Karsten Junius
@karstenjunius.bsky.social
Chief Economist/ Head Economic & Strategy Research, Bank J. Safra Sarasin, ex IMF, ex Deka, ex Kiel Institute.
Zurich & Frankfurt. All views are my own.
#ECB, #SNB, #eurozone, #Germany, #Switzerland
Zurich & Frankfurt. All views are my own.
#ECB, #SNB, #eurozone, #Germany, #Switzerland
#Swiss #inflation remains at 0.2% yoy - slightly below expectations. Details are ok. Domestic inflation is stable at 0.6% yoy indicating that there are no deflationary processes. Imported inflation is negative but far above levels in 2015 and 2020. No reason for #negative #rates!
October 2, 2025 at 6:44 AM
#Swiss #inflation remains at 0.2% yoy - slightly below expectations. Details are ok. Domestic inflation is stable at 0.6% yoy indicating that there are no deflationary processes. Imported inflation is negative but far above levels in 2015 and 2020. No reason for #negative #rates!
The #SNB reports CHF 5.06 bl #FX interventions for Q2 - the first quarter it purchased FX since 1Q22. Most likely it tried to smooth FX volatility after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. Yesterday the SNB and the US treasury agreed to rule out competitive FX devaluations
September 30, 2025 at 7:56 AM
SNB President #Schlegel has just announced that the SNB will start publishing #minutes four weeks after their quarterly policy decisions. I welcome the decision as a step of the SNB to communicate more openly with financial markets and the broader #public. Minutes help to provide deeper (1/2)
September 10, 2025 at 12:33 PM
#Consumer #inflation expectations as surveyed by the #ECB are picking up for the next 12 months and 3 years. Unclear whether that is trade war related or not. No reason to panic but also no reason to cut policy rates by 50bp next time. Several cuts by 25bp if needed are safer.
April 29, 2025 at 9:56 AM
#Consumer #inflation expectations as surveyed by the #ECB are picking up for the next 12 months and 3 years. Unclear whether that is trade war related or not. No reason to panic but also no reason to cut policy rates by 50bp next time. Several cuts by 25bp if needed are safer.
#SNB cuts policy rate by 25bp as expected. Importantly, it argues that the cut ensures that monetary policy remains #APPROPRIATE given low inflationary pressure. It also increased the inflation projection to 0.8% for Q3 &Q4 2027. Both indicate that no rate cut is likely in June.
March 20, 2025 at 8:50 AM
#SNB cuts policy rate by 25bp as expected. Importantly, it argues that the cut ensures that monetary policy remains #APPROPRIATE given low inflationary pressure. It also increased the inflation projection to 0.8% for Q3 &Q4 2027. Both indicate that no rate cut is likely in June.
Goods news from Eurostat: Final February #inflation revised down to 2.3% from 2.4% and most importantly services inflation falls to 3.7%. In line with that also labour cost growth declined to 3.7% for 4Q24 from 4.5% in Q3. It really seems that we are on the right path
March 19, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Goods news from Eurostat: Final February #inflation revised down to 2.3% from 2.4% and most importantly services inflation falls to 3.7%. In line with that also labour cost growth declined to 3.7% for 4Q24 from 4.5% in Q3. It really seems that we are on the right path
We expect the # SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp on Thursday in order to anchor inflation expectations at a higher level and as higher long rates tighten financial conditions. Markets price a 73% probability for a cut.
More details in our preview:
publications.jsafrasarasin.com/publ-dl-ch/d...
More details in our preview:
publications.jsafrasarasin.com/publ-dl-ch/d...
publications.jsafrasarasin.com
March 18, 2025 at 8:30 AM
We expect the # SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp on Thursday in order to anchor inflation expectations at a higher level and as higher long rates tighten financial conditions. Markets price a 73% probability for a cut.
More details in our preview:
publications.jsafrasarasin.com/publ-dl-ch/d...
More details in our preview:
publications.jsafrasarasin.com/publ-dl-ch/d...
Another stimulating #ecbwatcher conference. Also feels like a class reunion again
March 12, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Another stimulating #ecbwatcher conference. Also feels like a class reunion again
#Swiss #inflation in January came in as expected: -0.1% mom and +0.4% yoy. Falling electricity prices were the main factor for the declining price level. The data supports our view that another rate #SNB cut by 25bp would be justified in March.
February 13, 2025 at 8:15 AM
#Swiss #inflation in January came in as expected: -0.1% mom and +0.4% yoy. Falling electricity prices were the main factor for the declining price level. The data supports our view that another rate #SNB cut by 25bp would be justified in March.
#ECB estimates of the #neutral policy rate of 1.75-2.25% confirm market expecations and don't stay in the way of our forecast of further 100bp rate cuts. Yet, they come with so many caveats (model/parameter uncertainty, misspecification) that one feels almost encouraged not to use them.
Updated estimates of the euro area natural interest rate remain broadly unchanged since the end of 2023 following a modest post-pandemic increase, our latest #EconomicBulletin finds.
Read more here www.ecb.europa.eu/press/econom...
Read more here www.ecb.europa.eu/press/econom...
February 7, 2025 at 1:16 PM
#SNB cut its policy rate by 50bp as we expected. Thereby, its new chairman, #Schlegel, shows that he is as determined to fight too low inflation as his predecessor. The new inflation forecast is below the previous one for 2025 but a bit higher for 2026. Notably no forward guidance was given.
December 12, 2024 at 8:44 AM
Lenzspitze (4293m, middle) and Dom (4545m, left). Längfluh restaurant and Fee glacier below. While not the best conditions for skiing these days, the views are still spectacular.
@Saas-Fee
@Saas-Fee
December 9, 2024 at 9:39 AM
Lenzspitze (4293m, middle) and Dom (4545m, left). Längfluh restaurant and Fee glacier below. While not the best conditions for skiing these days, the views are still spectacular.
@Saas-Fee
@Saas-Fee
We have just revised our #SNB call and now expect a cut by #50bp in #December, followed by two 25bp cuts in to a level of 0% in June. #Inflation simply is too low and the economy is growing below potential such that an expansionary policy is needed
publications.jsafrasarasin.com/publ-dl-ch/d...
publications.jsafrasarasin.com/publ-dl-ch/d...
publications.jsafrasarasin.com
December 3, 2024 at 8:57 AM
We have just revised our #SNB call and now expect a cut by #50bp in #December, followed by two 25bp cuts in to a level of 0% in June. #Inflation simply is too low and the economy is growing below potential such that an expansionary policy is needed
publications.jsafrasarasin.com/publ-dl-ch/d...
publications.jsafrasarasin.com/publ-dl-ch/d...
#Swiss #Inflation remained weak in November matching consensus expectations of 0.7% yoy. (core 0.9% yoy /CPI ex rent 0.1% yoy). This confirms that the inflationary pressure is very weak and that the #SNB shouldn't hesitate to cut ist policy rate decisively in the coming quarters.
December 3, 2024 at 7:52 AM
#Swiss #Inflation remained weak in November matching consensus expectations of 0.7% yoy. (core 0.9% yoy /CPI ex rent 0.1% yoy). This confirms that the inflationary pressure is very weak and that the #SNB shouldn't hesitate to cut ist policy rate decisively in the coming quarters.
The #mortgage #reference rate remained unchanged in Q4. Still #lending rates are falling further in #Switzerland. Now it is all but certain that the reference rate will be cut in March such that rents can be adjusted down in August. Our inflation forecast remains at 0.4% for 2025
December 2, 2024 at 8:31 AM
The #mortgage #reference rate remained unchanged in Q4. Still #lending rates are falling further in #Switzerland. Now it is all but certain that the reference rate will be cut in March such that rents can be adjusted down in August. Our inflation forecast remains at 0.4% for 2025
#Swiss GDP in Q3 remains remarkably stable w 0.4%qoq & 0.2% qoq sport-event adjusted, considering the weak international environment. Strong #private consumption partly compensated falling goods exports. Only #investment spending is worrying as it fell in 5 out of last 6 quarters
November 29, 2024 at 9:12 AM
#Swiss GDP in Q3 remains remarkably stable w 0.4%qoq & 0.2% qoq sport-event adjusted, considering the weak international environment. Strong #private consumption partly compensated falling goods exports. Only #investment spending is worrying as it fell in 5 out of last 6 quarters
It is not all falling apart in the #euro area: At least, not yet. #Economic #Sentiment in November improved in the #retail and industrial sectors. #Price components increased as well in most sectors. Possibly rising real incomes stabilize it by increasing household spending.
November 28, 2024 at 10:17 AM
It is not all falling apart in the #euro area: At least, not yet. #Economic #Sentiment in November improved in the #retail and industrial sectors. #Price components increased as well in most sectors. Possibly rising real incomes stabilize it by increasing household spending.
As always very interesting interview with @isabelschnabel.bsky.social even though this time clearly too hawkish in my view.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/...
Interview with Bloomberg
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purch...
www.ecb.europa.eu
November 27, 2024 at 10:28 AM
As always very interesting interview with @isabelschnabel.bsky.social even though this time clearly too hawkish in my view.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/...
Three reasons for US-small caps:
1) High #rates hurt small caps less than in the past as they are no more #leveraged than the S&P median stock.
2) Due to higher domestic earnings lower corporate #taxes benefit small more than large caps as the 2017 tax cuts showed.
3) The smaller foreign exposure
1) High #rates hurt small caps less than in the past as they are no more #leveraged than the S&P median stock.
2) Due to higher domestic earnings lower corporate #taxes benefit small more than large caps as the 2017 tax cuts showed.
3) The smaller foreign exposure
November 25, 2024 at 12:57 PM
Three reasons for US-small caps:
1) High #rates hurt small caps less than in the past as they are no more #leveraged than the S&P median stock.
2) Due to higher domestic earnings lower corporate #taxes benefit small more than large caps as the 2017 tax cuts showed.
3) The smaller foreign exposure
1) High #rates hurt small caps less than in the past as they are no more #leveraged than the S&P median stock.
2) Due to higher domestic earnings lower corporate #taxes benefit small more than large caps as the 2017 tax cuts showed.
3) The smaller foreign exposure
Hello Bluesky! Travelling back from the #SNB #watcher conference might be a good opportunity for my #first tweet here. The conference didn’t change my expectation that we see 3 25bp #cuts down to a 0.25% policy rate by June. Yet I found it remarkable how much the SNB talked down market expectations.
November 22, 2024 at 10:11 PM
Hello Bluesky! Travelling back from the #SNB #watcher conference might be a good opportunity for my #first tweet here. The conference didn’t change my expectation that we see 3 25bp #cuts down to a 0.25% policy rate by June. Yet I found it remarkable how much the SNB talked down market expectations.