Leonie Allard
@lallard.bsky.social
🇪🇺 🇫🇷 Visiting fellow at the AtlanticCouncil 🇺🇲 | All things Europe, Indopacific, nuclear | defense issues | formerly in Paris, Beijing, Brussels and Vienna.
Pinned
Leonie Allard
@lallard.bsky.social
· Mar 13
Deciphering French Strategy in the Indo-Pacific - War on the Rocks
From the fanfare-laden reopening of Notre-Dame to the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit held in the cavernous halls of the Grand Palais, to
warontherocks.com
As the French Carrier Strike Group steams through the Indian and Pacific oceans, I try to decipher France's Indo-Pac strategy. Why now, and for what purpose, especially at a time when France seems to have so many more pressing geopolitical concerns closer to home?
warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci...
warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
Reportage avec la mission française Pégase Grand Nord, à Lulea, dans le nord de la Suède, nouveau point d’appui stratégique de l'Otan atlantique. A lire dans Libé ce matin www.liberation.fr/internationa...
«On ne se cache pas» : la France en pleine démonstration de force diplomatique et stratégique dans le nord de la Suède
La mission «Pégase Grand Nord» de l’Armée de l’air s’est concentrée sur Lulea, point stratégique des plans de défense de l’Otan, dans un contexte de menaces russes sur l’Europe, de rhétorique nucléair...
www.liberation.fr
May 5, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reportage avec la mission française Pégase Grand Nord, à Lulea, dans le nord de la Suède, nouveau point d’appui stratégique de l'Otan atlantique. A lire dans Libé ce matin www.liberation.fr/internationa...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
US Tariffs Are Bad for Europe. Drawing Closer to China Isn’t a Magic Bullet
My comments to Tom Fairless @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
My comments to Tom Fairless @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
Tariffs Are Bad for Europe. Drawing Closer to China Isn’t a Magic Bullet.
For Europe, doubling down on its relationship with China could come at a steep price—including the loss of its storied auto industry.
www.wsj.com
April 5, 2025 at 1:40 PM
US Tariffs Are Bad for Europe. Drawing Closer to China Isn’t a Magic Bullet
My comments to Tom Fairless @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
My comments to Tom Fairless @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
⚡️West can send troops to Ukraine without Russia's permission, Macron says.
"Ukraine is sovereign – if it requests allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or reject it," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Parisien.
"Ukraine is sovereign – if it requests allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or reject it," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Parisien.
West can send troops to Ukraine without Russia's permission, Macron says
"Ukraine is sovereign – if it requests allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or reject it," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Parisien.
kyivindependent.com
March 16, 2025 at 7:15 PM
⚡️West can send troops to Ukraine without Russia's permission, Macron says.
"Ukraine is sovereign – if it requests allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or reject it," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Parisien.
"Ukraine is sovereign – if it requests allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or reject it," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Parisien.
Indo-Pacific: the French way? We tried to answer at #PDSF2025 with Admiral Mallard calling from the carrier strike group currently in the Indian Ocean, @taravarma.bsky.social who flew from Washington, Darshana Baruah all the way from Singapore, Commander Martinot from the joint staff in Paris.
March 15, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Indo-Pacific: the French way? We tried to answer at #PDSF2025 with Admiral Mallard calling from the carrier strike group currently in the Indian Ocean, @taravarma.bsky.social who flew from Washington, Darshana Baruah all the way from Singapore, Commander Martinot from the joint staff in Paris.
Reposted by Leonie Allard
The PRC was obsessed with it for good reason (see below).
When I was at the NSC, ONA produced some of the best analysis anywhere in the USG and had enormous and even historic policy impact. No other institution presently can do what it did.
Ending it is another unforced error.
When I was at the NSC, ONA produced some of the best analysis anywhere in the USG and had enormous and even historic policy impact. No other institution presently can do what it did.
Ending it is another unforced error.
March 14, 2025 at 3:40 AM
The PRC was obsessed with it for good reason (see below).
When I was at the NSC, ONA produced some of the best analysis anywhere in the USG and had enormous and even historic policy impact. No other institution presently can do what it did.
Ending it is another unforced error.
When I was at the NSC, ONA produced some of the best analysis anywhere in the USG and had enormous and even historic policy impact. No other institution presently can do what it did.
Ending it is another unforced error.
Reposted by Leonie Allard
Deciphering French Strategy in the #IndoPacific, by @lallard.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci... via @warontherocks.bsky.social #France
Deciphering French Strategy in the Indo-Pacific - War on the Rocks
From the fanfare-laden reopening of Notre-Dame to the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit held in the cavernous halls of the Grand Palais, to
warontherocks.com
March 13, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Deciphering French Strategy in the #IndoPacific, by @lallard.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci... via @warontherocks.bsky.social #France
As the French Carrier Strike Group steams through the Indian and Pacific oceans, I try to decipher France's Indo-Pac strategy. Why now, and for what purpose, especially at a time when France seems to have so many more pressing geopolitical concerns closer to home?
warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci...
warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci...
Deciphering French Strategy in the Indo-Pacific - War on the Rocks
From the fanfare-laden reopening of Notre-Dame to the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit held in the cavernous halls of the Grand Palais, to
warontherocks.com
March 13, 2025 at 7:21 PM
As the French Carrier Strike Group steams through the Indian and Pacific oceans, I try to decipher France's Indo-Pac strategy. Why now, and for what purpose, especially at a time when France seems to have so many more pressing geopolitical concerns closer to home?
warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci...
warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
Emmanuel Macron a lancé, devant les chefs des armées de plus de 30 pays réunis à Paris, les travaux opérationnels pour passer à la planification des "garanties de sécurité crédibles" à apporter à l'Ukraine en cas d'accord de paix avec la Russie.
March 11, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Emmanuel Macron a lancé, devant les chefs des armées de plus de 30 pays réunis à Paris, les travaux opérationnels pour passer à la planification des "garanties de sécurité crédibles" à apporter à l'Ukraine en cas d'accord de paix avec la Russie.
Reposted by Leonie Allard
Steve Hadley, Frank Kramer, & I try to look ahead to what a sustainable peace for Ukraine would take.
To resolve the war in Ukraine, Europe should lead the way in strengthening security guarantees for Kyiv—and the United States should provide limited but important support, argue Stephen Hadley, Daniel Fried, and Franklin Kramer.
A Plan for Peace Through Strength in Ukraine
Europe must step up, but America still has a role to play in ending the war.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 10, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Steve Hadley, Frank Kramer, & I try to look ahead to what a sustainable peace for Ukraine would take.
"Trump(...) has clearly chosen a factional process. So, the question for the moment for those outside the administration is how should this change how we understand and interact with the US government?"
substack.com/profile/1857...
substack.com/profile/1857...
How the Trump administration makes foreign policy decisions
The Technocratic versus Factional Processes
substack.com
March 8, 2025 at 11:00 PM
"Trump(...) has clearly chosen a factional process. So, the question for the moment for those outside the administration is how should this change how we understand and interact with the US government?"
substack.com/profile/1857...
substack.com/profile/1857...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
And so it goes. This isn't simply or primarily about Trump throwing Zelensky under the bus. This is about the future, if any, of the US as an alliance partner
EXCLUSIVE: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions.
On @therecordmedia.bsky.social
therecord.media/hegseth-orde...
On @therecordmedia.bsky.social
therecord.media/hegseth-orde...
Exclusive: Hegseth orders Cyber Command to stand down on Russia planning
The secretary of Defense has ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions, sources tell Recorded Future News.
therecord.media
February 28, 2025 at 8:24 PM
And so it goes. This isn't simply or primarily about Trump throwing Zelensky under the bus. This is about the future, if any, of the US as an alliance partner
✍️While Moscow leans on North Korea, Iran and China to prop up its war effort, these mutually beneficial relationships support needs of its partners in WMDs, fuelling a global arms race.
We explain how and possible responses with Astrid Chevreuil and Nicholas Lokker ⬇️ www.csis.org/analysis/fri...
We explain how and possible responses with Astrid Chevreuil and Nicholas Lokker ⬇️ www.csis.org/analysis/fri...
Friends with Benefits: How Russia’s Opportunistic Partnerships Stymie Nonproliferation Efforts
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has deepened ties with North Korea, Iran, and China, raising proliferation risks. This cooperation threatens global stability, placing a critical responsibility on the Uni...
www.csis.org
February 28, 2025 at 3:18 PM
✍️While Moscow leans on North Korea, Iran and China to prop up its war effort, these mutually beneficial relationships support needs of its partners in WMDs, fuelling a global arms race.
We explain how and possible responses with Astrid Chevreuil and Nicholas Lokker ⬇️ www.csis.org/analysis/fri...
We explain how and possible responses with Astrid Chevreuil and Nicholas Lokker ⬇️ www.csis.org/analysis/fri...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
“I’m here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being the primary guarantor of security in Europe.”
US Secretary of Defence, February 12, 2025.
Everything changed today.
US Secretary of Defence, February 12, 2025.
Everything changed today.
February 12, 2025 at 6:43 PM
“I’m here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being the primary guarantor of security in Europe.”
US Secretary of Defence, February 12, 2025.
Everything changed today.
US Secretary of Defence, February 12, 2025.
Everything changed today.
Reposted by Leonie Allard
If Europeans want to shape Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine, a centerpiece of their strategy must be a European offer to deploy troops in Ukraine, write Léonie Allard and Ian Brzezinski.
“The time is now for Europe to act and to act decisively.”
“The time is now for Europe to act and to act decisively.”
Now is Europe’s moment for decisive action on Ukraine
Make Trump an offer he can’t refuse: European allies should propose deploying troops in Ukraine.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
February 11, 2025 at 9:49 PM
If Europeans want to shape Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine, a centerpiece of their strategy must be a European offer to deploy troops in Ukraine, write Léonie Allard and Ian Brzezinski.
“The time is now for Europe to act and to act decisively.”
“The time is now for Europe to act and to act decisively.”
French Carrier Strike Group-led exercise La Perouse showcases the ability of a multinational coalition of nine countries to secure the 3 main straits instrumental to global commercial shipping in Indonesia : Malacca, Sunda, Lombok. Relevant in a Taiwan contingency.
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
January 17, 2025 at 9:46 PM
French Carrier Strike Group-led exercise La Perouse showcases the ability of a multinational coalition of nine countries to secure the 3 main straits instrumental to global commercial shipping in Indonesia : Malacca, Sunda, Lombok. Relevant in a Taiwan contingency.
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
With @elietenenbaum.bsky.social we argue that Europeans must consolidate a position on future security guarantees for Ukraine as Trump's inauguration nears. We unpack how key countries can lead the way, how to build a robust framework and why it has value now.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
Europe needs a coalition of the resolute
Europe must develop a “coalition of the resolute” to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
December 20, 2024 at 10:51 PM
With @elietenenbaum.bsky.social we argue that Europeans must consolidate a position on future security guarantees for Ukraine as Trump's inauguration nears. We unpack how key countries can lead the way, how to build a robust framework and why it has value now.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
'Couple hundred' North Korean troops lost fighting for Russia against Ukraine, AP reports; Sweden 'does not exclude' more direct physical presence in Ukraine to bolster defense; and more.
Ukraine war latest: 'Couple hundred' North Korean troops lost fighting for Russia against Ukraine, AP reports
Key developments on Dec. 18:
* 'Couple hundred' North Korean troops lost fighting for Russia against Ukraine, AP reports
* Sweden 'does not exclude' more direct physical presence in Ukraine to bols...
kyivindependent.com
December 18, 2024 at 9:30 PM
'Couple hundred' North Korean troops lost fighting for Russia against Ukraine, AP reports; Sweden 'does not exclude' more direct physical presence in Ukraine to bolster defense; and more.
Reposted by Leonie Allard
⚡️EU imposes sanctions on Chinese companies, North Korean minister over Ukraine war.
The EU imposed fully fledged sanctions on Dec. 16, including asset freezes and visa bans, on Chinese firms for supplying Russia's military for the war against Ukraine.
The EU imposed fully fledged sanctions on Dec. 16, including asset freezes and visa bans, on Chinese firms for supplying Russia's military for the war against Ukraine.
EU imposes sanctions on Chinese companies, North Korean minister over Ukraine war
The EU imposed fully fledged sanctions on Dec. 16, including asset freezes and visa bans, on Chinese firms for supplying Russia's military for the war against Ukraine.
kyivindependent.com
December 17, 2024 at 12:54 AM
⚡️EU imposes sanctions on Chinese companies, North Korean minister over Ukraine war.
The EU imposed fully fledged sanctions on Dec. 16, including asset freezes and visa bans, on Chinese firms for supplying Russia's military for the war against Ukraine.
The EU imposed fully fledged sanctions on Dec. 16, including asset freezes and visa bans, on Chinese firms for supplying Russia's military for the war against Ukraine.
Reposted by Leonie Allard
Never good when an election is nullified, even under pressure of Russian info opps. What happened in Romania and what’s the way ahead?
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Dispatch from Bucharest: Why has Romanian politics suddenly gone sideways?
Twin shocks—Călin Georgescu’s political rise and the annulment of the November 24 presidential election—have shaken the hitherto complacent centrists in Romania.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
December 16, 2024 at 11:38 PM
Never good when an election is nullified, even under pressure of Russian info opps. What happened in Romania and what’s the way ahead?
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to raise the possibility of deploying European soldiers to Ukraine at the upcoming EU summit on Dec. 18-19, if a ceasefire deal is eventually reached between Russia and Ukraine, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on Dec. 13, citing EU diplomats.
Macron expected to raise possibility of peacekeepers in Ukraine at upcoming EU summit, RFE/RL reports
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to raise the possibility of deploying European soldiers to Ukraine at the upcoming EU leaders' summit on Dec. 18-19, if a ceasefire deal is eventually reac...
kyivindependent.com
December 14, 2024 at 12:51 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to raise the possibility of deploying European soldiers to Ukraine at the upcoming EU summit on Dec. 18-19, if a ceasefire deal is eventually reached between Russia and Ukraine, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on Dec. 13, citing EU diplomats.
Reposted by Leonie Allard
📍 Estonie | Exercice 🇪🇪 #PIKNE ⚡
Dans le domaine aérien:
➡️ Projection de forces depuis la 🇫🇷 vers 🇪🇪.
➡️ Appui de troupes au sol par les Rafale 🇫🇷 déployés en 🇱🇹.
➡️ Projection rapide en coordination avec nos alliés de l’@OTAN_FR
#StrongerTogether
Dans le domaine aérien:
➡️ Projection de forces depuis la 🇫🇷 vers 🇪🇪.
➡️ Appui de troupes au sol par les Rafale 🇫🇷 déployés en 🇱🇹.
➡️ Projection rapide en coordination avec nos alliés de l’@OTAN_FR
#StrongerTogether
December 7, 2024 at 9:02 AM
📍 Estonie | Exercice 🇪🇪 #PIKNE ⚡
Dans le domaine aérien:
➡️ Projection de forces depuis la 🇫🇷 vers 🇪🇪.
➡️ Appui de troupes au sol par les Rafale 🇫🇷 déployés en 🇱🇹.
➡️ Projection rapide en coordination avec nos alliés de l’@OTAN_FR
#StrongerTogether
Dans le domaine aérien:
➡️ Projection de forces depuis la 🇫🇷 vers 🇪🇪.
➡️ Appui de troupes au sol par les Rafale 🇫🇷 déployés en 🇱🇹.
➡️ Projection rapide en coordination avec nos alliés de l’@OTAN_FR
#StrongerTogether
Reposted by Leonie Allard
Tribute from the 🇫🇷 navy to Notre Dame on the day it reopens, from the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier
December 7, 2024 at 12:54 PM
Tribute from the 🇫🇷 navy to Notre Dame on the day it reopens, from the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier
Reposted by Leonie Allard
🚨Just out: my last piece in @foreignaffairs.com with Leo Litra calling for a European coalition to issue security guarantees to Ukraine: a military credible mechanism on the ground is not only possible, it is the only acceptable option in the medium term www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
Ukraine’s Security Now Depends on Europe
A deal to end the war must include ironclad assurances.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 3, 2024 at 9:02 AM
🚨Just out: my last piece in @foreignaffairs.com with Leo Litra calling for a European coalition to issue security guarantees to Ukraine: a military credible mechanism on the ground is not only possible, it is the only acceptable option in the medium term www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
Reposted by Leonie Allard
⚡️France, UK discuss deploying troops to Ukraine for ceasefire monitoring, sources tell RFE/RL.
The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly, noted that these discussions happen in individual capitals, not within the formal NATO structure.
The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly, noted that these discussions happen in individual capitals, not within the formal NATO structure.
France, UK discuss deploying troops to Ukraine for ceasefire monitoring, sources tell RFE/RL
The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly, noted that these discussions happen in individual capitals, not within NATO.
kyivindependent.com
December 3, 2024 at 12:55 AM
⚡️France, UK discuss deploying troops to Ukraine for ceasefire monitoring, sources tell RFE/RL.
The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly, noted that these discussions happen in individual capitals, not within the formal NATO structure.
The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly, noted that these discussions happen in individual capitals, not within the formal NATO structure.
Reposted by Leonie Allard
That’s probably the right way to argue this.
“And there is one Xi Jinping watching very carefully what comes out of this,” he added, in an apparent reference to fears that if Russia is allowed to seize large parts of Ukraine, Xi may feel emboldened to use force against Taiwan.”
“And there is one Xi Jinping watching very carefully what comes out of this,” he added, in an apparent reference to fears that if Russia is allowed to seize large parts of Ukraine, Xi may feel emboldened to use force against Taiwan.”
Nato chief warns Donald Trump of ‘dire threat’ to US if Ukraine pushed into bad peace deal
Mark Rutte says risks to America will increase if China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are empowered
on.ft.com
December 2, 2024 at 7:57 PM
That’s probably the right way to argue this.
“And there is one Xi Jinping watching very carefully what comes out of this,” he added, in an apparent reference to fears that if Russia is allowed to seize large parts of Ukraine, Xi may feel emboldened to use force against Taiwan.”
“And there is one Xi Jinping watching very carefully what comes out of this,” he added, in an apparent reference to fears that if Russia is allowed to seize large parts of Ukraine, Xi may feel emboldened to use force against Taiwan.”