks $SPX should be a part of the “inflation-forecasting tool kit”—in both directions. Article by @mdbaccardax.bsky.social shorturl.at/4wtXt barrons.com #InflationRisk #FederalReserve #paywall
Although this is the third up-leg in a nearly 3-yr-old bull market, outperformance of Cyclical equities vs Defensives since the April low has been markedly stronger than that of the first upswing following a recessionary bear market bottom #StockMarket #Investing
September 25, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Although this is the third up-leg in a nearly 3-yr-old bull market, outperformance of Cyclical equities vs Defensives since the April low has been markedly stronger than that of the first upswing following a recessionary bear market bottom #StockMarket #Investing
Despite not suffering the pain of a recessionary bear market, stock action since the April low looks like a post-recession acceleration. We’re in the 3rd up-leg of a cyclical bull that began at full employment, yet the rally tracks the 1st upsurge after a recessionary bear. #StockMarket #BullRun
September 23, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Despite not suffering the pain of a recessionary bear market, stock action since the April low looks like a post-recession acceleration. We’re in the 3rd up-leg of a cyclical bull that began at full employment, yet the rally tracks the 1st upsurge after a recessionary bear. #StockMarket #BullRun
The stock market isn't pricier than in February and appears healthier. Back then, 7 of 8 key indicators showed warnings, while only four do today. Importantly, both the NYSE Daily A/D Line and Equal Weighted S&P 500 support $SPX's movements. #StockMarket #Investing #Breadth
September 17, 2025 at 5:15 PM
The stock market isn't pricier than in February and appears healthier. Back then, 7 of 8 key indicators showed warnings, while only four do today. Importantly, both the NYSE Daily A/D Line and Equal Weighted S&P 500 support $SPX's movements. #StockMarket #Investing #Breadth
Next week's rate cut parallels pre-GFC actions. Like 2007, despite rising inflation, the Fed cites a housing slump and weakening labor market as reasons for the move. In '07, the cut didn't boost growth, and inflation increased. Today, economic indicators already appear bleak.
September 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Next week's rate cut parallels pre-GFC actions. Like 2007, despite rising inflation, the Fed cites a housing slump and weakening labor market as reasons for the move. In '07, the cut didn't boost growth, and inflation increased. Today, economic indicators already appear bleak.
Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) shorturl.at/tIVIE is overweight Comm. Srvs. and Financials, with group concentrations from each. These sectors have held the top ranks in our work since May 2024 and complement each other well: growth, cyclical, and defensive industries are scattered across both.
LST: Leuthold Select Industries ETF
Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) seeks long-term growth by flexibly investing across diverse industries to capture evolving market opportunities.
shorturl.at
September 11, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) shorturl.at/tIVIE is overweight Comm. Srvs. and Financials, with group concentrations from each. These sectors have held the top ranks in our work since May 2024 and complement each other well: growth, cyclical, and defensive industries are scattered across both.
Given the fundamental backdrop, we'd be stunned if a recession doesn’t break out before the end of Trump’s term. There’s also political history working against Trump. Only one #Republican term ended without the economy falling into recession (Reagan’s 2nd). tinyurl.com/4z5xp65f #Recession
Fighting The Political Odds
The Trump administration inherited a fully employed economy, but one showing most leading indicators (except the stock market) flashing yellow or red. Nearly eight months into his term, that’s still…
tinyurl.com
September 9, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Given the fundamental backdrop, we'd be stunned if a recession doesn’t break out before the end of Trump’s term. There’s also political history working against Trump. Only one #Republican term ended without the economy falling into recession (Reagan’s 2nd). tinyurl.com/4z5xp65f #Recession
With consecutive gains from May thru Aug, $SPX has defied the "Sell In May" adage this year. When this occurred in the past (albeit a small sample of 14), the index's average return was +5.3% from Sep-Dec vs. +1.9% in all other years. #MarketTrends #S&P500
September 4, 2025 at 4:31 PM
With consecutive gains from May thru Aug, $SPX has defied the "Sell In May" adage this year. When this occurred in the past (albeit a small sample of 14), the index's average return was +5.3% from Sep-Dec vs. +1.9% in all other years. #MarketTrends #S&P500
Phil. Fed Bus. Outlook Survey offers an early peek at the ISM Mfg Survey. Latest data is unfavorable: New Orders fell into contraction, and Prices Paid hit levels not seen since June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1%. Current inflation pressures exceed those before the GFC.
August 29, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Phil. Fed Bus. Outlook Survey offers an early peek at the ISM Mfg Survey. Latest data is unfavorable: New Orders fell into contraction, and Prices Paid hit levels not seen since June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1%. Current inflation pressures exceed those before the GFC.
Between April 1st and July 31st, the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 surged by +13.4%, notably exceeding the Equal-Weighted $SPX's +6.5%. This marks the third-best four-month period for Cap-Weighted upside relative to the EW index since the #Y2K tech boom. #MarketTrends #Equities
August 28, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Between April 1st and July 31st, the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 surged by +13.4%, notably exceeding the Equal-Weighted $SPX's +6.5%. This marks the third-best four-month period for Cap-Weighted upside relative to the EW index since the #Y2K tech boom. #MarketTrends #Equities
Lately, we noted a spike in the CRB Raw Ind $RIND & other commodity indices. Those seeking to hedge escalating input costs can find solid options among diversified commodity ETFs. Since the May '20 inflation trough, such ETFs have excelled over other options. Avoid TIPS; they provide little defense.
August 27, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Lately, we noted a spike in the CRB Raw Ind $RIND & other commodity indices. Those seeking to hedge escalating input costs can find solid options among diversified commodity ETFs. Since the May '20 inflation trough, such ETFs have excelled over other options. Avoid TIPS; they provide little defense.
CRB Raw Ind Index ($RIND) tracks manufacturing input costs and can foretell inflation trends. By July, RIND's notable +7.3% YTD rise is mirrored by two other commodity price measures, contrasting with CPI & PPI. This is concerning, as rising input costs could hinder CPI's progress to 2% #CPI #CRB
August 22, 2025 at 2:32 PM