The Leuthold Group
@leutholdgroup.bsky.social
Independent Institutional Financial Research
Disclosure: http://funds.leutholdgroup.com
Distributor: Quasar Distributors, LLC
Disclosure: http://funds.leutholdgroup.com
Distributor: Quasar Distributors, LLC
Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA
November 13, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA
A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity
November 11, 2025 at 2:30 PM
A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity
On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing
October 24, 2025 at 7:30 PM
On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing
Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy
October 23, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Blue-chip Dividend Aristocrats often perform well when markets dip and hold their ground in most rising markets (except today's large-cap surge). When the AI hype cools, #Aristocrats are set to stay competitive. If a recession hits, they're apt to outperform. #DividendInvesting #Economy
The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing
September 30, 2025 at 7:02 PM
The S&P 500 is notably overvalued compared to house prices. Through Q2-25, just 72 $SPX units were needed to buy a median-priced home. Back in 1968, acquiring a median home (around $19,700) required about 210 S&P 500 units. #RealEstate #Investing
Notwithstanding the headlines, Margin Debt surpassing $1T is irrelevant. The real Red Flag is #MarginDebt climbing faster than $SPX. Its YoY growth in Aug was 33% vs $SPX’s 14%. The tops of Y2K, 2007 & 2021/2022 were all preceded by similar breakouts in the growth-rate gap of these two measures.
September 29, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Notwithstanding the headlines, Margin Debt surpassing $1T is irrelevant. The real Red Flag is #MarginDebt climbing faster than $SPX. Its YoY growth in Aug was 33% vs $SPX’s 14%. The tops of Y2K, 2007 & 2021/2022 were all preceded by similar breakouts in the growth-rate gap of these two measures.
Although this is the third up-leg in a nearly 3-yr-old bull market, outperformance of Cyclical equities vs Defensives since the April low has been markedly stronger than that of the first upswing following a recessionary bear market bottom #StockMarket #Investing
September 25, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Although this is the third up-leg in a nearly 3-yr-old bull market, outperformance of Cyclical equities vs Defensives since the April low has been markedly stronger than that of the first upswing following a recessionary bear market bottom #StockMarket #Investing
Despite not suffering the pain of a recessionary bear market, stock action since the April low looks like a post-recession acceleration. We’re in the 3rd up-leg of a cyclical bull that began at full employment, yet the rally tracks the 1st upsurge after a recessionary bear. #StockMarket #BullRun
September 23, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Despite not suffering the pain of a recessionary bear market, stock action since the April low looks like a post-recession acceleration. We’re in the 3rd up-leg of a cyclical bull that began at full employment, yet the rally tracks the 1st upsurge after a recessionary bear. #StockMarket #BullRun
The stock market isn't pricier than in February and appears healthier. Back then, 7 of 8 key indicators showed warnings, while only four do today. Importantly, both the NYSE Daily A/D Line and Equal Weighted S&P 500 support $SPX's movements. #StockMarket #Investing #Breadth
September 17, 2025 at 5:15 PM
The stock market isn't pricier than in February and appears healthier. Back then, 7 of 8 key indicators showed warnings, while only four do today. Importantly, both the NYSE Daily A/D Line and Equal Weighted S&P 500 support $SPX's movements. #StockMarket #Investing #Breadth
Next week's rate cut parallels pre-GFC actions. Like 2007, despite rising inflation, the Fed cites a housing slump and weakening labor market as reasons for the move. In '07, the cut didn't boost growth, and inflation increased. Today, economic indicators already appear bleak.
September 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Next week's rate cut parallels pre-GFC actions. Like 2007, despite rising inflation, the Fed cites a housing slump and weakening labor market as reasons for the move. In '07, the cut didn't boost growth, and inflation increased. Today, economic indicators already appear bleak.
With consecutive gains from May thru Aug, $SPX has defied the "Sell In May" adage this year. When this occurred in the past (albeit a small sample of 14), the index's average return was +5.3% from Sep-Dec vs. +1.9% in all other years. #MarketTrends #S&P500
September 4, 2025 at 4:31 PM
With consecutive gains from May thru Aug, $SPX has defied the "Sell In May" adage this year. When this occurred in the past (albeit a small sample of 14), the index's average return was +5.3% from Sep-Dec vs. +1.9% in all other years. #MarketTrends #S&P500
Phil. Fed Bus. Outlook Survey offers an early peek at the ISM Mfg Survey. Latest data is unfavorable: New Orders fell into contraction, and Prices Paid hit levels not seen since June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1%. Current inflation pressures exceed those before the GFC.
August 29, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Phil. Fed Bus. Outlook Survey offers an early peek at the ISM Mfg Survey. Latest data is unfavorable: New Orders fell into contraction, and Prices Paid hit levels not seen since June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9.1%. Current inflation pressures exceed those before the GFC.
Between April 1st and July 31st, the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 surged by +13.4%, notably exceeding the Equal-Weighted $SPX's +6.5%. This marks the third-best four-month period for Cap-Weighted upside relative to the EW index since the #Y2K tech boom. #MarketTrends #Equities
August 28, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Between April 1st and July 31st, the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 surged by +13.4%, notably exceeding the Equal-Weighted $SPX's +6.5%. This marks the third-best four-month period for Cap-Weighted upside relative to the EW index since the #Y2K tech boom. #MarketTrends #Equities
Through July, a conspicuous spike in $RIND (+7.3% YTD) is confirmed by 2 other commodity price gauges (in sharp contrast to CPI & PPI). This is worrisome as rising input costs could hinder CPI's progress to 2%
August 27, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Through July, a conspicuous spike in $RIND (+7.3% YTD) is confirmed by 2 other commodity price gauges (in sharp contrast to CPI & PPI). This is worrisome as rising input costs could hinder CPI's progress to 2%
Lately, we noted a spike in the CRB Raw Ind $RIND & other commodity indices. Those seeking to hedge escalating input costs can find solid options among diversified commodity ETFs. Since the May '20 inflation trough, such ETFs have excelled over other options. Avoid TIPS; they provide little defense.
August 27, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Lately, we noted a spike in the CRB Raw Ind $RIND & other commodity indices. Those seeking to hedge escalating input costs can find solid options among diversified commodity ETFs. Since the May '20 inflation trough, such ETFs have excelled over other options. Avoid TIPS; they provide little defense.
CRB Raw Ind Index ($RIND) tracks manufacturing input costs and can foretell inflation trends. By July, RIND's notable +7.3% YTD rise is mirrored by two other commodity price measures, contrasting with CPI & PPI. This is concerning, as rising input costs could hinder CPI's progress to 2% #CPI #CRB
August 22, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Most bellwether indexes verified $SPX Jul-28th high but there are divergences: DJ Transports still 12% below its peak and Trucking nearly 36% lower. Vs $SPX, Baa bond spreads look as bad as the Truckers. Action of Baa's & Truckers is worse than the lead-up to the '07 pre-GFC high.
August 19, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Most bellwether indexes verified $SPX Jul-28th high but there are divergences: DJ Transports still 12% below its peak and Trucking nearly 36% lower. Vs $SPX, Baa bond spreads look as bad as the Truckers. Action of Baa's & Truckers is worse than the lead-up to the '07 pre-GFC high.
Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) employs an uncommon approach of investing through industry concentrations and equity themes using a broad multi-cap universe of stocks. LST has a 25-year track record of solid results. More at lnkd.in/gQXf58cc Leuthold distribution partner @XtolloInv
August 18, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Leuthold Select Industries ETF (LST) employs an uncommon approach of investing through industry concentrations and equity themes using a broad multi-cap universe of stocks. LST has a 25-year track record of solid results. More at lnkd.in/gQXf58cc Leuthold distribution partner @XtolloInv
The stock market appears more promising in late summer than it did at its Feb. 19th peak. Although not cheap, it's no pricier than it was back then. S&P 500 Forward EPS, Normalized EPS, and Cash Flow have climbed alongside prices.Technically speaking, $SPX's late-July highs were broader than in Feb
August 15, 2025 at 7:32 PM
The stock market appears more promising in late summer than it did at its Feb. 19th peak. Although not cheap, it's no pricier than it was back then. S&P 500 Forward EPS, Normalized EPS, and Cash Flow have climbed alongside prices.Technically speaking, $SPX's late-July highs were broader than in Feb
$SPX is up 25% from Apr 8 thru Jun 30. Our earnings & cash-flow estimates keep getting better, but can’t keep pace with the swelling numerators in their ratios. The New Era’s potential downside is two ticks away from its near-term extreme (-33%) of last Nov. #MarketTrends #Stocks
July 31, 2025 at 3:05 PM
$SPX is up 25% from Apr 8 thru Jun 30. Our earnings & cash-flow estimates keep getting better, but can’t keep pace with the swelling numerators in their ratios. The New Era’s potential downside is two ticks away from its near-term extreme (-33%) of last Nov. #MarketTrends #Stocks
With a steadily rising standard of living since 1947, U.S. workers have enjoyed improved buying power. Still, soaring equity valuations have drastically slashed stock market purchasing power. One needs to work over 218 hours to buy a single unit in $SPX. #Valuations #Wages #Investing
July 23, 2025 at 5:40 PM
With a steadily rising standard of living since 1947, U.S. workers have enjoyed improved buying power. Still, soaring equity valuations have drastically slashed stock market purchasing power. One needs to work over 218 hours to buy a single unit in $SPX. #Valuations #Wages #Investing
In June, S&P 1500's normalized P/E ratio fell below its median, implying performance near the +10% LT norm is possible for the average stock. The P/CF ratio hit the bottom decile relative to $SPX, which usually triggers a rebound in the average stock. #Investing
July 21, 2025 at 3:47 PM
In June, S&P 1500's normalized P/E ratio fell below its median, implying performance near the +10% LT norm is possible for the average stock. The P/CF ratio hit the bottom decile relative to $SPX, which usually triggers a rebound in the average stock. #Investing
Just 3 out of 8 leading indicators have confirmed the new $SPX bull market peak. Uneven recoveries are not unusual, though, especially following a 19% drop. We're choosing to wait a bit before viewing the stragglers as yellow flags. $RUT #Stocks #Investing
July 17, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Just 3 out of 8 leading indicators have confirmed the new $SPX bull market peak. Uneven recoveries are not unusual, though, especially following a 19% drop. We're choosing to wait a bit before viewing the stragglers as yellow flags. $RUT #Stocks #Investing