Kirill Shamiev
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kirland.bsky.social
Kirill Shamiev
@kirland.bsky.social
1.7K followers 340 following 24 posts
Civ-mil, public policy & RU politics. PhD in PoliSci. Fellow at @ECFR. Tweets in personal capacity only. Shamiev.org
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ecfr.eu
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners, write @kirland.bsky.social and Vasil Navumau @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42jwgnI
Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
bit.ly
September 13, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ecfrrome.bsky.social
Se i negoziati tra 🇺🇸 e 🇷🇺 dovessero fallire, il ruolo di Lukashenko svanirebbe da un giorno all'altro, le sue concessioni andrebbero sprecate e la sua reputazione con Putin verrebbe danneggiata.
🖊️ @kirland.bsky.social & Vasil Navumau
Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
buff.ly
September 12, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ecfrberlin.bsky.social
Belarussisch-russiche Militärdrills: Zapad 2025 ist nicht nur eine Machtdemonstration, sondern auch Lukaschenkos Versuch, eine Rolle in der europäischen Sicherheitsordnung zu spielen, schreiben @kirland.bsky.social und @vasil-navumau.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/zapa...
Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
ecfr.eu
September 12, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ecfr.eu
Should US–Russia negotiations collapse, Lukashenko’s role would evaporate overnight, his concessions wasted and his standing with Putin damaged, write @kirland.bsky.social and Vasil Navumau
https://bit.ly/42jwgnI
Zapad against the West: How Europe should read the Russian-Belarusian military drills
Zapad 2025 is not only a show of force; it is Lukashenko’s bid to play a role in the emergent European security order as it bargains with Washington over sanctions and prisoners
ecfr.eu
September 11, 2025 at 4:00 PM
kirland.bsky.social
As the full-scale invasion enters its final stage (even radical pro-war Russian groups are talking about an end), the Russian leadership is seeking ways to influence Western perceptions of the war and their calculations regarding the desired outcome. 1/4
September 10, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
meduza.io
The Huffman family thought Russia’s “shared values” visa would be their escape from U.S. “indoctrination.” But their plan hasn’t gone the way they hoped.
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
‘Thrown to the wolves’ How a Texas man moved his family to Russia to escape ‘DEI’ — and ended up on the front lines in Ukraine — Meduza
In the last three years, the Kremlin has doubled down on portraying Russia as a bastion of “traditional values” — a narrative used to justify both the invasion of Ukraine and Vladimir…
meduza.io
July 28, 2025 at 3:52 PM
kirland.bsky.social
Would you like to know why it has been so difficult for Putin's Russia to build a powerful military?
@waterstones.bsky.social has launched a 25% discount on upcoming titles, including my book on Russian military development! 1/4 #WPreorder
July 28, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
#Russia will likely try to keep the #Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains, @kadriliik.bsky.social‬ and @kirland.bsky.social‬ argue in their last commentary.
Read it here ⬇️
Patience and pragmatism: Moscow’s view on the Israel-Iran-US war
Russia will likely try to keep the Iranian regime weak and out of Western reach, hoping to exploit any deal for its own gains.
ecfr.eu
June 25, 2025 at 9:33 PM
kirland.bsky.social
My MA & PhD uni is in the news again: “The repercussions of the American turmoil are being felt in places like Vienna. By mid-May, C.E.U. had recorded a 40 percent increase in applications from American students compared with last year.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/u...
Harvard’s Battle Is Familiar to a University the Right Forced into Exile
www.nytimes.com
June 8, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
rikefranke.bsky.social
Interesting debate on what defence spending adds to your economy

on.ft.com/4jCLJFs How big is the economic dividend from extra defence spending?
How big is the economic dividend from extra defence spending?
UK ministers argue that higher military budgets will spur innovation and lead to long-term productivity gains
on.ft.com
June 5, 2025 at 6:08 AM
kirland.bsky.social
Back from a long research trip to Russia. Insightful professional meetings, and more importantly, human contact and on-the-ground observations. First time back since autumn ‘22, surprisingly little has changed on the streets. My analysis re current RU and negotiations coming soon
May 29, 2025 at 9:44 AM
kirland.bsky.social
What domestic constraints does Russia face in negotiating with Ukraine? Risa Brooks, Margarita Zavadskaya, and I explore this in our new piece on the military’s role in Russian politics. It draws on a unique survey experiment we designed for an academic study.
ecfr.eu ECFR @ecfr.eu · May 21
Russian public opinion often shifts when military leaders challenge Kremlin narratives—whether on Ukraine or China. This highlights the unique influence of Russia’s military elite in shaping national sentiment.
General knowledge: Russian military chiefs, the Russian public and Ukraine and China
When Russian military leaders are thought to oppose government policy, the Russian public appear to give them a sympathetic hearing
bit.ly
May 21, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ecfr.eu
Deploying a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine might seem like a step toward stability. However, without a comprehensive peace agreement and clear mandates, such a move could entangle Europe in a protracted conflict, writes
@kirland.bsky.social
@ecfrwidereurope.bsky.social
Why a Ukraine peacekeeping force could become a trap for Europe
The EU may need to deploy a peacekeeping force to Ukraine. However, without urgent regulatory changes, its member states are unprepared for the risks of direct confrontation with Russia
bit.ly
April 24, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
vfunk.bsky.social
„Russland hat kein Vertrauen darin, dass ausländische Truppen zur Friedenssicherung eingesetzt werden. Ihre Stationierung wird als Gefahr gedeutet und ich würde auch erwarten, dass sie mit Raketen und Drohnen angegriffen werden“, erläuterte @kirland.bsky.social.
March 17, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
hurstpublishers.bsky.social
See our catalogue for more upcoming non-fiction➡️ tinyurl.com/k2bpzrct

Featuring titles from @dankaszeta.bsky.social @kirland.bsky.social @kalathmika.bsky.social
@fieryparticle.bsky.social @irgarner.bsky.social @paulclammer.bsky.social @shuja-jamal.bsky.social @marwecki.bsky.social and many more!
An image of the catalogue cover. This is taken from the cover of 'Orange Sky, Rising Water' and has the same orange background at the top, and a windmill that appears to be sinking into a blue sea. There is white and blue lettering that reads 'Hurst Publishers. Autumn/Winter 2025.' The Hurst logo is at the bottom lefthand corner of the page.
March 10, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ecfr.eu
Trump’s USAID freeze has put 90+ Russian pro-democracy groups and independent media at risk of closure. Europe cannot fully replace the lost funding, but it must step up with targeted support for the most influential organisations. @kirland.bsky.social 📝
Freeze and thaw: USAID withdrawal and the future of Russia’s pro-European civil society
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern…
buff.ly
February 15, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ecfr.eu
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern neighbourhood, writes @kirland.bsky.social 👇
Freeze and thaw: USAID withdrawal and the future of Russia’s pro-European civil society
Donald Trump has frozen USAID. This is bad news for civil society organisations in the Russian democratic community, but Europe has the chance to step up its soft power influence in the eastern…
buff.ly
February 14, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
abarbashin.bsky.social
Yeah folks, it doesn’t look good for us at ridl.io
ichbinilya.bsky.social Ilya Lozovsky @ichbinilya.bsky.social · Feb 11
Riddle Russia, an excellent outlet working in exile, has lost their core grant. They're facing a possible shutdown unless they can come up with an infusion of cash to buy them time to look for new funding.

A decimation of independent Russian media is happening as we speak.

ridl.io/donate/
Donate – Riddle Russia
ridl.io
February 11, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
radchenko.bsky.social
Read this earlier this year and highly recommend that you do, too. Recounts the most quickly-forgotten-about episode of ethnic cleansing in recent memory.
December 19, 2024 at 7:22 AM
kirland.bsky.social
USIP hosted an event with Belarusian, Russian, and Ukrainian youth as part of the Eastern European Youth Dialogue. This news made my Monday and I hope that such initiatives will continue.
December 16, 2024 at 7:52 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
mikeeckel.bsky.social
Putin gets a grand welcome by Tokayev et. al. as he arrives in Astana for an official visit.
November 27, 2024 at 12:48 PM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
So glad people in Lebanon can finally return to their villages. A side note from another region: According to the sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto, about a third of Ukrainians - more than 10 Million people - are internally displaced
matnashed.bsky.social Mat Nashed @matnashed.bsky.social · Nov 27
People are returning in the thousands to their villages in Lebanon.

Land is not just property: It envelopes memory, community and identity.

In this unstable region, the concept of home transcends space and time.

It is existential. Personal. Political.
November 27, 2024 at 9:20 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
lucyjgaynor.bsky.social
🚨#ICC Prosecutor announces application for an arrest warrant for Senior General and Acting President of #Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing, Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services 🚨

Suspected responsibility for #CrimesAgainstHumanity for the deportation & persecution of #Rohingya from Aug - Dec 2017
November 27, 2024 at 9:08 AM
Reposted by Kirill Shamiev
ichbinilya.bsky.social
On the topic of last week's internet cable outages in the Baltic Sea, an interesting point by @katjabego.bsky.social for @meduza.io.
November 26, 2024 at 10:13 AM