Michael Hoffman
@leboncondorcet.bsky.social
Chief Economist at the US GAO, providing the evidence base for economic policymaking in the public interest. Taught at American, PhD at Duke, undergrad at Michigan. Views my own.
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
What can Japan's high public debt and low government bond interest rates tell us about U.S. debt sustainability? In my new Substack I argue this is a cautionary tale for the United States.
What can Japan’s experience tell us about U.S. federal debt sustainability?
A playbook or a warning?
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:37 PM
What can Japan's high public debt and low government bond interest rates tell us about U.S. debt sustainability? In my new Substack I argue this is a cautionary tale for the United States.
What can Japan's high public debt and low government bond interest rates tell us about U.S. debt sustainability? In my new Substack I argue this is a cautionary tale for the United States.
What can Japan’s experience tell us about U.S. federal debt sustainability?
A playbook or a warning?
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:37 PM
What can Japan's high public debt and low government bond interest rates tell us about U.S. debt sustainability? In my new Substack I argue this is a cautionary tale for the United States.
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
My thoughts on how to get the most insight out of the September CPI report.
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com/p/the-septem...
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com/p/the-septem...
The September 2025 Consumer Price Index
Reading past the headlines
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 8:44 PM
My thoughts on how to get the most insight out of the September CPI report.
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com/p/the-septem...
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com/p/the-septem...
My thoughts on how to get the most insight out of the September CPI report.
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com/p/the-septem...
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com/p/the-septem...
The September 2025 Consumer Price Index
Reading past the headlines
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 8:44 PM
My thoughts on how to get the most insight out of the September CPI report.
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com/p/the-septem...
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com/p/the-septem...
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Pandemic inflation is still with us--see my Substack for a deep dive on what we've learned about the disparate origins of pandemic inflation.
Pandemic inflation
What role for the 2021 economic impact payments?
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Pandemic inflation is still with us--see my Substack for a deep dive on what we've learned about the disparate origins of pandemic inflation.
Pandemic inflation is still with us--see my Substack for a deep dive on what we've learned about the disparate origins of pandemic inflation.
Pandemic inflation
What role for the 2021 economic impact payments?
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Pandemic inflation is still with us--see my Substack for a deep dive on what we've learned about the disparate origins of pandemic inflation.
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
If you're interested in practical insights from macroeconomics, please consider subscribing to my Substack. My first big post is about how major technological developments powered the economic gains (and disruptions) from the industrial evolution.
Lessons from industrial innovation in the 18th century?
What can industrial innovation in the 18th century teach us about responding to 21st century technological change?
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 3:55 PM
If you're interested in practical insights from macroeconomics, please consider subscribing to my Substack. My first big post is about how major technological developments powered the economic gains (and disruptions) from the industrial evolution.
Very excited to see this. I have been leaning on Aghion (et al., including Howitt) on the link between competition and innovation quite a lot lately. That paper spawned an considerable and rich empirical literature.
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt won the Nobel memorial prize in economics Monday for their research on how technological innovation fuels economic growth and creative destruction.
3 share Nobel Prize in Economics for work on technology, growth and creative destruction
Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt won the Nobel memorial prize in economics Monday for their research on how technological innovation fuels economic growth and creative destruction.
n.pr
October 13, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Very excited to see this. I have been leaning on Aghion (et al., including Howitt) on the link between competition and innovation quite a lot lately. That paper spawned an considerable and rich empirical literature.
Very enlightening comparison from the FT.
What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong
People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts
www.ft.com
October 10, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Very enlightening comparison from the FT.
If you're interested in practical insights from macroeconomics, please consider subscribing to my Substack. My first big post is about how major technological developments powered the economic gains (and disruptions) from the industrial evolution.
Lessons from industrial innovation in the 18th century?
What can industrial innovation in the 18th century teach us about responding to 21st century technological change?
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 3:55 PM
If you're interested in practical insights from macroeconomics, please consider subscribing to my Substack. My first big post is about how major technological developments powered the economic gains (and disruptions) from the industrial evolution.
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
📉 Energy intensity has declined across OECD countries since the mid-90s, but high prices and weaker economic conditions in energy-intensive sectors led to a temporary rise in 2024.
💡Find out more on #WorldEnergyEfficiencyDay ➡️ oecd.org/en/data/dash...
💡Find out more on #WorldEnergyEfficiencyDay ➡️ oecd.org/en/data/dash...
October 2, 2025 at 8:28 AM
📉 Energy intensity has declined across OECD countries since the mid-90s, but high prices and weaker economic conditions in energy-intensive sectors led to a temporary rise in 2024.
💡Find out more on #WorldEnergyEfficiencyDay ➡️ oecd.org/en/data/dash...
💡Find out more on #WorldEnergyEfficiencyDay ➡️ oecd.org/en/data/dash...
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Ken Rogoff is not a two-handed exonomist. He tells The Economist Money Talks podcast why he expects the dollar to lose global market share & why he predicts higher interest rates and inflation in the US. Very lucid podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
Buck stops here: Kenneth Rogoff on the future of the US dollar
Podcast Episode · Money Talks from The Economist · 05/07/2025 · Subscribers Only · 45m
podcasts.apple.com
May 11, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Ken Rogoff is not a two-handed exonomist. He tells The Economist Money Talks podcast why he expects the dollar to lose global market share & why he predicts higher interest rates and inflation in the US. Very lucid podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
🧪CEPR shines a light on cutting-edge research on #patents, #intellectualproperty, and #innovation in preparation for #WorldIPDay on 26 April. We would also like to thank @wipo.int for their support as a CEPR Member organisation. - 🧵1/5
#EconSky
#EconSky
April 25, 2025 at 1:50 PM
🧪CEPR shines a light on cutting-edge research on #patents, #intellectualproperty, and #innovation in preparation for #WorldIPDay on 26 April. We would also like to thank @wipo.int for their support as a CEPR Member organisation. - 🧵1/5
#EconSky
#EconSky
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
“Second only to the scourge of war itself, foremost among the motivations for cooperation was first hand experience with the collapse of national economic activity and international economic cooperation during the interwar years.” (From 2019) www.liberalcurrents.com/economic-coo...
Economic Cooperation in Furtherance of Peace: Lessons from the Postwar Era
During and after World War II the architects of the economic institutions of the liberal international order articulated a compelling rationale for the structure and rules of the International Monetar...
www.liberalcurrents.com
April 7, 2025 at 2:38 PM
“Second only to the scourge of war itself, foremost among the motivations for cooperation was first hand experience with the collapse of national economic activity and international economic cooperation during the interwar years.” (From 2019) www.liberalcurrents.com/economic-coo...
GAO wants you to know: This watchdog stands guard
thehill.com
March 18, 2025 at 12:55 PM
GAO wants you to know: This watchdog stands guard
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Folks I would like to crowd source something: what do you think is a good example of federal evaluation work that saved taxpayer money and led to a better operated/structured/informed program?
Need a strong example or two for a quick piece I am writing.
Need a strong example or two for a quick piece I am writing.
March 4, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Folks I would like to crowd source something: what do you think is a good example of federal evaluation work that saved taxpayer money and led to a better operated/structured/informed program?
Need a strong example or two for a quick piece I am writing.
Need a strong example or two for a quick piece I am writing.
Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Really, how much does undocumented immigration push down wages of native born workers? Data, evidence #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 26, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Really, how much does undocumented immigration push down wages of native born workers? Data, evidence #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
If you are interested in the economics of the infant formula market, and the critical federal role, read on for our authoritative empirical work and assessment of reform options.
Baby Formula’s Biggest Buyer Takes a Closer Look at Supplies and Shortages
You might not know this, but the federal government is the biggest buyer of baby formula in the United States. About 40% of all American babies get formula through a federal food assistance program fo...
www.gao.gov
January 21, 2025 at 1:30 AM
If you are interested in the economics of the infant formula market, and the critical federal role, read on for our authoritative empirical work and assessment of reform options.
You might say that this assement of the debt limit was even more timely than we expected!
Debt Limit: Statutory Changes Could Avert the Risk of a Government Default and Its Potentially Severe Consequences
Congress sets a limit on federal borrowing, known as the debt limit. If the government reaches this limit and exhausts available cash, it risks...
www.gao.gov
December 20, 2024 at 2:34 AM
You might say that this assement of the debt limit was even more timely than we expected!