Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
@kevinkuciapinski.bsky.social
Supports Dr. T.S. Kelso and CelesTrak, the world's first source for orbital element sets and related software and educational materials.
CelesTrak is a 501(c)3 Nonprofit.
CelesTrak is a 501(c)3 Nonprofit.
NOAA Update:
G1-G3 Still Likely Tonight, 12 Nov, with G4 Still Possible
published: Thursday, November 13, 2025 02:16 UTC
Final CME arrived and passing over Earth now. Conditions generally weakening, but variable.
www.spaceweather.gov
G1-G3 Still Likely Tonight, 12 Nov, with G4 Still Possible
published: Thursday, November 13, 2025 02:16 UTC
Final CME arrived and passing over Earth now. Conditions generally weakening, but variable.
www.spaceweather.gov
November 13, 2025 at 4:40 AM
NOAA Update:
G1-G3 Still Likely Tonight, 12 Nov, with G4 Still Possible
published: Thursday, November 13, 2025 02:16 UTC
Final CME arrived and passing over Earth now. Conditions generally weakening, but variable.
www.spaceweather.gov
G1-G3 Still Likely Tonight, 12 Nov, with G4 Still Possible
published: Thursday, November 13, 2025 02:16 UTC
Final CME arrived and passing over Earth now. Conditions generally weakening, but variable.
www.spaceweather.gov
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
☀️ ESA actively monitoring severe space weather event
On 11 November, an intense solar flare was observed, followed by a coronal mass ejection estimated to arrive at Earth in the late evening today or in the early morning tomorrow.
www.esa.int/Space_Safety...
On 11 November, an intense solar flare was observed, followed by a coronal mass ejection estimated to arrive at Earth in the late evening today or in the early morning tomorrow.
www.esa.int/Space_Safety...
November 12, 2025 at 2:45 PM
☀️ ESA actively monitoring severe space weather event
On 11 November, an intense solar flare was observed, followed by a coronal mass ejection estimated to arrive at Earth in the late evening today or in the early morning tomorrow.
www.esa.int/Space_Safety...
On 11 November, an intense solar flare was observed, followed by a coronal mass ejection estimated to arrive at Earth in the late evening today or in the early morning tomorrow.
www.esa.int/Space_Safety...
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
With the latest dropout of 18 SDS GP data, the mean age of the data is now over 2.4 days old and almost nothing has been updated in the past day. The result is that 3,782 objects with SupGP data have an 18 SDS GP RMS difference of over 25 km--7 more than 10,000 km RMS.
November 10, 2025 at 8:23 AM
With the latest dropout of 18 SDS GP data, the mean age of the data is now over 2.4 days old and almost nothing has been updated in the past day. The result is that 3,782 objects with SupGP data have an 18 SDS GP RMS difference of over 25 km--7 more than 10,000 km RMS.
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
NOAA is reporting and predicting elevated geomagnetic activity: celestrak.org/SpaceData/. Expect to see increased prediction errors in all LEO orbital data.
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 AM
NOAA is reporting and predicting elevated geomagnetic activity: celestrak.org/SpaceData/. Expect to see increased prediction errors in all LEO orbital data.
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
Measurements by PI9RD show that Dragonfly is object 65729 (1998-067XH).
Frequency: near 437.375 MHz.
@tskelso.bsky.social @planet4589.bsky.social
Frequency: near 437.375 MHz.
@tskelso.bsky.social @planet4589.bsky.social
October 9, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Measurements by PI9RD show that Dragonfly is object 65729 (1998-067XH).
Frequency: near 437.375 MHz.
@tskelso.bsky.social @planet4589.bsky.social
Frequency: near 437.375 MHz.
@tskelso.bsky.social @planet4589.bsky.social
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
🚀 22 days to go until #SWFsummit25 — Industry Insight & National Leadership.
The 7th Summit for Space Sustainability will bring together global leaders to shape the future of space through policy, strategy, and commercial innovation.
📍 Paris | 🗓️ Oct 22–23, 2025
The 7th Summit for Space Sustainability will bring together global leaders to shape the future of space through policy, strategy, and commercial innovation.
📍 Paris | 🗓️ Oct 22–23, 2025
October 2, 2025 at 2:34 AM
🚀 22 days to go until #SWFsummit25 — Industry Insight & National Leadership.
The 7th Summit for Space Sustainability will bring together global leaders to shape the future of space through policy, strategy, and commercial innovation.
📍 Paris | 🗓️ Oct 22–23, 2025
The 7th Summit for Space Sustainability will bring together global leaders to shape the future of space through policy, strategy, and commercial innovation.
📍 Paris | 🗓️ Oct 22–23, 2025
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
🚀 SWF’s @vsamsondc.bsky.social will join experts in Bengaluru on Oct. 6–8, 2025 for India–US Cooperation on Global Security, hosted by CISAC & NIAS.
She’ll speak on space security, SSA & India–US cooperation pathways 🌍✨
#SWF #SpaceSecurity #SpaceDiplomacy
She’ll speak on space security, SSA & India–US cooperation pathways 🌍✨
#SWF #SpaceSecurity #SpaceDiplomacy
October 3, 2025 at 2:11 AM
🚀 SWF’s @vsamsondc.bsky.social will join experts in Bengaluru on Oct. 6–8, 2025 for India–US Cooperation on Global Security, hosted by CISAC & NIAS.
She’ll speak on space security, SSA & India–US cooperation pathways 🌍✨
#SWF #SpaceSecurity #SpaceDiplomacy
She’ll speak on space security, SSA & India–US cooperation pathways 🌍✨
#SWF #SpaceSecurity #SpaceDiplomacy
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
October 6, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
Thanks to all who made #IAC2025 a success. It was a very engaging and productive event. The #CelesTrak paper & presentation, "Understanding and Mitigating Data Limitations for Conjunction Assessments" by T.S. Kelso & Kevin Kuciapinski are available at celestrak.org/publications...
#IAF #SDA #SSA
#IAF #SDA #SSA
October 6, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Thanks to all who made #IAC2025 a success. It was a very engaging and productive event. The #CelesTrak paper & presentation, "Understanding and Mitigating Data Limitations for Conjunction Assessments" by T.S. Kelso & Kevin Kuciapinski are available at celestrak.org/publications...
#IAF #SDA #SSA
#IAF #SDA #SSA
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
You can find the link to our paper and presentation at IAC 2025 on CelesTrak at: celestrak.org/publications.... Please let me know if you have any questions.
October 1, 2025 at 10:09 PM
You can find the link to our paper and presentation at IAC 2025 on CelesTrak at: celestrak.org/publications.... Please let me know if you have any questions.
Always nice to run into longtime CelesTrak friends like Space ISAC
@tskelso.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SpaceISAC #IAC2025 #SSA #SpaceFlightSafety #STM
@tskelso.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SpaceISAC #IAC2025 #SSA #SpaceFlightSafety #STM
October 3, 2025 at 4:48 AM
Always nice to run into longtime CelesTrak friends like Space ISAC
@tskelso.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SpaceISAC #IAC2025 #SSA #SpaceFlightSafety #STM
@tskelso.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SpaceISAC #IAC2025 #SSA #SpaceFlightSafety #STM
Thank you for the very neat photo MITRE!
#CelesTrak #SSA #CDM #SpaceFlightSafety #IAC2025
@tskelso.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SSA #CDM #SpaceFlightSafety #IAC2025
@tskelso.bsky.social
October 2, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Thank you for the very neat photo MITRE!
#CelesTrak #SSA #CDM #SpaceFlightSafety #IAC2025
@tskelso.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SSA #CDM #SpaceFlightSafety #IAC2025
@tskelso.bsky.social
It was a pleasure for CelesTrak to catch up with Victoria at Secure World Foundation at IAC 2025
@tskelso.bsky.social
@vsamsondc.bsky.social
@swfoundation.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SWF #SSA #SpaceFlightSafety #IAC2025
@tskelso.bsky.social
@vsamsondc.bsky.social
@swfoundation.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SWF #SSA #SpaceFlightSafety #IAC2025
October 2, 2025 at 3:16 AM
It was a pleasure for CelesTrak to catch up with Victoria at Secure World Foundation at IAC 2025
@tskelso.bsky.social
@vsamsondc.bsky.social
@swfoundation.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SWF #SSA #SpaceFlightSafety #IAC2025
@tskelso.bsky.social
@vsamsondc.bsky.social
@swfoundation.bsky.social
#CelesTrak #SWF #SSA #SpaceFlightSafety #IAC2025
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
6/ Even reasonably current 18 SDS GP data can be significantly off if it has not detected recent or ongoing maneuvers. Here are the current top ten--all Starlink--that are thousands of kilometers off: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
September 6, 2025 at 8:28 PM
6/ Even reasonably current 18 SDS GP data can be significantly off if it has not detected recent or ongoing maneuvers. Here are the current top ten--all Starlink--that are thousands of kilometers off: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
5/ And if you look at the SupGP vs. GP Comparisons for Starlink: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen..., reverse-sorted by GP age, you will see the RMS difference for STARLINK-33890 is huge (as expected): 13,099 km. No idea why STARLINK-31318 isn't being tracked. Just one more thing to ponder.
September 6, 2025 at 8:14 PM
5/ And if you look at the SupGP vs. GP Comparisons for Starlink: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen..., reverse-sorted by GP age, you will see the RMS difference for STARLINK-33890 is huge (as expected): 13,099 km. No idea why STARLINK-31318 isn't being tracked. Just one more thing to ponder.
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
4/ These are 2 more examples of how SupGP data can help. Even large satellites in known orbits can be lost. Satellite operators are encouraged to share their independent tracking data to produce SupGP. Remember, if the 18 SDS GP data is old, so is their SP data. You may be flying blind to others.
September 6, 2025 at 7:54 PM
4/ These are 2 more examples of how SupGP data can help. Even large satellites in known orbits can be lost. Satellite operators are encouraged to share their independent tracking data to produce SupGP. Remember, if the 18 SDS GP data is old, so is their SP data. You may be flying blind to others.
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
3/ For STARLINK-33890, the latest SupGP data is also 0.40 days old: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... Its graph shows it performing stable orbit-raising , as expected: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... It seems to be untracked since orbit-raising began.
September 6, 2025 at 7:50 PM
3/ For STARLINK-33890, the latest SupGP data is also 0.40 days old: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... Its graph shows it performing stable orbit-raising , as expected: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... It seems to be untracked since orbit-raising began.
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
2/ For STARLINK-31318, the latest SupGP data is 0.40 days old: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... Its graph shows it in a stable station-kept orbit: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... This data is freely and easily available to all users.
September 6, 2025 at 7:45 PM
2/ For STARLINK-31318, the latest SupGP data is 0.40 days old: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... Its graph shows it in a stable station-kept orbit: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... This data is freely and easily available to all users.
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
1/ CelesTrak has a page that shows the active satellites with the oldest 18 SDS GP data: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... The second page includes 2 Starlink satellites: 58885/STARLINK-31318, GP data 17.64 days old & 65332/STARLINK-33890, GP data 10.32 days old. Both have current SupGP data.
September 6, 2025 at 7:41 PM
1/ CelesTrak has a page that shows the active satellites with the oldest 18 SDS GP data: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen.... The second page includes 2 Starlink satellites: 58885/STARLINK-31318, GP data 17.64 days old & 65332/STARLINK-33890, GP data 10.32 days old. Both have current SupGP data.
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
There continues to be an issue with the update frequency of the 18 SDS GP data, as seen in the graph below. Over the past several days, we have only seen one major update per day (zoom to 1m): celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
August 15, 2025 at 9:07 PM
There continues to be an issue with the update frequency of the 18 SDS GP data, as seen in the graph below. Over the past several days, we have only seen one major update per day (zoom to 1m): celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
It appears that when a cargo ship like Tianzhou-9 (64786) docks with a space station like Tianhe (48274), it stops getting independent TLEs and someone at Space Force types a command of the form "tie 64786 to 48274" so that 64786 just gets copies of 48274's TLEs. BUT....
July 26, 2025 at 5:06 PM
It appears that when a cargo ship like Tianzhou-9 (64786) docks with a space station like Tianhe (48274), it stops getting independent TLEs and someone at Space Force types a command of the form "tie 64786 to 48274" so that 64786 just gets copies of 48274's TLEs. BUT....
Reposted by Dr. Kevin Kuciapinski
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 26 satellites from the Starlink Group 15-9 launch (2025-129) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB on 2025-06-17 at 03:36:50 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/06/16/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
June 17, 2025 at 3:17 PM
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 26 satellites from the Starlink Group 15-9 launch (2025-129) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB on 2025-06-17 at 03:36:50 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/06/16/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
Congratulations Dr. Thomas Schildknecht!
Winner of the 2024 Space Data Association's
T.S. Kelso Space Safety Award!
@SDAspacedata
#SpaceFlightSafety #SSA
Winner of the 2024 Space Data Association's
T.S. Kelso Space Safety Award!
@SDAspacedata
#SpaceFlightSafety #SSA
June 6, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Congratulations Dr. Thomas Schildknecht!
Winner of the 2024 Space Data Association's
T.S. Kelso Space Safety Award!
@SDAspacedata
#SpaceFlightSafety #SSA
Winner of the 2024 Space Data Association's
T.S. Kelso Space Safety Award!
@SDAspacedata
#SpaceFlightSafety #SSA